There’s no way it won’t go to Euston they’ve dug a massive **** hole! And a huge amount of work driving in piles and stuff

it’s never getting to the North though, is it.

Define “the North”…

Define “the North”…

Watford?

Hunt said this morning: ‘I can’t see any foreseeable circumstance in which HS2 won’t go to Euston’

Given this countries track record on foreseeable circumstances over the last ten years, I’d say its all thats left to make it the complete white elephant it has so clearly always been, so pretty much a nailed on certainty

I see operation ‘save nadhim’ is going down well

Just the 400+ majority pic.twitter.com/fCXg3tO0cp

— AndyinBrum gratefull im not Space Karen (@AndyinBrum) January 25, 2023

So who is it that has calculated that if there was a general election tomorrow Labour would have a more than 400 seat majority, and the Tories would be down to just 23 seats making them the fourth largest party behind the LibDems?

And more I importantly what is the point of these fantasy figures? To discredit pollsters?

I reckon generally speaking the pollsters have probably got it fairly right, they are simply too many polls consistently showing broadly the same result.

When asked how would they vote if there was a general election tomorrow I feel confident that Tory support is probably in the mid to high twenties and Labour support is probably in the mid to high forties.

Although if there was an actual election tomorrow I am also confident that some people who are currently not prepared to commit themselves would in the event vote Tory. Which is why I think the actual Labour lead would likely be around the 15% mark.

I don’t understand the point of talking about the Tories being down to 23 seats when that is so obviously not going to happen.

Edit:

I see operation ‘save nadhim ’ is going down well

The PeoplePolling poll which have posted shows absolutely no change in Tory support from the the same poll a week ago. So according to that poll the Nadhim Zahawi story has had no effect on Tory support.

So who is it that has calculated that if there was a general election tomorrow Labour would have a more than 400 seat majority, and the Tories would be down to just 23 seats making them the fourth largest party behind the LibDems?

That’s using the Britain predicts mrp model on the people polling data, modified version of electoral calculus, which was the most accurate at predicting 2019 GE & last 2 sets of locals

Who would win if an election was held today?

The PeoplePolling poll which have posted shows absolutely no change in Tory support

That’s because the dks are shifting to Labour, which like rod Stewart is showing that based on recent events, people want the tories out

Edit
It’s even worse for the tories using people polling numbers on electoral calculus

Bonkers figures, but don’t forget how much fptp can really skew results

I don’t understand the point of talking about the Tories being down to 23 seats when that is so obviously not going to happen.

Once you get to high 40% with opponents down to 20 odd % then you get wipeout in first past the post elections – hence the SNP getting almost all the scottish seats

So according to that poll the Nadhim Zahawi story has had no effect on Tory support.

I think that now, the tories are unlikely to see any further significant worsening of their polling figures but every new scandal also strengthens the anti tory feelings and makes any swing back to them also less likely.

yup.  20 odd % is the hard core tory voters who will never change their vote

It wasn’t that long ago that the thought of labour winning the next election seemed absolutely outlandish to me. An impossible dream.

However, unless they badly shoot themselves in the foot, Labour are almost certain to form the next government.

Trouble is… I’m still feeling very downbeat about quantifiable, positive change happening in the UK this decade really. With the best will in the world and even if luck is on their side, Labour are facing an absolute sh*t storm. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they only win one term then get burnt by the absolute mess the country is in and a Tory government are back in again straight after.

Even if Labour win the next 2 elections, their work will really have hardly just begun to turn things around.

What a bloody mess.

I would put money on ‘my’ tory MP sill getting 50%+ vote come the election. He managed to get 50% in 1997 and has increased since then. I am surrounded by tory ****.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they only win one term then get burnt by the absolute mess the country is in and a Tory government are back in again straight after

While any incoming Labour government will have one hell of a clean up job to do after inheriting an absolute car crash, what do you think the defeated Tory party will do after their expected electoral wipeout?

1. Have an orderly leadership election and then unite behind that leader?

2. Commence bloodletting like we’ve never seen before and Unleash full-on factional warfare, fighting like rats in a sack?

If and its a big if the wipeout does happen ( they only have to recover 5%or so to avoid it) then I expect the tories to split with a chunk joining labour and a chunk going of to UKIP ( or whatever its called now) leaving a rump “real tory”party

That would then leave space on the left for an actual leftish party

I think it’s far more likely that the entire party just purges the few (relatively) sane people left and goes full UKIP under the leadership of one of total fruitloop ERG ‘Spartans’. Braverman would be my bet, if she keeps her seat

You just know that when they lose the election, the conclusion they’ll reach is that they weren’t Brexity/anti-immigrant/right wing enough.

