Liz! Truss!

The review of the anti-obesity regulations is a bit of a concern to, I’m assuming we’ll end up with MacDonald’s (or whoever promises Coffey a board seat) running catering for the NHS.

US unemployment numbers announced yesterday were worse than expected; forecast that the fed will increase base rate by 75 bip next week.
This will impact uk economy and likely that BoE will follow.
trussonomics are all over the place and we won’t know the market reaction until the promised ‘fiscal event’.
One thing is certain – confusion and uncertainty will dominate and that’s bad news for markets.

but that’s not the bounce truss will have been hoping for, having just promised to spend >£150bn on energy prices fix

Well the YouGov poll 5 days before that one, which was before Truss became PM, gave Labour a 15% lead, it’s now dropped to 10% so it does suggest a possible Truss bounce.

Obviously overturning a 15 point lead within 5 days and in one go is very unlikely. It remains to be seen how things pan out but I very much doubt that Truss will be disappointed in reducing the Labour lead in YouGov polls by a third in 5 days.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/07/voting-intention-con-29-lab-44-6-7-sep-2022-aug

I don’t think it’ll be a linear trend. The bounce is just that and it will happen straight away. It will evaporate if she screws it up.

Maybe not but these things tend to be very much linear – it’s hard to get a lot of people to all change their minds in a short period of time, these things are generally more gradual.

For example it is generally accepted that if a government has huge majority/share of the vote that opposition won’t be able to overturn that majority and form a government in just one general election, it will take a couple. Certainly UK political history shows that tends to be the case, the only exception in modern history is 1945 and that was with the equally exceptional historical background of the end of a global war.

I’m not predicting anything but I do think slashing the Labour lead by “only” a third in 5 days won’t cause Truss to lose any sleep. The new energy price cap was due October 1st, I expect further possible popularity benefits for the Tories as the appeal of a two year price freezes cap sinks in. Of course there will still be plenty of opportunities for the Tories to screw up, and no doubt they will, but I think personal blame directed at Truss will take a while, and how well Labour are able to exploit that remains to be seen.

I think molgrips might be right.. It’s normal to expect a blip like this… Give it a few months ’till she starts stuffing it up.. She is just riding a wave at the moment.

I suspect a lot of it will have to do with how the press treat her in the next few months.

https://www.ft.com/content/e5dac84e-dabf-4408-8d65-1db0ecc315c3

Depressing but not surprising.

Johnson was pursuing this policy earlier in the year, before his fall.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/22/ignore-hysteria-scrapping-cap-banker-bonuses-right-thing-do/

The Government is coming under flack for considering tearing up rules on bankers’ bonuses. According to a leaked letter from the Prime Minister’s chief of staff Steve Barclay to Chancellor Rishi Sunak, this is part of a package of “deregulatory measures to reduce the overall burden on business”, take advantage of Brexit and attract firms to the UK

The continuation of removing all the safeguards introduced after financial crisis continues then. What else are they plotting while the country is officially in mourning? Expect the return of Poor Houses by the spring.

this is part of a package of “deregulatory measures to reduce the overall burden on business”, take advantage of Brexit and attract firms to the UK

Singapore on Thames.

They want to turn us into a tax haven for dodgy international capital with a deregulated sweatshop economy bolted onto it

This was the whole point of Brexit

It’s no great surprise that Truss is now an enthusiast for this. There’s nothing like the zeal of the convert

Average bounce for a new leader is 6 pts ( according to guardian)

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 32% (+1)
LDM: 9% (-1)

Via @DeltapollUK, 9-12 Sep.
Changes w/ 31 Aug – 2 Sep.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) September 14, 2022

With all the queen stuff clogging up the airwaves it’s hard to say much really

This was the whole point of Brexit

It’s no great surprise that Truss is now an enthusiast for this. There’s nothing like the zeal of the convert

Given the main rate of corporation tax has been wildly lower than it is now from 2013.

Ireland’s corp tax sits at 12.5% in the EU.

Brexit has nothing to do with it.

Of course it doesn’t.

You keep telling yourself that as they set about their shredding of workers rights, environmental controls and food standards… oh, sorry… I meant ‘bonfire of red tape’

It’s all about deregulation and a race to the bottom now we’re ‘free of EU bureaucracy’

Just have a look at their plans for Freeport’s for a taste of what’s coming, courtesy of ‘the opportunities of Brexit’

‘Shredding workers’ rights’? Kwarteng is considering lifting the caps on bankers’ bonuses (limited to 2 x income) to ‘stimulate the economy’. I can only imagine he’s talking about house-price inflation, Colombian export markets and the yacht economy.

Just have a look at their plans for Freeport’s for a taste of what’s coming, courtesy of ‘the opportunities of Brexit

You’re the one that called it a tax haven. Might be handy to look up a few taxation rates when making your case.

