Is May about to call an election?

Is a hung parliament now the most likely outcome?

That depends. YouGov suggesting it will be; other polls suggest a Tory majority of varying size.

The crunch issue seems to be what the youth turnout (as opposed to intention to vote) will be, as they’re disproportionately likely to vote Lab, but also disproportionately unlikely to actually vote, and we won’t know the actual turnout until the exit polls (which, of course, don’t reflect postal votes hence why they were wrong on Brexit).

Other factors:

Tactical voting – may be more of a facto this time round than in previous elections but very hard to quantify
Whether the status quo confers a benefit (because people vote for stability) or a disadvantage (because people who want change are more likely to make an effort and actually vote).

Is a hung parliament now the most likely outcome?

Very much doubt it. I’d say it’s best possible outcome, but still unlikely. I’m looking to the next election. The most realistic result is a tory victory with a small majority. This will tee things up for next time, labour can build on the superb campaign and policies they’ve presented this time round, and in time find a more publicly acceptable leader who the party can unite around. The tories will spend the next 2 years tearing themselves apart over brexit, and will then have to explain not getting a deal. They will also probably try to get rid of May, bringing further disapproval for imposing yet another PM that no one voted for. It all adds up to a labour landslide in 2021/2, with proper leftwing progressive policies, and post-brexit where they will have the freedom to implement them.

I’m looking to the next election

December?

Very much doubt it. I’d say it’s best possible outcome, but still unlikely. I’m looking to the next election. The most realistic result is a tory victory with a small majority. This will tee things up for next time, labour can build on the superb campaign and policies they’ve presented this time round, and in time find a more publicly acceptable leader who the party can unite around.

Agree. Corbyn has done a great job in presenting proper Labour policies and a lot of people like them (against the wishes/predictions of most of the Labour party)

Need to find a leader who hasn’t got so much baggage that the media can use against them but can continue to present the same policies.

Stop asking about majorities.

Jamba has decided on about 75-150 (as I recall – feel free to check) for May and that’s all you need to know.

😉

ratherbeintobago – Member

I’m looking to the next election

December?

Lollertrons 😆

It will never be that long

dazh – Member
imposing yet another PM that no one voted for.

Technically, no-one has ever voted for a PM(apart from MPs).

If May resigns – then what?

Boris…

How so? Sure, he might have been able to shoot one attacker, but assuming it was close range a knife is a far quicker weapon to wield, and he was outnumbered 3:1.

Steven Seagull would have dispatched twice as many in an instant.
I’ve seen him do it, on the telly

Very much doubt it. I’d say it’s best possible outcome, but still unlikely. I’m looking to the next election. The most realistic result is a tory victory with a small majority. This will tee things up for next time, labour can build on the superb campaign and policies they’ve presented this time round, and in time find a more publicly acceptable leader who the party can unite around.

Yes, I think I agree with this. Corbyn’s legacy will be adoption of policy that differentiates Labour from the Conservatives, and places them well for re-election under a less baggage-laden leader. It’s remarkable how little attention has been given to the fact that Labour has just ripped up 40 years of neo-liberal consensus, and made a successful job of selling it to the electorate.

Ironically, it’s quite similar to the job Kinnock did in the 1980s.

If its hung* & May resigns the tories will fight like oiled up vipers in a tub for a week or so until the bloodied victor emerges, Booris, Gove or equally unpleasant Raab?

If its a tory landlside and Corbyn resigns Labour will engage in a slow motion rutt that should see Cooper elected by Ed Balls day next year

* I still dont think that itll be anything other than a Tory victory tho

“There is no honest measure of success and failure other than success equals Labour gains, Tory losses and at least a tight finish with possibility of a minority government. Failure equals Labour losses, Tory gains and an increased Tory majority.”

Hard to disagree, surely?

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/neil-kinnock-success-labour-more-seats-and-possibility-governing

Not sufficiently investigated? Ok, what could more investigation have done? Short of random searches of his flat for chemicals (which I guarantee would have you lot up in arms about his human rights being breached) they could do nothing, nothing based only on his suspected intent.

One of the attacker’s neighbours has been reported in the press today stating that he spoke to them on Saturday afternoon as they were unloading a B&Q hourly hire van being used to move furniture –

“he was euphoric and wanted to know how he could hire a van”.

If this is true, the plan for Saturday night was put together in the late afternoon before B&Q shut and then actioned only 2-3 hours later. I’m dubious on whether any level of security or interception could have prevented the attack if these timings prove to be correct.

Hard to disagree, surely?

considering that Corbyn was supposed to make Labour ‘unelectable for a generation’ according to certain posters on here then youd say that anything other than a tory landslide would be good going

ultimately it is about winning so in that case at best you could say that Corbyn has helped shift the narrative

a hung parliament would be a good way of neutering the nastier elements of Tory government and be good celebrated among the rural fox community 😉

fully costed

It’s not. Much of it is based on the false assumption that both income tax and corporation tax revenue are perfectly inelastic – IMV they’re not.

If May resigns – then what?

Tories appoint someone new via their own internal process, same for all the parties.

It’s remarkable how little attention has been given to the fact that Labour has just ripped up 40 years of neo-liberal consensus, and made a successful job of selling it to the electorate.

I think that’s wishful thinking, the only reason Labour are doing well is the Tories under May are an utter shambles.

One of the attacker’s neighbours has been reported in the press today stating that he spoke to them on Saturday afternoon as they were unloading a B&Q hourly hire van being used to move furniture –

“he was euphoric and wanted to know how he could hire a van”.

