How do you decide which crypto currency to buy?

Cool story bro.

Bit of an unexpected rally going on just now. Stockmarkets are down, gold is up.
This is what you would expect in a time of global uncertainty. I wouldn’t expect crypto to be on the up though.
So what’s happening with it? My theories were – average Russians buying in to hedge against the ruble falling, probably easier than trying to buy USD or euros just now, or oligarchs trying to hide some funds in bitcoin, but the trading volumes aren’t huge so maybe not.
Just a coincidence?

It’s rallying because the Russian state is buying into it ….

People are realising that your fiat currency can be worthless if the state (or others) decide via sanctions / whatever. Russians can’t access any money or pay for things. In a world of cryto this wouldn’t happen.

Stock markets are hard enough to interpret, but crypto seems like it has another level of ‘sentiment’ that massively influences the price. Trying to explain (let alone predict) movements of crypto seems impossible.

THIS IS NOT A BAD TAKE https://t.co/TK9wDgSO9z

— National Security Counselors (@NatlSecCnslrs) April 1, 2022

Staking UST on Anchor. 19.45% return. 15 billion dollars already staked.

Seams a no brainer. What’s the big risk here?

Luna/ust is totally ****. Thankfully never touched it.

Here we go hold on to your pants.
Bloodbath inbound US Stocks are getting hammered as well

People are realising that your fiat currency can be worthless if the state (or others) decide via sanctions / whatever. Russians can’t access any money or pay for things. In a world of cryto this wouldn’t happen.

I was going to reply to this, the. Read the rest of the post….

Stock markets are hard enough to interpret, but crypto seems like it has another level of ‘sentiment’ that massively influences the price. Trying to explain (let alone predict) movements of crypto seems impossible.

It’s almost like having a central bank in a stable country is a good thing to avoid losing a quarter of your savings in a week?

Wow, when it crashes, it REALLY crashes!

It’s almost like having a central bank in a stable country is a good thing to avoid losing a quarter of your savings in a week?

Yeah, that’s true. But if we were all using BTC (or some other crypto) to buy commodities like a loaf of bread, there would be inherent stability. It’s not a function of whether the currency is centralised or not.

In other news, the nice olive bread I like from Co-op was £1.40 last year. It then went up to £1.85 some time last year, and this morning I paid £2. If “a loaf of bread” is the metric we use for the value of currency, have my GBP savings decreased in value by 30% too*?

* Admittedly this change is over a year, not 4 days. The financial world’s getting **** by something, though.

My mate, who I mentioned having the aerial thing, now has currency based on buying a pair of virtual trainers and going for an actual run with his phone. He tells me he can make around $70-$100 per week with running every day for around 40 minutes. I don’t understand it at all, making money from exercising with your phone!?!?!?!

I suspect he may need to run to take his mind off his losses on the actual coins he holds.

In other news, the nice olive bread I like from Co-op was £1.40 last year. It then went up to £1.85 some time last year, and this morning I paid £2. If “a loaf of bread” is the metric we use for the value of currency, have my GBP savings decreased in value by 30% too*?

yes, it’s called inflation.

Your cash savings are worth less with inflation in that they can buy less, only inflation is measured against a basket of items, not just one item.

In other news, I note that coinbase have been in the news saying that customers’ money, held in accounts with coinbase can and will be used to settle the companies’ debts in the event of bankruptcy. That wouldn’t happen with RBS/Lloyds/HSBC etc!

Your cash savings are worth less with inflation in that they can buy less.

Yes, I get that. I was really just pointing out that it’s not just crypto currencies that are getting ****. Stocks, crypto, fiat. It’s all heading south.

That wouldn’t happen with RBS/Lloyds/HSBC etc!

That absolutely could happen! The only reason that traditionally wouldn’t happen is if those banks got bailed out by the UK govt. Remember Northern Rock? On the other hand, in the USA Bear Sterns and Lehman were allowed to fail and loads of people lost money.

That absolutely could happen! The only reason that traditionally wouldn’t happen is if those banks got bailed out by the UK govt. Remember Northern Rock? On the other hand, in the USA Bear Sterns and Lehman were allowed to fail and loads of people lost money.

Up to £85k invested per bank per person is insured against loss in the event of bankruptcy. Show me a crypto ‘bank’ with similar safeguards?

@thisisnotaspoon:

It’s almost like having a central bank in a stable country is a good thing to avoid losing a quarter of your savings in a week?

Or, alternatively, a central bank that’s been printing money like it’s going out of fashion, resulting in massive inflation which, this year alone, will devalue everything you’ve ever worked for, ever, in your entire life, by 10%.

Cryptocurrencies were born out of the fact that our banking system is corrupt and broken – as has been proven time and again.

