U.S. Presidential Election 2020

Dear Americans, THIS is what an election in a mature democracy looks like. Yours,
The UK (H/T @loobstery) pic.twitter.com/lFRC0ht0x7

— Stephen Mangan (@StephenMangan) November 4, 2020

Hardly. Biden was the safe centrist establishment candidate. Yet now you’re equating him to Corbyn?

I do love your quaint idea that most people are sat studying the party manifestos and weighing up relative policies. They’re not. Its all soundbites and slickly produced campaign videos

The point is that Biden and Corbyn were both shit, uninspiring candidates, who didn’t even understand the populist showmen they were taking on.

I don’t know if you saw the Johnathan pie take on it, but this is absolutely on the money

It’s creeping toward a Biden win in WI

But sooooo tight & a somewhat bigger hill to climb in MI

My my maths, Biden will win MI if he wins 60% of the remaining ballots. Given his advantage with mail ballots, I think Biden should be favoured to win. Basically, Trump has to win all the remaining states, Biden will win if he takes Mi alone. Ga and NC are still possible wins for Biden, so he has more paths to victory than Trump.

@dazh

Biden was a BAD centrist candidate. He’s had a bad slip ups in press where his cognitive abilities have come into question. He carries both negative and positive baggage from being Obama’s VP. The stuff about his son, as much as a huge percentage of the media likes to ignore it, the general American population wont.

If any of you thought Biden was a great candidate, well, here we are in an election, where without a global pandemic his chances would probably be very slim. After all, before Covid, the US economy looked good, and had just avoided a confrontation with Iran.

Does anyone know if declared states can ‘change their mind’? it seems obvious but you just don’t know these days.

For example, Texas has declared for Trump, he’s leading 5.8m votes to 5.1m votes, but there’s still 2m votes left to count.

https://www.wsj.com/election-results-2020/

I’m keeping BBC coverage on in the background.

It sounds like it’s just too close to call still, and will be for most of the rest of the day but Trump is getting everything lined up for challenge/proud boy riots, by implying that counting should stop now, by suggesting that anything counted today wasn’t cast on or before polling day… It’s insidious and deliberate.

The thing is I can see it going Trump’s way, he’s scored the important swing states that the Dems thought they might have a chance in. His pre-emptive whinging just serves to undermine him should he subsequently win, and just make him look insecure (from the outside looking in)…
His supporting mob will no doubt love all of this though, it feeds into the conspiracy driven, division of the whole nation…

I do love your quaint idea that most people are sat studying the party manifestos and weighing up relative policies.

Have you seen Sanders speak and campaign? He was the perfect opponent against Trump, an aggressive, straight talking pit-bull of a campaigner. My point aboout Sanders has got nothing to do with the policies and is based purely on him having the presense and aggression to turn people’s heads away from Trump. We don’t know if he would have succeeded, but it’s almost certain that he’d have run a much better campaign than Biden.

@P-jay

I don’t if this is in full effect:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#:~:text=The%20National%20Popular%20Vote%20Interstate,and%20the%20District%20of%20Columbia.

Does anyone know if declared states can ‘change their mind’?

States haven’t declared, they’ve been declared by the media… they’re still counting.

Binners, the Corbyn thread is that way ——-> please don’t make this into a the Corbyn thread.

There is no perfect candidate – any of the Democrat frontrunners would have been attacked, just from different angles, whether it’s being a ‘socialist’, too old, too young, gay or just for being a woman.

Biden I think has tired horribly during the campaign. He was considerably more composed a month ago. I also have a suspicion that the sheer saturation of Democrat advertising aimed at certain states has actually irritated the voters.

Bernie should be mainstream USA, his policies are what is really needed there

No, he comes across as a cranky old man still living in the 1970s. I think Elizabeth Warren is a credible candidate, but Sanders isn’t. Giveaway with those two is that comfortably off White people with education like them, but Black voters did not like them. A Democratic candidate isn’t going to achieve much if Black voters won’t vote for them, as Hilary Clinton showed.

Does anyone know if declared states can ‘change their mind’?