This next election can’t come soon enough

I don’t understand the point of talking about the Tories being down to 23 seats when that is so obviously not going to happen.

Once you get to high 40% with opponents down to 20 odd % then you get wipeout in first past the post elections

Yeah I understand how first past post works, I am asking what is the point of suggesting that the Tories will get 21% when that will clearly not happen. There will not be just 23 Tory MPs after the next general election.

The Tories have never polled less than 30% in 200 years and whilst I recognise that they are in dire straits it is pointless exaggerating and coming up with fantasy figures.

There are clearly a lot of people who currently are not prepared to say that they would vote Tory if there was a general election tomorrow but will do precisely that when the general election eventually comes.

I can’t believe that I am having to argue that the idea of the Tories only having 23 MPs is daft!

Yip. As soon as a general election is called, the right wing press and the Tory campaign social media misinformation team will crank into action

The press will run stories about Labour wanting to rejoin the EU so that they can open our borders to Transgender, Muslamic,terrorist rapists who will be put up in a 5 star hotel when they arrive, then get given a house and a big telly so they can sit on benefits while simultaneously taking your job (and probably grooming children)

It’ll work and ‘disgusted of Tunbridge Wells’ will vote Tory, the same as they always do

As long as Labour end up with a working majority, I don’t care how many seats the Tory party end up with

I would put money on ‘my’ tory MP sill getting 50%+ vote come the election. He managed to get 50% in 1997 and has increased since then. I am surrounded by tory ****.

When even the plastic scotsman has turned against you there’s a chance that Mr 50% may not get re-elected.

I’m surprised they didn’t go with “Work sets you free” slogan

In the last US presidential election, it was the mobilisation of disenfranchised voters who swung the election. Now while the next UK election may not need them to bring labour to power, they could be significant in some constituencies like mr 50% and effect the margin of overall victory.

Some more analysis of the polling would be interesting.

How many trad tory voters are changing to labour (if any), how many are just not intending to vote?

How many mythical swing voters who voted tory at the last election will change to labour?

What are the voting intentions of people who didn’t vote last time around? Do they still feel disenfranchised, are they motivated by any party or are they motivated to just get the tories out?

It’ll work and ‘disgusted of Tunbridge Wells’ will vote Tory, the same as they always do

They always will though but that’s not the problem.

It’s when ‘absolutely skint of Nottingham’ vote’s Tory that there’s a real issue. At this point in time, Labour are offering those people nothing, whereas the Tories will offer them nothing but give them someone to blame. It works well for them.

When even the plastic scotsman has turned against you there’s a chance that Mr 50% may not get re-elected.

As I said, I am willing to put money on him getting re-elected. Fancy a £1,000 bet?

It’s when ‘absolutely skint of Nottingham’ vote’s Tory that there’s a real issue. At this point in time, Labour are offering those people nothing, whereas the Tories will offer them nothing but give them someone to blame. It works well for them.

The Guardian did some polling in individual constituencies a good while back that showed that every single one of the ‘Red Wall’ seats would be returned to Labour if there were elections. That was long before the latest freefall in the polls.

Remember that most of these new Tory MPs up here are sat on paper-thin majorities (my own new Tory MP has a majority of 105) so all that’s required is a tiny percentage swing and they’re gone

Everyone up here can see that ‘Levelling Up’ was just a bollocks soundbite and that they were conned. None of those Tories will be here in two years time and they all know it.

showed that every single one of the ‘Red Wall’ seats would be returned to Labour

Yup, in fact the Labour lead in the ‘red wall’ seats is currently significantly higher than the national Labour lead :

Latest Red Wall Voting Intention (23 January 2023)

And it’s worth noting that every one one of those red wall seats, where Labour now have a huge lead over the Tories, currently has a Tory MP.

We won’t see the Tories reduced to 23 seats in 18 months time but we will see exposed as a lie the repeatedly made claim that Labour can’t win a general election without Scotland.

I suspect that a fair few SNP supporters will be disappointed at the sight of the Tories losing a general election.

