Nigel! Farage!

You mentioned earlier that you believed voters in Clacton would return Farage with a greater majority, but no one seems to have polling evidence to support that.

I can’t predict election results, I said that I suspected his majority in Clacton would increase significantly, which I base on polling data. Six months ago Reform UK received 14% of the UK vote, all the recent polls are giving them over 20%.

Don’t you think it would be surprising if Clacton bucked the national trend? Sure Nigel Farage might have personally become more unpopular with voters in Clacton but how likely do think that is?

A lot of people put the whole of Reform UK’s popularity down to the appeal of Nigel Farage, didn’t someone on this thread earlier describe him as the most popular politician of the last 15 years?

Personally I think that Nigel Farage’s personal appeal to voters is grossly exaggerated but it is undoubtedly an element behind the rising popularity of Reform. Which is why I think Labour should be focusing their attacks on him. As I said earlier imo he is an intellectual pygmy and he doesn’t stand up well when he is properly challenged.

IMO one of the reasons for his relative success is that he appears to be rarely challenged directly. I would love to see him on BBC Question Time alongside some other competent guests. I reckon that he could be destroyed in front of TV cameras, after all BBCQT destroyed Nick Griffin’s political career. Although Farage is probably too smart to take unnecessary risks.

IMO one of the reasons for his relative success is that he appears to be rarely challenged directly. I would love to see him on BBC Question Time alongside some other competent guests.

He is very good at blustering and having a hissy fit about answering questions defaulting to media bias etc. Which then allows his fans to excuse away why he just got his arse handed to him.

didn’t someone on this thread earlier describe him as the most popular politician of the last 15 years?

No, they described him as the most successful. Personally I’d say most influential as he’s been pushing the agenda in this country for years and is largely responsible for the disaster that is Brexit and the nationalist populism it unleashed.

I’m sure he’s very ‘popular’ with a small but vocal minority of voters, who seem to love him, but he’s absolutely despised by far more

IMO one of the reasons for his relative success is that he appears to be rarely challenged directly. I would love to see him on BBC Question Time alongside some other competent guests.

QT having extremists on ‘for balance’ is a huge mistake, a mistake that has been made before. You have a short memory.

EDIT…

Also , he was on QT  the other week…

Fairy nuff, I rarely see Question Time these days and although I have seen Farage many times on QT in the past (in fact wasn’t there an outcry a little while back because he has been on QT more times than anyone else?) I wasn’t aware that he had been on recently.

I did make the point that he needed to be a guest alongside capable people. I don’t think he is a very high calibre intellectual. I have an enduring memory of him being publicly humiliated by Leanne Wood of Plaid Cymru in front of TV cameras.

I get your angle, Ernie, Farage is reprehensible, and that’s putting it nicely!

But I hypothesize that it’s the over exposure he’s been gifted by the British media over the years that’s given him so much ‘power’, be that perceived or actual.

That’s the problem with losing control of the narrative… facts and logic no longer matter, and it just becomes a competition between those who can shout loud enough, what they are actually shouting is of minor significance.

I don’t think he is a very high calibre intellectual.

Really? What, exactly, drew you to that conclusion? Enquiring minds want to know.

You can’t put out the fire of right wing populism by “challenging” their “facts”. It only serves as the petrol of increased exposure. You have to address the perceived problems of the public, as well as the real ones, that they claim to be able to address. Neither of which can be done quickly, and even if you succeed new “problems” can be jumped on and magnified by the con artists. There is a reason that the problem hasn’t gone away over the last century, the embers are always there waiting to be fanned by someone.

You have to address the perceived problems of the public, as well as the real ones, that they claim to be able to address.

Unfortunately nobody is trying. A big ‘problem’ is immigration but instead of addressing it by continually explaining why we need it and why it is a good thing for the next 4 years to get a general better understanding Starmer is just joining in and claiming to lower it.
He could also explain why people are claiming asylum, what they are leaving behind and why and that n% get rejected very quickly while the other n% get accepted although it takes too long which is to be fixed making process better for claimants while also saving money (it is getting fixed isn’t it?)
Not going to work for the true racists but then nothing does, but it would help for the ill informed.

Take the immigration ‘problem’ away and that is a fair bit of wind removed from the sails of the populist boats.

That’s just telling people they are wrong. I mean, they are, but it’s difficult to get that right without just fanning the flames.

and is largely responsible for the disaster that is Brexit

I think that dubious crown still belongs to Gove and Johnson, without them, the leave campaign would’ve been led by political eccentrics – like 1975, the stay out camapign led by Powell, and Benn.

 but instead of addressing it by continually explaining why we need it

The essential intellectual underpinning of anti immigration is racism, if you tell folks that foreigners are good for the economy what they take from that is “My job is going to some-one who is cheaper than me and will work longer hours than me, and is disposable”.

The essential intellectual underpinning of anti immigration is racism, if you tell folks that foreigners are good for the economy what they take from that is “My job is going to some-one who is cheaper than me and will work longer hours than me, and is disposable”.

So you can’t beat them which is why Starmer has joined them?

Led by Donkeys are doing God’s work in Clacton – hopefully it’s causing a few of the people who did vote for him to stop & think.

