U.S. Presidential Election 2020

Ohio was always goung to be a crap ahoot.
Arizona is looking better because of demographic change. That would be a pick up for Biden.

It’s certainly more of a nailbiter than I initially thought.

However, Biden can lose Ohio and still win, as long as he holds the Clinton states and wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Other than Wisconsin there will be a lag in favour of Biden as the other three don’t start to process early voting until the day of the vote.

Virginia is giving me the willies but apparently it’s normal and once Fairfax comes in it should revert to Democrat

It’s certainly more of a nailbiter than I initially thought.

However, Biden can lose Ohio and still win, as long as he holds the Clinton states and wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Other than Wisconsin there will be a lag in favour of Biden as the other three don’t start to process early voting until the day of the vote.

Virginia is giving me the willies but apparently it’s normal and once Fairfax comes in it should revert to Democrat

This.

It was always going to be closer than it should be. The professor who has correctly called every election son 1984 said 7 factors to 6 for Biden.

This is much more tense than I can remember in past elections and the timescale for finalising counts seems longer. Polls seem to have got it wrong again e.g Texas, Florida, North Carolina. I’m desperately hoping Biden wins and the Democrats get the Senate.

So early to call, Pennsylvania looking key and that’s not going to finish before tomorrow. Not really getting what’s happening with early voting and mail ins tho, wasn’t the shout that Trump would get early leads due to in person?

Trump's in a better position than he was at the start of the night. Biden's not going to win in a landslide. But there's still not a ton we know outside of Florida, and the data we do have is fairly mixed and not necessarily suggestive of as large a polling error elsewhere.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020

Arizona looking good for Biden. If he takes that and the two single college votes in Maine and Nebraska then he can win without Pennsylvania. Or indeed take Pennsylvania and lose Michigan. If he takes Arizona + the two single votes and all four of the rust belts he can afford to lose Virginia.

Ye gods it’s complex stuff though. Not sure rum + IPA is ideal for the comex permutationing

Nebraska’s already called for Trump, no?

Not really getting what’s happening with early voting and mail ins tho, wasn’t the shout that Trump would get early leads due to in person?

Individual states set their own rules. Some count the mail ins before election day, some don’t. Some count the mail ina first, then election day. Others do it the other way round. Some have a firm of electronic voting for election day but paper ballots for mail in. So it all depends.

Seems like Biden is doing better in the early vote as predicted in those that are counted.

But conversely, Trump is doing better for in person?

Not really getting what’s happening with early voting and mail ins tho, wasn’t the shout that Trump would get early leads due to in person?

Some states counted early votes early (eg Florida, Texas and I believe Ohio) which gave Biden an early lead, subsequently whittled away by Trump’s mob on the day. Other states haven’t processed early votes until today and some prioritise on the day votes. Those – which include Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota – will show Trump as being ahead initially, but should then see him being clawed back.

You also have the phenomenon whereby small, rural states – which mostly plump for Trump overwhelmingly – are much quicker to return their counts, which gives the honey monster a strong early lead. This can be seen in Michigan and Pennsylvania and Virginia. The big cities always take longer to deliver their counts.  As these come in we’ll hopefully see the reverse of what we saw in Florida and Texas..

If it turns out that Trump wins I’m going to eat my own anus and attempt to break the space time continuum.

I’m on Amazon as I speak looking at dental floss.

Can’t help but remember the SNL sketch that was posted the other day 🙁

Still, the upside is I found a 2002 Grand Cru medoc at the back of the cupboard, while searching for drinkable wine 🍷🍷🍷🍷🍷🍷. Saving that for a time when something good happens in politics tho. Reckon it’ll keep for another decade or so…

That’s me done, fatigue wins. If he holds onto the lead in Arizona (which i think he will, they haven’t forgotten McCain) and nothing silly happens in Virginia, then he’s got a decent chance in the rustbelt. Guess I’ll find out in the morning..

Not really getting what’s happening with early voting and mail ins tho, wasn’t the shout that Trump would get early leads due to in person?

Yes, this is the Trump campaign’s hail Mary. In many states, the postal ballots cannot be processed until election day, so they are counted last. The expectation is that postal ballots will heavily favour Biden, while E-day voting will favour Trump. Therefore, Trump will declare victory on E-day when he is ahead on the provisional count, then lodge legal challenges to counting the postal ballots.

If Biden had won Florida, this strategy would not have been very plausible, but now it’s going to come down to postal ballots in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. Gonna be a messy few days.

Fox calls Arizona for Biden, finally some good news

Arizona was John McCain’s state which had an impact on the Democrat vote after Trump’s cowardly comments about how he likes his war heroes who hadn’t been prisoners of war.

VA turning blue, the % changes can be quite large no 0.1% drift, 5% wallop!

Woke up naturally at 3am, disappointed Biden hasn’t been able to smash Trump, means there going to be chaotic scenes over the next few days.

VA turning blue, the % changes can be quite large no 0.1% drift, 5% wallop!

Yep. Probably see the same pattern in Pa, Wi, Mi as postal ballots are counted.

Same here, was hoping to see a big lead for Biden but it’s so close it is properly scaring me. No hope of going back to sleep now!

As it stands, Biden needs to win Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He can win without Pennsylvania. Trump pretty much has to win Pennsylvania to have any real hope.

Trump wins Ohio.

I currently have no clue who’s winning really but have a gnawing feeling in the pit of my stomach. This isn’t relaxing viewing at all.

North Carolina not looking good either.

I think it gets more relaxing as the ABV of your beverage increases.

*hunts for absinthe*

FFS! Disappointing that Trump is doing so well. After four years of that **** why isn’t it 100% Biden? American’s what’s wrong with you?

I don’t think it’s that surprising. As outsiders, America First is anathema to us. Probably quite appealing if you’re American though.

it’s how a 2nd brexit ref would have panned out….. you get entrenchment where nothing moves.

It’s shocking how crude and misguided people can be. The only cheery thing on here is the thought of that medoc. Given freedom to travel, the US is the last place I’d be thinking of.

Biden making statement at 5.30.

Reckon he’ll deflect Trump’s statement, which will be calling victory if he wins Wisconsin.

Ok I’m slightly confused.

The Guardian has the current count at 223:136 favouring Biden whereas the BBC has it 205:136 so that should be a pretty big win for Biden on the college front. I know the popular vote is close with 1.5m difference in favour of Biden so surely it all points at Biden getting it but nowhere near the landslide we all hoped for.

Might be that I’m still waking up but how can Trump overturn those kinds of figures?

Ignore that, figured it out. Their system really is messed up!

The official count is never released on the day / night. But if it’s ‘obvious’ that a candidate will win a state, the media will call it. Each media place can decide their threshold for ‘obvious’.

CNN famously called Florida wrong in 2000 and so now the media is more reluctant to call for states. That’s compounded massively this year by the postal vote situation / ‘Red Mirage’ so really it isn’t over until it’s over.

Just woke up with the News quoting too close to call.

Is it really?  Could Trump really stay in?

It really is a system set up to be abused by someone like Trump, to call things early, set up doubts and misinformation so that they can make legal challenges etc. Biden’s right in that they need to wait for every vote to be counted officially but by then Tinkerbell will have had time to sow seeds of doubt, play dirty tricks and throw his toys out if the pram!

I think there is one definite now perhaps?

With no overwhelming win for either side there is likely to be another 4 years of increasingly nasty division/ probable large scale civil unrest.

Right, off to kip.

Fingers crossed for Biden.