U.S. Presidential Election 2020

I suppose one small crumb of comfort is that if he does win this time, he can’t run again.

At this point I wouldn’t even take that for granted.

I’m just waiting for Kanye to declare a resounding victory.

I suppose one small crumb of comfort is that if he does win this time, he can’t run again.

They could always try to repeal the 22nd amendment which after all is relatively new or have him do a Putin next time round run as VP and then have the president resign and hand over power (its not clear whether that is blocked by the 22nd amendment or not).
More likely though it will be for one of his kids to carry on.

I was accused of being a terrible person when I wished him ill as he flirted with Caroni a few weeks back – bet you all wish I’d had my way now don’t you!

Tbf you wished him dead after a prolonged period of suffering and pain. The second bit was the issue most folk had with it..

But certainly we’d all be better off now if he’d shuffled of this mortal coil..I’d change my mind if he loses as I still want to see him in chains..

Just like the Neanderthal 40k years ago we are being swept off the plains by the new species of Homo Sociapath.

I’m not joking either

People have been saying that same thing for centuries!

Struggling to follow today. Crap signal. 😕

Any good news?

People have been saying that same thing for centuries!

…but none of those people were Neanderthals.

Makes you think.

Any good news?

Aye, Rentons getting an ebike.

Any good news?

Biden still favourite – just nowhere near as much as on Monday.

Wisconsin either way will be close enough to allow a candidate to have a recount.

😳 Was the other way around, and he bet on him to win.

Shite 🙁 I was happy there for a bit 🙁

By my maths, if each of them wins each state in which they’re currently ahead you end up with Biden on 255 and Trump on 283.

I’m trying to follow the New York Times site, at the same time as working.

They’ve got Biden 227 – Trump 213.

Biden to, sort of confidently take Nevada (6) Arizona (11) Wisconsin (10).

Trump to take equally sort of confidentially take Georgia (16) N. Carolina (15) Pennsylania (20)

So… Biden 254 and Trump 264.

Alaska is a Republican heartland, that’s 3 more.

254 to 267

Michigan are the king makers. On my screen it’s 2.40m votes to Trump, 2.38, to Biden with 14% of votes left to be counted and as it’s usually the urban areas and postal votes last to be be counted, it’s **** close.

Squeaky bum time.

Any good news?

So two things:

1) Biden is well on his way to flipping MI & WI (in addition to AZ & #NE02) and is doing well enough in PA's completed counties to be on track to win there
2) Polls (esp. at district-level) have rarely led us more astray & it's going to take a long time to unpack

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 4, 2020

Any good news?

If it’s close Biden has it. After all…

“We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics” Joe Biden

This is how the map is looking now. Biden looks like a solid favourite to take Wi and Mi. Biden has a decent chance at also getting Pa and Ga. It’s not impossible for Trump to win, but he’d need to win Mi, Pa, Ga, and NC.

If Trump does win who the hell will take polls seriously ever again?

There’s about 700k votes left to be counted in Michigan, Biden needs 27.5k of them more than Trump to win because unless there’s a surprise in any of the states with more than 90% of votes counted, both need Mich to win.

Unless, Pennsylvania shocks, Biden is 600k votes behind with 1.2m votes left to be counted… it would be a hell of a change in course though.

The other worry for Biden, Nevada and Arizona are currently ‘his’ but they’ve only counted about 85% of the votes in each. Whereas North Carolina and Georgia are pretty much nailed on for Trump

“We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics” Joe Biden

Spot the Trump supporter.

Biden looks like a solid favourite to take Wi and Mi

Really? He’s behind in Michigan.

Spot the Trump supporter.

£100 on Agent Orange!

There’s about 700k votes left to be counted in Michigan, Biden needs 27.5k of them more than Trump to win because unless there’s a surprise in any of the states with more than 90% of votes counted, both need Mich to win.

wayne county (detroit) has only counted 64% @ 414,169 v 194,570 so if that carries on 2:1 it should see Joe over the line in Michigan.