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I described Farage as the most successful politician of the last 15 years.

He delivered the disaster of Brexit against the established view and used it to reveal an undercurrent of bigotry and prejudice he has been mining ever since, along with others.

He has shaken UK politics to its core through Brexit and the established parties still do not know how to deal with this new era. Post-truth is a term that has gone out of vogue these days. But it is entirely accurate. It isn’t about facts or truths any more for a huge swathe of society. It is about feeling and fear. And the RW press have been fuelling those for decades. Now social media allows populists to tell different lies to different people in a targeted manner. If anyone makes the link and exposes the lie, they are shouted down as unpatriotic.

This is Farage’s true achievement. It has made him a very rich man.

Take the immigration ‘problem’ away and that is a fair bit of wind removed from the sails of the populist boats.

Yep….. This is the only way to defeat them, like the EU it wasn’t a thing getting continual media coverage,the odd moan but wasn’t the most important burning issue on peoples minds.

The biggest giggle is that ineffective handling of it over the years is making it a much more visible than ever before with ‘the boats’ with a generation of people now routinely being endlessly spoon fed videos over their cornflakes every day tailored
for their entertainment by an algorithm that thinks you like seeing boats and shouty people at least twice a day in between adverts.

I don’t think he is a very high calibre intellectual.

.

Really? What, exactly, drew you to that conclusion? Enquiring minds want to know.

My conclusion, although I confess that I don’t take a huge interest in him as a person, is based on seeing how he performs when he is effectively challenged. His standard response when he is embarrassed, feels awkward, or doesn’t know what to say, is a hearty laugh. You will invariably see Nigel Farage laughing when he doesn’t know what else to say or do, which appears to be a lot of the time.

I rarely have any interest in what Farage has to say but I did watch his press conference when he announced that he would be standing in the general election. I was struck by how talentless he was in his delivery and in dealing with questions, it involved a lot of laughing when he didn’t know what to say next or to quickly cover up for a dumb comment he had just made – the usual “I’m joking of course”.

I have previously referred to the time when Leanne Wood made Farage look a **** on national TV and more recently even Keir Starmer has publicly humiliated him in the House of Commons.

Having said all that I think  Nigel Farage’s low calibre intellect is one of the things which probably appeals to his  hardcore and more fanatical supporters. They want someone who doesn’t speak hard-to-understand stuff and makes them feel good by showing them that he knows how to hold a pint of beer.

But those people represent a fairly tiny section of the electorate imo, his influence is now growing far beyond that base which is why I think he is particularly vulnerable when effectively challenged.

He delivered the disaster of Brexit against the established view

No he didnt. He did it in coalition with a large proportion of the tory party, a smaller portion of the labour party and a large part of the press.

He is part of the establishment albeit the part which wants to sell the country off to its mates.

So you can’t beat them which is why Starmer has joined them?

It has a long and undistinguished pedigree 

The essential intellectual underpinning of anti immigration is racism, if you tell folks that foreigners are good for the economy what they take from that is “My job is going to some-one who is cheaper than me and will work longer hours than me, and is disposable”.

Unfortunately nobody is trying.

In England no one is trying.  IN Scotland this route has been taken and taken consistently by the SNP and Greens – and the result is almost no anti immigrant rhetoric by tories or labour either and Farage and his band of racists have almost no traction here

The experience from Scotland tells us that Farage and calling out his racism works.  Farage is a pariah here.

This Times piece (readable if you push it through 12ft), thinks that Reform could win a pretty sizable chunk of seats in 2026 Scottish elections

They are polling at around the threshold for gaining any seats.  7%  If its using the same sort of polling data as the other polls I have seen then its making huge assumptions.  The faragists have only ever won one elected person in Scotland IIRC- with 7% of the vote in a european election.  The real chances of them winning seats in Holyrood is low – and if they do it will be a handful only

I can’t read that article.  Its behind a paywall

Farage is according to the same daft polling going to be a major player in government in Westminster.  In Scotland they might win a few seats for the first time

The experience from Scotland tells us that Farage and calling out his racism works. Farage is a pariah here.

Are you sure that it has anything to do with Farage being a racist?

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/why-reform-could-become-the-third-most-popular-party-in-scotland-pgpzhnjrt

Edit : I’m surprised the link doesn’t go through the paywall

Edit 2 : This should. :

https://archive.li/2024.11.24-013437/https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/why-reform-could-become-the-third-most-popular-party-in-scotland-pgpzhnjrt

Yes.

Nickc – I got into the article.  Ta for the 12 ft link.  Its just a stream of nonsense

Unionism receives less attention than nationalism because unionism enjoys the banal quality of familiarity.

Utter nonsense.  anything on independence from the SNP is given one quote in the press, then replied to by 3 quotes from unionist parties.  Unionism gets a far greater and more favourable press as shown by reputable research

Typically, of course, unionism prefers not to speak of, or make a big deal about, its victories.

Laughable

Its a nonsense piece full of if buts and maybes and shows a huge lack of understanding.

