Syria

the Christian neighbourhoods in Damamscus were celebrating last night just like the Sunni ones.

If they were “celebrating” I suspect they were doing so because they feared the consequences of not celebrating. They certainly have much to fear of the jihadists who have seized power.  I am not quite so sure what they had to fear from Assad.

I personally have only spoken at length to one Syrian in recent years, she is a Christian who lives in Aleppo and comes regularly to London to stay with her son who lives here. She is/was a huge supporter Assad believing that he guaranteed the security of Christians in Syria. She claimed that the Christian area of Aleppo was not targeted by government forces as the rebels were not active there (Aleppo had previously been held by rebels) and that the only real danger to life came from rebel missiles.

There are numerous accounts of Syrian Christians fearing the rebel advances, here’s just one but if you Google it you will find many more.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/06/aleppo-christians-syria-rebel-offensive-assad/

It invented Stella, so just think how much that’s contributed to global conflict

Most of that conflict is confined to the pavement outside the local ‘Spoons.

Thinking about it, I’m quite glad that Islamic fundamentalists don’t drink. Imagine a bunch of angry jihadists after 8 pints of Stella each? That’d make for one challenging 3am kebab house visit

some horrufic stuff coming out about Syrias prisons

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/tears-of-joy-and-sadness-as-disappeared-syrians-emerge-from-assads-prisons

These images should haunt, for the rest of their lives, anyone who helped keep Assad in power. Almost 20 hours after entering Sednayah prison, efforts continue to reach underground cells. 1000s are believed to be in the 2nd & 3rd floors sealed underground. #Syria (?Credit: Qalaat Al Mudiq)

— News Eye (@newseye.bsky.social) 2024-12-08T19:52:43.257Z

meanwhile

In Lattakia, Sunni, Alawite, and Christian religious leaders reportedly gathered at the Huryieh Mosque to discuss the situation after Assad's regime fell, and reaffirm the city’s commitment to peaceful coexistence amidst recent developments.

— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 2024-12-08T21:16:42.354Z

Imagine a bunch of angry jihadists after 8 pints of Stella each?

Bloke in my cycling group loves a Stella or two, thank goodness he hasn’t got a wife.

HTS have got some form.

https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/press-briefing-note-syria-idlib-violations-and-abuses-20-november-2020

We have been receiving disturbing reports of continued detention of civilians, including humanitarian workers, in Idlib, northwestern Syria, in areas under the control of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other armed groups. We have also been receiving deeply troubling reports of executions following the detentions and so-called trials by the de facto authorities.

 

Just this week, on Wednesday, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham confirmed that it was holding a 28-year-old woman, Noor al-Shallo, a humanitarian and media worker, allegedly on “moral” and “criminal” charges. Her family has not had any contact with her since she was detained by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham members in September at the HTS-linked Sarmada “court” in Idlib while she was following up on issues relating to the custody of her three children. We have seen a number of reports suggesting that she may be at risk of execution. 

whatever happens, is that Iran will have to reign in its endless regional shit-stirring. This is a major kick in the nuts for them.

al Assad running away means that Iran has so far;

Lost access to the Med

reportedly $30B down the drain

Land bridge to Lebanon is gone

Hezbollah supply lines cut

Their regional plan has literally gone up in smoke…I doubt they’ll take it on the chin.

Any independent confirmation of that, or is it a school or hospital, as usual ?

It’s widely reported, e.g. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/suspected-israeli-strikes-hit-part-damascus-two-security-sources-say-2024-12-08/

No mention of schools or hospitals, but then it wasn’t the Syrian air force which does have form

The bombs smashed into a child care center, a refugee camp and a school. They destroyed makeshift clinics and hospitals, disabling essential services for tens of thousands of people.
Over the past year, attacks on buildings in northwestern Syria, which are supposed to be off limits during wartime under international law, grew so frequent that the head of the United Nations launched an inquiry to document the violations.   https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/31/world/middleeast/syria-united-nations-investigation.html

I’m sure the ones the Russians bombed were really terrorist command centres.

