U.S. Presidential Election 2020

Will we end up with Bush style recounts?

The 2nd district congress of Nebraska single electoral college vote going to Biden is actually huge! Without it we were heading for a potential 269-269 tie. Now that scenario falls to Biden.

down to 27k in Michigan

258 with Maine? But yeah Michigan looks like the state closest to flipping with a narrow Trump margin at present, and only 15% of votes left to count…

It is amusing watching the Wisconsin results – many of these places I know because I have family in or near them!

Watching CNN live. Wisconsin – Biden is ahead now and small margin widening. Michigan Biden is getting closer and closer.

It’s because mail in votes are predominantly from Dem counties with big mail or tend to be urban/dem.

This is why Trump wants the count stopped. Except in Arizona where it is edging his way

this is unbelievably tense!

You’re right, I’d missed those two in my adding up. You’ve chered me up. 🙂

Edit: with Nevada, Winsconsin and Michegan it’s 270, right? Fingers crossed.

Except in Arizona where it is edging his way

It is?!? *******

Wisconsin is really close, just 0.22% with Biden currently ahead. 381k votes yet to be counted. That’s two counties: Kenosha and Brown – Kenosha is traditionally Democrat but went with Trump in 2016, Brown is traditionally Republican.

Will we end up with Bush style recounts?

Looking at how close some are definitely.
Or at least court cases about them.

Michigan now tied and there's every reason to think the remaining votes will be pretty blue. https://t.co/yYGNcrd0AZ

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020

It is?!? *******

Dont believe so but it was one where he did want the counting to continue.
Basically where he is ahead STOP NOW.
Where he is behind then keep counting.

Of course I do. But lets not pretend this is a ringing endorsement of Biden and what he represents. Its nothing less than a disaster for the democrats.

Given that Biden may well win, you have a curious definition of “disaster”.

I mostly agree with “disaster”.

Biden was chosen entirely on his appeal to Trumps base/swing voters. Old, White, Male etc.

They went into this against a President who has the lowest approval rating in decades, lower than Nixon, lower then Truman.

Add into the mix a Pandemic that’s killed 260k Americans, is the headline story in the news for 10 months leading up to the Election when nearly 60% of Americans and wiped out his main policy of job creation.

Now, it might turn out that Biden has actually done better than it seems at the moment, by the time they count the absentee ballots, the post votes and all the early votes he might have actually taken some more swing states and even a Republican heartland, but at the moment he hasn’t.

If the best they can come out of this situation is a lame duck, 1 term President, they will have only bought 4 years before the next Trump comes, he might even try to run again.

Everytime I think of rural Wisconsin I think of the guy from Making a murderer, not the sharpest pencil. Which is a concern

But then think of urbane, urban, LBGT sympathetic, Milwaukee resident – Jeffrey Dahmer and feel more confident. I bet he voted Democrat

If a South American country behaved like the US, the CIA would be looking to destabilise it and move in their own puppet leader

molgrips

It is amusing watching the Wisconsin results – many of these places I know because I have family in or near them!

Molly’s cousins Dwayne, Chuck and Cletus on their way to vote earlier

If a South American country behaved like the US, the CIA would be looking to destabilise it and move in their own puppet leader

Isn’t that Russia’s job nowadays?

Why is the FT reporting Biden is leading 238 v 213 whereas the BBC reporting 224 v 213?

It’s been like that for 2hrs

It’s because Arizona (and possibly others) isn’t formally declared but has been called by some of the press. So it depends who you’re listening to.

Do we have any guesses as to when this will start to look “done”?

The suspense of this is killing me…

The guardian have the same, as said above its because the associated press called arizona while others haven’t.

Fadda – depends on whether we need Pennsylvania to finish

It’s been like that for 2hrs

Think this is explained by the Guardian.
They have the 238 and have a comment saying its because Associated Press (which they use) have called Arizona for Biden but other outlets havent yet.

he might even try to run again

Is it possible that the only thing that will stop Trump running, and winning, in 2024 is the chance that he may be in prison by then?