And as for “quarter of your savings” – if you are dumb enough to put all of your eggs in one basket then you deserve what you get. 🙂

You have 85k worth of protection in a UK bank account under the FSCS.

My crypto is safe from exchange/bank bankruptcy, I can relax watching it drop to zero in my non-custodial wallet.

Inflation only devalues money you haven’t spent so to say that it devalues everything you’ve ever worked for ever in your entire life is utter nonsense.

Or, alternatively, a central bank that’s been printing money like it’s going out of fashion, resulting in massive inflation which, this year alone, will devalue everything you’ve ever worked for, ever, in your entire life, by 10%.

You know that’s not how inflation works right?

Everything you’ve ever bought* goes UP by (an a average of) inflation (depreciation asside), as does the value of your work. On average. House price inflation, used car price inflation, wage inflation (the value of your skills and qualifications), etc etc, all feed into it.

Meanwhile “inflation” (as a synonym for the measure of the falling value of a currency) of bitcoin is currently over 100% in the last 6 months.

Lay off the coolaid.

*Before someone accuses me of making light of the cost of living crisis and it’s extreme effects on those less well off, this is a thread about cryptocurrencies. I’m not the ones participating in one of the grossest excesses of late stage capitalism.

Meanwhile in the very shady world of NFTs many owners are selling NFTs to themselves at hugely inflated prices by taking out loans, then selling them again shortly afterwards to a regular buyer and trousering a nice profit. Try doing something similar with shares and see how you go on.

Cryptocurrencies were born out of the fact that our banking system is corrupt and broken

Shame then that they’ve been used to either 1. buy bags of white powder made in the china with the words “Not for human consumption” written on them, or 2 a scam to make a few people very wealthy of the backs of people who believe in get rich quick schemes.

Tulips all round then

Inflation only devalues money you haven’t spent so to say that it devalues everything you’ve ever worked for ever in your entire life is utter nonsense.

I’m pretty certain that my house value is going to fall if this inflation / cost-of-living crisis continues. I’m not sure my mountain bike is an appreciating asset long term. And when people sell off their guitars so they can pay the heating bill, my guitars will lose value too. So it’s hard to see which of my assets is not losing value. All the while, the cost of living goes up vs GBP. Doesn’t seem like utter nonsense to me.

I spent £1 on a loaf of bread 2 years ago at Asda, can’t remember exactly what type of bread it was. Said loaf has now long been digested, is inflation devaluing my £1 / now digested bread then?

Did you buy those things because they are assets that increase in value or because you want/need them to use? Not everything you buy is an asset that needs to magically increase in value forever. Most of the things you buy you will use and never sell. Those things have not been devalued by current levels of inflation.

Food being the perfect example 👆

Just bought some heavily discounted Tulips for £8 that would have cost me £7000 a few days ago. What’s the worst that can happen?

You could have spent the £8 on food and its value would have remained constant forever after you’d flushed it down the bog.

Or you could keep the food in the cupboard way past its use by date, then complain about it being a depreciating asset because noone will buy it from you.

But lets just look at Bit Coin value

-3.2% down today
-25.6% down over the past month
-34.8% down over the past year

If you link it to the loaf of bread analogies above, you’re looking at an effective 35% inflation rate!!

All indicators point to an oncoming recession.
Shares and Crypto will be left to the market and values will tank
Fiat will be propped up by Governments and Central banks

It’s bad news! I bought 150 euros worth of Luna at 2-5 euros each y’day figuring it was worth a punt on a coin that was worth 100+ USD a couple of days ago. Well, that 150 is history and looks like Luna is too. Folks bought into the idea it was a stable coin, so really, the fallout of this is rocking the entire crypto project. I bought in early and so while lost relatively large amounts of unearned income, looking at it now, I’m overall about 2k down this year given I FOMO’d on shitcoins and altcoins last October (totally buying the hype that Solana was the next Eth) but 7k up overall.

I was always aiming longer term at 2025+, and I don’t think crypto will go anywhere given NFTs, Metaverse, etc., but I’m not expecting getting back to ATH’s anywhere this year or possibly next. For me, crypto was my only chance of buying a house, so I tolerated higher exposure thinking that, given the 10% rises year on year, I was being priced out so hoped a windfall in crypto could at least mitigate the insanity of the housing market. . Looking at it today, I was wrong but we’ve been here three times in the past 18 months. HODL on, there’s no other choice. Folk who sank their entire savings into crypto got greedy I guess and they’ve been taken to the cleaners

Seems a bit quiet on this thread, I wonder why?