FFS Ernie – why that old canard?  its nonsense

its nonsense

Yup, but it doesn’t stop people coming out with it:

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/starmer-doesnt-have-a-hope-of-replacing-johnson-if-he-cant-win-back-once-loyal-scots-euan-mccolm-3396372

And still less than 6 months ago the claim was being made that Scotland was crucial to Labour if they are to form a government:

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/labour-must-win-24-seats-27746332

The reality is that Labour could lose every single seat in Scotland and still form a government with a very comfortable majority.

The old canard is that Scots will be upset if the tories lose.

I agree about the scots seats – very rarely does it matter who Scotland votes for – it really makes no difference to who wins the westminster majority and in the event of a hung parliament the SNP will always vote down tories

The old canard is that Scots will be upset if the tories lose.

I don’t generalise when talking about a nation.

You must have surely heard the argument that the Tory landslide victory at the last general election made the case for Scottish independence even stronger?

Based on that I think my comment concerning that I suspect a fair few SNP supporters might be disappointed at the sight of the Tories losing the next general election is a reasonable one.

Aye right!

You underestimate how much the tories are loathed by the independence movement and while there is no love for labour there is no movement in the polls SNP to labour to back up your point.

SNP run at high 40s in the polls and have done so for many years.

You do realise the scotsman is a staunchly unionist tory paper ad the record a labour supporting unionist paper?

there is no movement in the polls SNP to labour to back up your point.

I have no idea what you are referring to. I have just made the point that Labour can win a comfortable majority at the next general whatever happens in Scotland.

I haven’t suggested anything about a movement in the polls from SNP to Labour. In fact I am saying whatever happens in Scotland will be fairly irrelevant to the outcome of the next general election. It is very unlikely to be on a knife edge.

You do realise the scotsman is a staunchly unionist tory paper ad the record a labour supporting unionist paper?

And? I haven’t suggested that the argument which was put forward in those links was a valid argument.

In fact I said the complete opposite.

You obviously read my post because you commented on it but you apparently missed this:

we will see exposed as a lie the repeatedly made claim that Labour can’t win a general election without Scotland.

You were saying a fair few SNP voters prefer a tory westminster government to labour.

i am pointing out there is actually not a shred of evidence to suggest this and that its a unionist canard.  I have never heard this by any scots independence supporter or not.

Find a single non unionist source to suggest this.

And?

When talking about scottish politics you need to be aware of the bias of your sources.  I am not sure if you are aware.

we will see exposed as a lie the repeatedly made claim that Labour can’t win a general election without Scotland.

I agreed with you on that several posts ago

You underestimate how much the tories are loathed by the independence movement

Once labour are in power and the Scots don’t have the Tories to despise I reckon there’s a high chance that labour will begin to chip away at the SNPs hegemony and independence will be forgotten about. There’s nothing like a bit of feel good factor to defuse nationalist sentiment.

You were saying a fair few SNP voters prefer a tory westminster government to labour.

I used the word suspect. I have no idea. I don’t talk to Scottish nationalists nor do I make much effort reading what they say. The only person banging on about the issue that I really hear is you.

If you reckon that all Scottish nationalists will be cock-a-hoop at a Labour landslide victory next general election then that’s great. It will still prove my point about not over-inflating the importance of Scotland.

Scotland really really isn’t half as important as you seem to think it is. It represents only 8% of the UK population.

Although you seem to mention Scotland in 95% of your political comments! 😆

So the Guardian / Observer are reporting Sunak was told in October “that the tax issue involved a significant sum of money and was not a trivial accounting error”

Downing St continue to deny and IIRC he also denied knowing at PMQ’s. It’s unnamed sources but the papers are usually pretty robust in checking, so who’s telling lies and what is the penalty for misleading parliament if it’s Sunak?

I suspect Sunak’s wording will have been careful not to mislead parliament… (eg new “information has come to light”… which doesn’t mean that he didn’t already have that information himself, or 90% of it)… but the public know what’s what, and they know what he and his party are about. They want them gone.

what is the penalty for misleading parliament if it’s Sunak?

Nothing.  It has to be proven to be deliberate and IIRC any censure goes to a vote of the whole parliament.  Its obvious he was at best being “economical with the truth”

Interesting how many leaks are coming out tho.  Rival camps briefing?  civil servants just so browned off with the lies?

Zahawi sacked.

Dagnammitt – too slow!

So Sunaks line of “due process .  Wait for the investigation to be complete” did not last long

I’m guessing more lies to come out.

Edit – I now see that the investigation was completed this morning.  That was rather quick.