That is what Reform, tantalisingly, offers. It is the “scunner” vote and a natural home for all those who despair of the parliament’s creation and record alike. Previously, the Conservatives were the closest thing to a home this vote had but the Tories have, for understandable electoral reasons, made their peace with devolution. Deep down, many Conservatives only accept it grudgingly but they understand that Holyrood’s existence is the settled will of the Scottish people

Wrong – the tories embrace holyrood because its fair voting sytem saved them from total wipeout.  they know that the PR for all Scottish elections has kept them in the game .  The levels of votes that he tories get in Scotland would have them with almost no representation under a FPTP system

Holyrood is liked by the vast majority of the country

Its just a stream of nonsense

Is this nonsense too?

In council by-elections in Glasgow last week, Reform won 13 per cent of the vote in Maryhill and in Drumchapel and Anniesland, and an eye-opening 18 per cent in the Glasgow North East ward.

the prediction in that laughably biased piece from a well known right wing hard unionist commentator is that best case for Farage he gets 12 seats.  of 159.  Best case.

You forgot the caveat in the article – very low turnout in council by elections.  ~they still didn’t win a single seat. ( IIRC)

Holyrood is elected on fptp with region list top ups to get proportionality  This means that getting 10 -18% in a few wards will NOT translate into seats.  You have to get above around 7% across the entire region to get representation.  So that stat is pretty meaningless

So the Fargists might get a handful of holyrood seats if they continue to climb in the polls against a perfect background for a protest party with the greens having wasted all their political capital, the SNP looking tired under an unispiring leader and beset by numerous over blown scandal, a tory party in disarray and a labour party at war with its masters in Westminster

perfect conditions for a protest vote, Best case for the faragists is they get a handful of seats.

Reform UK ‘bullish and optimistic’ as polls predict success in Scotland

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/01/reform-uk-bullish-and-optimistic-as-polls-predict-success-in-scotland

Reform UK membership jumps 10% in Scotland

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24818855.reform-uk-membership-jumps-10-scotland/

membership north of the border jump by 10% in recent days, taking them to 5,844.

yes we do have a few racist nutters here too.    so they gained 580 new “members”  clearly a mass movement going to take over the country

Sucess on a huge scale *rolleyes*

Recent polling puts party above 10%, which could result in up to 12 MSPs at next Scottish parliament elections

Now remind me again what % of the vote reform get / poll in england?  How many seats they are predicted to win?

You also forgot that other polling shows that if Farage gets into government in Westminster its a huge boost to the independence movement taking the % of folk who want independence to 60% with only 30+% against.

At the last GE the Reform party across the UK gained 4.1 million votes, some 14.3% of the electorate, and won 5 English seats, whereas in Scotland they obtained 167,000 votes, some 6.9% of the Scottish electorate, and gained zero seats.

 Best case for the faragists is they get a handful of seats.

and

Farage is a pariah here.

Are incompatible with each other. It’s taken Farage 8 attempts to get to Parliament, he has faced as much as an electoral challenge in England as you claim he faces north of the border and all the same voices have over the years said all the same things as you are now; and yet; here he still is, the message hasn’t changed in all those years.

The last attempts didn’t have trump and musk behind him and social media clouding the mix. Its more now that he is being taken told how to play this by the worlds richest idiot

he has faced as much as an electoral challenge in England as you claim he faces north of the border

No he hasn’t – the stats do not lie.  He polls less than half up here as in england  His party has only once won a seat at any level.  He is actively opposed by the scots government parties  Swinney recently called him a traitor.  he is a fringe politician here at best and last time he tried to campaign here he got run out of town.  Reform do not campaign up here because they know they will meet furious opposition and have little support to counter it.  Its much easier to get into holyrood as a minority party than Westminster – You can get representation in Holyrood with around 7% of the vote.

The electoral challenge is MUCH easier because of the PR systems we use but he still has never managed to do it

You can be a pariah to the vast majority with the support of a small number of folk.

Scottish Reform voters are easy to identify as the usually have ‘No Surrender’ and red hand of Ulster tattoos and can be found in the home end at Ibrox on Saturdays and will happily use any platform to maintain their grievance politics, particularly to wear an orange sash, bowler hat and light bonfires in July.

The electoral challenge is MUCH easier because of the PR systems we use but he still has never managed to do it

Honestly TJ you sound like the folks I used to canvass with 5 or more years ago in Heb, they used to say all the same things. I think the traditional bet is a Greggs sausage roll isn’t it?

Are Reform going to be subject to the same rules as other political parties ever?

The experience from Scotland tells us that Farage and calling out his racism works.  Farage is a pariah here.

In Wales he’s getting  good ratings after 26 years of abject Labour rule resulting in horrendous education and health services and of course the hugely unpopular 20mph limit.  Senedd elections in 2026 should be interesting.

He polls less than half up here as in england

I would not dispute that Scotland is not fertile ground for Nigel Farage, I previously suggested three reasons for this. What I would dispute though is your claim that this is because Scots see him as a racist.

Your apparent claim that Scotland experiences significantly less racism and bigotry than England and Wales is not particularly convincing imo.

Are Reform going to be subject to the same rules as other political parties ever?

Not whilst they are a ‘mere’ limited company.