People form the UK blindly buy from countries that could easily be on sweatshop side of things.

Because they like cheap stuff.

It’s already a fact of globalisation.

People form the UK blindly buy from countries that could easily be on sweatshop side of things.

While this is a good point, driving another nation (ours) to become a sweatshop and tax haven state is not a good thing. Two wrongs don’t make a right.

Truss & Kwertang have both made it clear that there’s lots of pesky legacy EU workers rights that are holding back Britannia

https://uk.movies.yahoo.com/48-hour-week-could-reviewed-100705694.html

Sweatshops are all part of unchaining ourselves

Truss & Kwertang have both made it clear that there’s lots of pesky legacy EU workers rights that are holding back Britannia

But the link you provide says the complete opposite. It quotes the general secretary of the TUC Frances O’Grady as saying:

“Leading Conservatives – including (Business Secretary) Kwasi Kwarteng – repeatedly promised to make Britain the best place in the world to work and to enhance workers’ rights.”

O’Grady claims that Kwarteng lied as he promised to enhance workers rights.

Quite

Of course he lied. They have already said the working time directive is going to be removed and right to strike curtailed

O’Grady claims that Kwarteng lied as he promised to enhance workers rights.

Whoa! Hold on there!

Kwasi is absolutely delivering on his promise, he never said he’d enhance All worker’s rights did he? And Bankers are technically Workers… So I think the Truss Government have gotten off to a flying start; faced with the COL crisis, strikes across all sorts of areas, and various workers dealing with real terms pay cuts they’re working hard to remove the limits on (certain) workers pay.

People might foolishly think it’s that Nurses, Fire fighters, Teachers or Social workers need their pay and conditions enhancing, but they never think of the poor put upon Bankers do they?

[shakes head in disgust]

Of course he lied. They have already said the working time directive is going to be removed and right to strike curtailed

This is getting confusing – did he lie or is he delivering on his promises? Someone should tell the TUC as they definitely ought to know.

Kwarteng is considering lifting the caps on bankers’ bonuses (limited to 2 x income) to ‘stimulate the economy’.

That’s not going to go down well.

did he lie or is he delivering on his promises?

Can’t it be both?

He was Business secretary for over a Year before he became Chancellor, He even did a stint as Brexit Secretary under May; He can’t really claim rampant deregulation and chipping away at worker’s rights is a concept that never occurred to him, He was up to his neck in it before he was even offered his current post…

The real question is which promises? which lies? And to whom?

That’s not going to go down well…………

………… with people who already have a problem with bankers bonuses. Mr and Mrs Workingclasstory won’t care a fig.

That’s not going to go down well.

Which I’m sure is the only reason why Johnson ruled it out.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-boris-johnson-rules-out-lifting-curbs-banker-bonuses-2022-06-23/

However, Johnson told reporters the government would not go further in relaxing the rules for the finance industry, which is still unpopular among the public for causing the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.

It’s certainly an interesting policy to put forward as a priority in the present financial climate

interesting policy to put forward as a priority in the present financial climate

Kwarteng would argue that is precisely why it should be considered:

Ministers are known to be concerned that the City could lose out to other financial centres. The source noted that Paris is offering 30% income tax rates to attract investment banking professionals. They said the chancellor believes that UK tax revenues could be boosted if the City can attract more banking talent.

And apparently it would reduce costs for banks:

He is said to be sympathetic to City complaints that EU-wide rules imposed after the crash to cap bonuses leads to higher basic salaries, which increases costs for banks.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/15/kwasi-kwarteng-planning-to-scrap-caps-on-bankers-bonuses

We really do live in a society with **** up priorities.

which increases costs for banks

The current regulations aren’t in place to reduce employment costs for banks, they are there to reduce perverse rewards for high risk behaviour… because of the role of that behaviour in the banking crisis that resulted in government bailouts, loans and the societal costs still with us well over a decade later.

Which I’m sure is the only reason why Johnson ruled it out.

Despite the headline, he didn’t rule it out. He just said they were not currently doing it (despite the leaked evidence that they were preparing for it in government). Better to wait for a time when the public are paying less attention, perhaps…

Despite the headline, he didn’t rule it out.

Have a word with Reuters they claim that he did, beyond the headlines :

when asked if he was considering relaxing the rules. “We’re not doing that”.

I call that ruling it out. Whether he was lying is another matter. But he didn’t lift the bonus cap and he did rule out doing so.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-boris-johnson-rules-out-lifting-curbs-banker-bonuses-2022-06-23/

Jeepers Ernie. What Johnson said was certainly not ruling it out. Not doing it is now. Never doing it is ruling it out

Kwartang of course was lying. Remember brittania unchained?

