The Autumn Statement…

allthepies – Member
Whose accounts would you open up to get 1.5 trillion pounds ?

Everyones.

ninfan – Member
Seosamh77: if you seized all bank deposits, would it settle all outstanding debt?

if that’s not enough, i’d seize assets and sell them.

if that’s not enough, i’d seize assets and sell them.

And what would people buy them with?

ninfan – Member
if that’s not enough, i’d seize assets and sell them.
And what would people buy them with?

I’m not seizing world wide accounts.

So who is going to buy it from abroad, when they know that you might just come along and seize it when it suits you?

And I think you might find that all your deposits have gone abroad to avoid seizure as well 😆

ninfan – Member

And I think you might find that all your deposits have gone abroad to avoid seizure as well not if I freeze all accounts immediately.

They’re not actually devolving power, they’re devolving blame

A little cyncial this early in the morning ! Currently it’s too easy for politicians in the regions to blame it all on Westminster, this addresses the problem.

Well to be fair to Binners, that’s exactly what the writers at The Economist have been saying since the push for regional devolution. There’s more cuts to come. By the time the voters feel the pain the regional devolution will be in place so the local government will get the blame. A few sensible people will point out that it was the central government who initiated the cuts back in 2015 but the media will ignore this and voters won’t realise the game that was played and will follow with their anger accordingly.

I’ve voted Conservative all my life but the more I see the games that the current lot are up to the more I think there’s no way I want to reward them by giving them a vote next year… it’s really nasty stuff and very cynical with it…

If they admitted the problem was systemic and difficult to solve and would take a long time to straighten out, I’d trust them, but this nasty pretence that they have an answer whilst messing about with credit and house prices to give an illusion of wealth is just utter lies

Binners, you wrote that tax receipts are down due to the number of jobs that are created with minimum wage/zero hours but I’m pretty sceptical about that.

My hypotheses is different – tax rates are now so high that there has been a surge in the number of people who choose to be self employed – many of these who can then use various techniques to minimise their real income and thus pay significantly less tax than someone earning the same as a salary which in many cases means they will pay net tax of around 22% compared to the 40% tax that more skilled roles would attract on a salaried basis.

The CIPD report on Zero Hours would seem to support this – its estimate is that only 1.3m people are on Zero hours, approx 3% of all workers. Within that 1.3m, around half are working a number of hours they are satisfied with i.e. if they were offered more hours they would not take them.

The Labour Force survey (which uses different data) seems to suggest the number of zero hours workers has increased by around 20% over the last 4 years, and as we already know, many of these contracts are in place in charities, the NHS and Labour run councils – so it’s not entirely a case of evil robbing capital firms using them.

http://www.cipd.co.uk/binaries/zero-hours-contracts_2013-myth-reality.pdf

By contrast, the number of self employed workers has now risen to close to 5m, with nearly 2/3 of all additional workers between 2008 and 2014 working this way.

What do you think?

All the main parties are either in denial or being dishonest with the public. This will continue through to the election. The problem (as I have said in many occassions) is that the crisis continues to be misdiagnosed. It’s a crisis about excess leverage pure and simple – the rest ie growth, fiscal positions, deficits, debts, bankers etc are symptoms not causes.

But votes don’t like the truth (look at the Scottish referendum) and no party will win on the basis of explaining that cuts to come are greater that cuts past. But that is the sad fact irrespective of who wins.

GO smart trick, whether deliberate or not, has been to give the impression of delivering austerity while doing nothing of the sort. Indeed, the hidden fact that they took the foot of the austerity pedal is probably more of a reason why UK recovered better, than any reasons he gives in public.

Cuts, cuts and more cuts on the way – George, Edf, Danny,,,,,it’s doesn’t matter. So pick the face that you want to see on the TV more often. Otherwise there will be bugger all to differentiate between them.

Indeed brooess. We have a ‘recovery’ that is based on exactly what got us into such a mess in the first place. Artificially inflated house prices (compounded by economic lunacy such as Help to Buy), which are ludicrously over-valued, giving the illusion of wealth, so that the lucky homeowners can endlessly borrow against their supposedly ever-increasing asset, to free up cheap available credit, to spend on shit they don’t need. All happily supplied by a completely unreformed banking sector, still carrying on as if nothing ever happened.

All while the supposed beneficiaries of Georges ‘rebalancing of the economy’, the manufacturing industry, andsmall business are starved of investment

What could possibly go wrong?

I’m with you just5minutes, a huge chunk of people I know once they get 5 or so years under their belt start contracting and using all the tricks to avoid tax. It’s almost a mugs game being on PAYE if you are a highly qualified professional.

just5minutes – you’re right about the huge rise in the self-employed. But the vast majority of these new self-employed aren’t the thrusting young entrepreneurs of Georges imagination. Nor are they professionls. Though this is how its being spun.

They’re people being encouraged into it by cynical moves to get people off the books at Job Centres. Most of them are eking out an existence on minimum wage, trying to pick up hours where they can, and having their earnings topped up with tax credits. So we’re back to the same problem

An interesting read

Most of the self-employed work in building and construction. After that it’s cab drivers, and after that chippies and the “skilled trade”. Most women who are self-employed are cleaners, carers or hairdressers. Does the chancellor really imagine that workers like these are raking it in?