FT has probably called Arizona for Biden and Maine 3:1 for Biden

Homo Sapiens as we know them are basically facing an E.L.E    Just like the Neanderthal 40k years ago we are being swept off the plains by the new species of Homo Sociapath.

I’m not joking either – though obviously Neanderthals and Homo Sapien were different species there is evidence of Iinterbreeding. Either way the mnore peaceful Neanderthals were driven to extinction by the violent, intelligent and selfish Homo Sapien. Now our race has evolved (if you can call it that) again and the top dog is clear to see.

For all us Neanderthals, well our days are numbered.

Biden 4/11 now, Trump 3/1 and drifting. Come on!

It’s nuts that he already has over 2m more votes and likely that lead will increase, but victory is far from certain :-/

Is it possible that the only thing that will stop Trump running, and winning, in 2024 is the chance that he may be in prison by then?

Surely his diet of Big Macs washed down with cans of coke means his Elvis moment awaits before too long?

As long as China Joe or Sleepy Biden does not win the world will be at peace.

From Fivethirtyeight.com:

Looks like votes from Brown and Kenosha counties have been added to the tallies in Wisconsin, and Biden’s lead over Trump is now at 0.6 percentage points, based on about a 21,000-vote margin, according to ABC News. Overall, 92 percent of the expected vote is in, but those were the two major places where we were still waiting on a big chunk of votes to be reported.

Is it possible that the only thing that will stop Trump running, and winning, in 2024 is the chance that he may be in prison by then?

I suppose one small crumb of comfort is that if he does win this time, he can’t run again.

he can’t shouldn’t run again

The courts could be busy.

By my maths, if each of them wins each state in which they’re currently ahead you end up with Biden on 255 and Trump on 283. So a Biden win relies on the different leanings of people who vote by post or voted in places that are slow at counting.

I agree with dazh that this isn’t the thumping defeat that it should have been. That’s probably down to a combination of things, not least the entrenched tribalism of US politics where people are blindly republican or democrat (not that we’re much better).

My worry is that we see a scraped win for Biden and the Democrat party breathes a sigh of relief, settles in for 4 years in charge and never wonders why, after 8 years of a Democrat president, half of the country was willing to vote to Trump. Because after this term we’ll be back in that situation and a lacklustre Dem candidate will lose to another Republican lunatic.

Is it possible that the only thing that will stop Trump running, and winning, in 2024 is the chance that he may be in prison by then?

I was accused of being a terrible person when I wished him ill as he flirted with Caroni a few weeks back – bet you all wish I’d had my way now don’t you!

In 4 years mother nature might well have had it’s wicked way with him. And Biden too come to that.

In 4 years mother nature might well have had it’s wicked way with him us.

The difference between the two old men on climate change makes this election one that could permanently, irretrievably, make things worse for all of us.

Philly and Pittsburgh could swing Pennsylvania?
Yes Biden is currently ~600K votes down, but they’ve still got over 1 million left to count apparently (~25%) That’s would be 20 College votes…

The reason Trump wants counting stopped, is because it’s assumed that Urban Dems disproportionately voted by post and in a lot of places these are being counted last…

Biden was chosen entirely on his appeal to Trumps base/swing voters. Old, White, Male etc.

And meanwhile lost to every other demographic.

According to the exit poll, Trump did better in 2020 with every race and gender except white men.

Change from 2016:

White Men -5
White Women +2
Black Men +4
Black Women +4
Latino Men +3
Latino Women +3
Other +5 pic.twitter.com/hUc17Iy1ip

— Matt Bruenig (@MattBruenig) November 4, 2020

Just put 60 quid on trump at 3-1. If I win I’ll spend my cash on beers to cheer me up

“If a South American country behaved like the US, the CIA would be looking to destabilise it and move in their own puppet leader”

Sure – but has that not already happened? If you buy that the Russians disrupted the last election to install Trump and destabilise an enemy power.