If this is true, the plan for Saturday night was put together in the late afternoon before B&Q shut and then actioned only 2-3 hours later. I’m dubious on whether any level of security or interception could have prevented the attack if these timings prove to be correct.

what about the guy claiming on the news today that they had previously reported one of them to the anti-terrorism hotline

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-40159360/they-didn-t-get-back-to-me

so they had 2 years to check out this guy, not a few hours

while on R4 today the police stated they get >22,000 calls a year to the hotline, but dont have the resources to chase everything up?

I think that’s wishful thinking, the only reason Labour are doing well is the Tories under May are an utter shambles.

If ever we wanted evidence that Corbyn can’t win…

Postal vote filled in..

Wonder what the weather will be like on Thursday…

The most realistic result is a tory victory with a small majority. This will tee things up for next time, labour can build on the superb campaign and policies they’ve presented this time round, and in time find a more publicly acceptable leader who the party can unite around. The tories will spend the next 2 years tearing themselves apart over brexit, and will then have to explain not getting a deal. They will also probably try to get rid of May, bringing further disapproval for imposing yet another PM that no one voted for. It all adds up to a labour landslide in 2021/2, with proper leftwing progressive policies, and post-brexit where they will have the freedom to implement them.

Very much this.

while on R4 today the police stated they get >22,000 calls a year to the hotline, but dont have the resources to chase everything up?

Clearly lack of resources not helping. Wonder what the usual outcome of following every call up to conclusion is, what can they actually do other than add them to the list?

The young will fail to vote again then whinge and moan the babyBoomers have screwed their lives up.

wicki – Member
The young will fail to vote again then whinge and moan the babyBoomers have screwed their lives up.

quite possibly

I think that’s wishful thinking, the only reason Labour are doing well is the Tories under May are an utter shambles.

Agree. …and conversely the only reason there’s an election at all is because Corbyn is so utterly dreadful.

Counterfactual: If Ed Balls or David Milliband were Labour leader with a sane shadow cabinet May would lose by a landslide.

Corbyn’s unable to fill shadow ministerial posts, his own MPS reckon he’s abysmal. The other party leaders regard him as toxic. (Christ, the ‘fear’ of an SNP/Labour coalition has evaporated purely because Corbyn is so dreadful and nobody thinks the SNP would touch him with a bargepole.)

Corbyn has performed way better than anyone expected, but he’s still a disaster for the Labour party and that’s before he deselects all the moderate Labour MPs and changes the rules to make it easier to get fringe candidates into leadership elections.

He’s offering a vote-winning giveaway manifesto where everyone wins at the expense of a tiny minority which sounds good to the credulous, but the only reason he can do that is beacuse he thought he was going to lose and would never have to deliver.

what can they actually do other than add them to the list?

Assess, surveil, monitor, consider, prioritise and make a decision based on what they know.
Being on a list isn’t just one thing no matter how much people want to think it is. Also 22,000 calls is not 22,000 people in this climate you will have people making calls about people they hate or just not like the look of which means there will be more to work through with less resources.

Weather forecast to be terrible on Thursday. Could be bad news for Corbs.

wicki – Member
The young will fail to vote again then whinge and moan the babyBoomers have screwed their lives up.

It would be nice to see what 100% of the UK population thinks.

@ Molgrips: Or the other way round – pensioners can’t risk a chill after all.

nah the oldies ALWAYS vote, not much else to do !

I think that’s wishful thinking, the only reason Labour are doing well is the Tories under May are an utter shambles.

Disagree. May is not the problem with the Tories, it’s Tory policies that have been in place since 2010.
Yes, someone could probably lie better about it than May and sell it better, but the reason Labour are doing well is because the manifesto is popular and people are starting to see the reality of a lack of investment and they are objecting to the hollowing out of infrastructure.

The main thing is that they are starting to see that austerity politics isn’t working in the way it’s intended and investing is a real alternative.

they’ve already voted.

Assess, surveil, monitor, consider, prioritise and

do nothing because he hadn’t committed any criminal offences

I recon a dreary drab wet and windy day is bad for the incumbent, it’s all miserable mays fault! 😉

We all know your position, if you want that world move to Pakistan or maybe China.
You have absolutely no idea what people are doing behind the scenes, no idea of any of the build up to these attacks or much else. You have rampant speculation and the short sighted idea that you can fix everything with guns and prisons like an ape swinging a rock.

Assess, surveil, monitor, consider, prioritise and make a decision based on what they know.

So let’s imagine I’m definately an Islamist. I definately have a car, I definately have knives. Sometimes I buy knives in Tescos and legally drive them home in my car.

What ‘decision’ are you going to make?

What ‘decision’ are you going to make

. Surveillance and catching them scoping places out has apparently something used by police to ID other potential attackers
Obviously expensive and manpower heavy, which is tough in times of austerity

If May resigns – then what?

I reckon the knives are out already. She called an election with the express intention, and expectation, of a HUGE Tory lanslide. Well that ain’t going to happen.

Her campaign has been a disaster right from the off. She’s been arrogant and complacent, and the more people have seen of here, the more unpopular she’s become.

The Tory party will do what they always do… exactly what needs to be done. With utter ruthlessness. She’ll be gone within the blink of an eye, and forget your Boris or Gove. They’ll do what they always do. Expect someone unexpected.

nd conversely the only reason there’s an election at all is because Corbyn is so utterly dreadful.

For you yes, for many others he is doing a great job. He is offering a manifesto that many feel is the right direction (myself included). Clearly right wingers such as yourself won’t like it but then that doesn’t bother him/me.

catching them scoping places out

And we’ve seen the reaction on here when the police challenge someone with a camera who might well be ‘scoping places out’ haven’t we?

Imagine the intelligence value that would add even if he was under 24 hour surveillance? ‘the suspect went to London and walked around London Bridge, Big Ben and the Houses of Parliament and took some photos, then went to a pub near the borough market’

Can you really see anyone locking him up on that basis?