Housing bubble.

How much longer can it last? The value of my little lease has gone up £16k in the last week and a half. That’s 215% on what I paid for it back in 1999!

Hope it lasts until I can sell the thing on and bugger off to somewhere cheap and sunny all year round… 😀

How much longer can it last? The value of my little lease has gone up £16k in the last week and a half.

According to what/whom?
Where?

Nationwide calculator. Leatherhead.

The thing with bubbles is they have an inside and an outside.

I’m quite happy to live outside the bubble.

According to my Neighbour (who’s just listed their identical house), the value of my home has increased by 32% in 18 months. When homes are in as hugely short supply as they are in my area, some poor sod may end up paying it out of desperation. This housing shortage is fueling the madness.

Nationwide calculator.

Fake bubble?

It is a bit like believing the Rightmove and Zoopla house price valuations… 😆

Nobody outside the South East (otherwise known as the Real World) gives a shit!

😛

This housing shortage is fueling the madness.

What housing shortage? Maybe getting people into the 600,00+ empty homes across the UK would help. Here in the North West there are housing developments all over the place although admittedly not many fall into the “affordable” category.

Well, I’ll engage a few local Estate Agents to get a valuation, but someone on here did say that the Nationwide calculator is a lot more reliable than “Zoopla” which tends to be a bit overoptimistic…

I don’t really care who gives a shit or not – I’m just interested in taking advantage of it.

The Nationwide Calculator is an index of asking prices, not sale prices – buyers making 90% offers and getting them now, whereas 10 years ago they expected to pay listing price and get gazupt so it’s not always a great indicator.

As for the well-publicised housing market correction – it will come, but only when the banks are strong enough to cope with it – some large scale building projects have been given the go ahead which will effect supply in the next 6-24 months, but the BOE voted unanimously to hold rates at 0.5% for the first time in a year so it’s unlikely rates will be going up anytime soon.

A good indicator of how supply can effect prices will be Cardiff – there are currently 930 houses for sale on Rightmove in the mainstream 2-4 bedrooms, £50k to £250k ranges in Cardiff, over the next 10 years they have plans to build FORTY THOUSAND new homes – increasing the total amount by 25% – even if they don’t all reach completetion there will be 1500 new houses coming onto the market in the next 12 months – all things being equal – 930 houses on the market today, 2500 by the end of the year. So I personally wouldn’t being going mad on getting the biggest mortgage possible to buy in Cardiff.

No idea, but we’re hoping that we’re far enough form the epicenter (London) that it won’t crush us too badly, but close enough to Reading (and crossrail) that any crash will be offset by rises due to that.

Newbuilds on our road are selling for 18% more than we paid 6 months ago, that’s mental, and ours is a much older house (read, better built) with a garden 4x the size!

The Nationwide calculator values my house ~£100k less than the figure two estate agents gave us last year. I don’t think it’s especially accurate 🙂

Also, mattoutandabout, there’s this from “Moneysavingexpert.com”:

The biggest of the home search websites, Rightmove is one of the best places to compare homes on the market. As well as boasting a dizzying number of properties up for grabs, it plots listings on a Google map for ease.

Number of properties: 800,000 for sale in the UK

So what do you know that they don’t? (Serious question).

Farkme Sundayjumper, if that’s the same for me, I’m minted!

So what do you know that they don’t?

Because unless you have 2 identical houses in the same postcode, with identical neighbours, views, and in the same condition, and sellers in the same situation and were in exactly the same situations when they last sold. Two houses are unlikely to go up in value by exactly the same amount. All the ‘calculators’ do is take your last sale price, and the average increase for that type of house in that postcode, and calculate a new estimate.

You could demolish one house and be desperate to sell, completely refurbish the other and be just testing the water and those calculators would still give the same answer.

The housing bubble has been due to burst catastophically for the last 10 years hasn’t it? Although there was a ‘correction’ at about 2009, it seems to be generally going in the upwards direction.

The biggest of the home search websites, Rightmove is one of the best places to compare homes on the market.

Result! 😀
According to rightmove my house is probably worth in excess of £1,000,000……if it was in Leatherhead.

Which it isn’t.