All we have at the moment are unofficial predictions of who the final winners will be. The official winners won’t be announced until all the votes are tallied and any recounts or challenges dealt with. In most cases, it will be obvious who the winner is, but Wisconsin, Michigan, etc. might have weeks of recounts and lawsuits before the results are certified.

No, he comes across as a cranky old man still living in the 1970s.

I know how he comes across, and I agree… he’d have been a disaster as a candidate… but his policies, which he would have been attacked on and lost voters because of, are what they need yet absolutely will never embrace in enough numbers. I don’t think they chose the right candidate, but the answer wasn’t Sanders.

Bookies seem to have them neck and neck now.. Trump was the clear favourite a few hours ago (Biden was favourite last night)

Bernie Sanders? Seriously? He wouldn’t have stood a chance!

Surely Kamala Harris would have been the obviously better candidate?

Sanders would NEVER have won.

Agreed. One of the main MAGA scare points is “Boo! Socialism! Boo!” and Biden isn’t even socialist. Bernie is (by American standards).

I know the news is full of covid deniers and anti-maskers, but like anti vaxxers and flat earther, they’re small in number, but great footage

Nah, it’s not just on the news. Comments on social media posts on TikTok, FB, Twitter, YouTube etc are full of covid deniers. And unfortunately that matters these days. It sways opinion. (Especially when the president backs them and retweets them!)

And like flat earth I think it is indicative of a far more widespread anti-science anti-intellectual movement.

Surely Kamala Harris would have been the obviously better candidate?

Even if you disregard how controversial she is (for whatever reason), my life with an American wife has taught me this- unless there’s a dramatic shift in attitude, America is too bigoted to vote for a woman. To the point where they’d rather have a black man than a white woman.

My wife voted in Florida. Fat lot of use that was…

America is too bigoted to vote for a woman. To the point where they’d rather have a black man ranting shitgibbon than a white woman.

FTFY.

Its worth remembering that, so far, more than 66m US voters have said that they want Trump (liar, racist, sexist, incompetent international embarrassment) to be their President.

That is simply nuts.

Sanders would NEVER have won. I wish that were not the case, but it is.

100% agree.. Sanders wouldn’t have stood a chance

Bernie Sanders? Seriously? He wouldn’t have stood a chance!

You’d be surprised, he always polled well against Trump, and I don’t think sanders was getting the extra cool polling points that Biden/Clinton always get. In addition, I think he would have resonated well with some of the working class voters in the swing states. That said, imo pre-covid Trump was in a strong position to get re-elected

There’s over a million votes to be counted in PA

Its tightening in Trumps favour in AZ & NV

WI still too close

MI a while off

This is all just too depressing now. Trump is going to play it like he said he would and now there are only two real options:

Trump gets a second term.
Riots.

I’m not a big fan of the US at the best of times but now they can go and rot in the filth of their own making.

Bernie Sanders? Seriously? He wouldn’t have stood a chance!

Maybe, we don’t know. We do know for certain however that he would have fought a much more aggressive campaign, and he had an army of on the ground campaigners ready to sweat blood for him. I’m not so sure the policies are particularly important in this election, it’s mostly personalities, and the still relevant anti-establishment undercurrent. Sanders would have put off some anti-socialist centrists, and perhaps some black people, but he would have scooped up huge numbers of white working class votes in the rustbelt states where Biden is struggling. If you look at the map this morning, I doubt any of the currently blue states would have been lost by Sanders, but he would have stood to gain in many red ones.

America is too bigoted to vote for a woman. To the point where they’d rather have a black man than a white woman.

That’s my opinion why Harris is Biden’s VP.
There’s no way that the US will vote for a woman, let alone a Democrat one, so let the old vanilla guy clear the pathway for her. It may happen yet.

they can go and rot in the filth of their own making

Of course the problem this time is that, because we’re rotting in the filth of our own making in the UK, it’ll effect us much more in terms of a trade deal that’s truly devastating for food standards, health etc, or one that’s just pretty bad.