We’ll probably never know…

Secretary General António Guterres’s establishment of the investigation is seen by many diplomats as a success at a United Nations largely stymied by division in the powerful Security Council. Russia, a Syrian government ally and a major perpetrator of these attacks, has cast 14 vetoes in the Security Council since the start of the war in Syria, blocking accountability efforts and hindering humanitarian aid deliveries into Syria. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/31/world/middleeast/syria-united-nations-investigation.html

The bombs smashed into a child care center, a refugee camp and a school. They destroyed makeshift clinics and hospitals, disabling essential services for tens of thousands of people.

So we’re agreed that bombing schools and hospitals is A Bad Thing, right ?

I have no idea if this is true, it allegedly comes from an Iranian official source, but I have heard the suggestion that Iran warned Assad two months ago that HTS were preparing to make a move but he allegedly ignored it.

Apparently when Aleppo fell the Iranians were prepared to use their troops to help Assad expecting him to ask for assistance but when the request never came they became convinced that he didn’t want to remain in power.

I think that you’re right to be sceptical. It sounds like someone exaggerating the strength of their army to put rebels at home off and to maintain a position in the wider region

HTS have got some form

Of course, but al-Assad is demonstrably worse by many orders of magnitude, which doesn’t make any of this right. We’ll have to wait and see.

Video shows thousands of cars jamming roads to Damascus as displaced people return to the capital after hearing the Assad regime had been overthrown by the opposition.

— (@aljazeera.com) 2024-12-09T08:08:55.630Z

Hopefully they understand better than me, like a few on here, I’m lacking optimism.

Yup, it’s difficult to be optimistic when the dominant rebel faction is designated terrorist by the United States government and Israel has already both invaded and bombed Syria since the collapse of the Assad regime.

Israel has already both invaded and bombed Syria since the collapse of the Assad regime.

Yeah but Assad – I excuse me, AL-Assad – has already bombed the hospitals so we’ll be spared that. I suppose they can always move on to the mosques and other terrorist infrastructure.

So we’re agreed that bombing schools and hospitals is A Bad Thing, right ?

Can you point me to a quote where someone suggested it was a good thing?

I see our government is reviewing HTS’ terrorist designation. Our enemy’s enemy is our friend doesn’t often work out well

I see our government is reviewing HTS’ terrorist designation. Our enemy’s enemy is our friend doesn’t often work out well

History tells us this. I’d substitute ‘friend’ for ‘casual acquaintance’ to be accurate. 😉

One of the challenges with partnering with indigenous militias/armed groups/etc is they change hands in terms of leadership frequently so they can go from being batshit crazy zealots to moderate & disciplined and then back to fire & brimstone in short order.

I’ve been out of the loop since 2020 but I very much doubt anything has changed in that regard, I do find it curious we’re reviewing our current arrangement but the USA are still firmly anti regard HTS. That would make the five-eyes arena a little more challenging to work in.

Of course, but al-Assad is demonstrably worse by many orders of magnitude

Given the track record of hardline islamists when they get in power, I’d be reserving judgment on that one for a wee while yet

I very much doubt that al-Jawlani’s HTS (still sounds like a delivery company) will still be in charge in a year’s time as these kind of revolutions devour their children.

They could be jumping out of the frying pan into the fire, but if you’re sizzling away in a pan, jumping out is a reasonable first step.

Generally if a regime is being supported or propped up by Putin, or if it harms Putin’s interests for it to fall, that’s a good thing.  It’s like looking at whatever Farage’s position is on an issue and assuming the reverse is the correct one.

One of our friends is Syrian, now living over here. It sounded bloody awful over there – she worked at a university in Lebanon and was a divorced Muslim woman (which obviously made things much harder), and her ex-husband had her kid. Driving back to Damascus to see her child she’d be stopped at three or four checkpoints along the way and you’d never know if they were government forces or rebels or IS, and they’d ask questions which you’d have to answer the right way or risk being shot.