It’s in a (not very nice) town in West Central Scotland, where you can buy a flat for less than a new Mondeo and £200K will get you something with a moat and machine gun towers.

Not a million quid then. Bummer. 🙁

So long as you see you house as a home and not an investment and you can afford your mortgage you can afford to largely look on in bemusement at these shenanigans. I do feel hugely sorry for first time buyers though.

So long as you bought your home sometime in the late 90’s/early 00’s you see you house as a home and not an investment and you can afford your mortgage you can afford to largely look on in bemusement at these shenanigans. I do feel hugely sorry for first time buyers though.

I do feel hugely sorry for first time buyers though.

Yeah I agree. We watch Location, Location most weeks and there are first time buyers on there buying flats in London for £500,000+. It makes my eyes water thinking about the repayments on a loan like that (assume a 20% deposit and it’s still £400k over 35 years or whatever. For a flat.

No bubble in Brighouse

£200K will get you something with a moat and machine gun towers.

Port Glasgow?

Wishaw?

Johnstone?

It is a deliberate outcome from the policy of stealing Quantitative Easing – stimulate consumption via a positive wealth effect. All a mirage of course and very difficult to manage properly

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/economic-insight/halifax-house-price-index/

check out the data here and then you decide!!

A good indicator of how supply can effect prices will be Cardiff

Shit. Better sell up asap.

Sold our last house almost exactly 2 years ago. Another house on the same street of the same style/design but on a slightly smaller plot came on the market just after christmas for an additional 30%. It is now sold (STC).

Three years ago we viewed a house at 300k, we didn’t buy as we didn’t have a sale on ours at the time. It was taken off the market unsold. Similar house on the same street recently sold for 400k. The house we viewed has come back on the market for 400k. Be interesting to see if it sells.

I worry what it will be like when my kids are first time buyers. I don’t want them living here forever.

Someone I know went to look at a 3 bed house just outside Bristol, 15 minute open day; 37 people waiting to view house. House was on market for £295,000; winning ‘offer’ was £395,000. Sold in 24 hours.

Didn’t Labour get hammered for not controlling the housing market boom?

Depends on how long you want the UK to continue stagnating and for your wages and pension to continue going nowhere I guess… you may have noticed that as prices go up, growth and wages have slowed up – which has got an awful lot to do with the fact most of us are putting so much into housing costs there’s not a lot left for anything else, so companies have no-one to sell to…

But that’s ok so long as we’re stupid enough to believe that housing ‘wealth’ is actually wealth rather than an illusion as THM notes… Osbourne realises we’re this stupid and has used to it good effect to win last year’s election and also the tax take through amplified Stamp Duty…

I wouldn’t underestimate the political risk to the Tories of a continued bubble – even hardened Tory pensioners are starting to understand its downsides as they have to give a chunk of their own unearned wealth to their kids or grandkids so they can get their own place… Osbourne is not blind to this – you can expect more attacks on BTL and more releasing of land and Planning rules I suspect.

Also worth remembering that in london in particular, transation numbers are falling through the floor. Fewer transations = less stamp duty revenue for a Chancellor who’s numbers are looking increasingly ropey. A decent drop in prices would get transaction numbers back up again cos right now too many FTBers are giving up…

Neither would I underestimate the impact of wider global economic issues on London – Saudis, Russians and Malaysians are all running out of cash to launder/speculate with…

Worth remembering that in time all the Boomers will be selling up to go into Nursing Homes. You may find the ‘supply’ issue somewhat disappears…

Either way, cleverer people than me think the situation’s looking less than optimistic…

Nine Elms/Battersea…

UBS expect London bust within 3 years

UK housing is a phenomenal screw up. So some people can have some illusory wealth, we’re killing the real economy, putting the younger generation into more debt than they can handle as well as holding their disposable income back for 25/35 years, and risking busting the banks again as and when a chunk of these debts go bad…

Calculators pish but works well for those remortgaging….

They valued ours at +70 k of what i paid for it

Theres no way on this earth that my house would get close to that…..

In current market conditions locally its probably worth what i paid for it not a penny more…

But its my house – not an investment.

Port Glasgow?

Wishaw?

Johnstone?

