I do believe he is most likely guilty on the other hand in an African context especially south African context his explanations don’t seem that daft.
I have lived in several african countries and on two occasions in South Africa and have visited at least many times when not living there.
I had someone coming in through the tiny bathroom window(all the others where protected by metal bars) and ended up with a knife against my troat.
I have had armed guards in front of the house, seen people with sticks and knives under their pillows, used to have a panga under my desk in the office. Have stayed behind 15 feed electric fences.
I cycled with peper spray tied to my handlebars and trained on grabbing it quickly, many friend ride with it and or knives some with guns.
Withe South africans are scared to a certain degree rigtly, guns are all around and not seen as strange. As a result on many attacks and often a stap or shoot first policy from robbers people don’t wait it can cost your live. Many have already lost their lives meaning quite some are scared senseless living on the edge and pronen to nervous over reactions. Family members have been shot before been mistaken by intruders.
You learn to live with the constant fear, you try and learn to ignore I know hear them again but I would just sleep through gunshots as it was just a daily thing and rather normal and most likely 500m or one 1-2k away so wouldn’t get to me. Its a beautifull place Africa and in specific South Africa but some parts of it are so bedly messed up.