The other worry for Biden, Nevada and Arizona are currently ‘his’ but they’ve only counted about 85% of the votes in each.

The remaining ballots are (I think) postal ballots, which are heavily in favour of Biden.

Unless, Pennsylvania shocks, Biden is 600k votes behind with 1.2m votes left to be counted… it would be a hell of a change in course though.

As above, the remaining ballots are postal which are massively in Biden’s favour. PA is still a toss-up.

£100 on Agent Orange!

To be fair, you were also betting on the GOP flipping the House, so it was a pretty ambitious bet.

Dems failing miserably to take the Senate means that we’re just in for another four-year shitshow regardless of who wins the top job.

wayne county (detroit) has only counted 64% @ 414,169 v 194,570 so if that carries on 2:1 it should see Joe over the line in Michigan.

That’s reassuring, It does seem to be the case whoever wins there, wins.

If Trump does win who the hell will take polls seriously ever again?

I think that ship sailed a while ago, even with Trumps likely defeat.

To be fair, you were also betting on the GOP flipping the House, so it was a pretty ambitious bet.

This is true. Trying to make it interesting. Could only get 2:1 on Trump winning. Not the fabled 50:1.

Pennsylvania shocks, Biden is 600k votes behind with 1.2m votes left to be counted

That would make it necessary for Biden to win more than 50% of the votes not yet counted. And according to the Guardian’s map the counties not yet declared are either Biden or very strongly Biden.

still 27k in it in Michigan.

If Trump does win who the hell will take polls seriously ever again?

I think part of the recent jonathan pie thing was interesting when he said why would anyone come out at a Trump supporter when they know they would just get nailed on twitter, by some friends or family and the general more left leaning public. They say nothing and just vote in private.

if Michigan does turn blue, does biden demand a halt to the counts ?

That would make it necessary for Biden to win more than 50% of the votes not yet counted. And according to the Guardian’s map the counties not yet declared are either Biden or very strongly Biden.

Over 75%.

Of course. As soon as he’s ahead, no further ballots are legitimate.

That would make it necessary for Biden to win more than 50% of the votes not yet counted.

More than 75% surely?

If he’s 600k behind, of the 1.2m uncounted he needs to win 600k to draw level and then more than 50% of the remaining 600k, so more than 900 k out of the 1.2m

Really? He’s behind in Michigan.

He’s behind (or has been behind) in a lot of states but that’s partly down to geography with rural counties getting their votes counted before the urban ones. Once the latter come into the picture the gap narrows and/or Biden moves ahead of Trump. It’s worked the other way as well.

Georgia is interesting as the main counties left to declare are clustered around Atlanta and are Democrat leaning so although Trump has a lead of around 100,000 votes there’s still maybe 250,000 votes to be counted.

We tend to forget just how big some of these states are, often the size of England or even the UK, and they’ve just as disparate an electorate as you’d expect if looking at England – a bit like saying Cumbria has declared their count but we are waiting on Merseyside.

Pennsylvania is looking very much Republican at the moment, there’s been little shift in the last couple of counties declaring but there’s still 1.75m votes to count.

down to 21k in michigan (no change in detroit count)

why would anyone come out at a Trump supporter when they know they would just get nailed on twitter, by some friends or family and the general more left leaning public. They say nothing and just vote in private.

Like our Secret Tory Voters?

If Trump does win who the hell will take polls seriously ever again?

Polls put Trump at about a 10% chance to win. If he squeaks out a narrow win, that would be consistent with the polls.

That 10% included a 70% chance that Biden would win Florida. Once Trump won Florida (which is not a surprising result), Trump’s odds improved massively. Being ahead in NC also helped massively.

However, Biden looks fairly strong in WI and MI. Trump has to win one of those two to have any realistic chance. Trump is doing better than expected, but the results are still within what the polls said was possible.

15k

We tend to forget just how big some of these states are, often the size of England or even the UK,

Christ, some of them are as big as Texas!!