Are we getting three each?

Mine are Barrhead, Cumbernauld and “The Vale”.

Here in Largs prices haven’t moved in 6 years. Which is okay I guess, just means I’m not any worse off.

Supposedly a mini bubble going on in Scotland on 1 and 2 bedroom properties before the lbtt supplement on additional properties comes in on April 1st.

Love a bit of Location location location, homes under the hammer and selling houses with Amanda Lamb.
Can only laugh when you see the prices of pokey wee 1bed flats in London… Same budget up here gets you A LOT of house and land.

People have been predicting a massive (30%+) correction in house prices since the 90s and we’ve yet to have one down South (e.g. prices are well past the 2007 peak in Cambridge and rising).

The problem to soon arise ,house prices will be to expensive for average jo to afford on current salaries, buy to let sales will drop off for the same reason, leaving a lot of btl owners with void properties unable to repay the mortgage loan, so will get repoed, freeing a lot of cheaper houses onto the market reducing the cost of housing, and those who have borrowed a lot to buy a property will then not be able to sell at a profit.

Then factor in the huge wave of new redundancies in the year, higher overheads and the bubble will soon burst

Port Glasgow?
Wishaw?
Johnstone?

Yes. 😳

The correction hasn’t happened (yet!) because successive governments have pumped billions into artificially inflating the market to make sure it doesn’t! Like with the utterly bonkers Help to Buy scheme! Or printing billions in QE that never made it to business loans, as it was allegedly meant to, but farmed out in mortgages instead. The myth that property will carry on going up and up and up for ever needs to be sustained, so that property owners can carry on using their houses as cash machines, and borrowing against their supposed entitlement – ever increasing equity – to buy shiny things.

It’s what passes for an economic recovery in the minds of politicians. And no matter how many billions they keep piling into it, The Market (the all-knowing sacred cow we must all revere) will see to it that it all goes horribly tits up at some point. It has too! The fact it hasn’t already is testament to the huge will and monumental amounts of taxpayers money that have gone into sustaining this madness!

All three? That’s unlucky 😛

I’m hoping the bubble isn’t so bubbly that we can’t get a house for under the ‘offers over’ price soon! 🙂 A lot of homes in the range we’re looking at seem to be on the market for a while and have had one or two price drops.

Went to see one the other day – the woman is a single older lady living in a 5bed bungalow in half an acre of land. The next door house, which is very similar in terms of size and quality, sold for 340 last year, and she is asking offers over 400. She explained that the value was done 2 years ago and she ‘knows’ it’s gone up since then, plus ‘it’ll be worth 500 in a few years’, and ‘I’ve a figure in mind’. Head in the clouds springs to mind.

By all experiences, the market across Central Scotland seems to be in a very slight depression. Some houses (first time buy family homes, like the one we’ll be selling) are selling very quickly, but the next size up, detached homes with big gardens, are often slow (though randomly, if the finish is up to a certain standard they do get snapped up instantly).

I can’t imagine a burst happening; the demand is still decent, and people DO still get mortgages.

I’m not talking about a single city (London) though. Looking at the UK.

Don’t even… I keep kicking the table looking at some glorious homes we could buy in some of these areas, after reminding myself what the streets and schools are like!

gobuchul – Member
£200K will get you something with a moat and machine gun towers.
Port Glasgow?

Wishaw?

Johnstone?

Demand is rising at a far greater rate than supply. Can’t see much change anytime soon.

This worries me, and part of the reason I’ve stayed put in the same house for a decade. We need to move soon due to growing family, and it I looking like it will mean signing up to a huge mortgage and the risks with it. It’s that or make the shed into a nursery.

All very well saying buy an country estate in deepest Scotland but that isn’t near work or family. Unless you can buy outright and have an income stream from somewhere that doesn’t require being in an office in a city.

If you can find a country estate in Scotland for a couple hundred K, let me know.
Think more likely millions.

Does seem to have been reasonably steady in Scotland. We’re Edinburgh based, hoping to buy later this year. But seems to still be similar vfm compared with a year or 2 ago.

Mine’s been on the market for a week at £15k under what the estate agent valued it at and not sold yet. Need to escape the South East…