The average income from self-employment has fallen by 22% since the financial crash of 2008. Last year’s figures showed that average earnings had dropped from £15,000 to just under £10,400.

So the actual stats are the opposite end of the spectrum from the impression being given. It sure aint professionals on £40k+

so just5minutes are you saying that 2/3 of all new jobs since 2008 would have been on salaries above the 40k tax band?
sounds very unlikely to me
Im sure at the upper end of the wage range its true, but vast majority are at the lower end, with no sick or holiday pay or pension contributions and all the further problems those things cause at a personal and state level

Personally, I’d just crack open the bank accounts and pay off the debt in a one off go at it. Then start investing and properly growing the economy and run it there after in a sustainable way.
consider the debt under austerity has gone from around 500b to 1.4 tr. I’d suggest that austerity/hoardism is a pile of bollocks.

So you want to steal everyone’s money ! Just think about where the public debt would have gone if we’d had Labour’s level of spending.

It’s almost a mugs game being on PAYE if you are a highly qualified professional.

There is a lot of truth in this.

@binners I think one reason tax receipts are down is that we have lost so many well paid jobs in banking / finance. Hundreds of thousands of jobs directly in banks and in supporting services, jobs that paid 50k, 100k, 500k etc. These jobs paid well and thus contributed lots of taxes. Also the banks themselves lost so much money they’ve paid much less tax (loss carry forward) which is something Osbourne addressed yesterday. Also with tax rates at 47% (and worse at 52%) people are much more focused on legitmate avoidance like pensions which reduce the taxes paid.

Most women who are self-employed are cleaners, carers or hairdressers. Does the chancellor really imagine that workers like these are raking it in?

I know living costs are high down South but cleaners make £10-£15 an hour. My mate in Derby pays his cleaner £10/hour. It’s hardly raking it in but it’s double the minimum wage. Also quite tax efficient I would guess. All those stats you are quoting are from declared income, doesn’t take into account whats not declared.

Did you just conveniently ignore the rest of that statement? In favour of the more anecdotal approach about you and your mate?

The average income from self-employment has fallen by 22% since the financial crash of 2008. Last year’s figures showed that average earnings had dropped from £15,000 to just under £10,400.

Its tax efficient alright. When you don’t earn enough to pay tax. Would you fancy living on 10 grand a year? Cleaners are not earning £15 an hour.

jambalaya – Member
I know living costs are high down South but cleaners make £10-£15 an hour.

Rubbish.

15 quid an hour?

the daily mashes favorite institute well almost analysis my guess will be a hike in VAT if the tories get in again and goodbye to trident if labour wins

I think we can take a VAT hike as read if George’s still chancellor. Probably the first thing he’ll do if, god forbid, he gets back to his desk. Its the Tory’s favourite tax as it hits the poorest the hardest

My cleaner is paid £10 per hour and her other customers pay her more.

Is she self-employed or is she an agency? If she’s self-employed remember she’s only getting paid £10 for the hour she works, she’s not getting paid for the time between jobs, her effective hourly rate will be lower unless she does a solid day with a customer. Do you provide materials or does she supply those too?

All kind of trivial beside the point of “You pay her £10 per hour- is she representative”. Payscale reckon the average is £6.71

It’s hardly raking it in but it’s double the minimum wage

Only if you are really bad at maths is £10 double the minimum wage.

No agency, we provide materials, Half her week is spent in our street so she has done well on travelling between jobs of late but before she would no doubt have had more dead time in the past. It is pretty representative for my area*, admittedly an affluent part of London, some will be agency, some will be direct.

EDIT: In fact, we are at the low end.

My hypotheses is different – tax rates are now so high that there has been a surge in the number of people who choose to be self employed – many of these have been forced off unemployment benefit and into non sustainable business ventures and are now claiming working tax credits instead

FTFY.

Its tax efficient alright. When you don’t declare you earn enough to pay tax.

😉

FTFY

My old cleaner even back in 2009 was on £10 an hour (cash), more now. All consumables were provided by the household. Mind I’m you not sure what that tells you, or what cleaners cost for that matter. Anyway most cleaners working through agencies seem to be foreign IME, as no UK people want to do the work.

My old cleaner even back in 2009 was on £10 an hour (cash), more now.

I’d be happy to clean your house for £10.00 an hour, I must be in the wrong buisness.

dragon – Member
as no UK people want to do the work.

That’s a ridiculous myth.

Given this:

“It’s a crisis about excess leverage pure and simple – the rest ie growth, fiscal positions, deficits, debts, bankers etc are symptoms not causes”

Then this story in the Telegraph on UK personal debt levels is terrifying:

Household debt to increase beyond 2008 levels

It suggests the government really have no idea how to pay down the debt without a massive impact on living standards – so they’re just replacing the lack of wage growth and investment growth with more personal debt.

I can’t see quite how this can end well at all.