Let’s be honest, over the last few days Biden has looked completely clapped out. Every time I’ve seen him campaigning I haven’t managed to hear what he’s saying, a combination of wearing a mask whilst talking into a megaphone and a weakening voice.

Trump held 6 rallies on Monday, ranting for over an hour at each. For a man supposedly recovering from coronavirus his energy levels were amazing. When Biden jogged up the catwalk a couple of days ago I really began to worry, in trying to show how youthfull and energetic he was he illustrated exactly the opposite.

Trump looks like the youthful candidate, Biden comes across as 15-20 years older than Trump.

I think the talk of best candidates is a bit of a distraction too. I think when one side is willing to play on people’s most base emotions in the most cynical ways, there really isn’t a lot you can do, and that’s what’s so worrying.

No reason at all to assume western liberal democracy will last forever, I think we are seeing the beginnings of that, honestly.

One thing that baffles me is the way he seems to have got away with shitting on the military, and this coming from a draft dodger. In a mega patriotic country that reveres the military it seems very odd.

Of course the problem this time is that, because we’re rotting in the filth of our own making in the UK, it’ll effect us much more in terms of a trade deal that’s truly devastating for food standards, health etc, or one that’s just pretty bad.

It’ll make no difference, we’ll be agreeing trade deals with the same folk whoever ‘wins’ this nonsense.

Even if you disregard how controversial she is (for whatever reason)

She’s had some very stupid moments. Like using the confirmation hearing of Mattis to virtue signal, or riding the Jess Smolett “incident” which then turned out that was of his making.

kimbers

Fudge this I’m going for a bike ride

Kimbers wins. 🙂

Sanders would NEVER have won. I wish that were not the case, but it is.

Would have been a much better President for the US and the world.

But wouldn’t get elected over there, not in a million years. I agree pandering to the centre is tinkering with the problems, but the fact is, people don’t seem to want to vote for a big lurch to the left, even if it’s bin their own interests.

For a man supposedly recovering from coronavirus his energy levels were amazing.

Did you not hear his Fox and Friends call? He sounded like hell. Slurring badly and rambling about how unfair Fox had been to him. He almost sounded drunk but probably just knackered.

Its worth remembering that, so far, more than 66m US voters have said that they want Trump (liar, racist, sexist, incompetent international embarrassment) to be their President.

That is simply nuts

Yep, it’s amazing.  We just can’t see what they can.  If it were just one state, or one demographic then fair enough but it’s half of America.  Part of it will be ‘never Democrat’ but the rest is amazing

Even if the counts continue, and Biden gets the states he needs… Trump is now set up to be “the real President” and a right royal pain in the arse of any future administration. What he managed to achieve in terms of damaging Obama (the birther nonsense etc) is nothing compared to the disinformation and instability he’ll able to spread as the “defrauded rightful ruler”.

This is a pretty good set of news for Democrats in Nevada. It's not going to be called when the margin is this narrow, but you can pencil it in the Biden column for the purpose of gaming out where we're going from here https://t.co/cCly1QnmGU

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

He almost sounded drunk but probably just knackered.

Trump is teetotal.

“As Trump himself admitted in a 2018 Rose Garden press conference, his lifelong sobriety is “one of my only good traits.” He went on to say, “I never had alcohol, for whatever reason. Can you imagine if I had? What a mess I would be. I would be the world’s worst.””

https://www.mashed.com/239831/the-real-reason-donald-trump-doesnt-drink-alcohol/?utm_campaign=clip

Its worth remembering that, so far, more than 66m US voters have said that they want Trump (liar, racist, sexist, incompetent international embarrassment) to be their President.

That is simply nuts

Yep, it’s amazing. We just can’t see what they can. If it were just one state, or one demographic then fair enough but it’s half of America. Part of it will be ‘never Democrat’ but the rest is amazing

How do you think we’re looking to the rest of the world at the moment?

With our lying, philandering, bumbling, racist, incompetent former-journalist and sometime TV host as PM, with his huge majority, about to commit the greatest act of economic suicide ever, that was voted for by a majority of the population.

I don’t think we’re in a position to be passing judgement on anyone

Alas Kelvin I think you’re right.