The article has some elements of truth wrapped up in healthy hyperbole to sell you something – this is money week after all. The other link is probably more interesting as it points to the wider debt perspective in the UK but sadly misses the other one that at the global level, gov debts are close to all time highs (we do not compete for borrowers money in isolation.).
Why does all this matter? We are in the process of a major (albeit slow) deleveraging as people, companies and governments pay down their debt levels. This is why the total debt figure is so important. This is creating a major policy headache for gov’s around the world. In most developed economies, the current policy mix is tight fiscal policy (although not as tight as austerity headlines would like you to believe) and ultra loose monetary policy. Put simply, if you increase money supply, this should lead to an increase in nominal GDP (ie real GDP plus inflation). But at the moment, the very large increases in Central Bank assets and the monetary base are not flowing through into higher output or income. Why, because what is called the velocity of money multiplier (crudely put, money supply x velocity = nominal income/output) has collapsed. There are various reasons for this, broken banks, people nervous and the high levels of debt outstanding (despite what STW naysayers claim).
So what is the problem? First policies are not working in the way that policy makers would like. So they keep adding more and more fuel to the fire. At some point however, the velocity of mone will pick up and then we risk a big rise in inflation. History is very clear on this. In the meantime, Gov’s will now repress themselves out of debt (keep interest rates below inflation) to “steal money” from savers to pay for our debts. This is an old trick. At some point during and/or at the end of the period there will be a large rise in inflation. The timing of this depends on the “velocity.” The money week article takes a relatively aggressive line on this (i think as the tone put me off) as it needs to sell you something!
But the basic message is very important when you consider pensions etc.