She’s anti-Assad, but also of the same ethnic group as him which means both the rebels and Assad saw her family as an enemy.

She’s not sure what to think. The downfall of Assad is a massive relief, but HTS aren’t really who she’d have chosen. She said this to me-

I have very mixed feelings. I can’t bring myself to be optimistic or pessimistic. Damascus is the oldest place in history – home of the first alphabet, the first written piece of music. It has long been a vibrant, multi-faith and multicultural dynamic society. But for 54 years it’s been ruled by the Ba’ath Party, which has systematically destroyed political life. This is the end of their dictatorship but I’m sure the American-Israeli agendas and their allies Turkey and Qatar will capitalise on this situation.

The Islamist troops interned the coastal cities today. New flags are everywhere. The old regime flags and images have been destroyed. They took photos and videos to show that they’re coming with peace, but 80% of the shops were looted and the central bank in Damascus was looted last night. There’s total economic crisis.

So, even the Syrians don’t know what to think. But, immediately, they think the war is over and that’s why so many are returning to their homes. If they have one left – I know my pal doesn’t, it was bombed years ago by Assad’s forces.

God only knows what is going to fill that vacuum.

Can’t see it being much better, all those different factions will soon start fighting each other.

God only knows what is going to fill that vacuum.

I’m guessing Turkey will try to.

Trump has no interest in Syria, so there’s that – but also he lies constantly so there’s that ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

ISW reporting on Israeli troops in Syria

4/ The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) deployed forces to establish a buffer zone in Syria along the Golan Heights. The IDF stated that these deployments are a defensive and temporary operation to protect Israel from possible instability in Syria resulting from the fall of the Syrian regime.

— Institute for the Study of War (@thestudyofwar.bsky.social) 2024-12-09T02:05:45.503Z

Given the track record of hardline islamists when they get in power, I’d be reserving judgment on that one for a wee while yet

Very much this… ‘a change of management’ is just that.. Could be better, more likely likely a free for all in the short term with various factions killing each other.

So probably the same or worse for the average citizen just trying to get by in life. 

The IDF stated that these deployments are a defensive and temporary operation to protect Israel from possible instability in Syria resulting from the fall of the Syrian regime.

Israel have long wanted to add the Golan heights to their territory. Looks like they just have.

https://news.sky.com/story/syria-latest-assad-russia-trump-israel-migrants-13265154?postid=8758186#liveblog-body

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is holding a news conference in Jerusalem.

Speaking about Syria, he says “the Golan Heights will forever be an inseparable part of the state of Israel”.

Speaking about Syria, he says “the Golan Heights will forever be an inseparable part of the state of Israel

Yeah, but his territorial ambitions are so ridiculous that in another couple of years he could be saying the same thing about Alderly Edge. It’s not actually that far from Prestwich

So war continues, we have presumably just entered the next phase:

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Sunday that it had struck more than 75 targets, including ISIL (ISIS) leaders, operatives and camps, to ensure that the armed group does not take advantage of the end of al-Assad’s rule.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/9/us-announces-air-strikes-on-isil-targets-in-syria-sfter-al-assadss-fall

So war continues, we have presumably just entered the next phase:

Makes sense though, keep those utterly batshit crazy zealots occupied so hopefully some slightly less batshit crazy zealots fill the power vacuum…

…won’t be holding my breath for moderates though.

The kurds in eastern Syria are ‘overseeing’ about 4000 prisoners/refugees from the isis caliphate, in degraded conditions, theres a lot of worry that its a likely breeding ground for terrorism.

Trump has no interest in Syria

But Israel does, and Trump strongly supports Israel, so whether he likes it or not, he’s going to be ‘interested’ in Syria.

I believe that Trump’s commitment to Israel is highly questionable, unlike Joe Biden’s whose commitment I don’t question at all.