Kwartang of course was lying.

Why are you telling me that? It was me that drew attention to Frances O’Grady claim that Kwarteng had lied!

As for Johnson everyone knows that he is a liar. I am quite simply pointing out that he ruled out lifting the bankers bonus cap, and however much he might have wanted to he didn’t.

What Johnson said yesterday means little to the Johnson of today. No bankers bonus yesterday, but bankers bonus today, no problem. Probably got a Churchill misquote he could whip out to distract, if questioned. I’m not sure Liz Truss comes armed with those, but as Continuity Johnson then doing the about face on any and all previous announcements will be de rigeur.

Lizzie track record on screaming, full 180 handbrake turns make Johnson look like a rank amateur

If you’re looking at people who’ve travelled the idealogical road from remain supporter to advocate of the hardest of hard Brexits then their number consist of Liz Truss, Lord Frost and… erm… no… that’s it.

These are my beliefs and if you don’t like them then I have others…

Just more Johnson. Not a single firmly held belief in anything other than their own advancement

In case you missed it today, in all your grief, Truss has reiterated that the UK will still not be instigating the customs checks required by the withdrawal agreement, so we’re still very much heading for a full blown trade war with the EU.

Oh and she’s sacked Zac Goldsmith as environment minister In whats expected will be an downgrade to UK animal welfare standards. A nodding dog will replace him who couldn’t give a shit about any of that green crap

Good old Brexit eh?

The cluster-*** that just keeps on ****ing us!

means little to the Johnson of today.

Erm, Johnson isn’t PM today. I’m happy to blame him for what he’s responsible for but it’s stretching it a bit to blame him for what the present PM is doing or is intending to do.

So far in the few days that Truss has been in office there is obviously little that anyone can go on, but going by the makeup of her Cabinet and little clues such as the suggested lifting of bankers bonus caps, it doesn’t bode well for those who might have hoped that her premiership would represent an improvement over Johnson’s.

Sadly imo it looks as if the opposite might be true. But next Friday’s mini budget will obviously be hugely revealing in that respect.

I have long considered that Truss would be a significantly worse PM than Johnson, in terms of the effect of a Tory government on the lives of ordinary people, not in terms of integrity, but I am actually becoming even more pessimistic as I am starting to believe that she might be idealogically driven to some degree.

I had always assumed that as self-serving careerist like Johnson she would not in anyway be idealogically driven. Indeed even more than Johnson she appears to be a political chameleon who adapts to whatever surrounding she finds herself in – anti-monarchy/pro-monarchy, LibDem/Tory, anti-brexit/pro-brexit, even Johnson can’t match that impressive record.

But the apparent economic direction of some of her policies seem to owe more to idealogical committment than a real evidence backed analysis, and even if they likely to be unpopular with voters. Banker’s bonus a case in point.

She’s just an empty vessel for the ERG to shout their demands into.

They hold all the power. Brexit and Johnson saw to that. There’s isn’t so much an ideology, more a cult. Now they’ll tell Lizzie when to jump and she’ll ask how high. In exchange for the job title she’ll be more than happy to bring in hardline policies even her predecessor would have balked at

She’s going to make Boris Johnson look like a socialist

I had always assumed that as self-serving careerist like Johnson she would not in anyway be idealogically driven.

I think this is a widely held but unfair view. Mark Littlewood of the IEA was an exact contemporary of Liz Truss and fellow LibDem, he wrote an illuminating, and persuasive, article in the Telegraph on her explaining how her journey is pretty consistent with her beliefs and it is the LibDems that have changed.

She’s just an empty vessel for the ERG to shout their demands into.

Yeah I know that is a widely held view but what’s in it for her? After all she’s got the top job now and I’m sure that winning the next general election is what her ego now demands. Introducing unpopular measures such as removing banker’s bonus caps during a cost of living crises isn’t going to help achieve that. And it’s hard to imagine that Johnson would do something that daft – I know that it’s popular to dismiss Johnson as an idiot but the one talent he had/has is his ability to read the public mood, that is the only real reason for his successful political career.

Still none of that really matters – whether Truss is her own woman or an empty vessel for the ERG makes very little difference. The consequences of her policies is what matters.

Mark Littlewood, Institute of Economic Affairs, The Telegraph ?, sounds legit to me, move along now.

Mefty

Yeah much of what you say rings true to me – not in the telegraph but elsewhere I’ve read that she was very much a free market LibDem, until this bit : “it is the LibDems that have changed”, which totally baffles me.

When Truss joined the LibDems it was a social democratic party, sure it had a right-wing but it also had a left-wing, overall it was social democratic.

Yes since then the LibDems have changed, but they have become far more Tory-like embracing neo-liberalism, ffs they even formed a coalition with the Tories!