Housing bubble.

as i say every time broess … you have to live somewhere – dont forget that part – bit like the empty flat analogy you used the other day.

I have enough equity in my place now after 4 years of just paying the same as my rent would have been(which is a significant overpayment on my mortgage) that property prices would have to come down to a level that would have keys being lobbed back at mortgage co’s left right and centre by the short sighted.

and your other point about 1989… remember the average person forgets after 7 years. I reckon thats why since 1975 the oil industry has pretty much been an 8 year boom bust cycle….

Given up on the online value calculators – can’t get a number that’s anywhere near them agreeing with each other.

Estate agent coming round tomorrow…

as i say every time broess … you have to live somewhere – dont forget that part – bit like the empty flat analogy you used the other day.

The religious belief I’m referring to isn’t any rent/mortgage comparison, it’s the ‘ever rising prices’ thing.

London shot up in 2013 because of a wave of dirty foreign money and the introduction of government subsidy (Help to buy) + BTL becoming suddenly very popular (probably a combination of zero interest rates, dire pension returns and QE trying to find a home), NOT because of a massive and sudden increase in demand. Prices were dead flat 2008 – 2012 – and shot up in Q3 2013 for no apparent reason… 20% within a matter of weeks in my personal experience in SE26.

the bubble is now spreading out of London as people like me and wotsit on the estate agent thread bail out – in his case to take his cash and move north, in my case, the desperate hope I won’t be paying rent out of my pension…

This combination of sources of £££ will not continue ad infinitum for the next 25 years! Read the FT and Economist and look at the very serious concerns about global asset bubbles and the global economy for some perspective…

wotsit on the estate agent thread bail out – in his case to take his cash and move north,

North? Are you mad?

North? Are you mad?

i think he means Finsbury borders.

nor am i – im referring to the choice of remaining in rented property in fear of the property market crashing.

4 years(you were looking at the same time as me i remember) you have been waiting – where as that 4 years of rent has paid off 1/4 of the capital of my house.

Mean while ive had the security of living where i want to live and no fear of being lobbed out – and i can write in crayon on the wall if i wish.

house is a home not an investment and all that pish.

The religious belief I’m referring to isn’t any rent/mortgage comparison, it’s the ‘ever rising prices’ thing.

Thing is if over a long period of time they have been ever rising. Which isn’t a massive surprise when demand outstrips supply. For a period of sustained price fall then the UK would have to be subject to a big financial shock. Saying that as the commodities price collapses, then London will experience a slowing and possible slight reversal of prices, which with time will wash out over the UK. But a big re-adjustment then I can’t see that happening without a ‘shock’ event that can’t easily be predicted.

+1 to Trail_Rats post above.

the bubble is now spreading out of London as people like me and wotsit on the estate agent thread bail out – in his case to take his cash and move north, in my case, the desperate hope I won’t be paying rent out of my pension…

‘The Bubble’ – 2016. *****

2,567,987 hours / Horror / 19 February 2016

Director: Paul Greengrass

Synopsis: A huge influx of dirty foreign money into London eventually coalesces into an enormous, formless ectomorphic bubble, which consumes everything in its path. After engulfing inner city London and turning most of its inhabitants into propertyless goo without mortgage potential, the bubble expands to the edge of the M25 where it seems, momentarily to be contained.

Only the fearless hero Brooess can see the truth, that the bubble is a threat to the very survival of earth, the universe and everything, Will anyone listen or will Hertfordshire be next?

4 years(you were looking at the same time as me i remember) you have been waiting – where as that 4 years of rent has paid off 1/4 of the capital of my house.

You’re making massive (wrong) assumptions about my personal financial and employment circumstances actually… trust me, if I could have bought in 2013 (2, not 4 years ago) I would have done but for various reasons, I wasn’t able to get a mortgage at that time. Obviously if I’d known Osborne was going to create hyper inflation I would have bought earlier!

BWD – thanks for the ad hominem. It’s very childish, trying to score points with a stranger on the internet, given the very real damage being done…

My point is not so much about my own situation (in actual fact I’m more financially secure than I ever thought I would be at this age) but about the UK economy and the impact on it from all the money being sucked into the banks or to already wealthy people as mortgage and rent payments instead of being spent in job-creating consumption and investment… and also the insidious impact it has on our appetite for hard work and entrepreneurialism if it’s easier to just sit at home and ‘get rich’… Gordon Brown and Osbourne know us better than we know ourselves, it seems

Do some wider reading – FT and Economist for e.g. and look at the readers’ comments on house price stories if you want to get a feeling for the wider sentiment (ie: not mine) – in particular whether the millenials who you’ll be hoping to sell your house to are willing to play the game…

” in particular whether the millenials who you’ll be hoping to sell your house to are willing to play the game…”

ill either be dead or moving into a house thats decreased in value by a similar proportion to my own…..

could have sworn you were posting about looking at flats in london vs houses outside when i bought 4 years ago obviously i was wrong , i didnt go do my due diligence and supply my reference’s 😀

but my point still stands.

The only benefit of renting i can see is workforce mobility.

BWD – thanks for the ad hominem. It’s very childish, trying to score points with a stranger on the internet, given the very real damage being done…

Sorry if you took offence. Here’s the thing, you seem fixated on the economy in a slightly unhealthy way. You loop endlessly on here over something that you have only minimal control over. You also assume that everyone else is some sort of blithering moron who thinks that everything in the garden is lovely.

In reality most of us, I suspect, have serious misgivings over the economy, the government, the lunacy of the property bubble etc, but choose to make decisions over the stuff we have some control over rather than obsessing over stuff we cannot change. You seem to mistake this for ignorance or indifference, where I think mostly people are making a choice to live their lives within parameters they do have some control over rather than railing in a futile way over things they cannot influence.

wise words BWD

there are a couple of often trotted out sayings in my office one “is if you can change the outcome – worry about it and change the outcome. If you cannot change the outcome – dont worry about it. “

the other is

“shit happens”