If Trump “supports” Israel then imo it is because he believes that it is in his benefit to so, I don’t believe for a moment that he has any ideological or emotional commitment to Israel, or anything else for that matter.

And if he doesn’t like something Trump just won’t do it. Israel won’t force Trump to get involved in Syria imo, if he does it will be because he wants to.

Personally I think Trump will dramatically accelerate the current US policy which seeks disengagement from the Middle East as he puts all his focus on China.

Trump’s appointing some of the most hawkish pro zionists to his cabinet.

hes also very against Iran (he armed some of the Kurdish groups that have been involved in this takeover, to try and contain Iran )

Israel’s land grab in Golan will hopefully be the end of it, but i wouldn’t be surprised if netenyahu pushes for more

The human race is the victim here.. we are doomed. Even I’m starting to not care any more, from wars to climate etc.. what’s the point in caring any more?

Trump’s appointing some of the most hawkish pro zionists to his cabinet.

Undoubtedly, I wouldn’t dispute that at all. What I am suggesting is that Trump’s commitment to anything is not set in stone. All those hawkish pro zionists in his cabinet could all be gone in a year or two. Indeed Trump has a history of falling out with former allies.

And can you imagine Joe Biden standing in front of the Israeli American Council and saying this?

“A lot of you are in the real estate business because I know you very well. You’re brutal killers. Not nice people at all. But you have to vote for me; you have no choice.” – Donald Trump

By “brutal killers” and “not nice people at all” Trump was clearly referencing Israel and zionists.

All I am saying is that no one can predict with any confidence what Trump will do. He might well involve the United States in further military adventures in the Middle East, but based on his anti-interventionist Republican core base I suspect that is unlikely.

I believe that Trump’s commitment to Israel is highly questionable

Hang on, there is this: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40003636

worth it for the memes alone….

Personally I think Trump will dramatically accelerate the current US policy which seeks disengagement from the Middle East as he puts all his focus on China

He’s tried that before; there’s a whole world of difference between seeking disengagement and actually disengaging safely

He wanted to withdraw US troops from Syria in 2019 and was roundly criticised, while the losers would have been the US-backed Kurdish fighters and population

Clearly we’ll have a new dynamic in 2025, a different Congress, different governments in the middle-east, etc. but here’s a Chatham House 3-minute read on events in 2019 https://www.chathamhouse.org/2019/10/trump-withdraws-troops-syria-fallout

Iran, for example, is accelerating uranium enrichment, “After pulling the United States out of the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, Trump pursued a “maximum pressure” policy that sought to wreck Iran’s economy. He is staffing his planned administration with hawks on Iran.” https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-dramatically-increasing-enrichment-near-bomb-grade-iaea-chief-2024-12-06/

I think that he’d be well-served to engage diplomatically more, look at bringing Iran’s escalating nuclear capability back into discussions to remove sanctions, etc. https://theconversation.com/will-trump-renew-maximum-pressure-against-iran-or-could-there-be-an-opening-for-dialogue-243478

It’s not a question of Trump trying, disengagement from the Middle East is current active US policy under Joe Biden. That is one of the primary reasons why Biden has pursued the policy of normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which is simply an extension of Trump’s Abraham Accords policy.

At the heart of the new Israel-Saudi Arabia relations would be a military alliance which would help contain Iran and protect United States interests in the region with less US presence.

Ironically although Joe Biden is still actively pursuing this policy of Israeli-Saudi normalised relations, despite the enormous setbacks that the Hamas attack had on the situation, the US are less likely to be successful under a Trump presidency than the current one because of Saudi distrust and dislike of Trump.

The reason this Saudi dislike/distrust of Trump is because despite blaming Iran for the September 2019 attack on Saudi oil processing facilities he refused to take any action against Iran. The Saudis pleaded with Trump to take retaliatory action against Iran, Biden would have very likely obliged with something like a cruise missile strike, but Trump refused publicly claiming that he did not want war with  Iran.