I decided to have a dabble to understand the mechanism for crypto and see what all the fuss is about so started by depositing EUR20 (GBP16.82) into Kraken on 2nd February which immediately became EUR19 when a fee was applied. I’m still not sure why I deposited in EUR but couldn’t find a way to deposit in GBP. My first buy was Terra Classic/LUNA (yes I know it went titsup) which gave me 0.42169 of a LUNA after yet another fee of EUR0.29 was applied.

I repeated the above with another EUR20 and bought 0.733063 Cosmos/ATOM with another set of deposit and transaction fees.

Fast forward to March 18th by which time Terra Classic had risen a bit and Cosmos had dropped a bit so I fortunately decided to sell which gave me GBP26.81 with a fee of GBP0.40 for Terra Classic and GBP15.22 with a fee of GBP0.22 for Cosmos.

My balance is now GBP41.41 so I’m up GBP7.77 and time to take my money out, oh yeah that will be a fee of GBP1.95 thank you very much.

So a small profit of just over a fiver but if I had held on to my holdings they would currently be worth bugger all for Terra Classic and GBP6.11 for Cosmos from my original investment of GBP33.64. What a ****show.

Were you expecting to pay off your house with your 40 Euro investment?

If so I can see why you would be disappointed. Unfortunately you’re about 7 years too late for that kind of return.

Thanks for that insight.

I’m still in.

It’ll bounce back.

Might buy some more what with prices being low.

**Your investment may go down as well as up**

Thanks for that insight.

Nae bother.

I’m still in.

It’ll bounce back.

Yeah, at some point. Probably.

I suspect there’s a decent chance we’ve seen the pump for this halving cycle and things will drift downwards until 2024.

However, there’s also a chance we could see a bounce up to $100K to $150k price sometime in 2023.

Or it could be the halving cycle no longer applies and both options could be wrong.

The only bot I’m running now is a BTC/ETH grid bot. Don’t fancy any other alt-coins for the moment.

Yeah, at some point. Probably.

I’m thinking 5-10 yrs, not short term gains.

Am I missing something from shinton?

Isn’t that a 17.3% ROI? (It’s quite late, I could have misread/miscalculated)

But if so, that’s pretty good, no?

If shinton had played with a bigger figure, the return amount would not have been so poor.

If shinton had played with a bigger figure, the return amount would not have been so poor.

And if he’d waited another couple of weeks it would have gone to the moon have been worthless.

there’s also a chance we could see a bounce up to $100K to $150k price sometime in 2023.

I can see you reckon the party’s over for this cycle. You could well be right and all we’ll see is the price drift downwards to around 20k (with alt-coins taking even more of a pounding) until the next halving in 2024.

Or the halving cycles no longer apply and something completely different could happen.

Or the halving cycles no longer apply and something completely different could happen.

The trouble with the halving methodology is (unless I’m missing something fundamental) is that each time it happens the computing power on the network drops as it renders older less efficient ASIC’s unprofitable so the difficulty of the mathematical problem has to be adjusted accordingly. Eventually when they hit 21 million coins in ~2040 and the halving ceases and the reward is dropped to zero you’re left with having to directly pay “miners” to process transactions which means either:

You have to pay for the existing energy consumption on the network in order to maintain the same level of security (not possible, given it costs thousands of £ in energy to process a single transaction at the moment)

Or…

You’re forced to reduce the complexity of the problem to a cost comparable to Visa, Swift, IBAN, etc. Which then leaves the system vulnerable to a 51% attack.

Which kind of brings it back to chevychase’s statement. Except it’s Bitcoin that pays for it’s own network to run, by printing money. The network is relying on an inter relation between Moors law, inflation* (halving’s Vs difficulty) and energy prices for it’s security.

Or, alternatively, a central bank that’s been printing money like it’s going out of fashion

*monetary inflation, the number of bitcoins goes up. Vs negative price inflation, the purchasing power of bitcoins increases, which is what drives the massive fluctuations, no one wants to sell/spend bitcoins while their price is going up, just like in a conventional economy you need that ~2% inflation to keep the economy ticking over.

Eventually when they hit 21 million coins in ~2040

Actually, I think it’s 2140.

This next halving cycle will be interesting. This is the cycle where institutional money has gotten involved so the level of sophistication going into the analysis is far higher (I would assume).

It could be this will have stabilising effect on the market.

However, as you said, the system still relies on a distributed network of miners and these miners will find their profitability cut in half which is obviously going to affect the network and price but maybe not to the extent we’ve seen in the past.

I’m torn on whether this cycle is over or not. On the one had, the returns have reduced each cycle but at the same time the cycle time has also lengthened. It seems a bit early for this cycle to be over to me, but then this could be the stabilising effect of the institutional money.

I guess we’ll know in two years time.