Gaza

Hate to break it to you but if nukes are used in the Middle East a lot of Europe, Asia and Africa will cop a lot of fall out. Chernobyl caused contamination in the UK and that was nothing compared to a full on nuke shooting war.

my comment about both side having nukes was more that neither side would then use them – MAD an all that. If only one side had them, then likelihood of them getting fired goes up.

Ernie it’s not just the supply side, it’s the fact oil is an internationally traded commodity, if Middle East supply is hit it will increase costs and as we know energy prices affect the price if everything else including basic foodstuffs.

I can guarantee that the Middle East would still export oil if/when Israel no longer exists.

South Africa was very different, the regime collapsed due to internal pressures

The internal pressures within Israel are far greater than they were in South Africa. 18 months ago Israel was close to civil war. It is a nation brought up on bigotry which increases with every new generation. It isn’t just hatred against Palestinians but also hatred against each other. It is a multitude of different cultures each believing that their’s is the superior one. Russian Jews are very different to American Jews, strict orthodox Jews are very different to secular Jews, and so on.

Add to those pressures the mass exodus of Israelis to the West (currently Portugal is a favourite destination) and the dwindling numbers immigrating to Israel, and the pressures increase massively.

And more pressure is piled onto the Israeli economy, a total collapse of the vital tourist industry, most of Israel’s energy needs come from coal, its main supplier was Columbia where most of Israel’s coal came from until a few months ago, Columbia has banned all coal exports to Israel due to the ongoing genocide. Turkey was a vital trade partner to Israel, since they banned exports to Israel earlier this year goods from Turkey now have to travel through indirect routes, and so on and so on.

A dwindling population and a dwindling economy will result in massive internal pressures as well as the massive political and social pressures.

Plenty of zionists realise that the game is over which is one other reason for the level of barbarism meted out to the Palestinians in Gaza – it is also an act of revenge. The profoundly religious Jews, including the ones who refuse to fight in the IDF, are completely deluded. They claim not to care if the United States/the West abandons them because they believe that God will intervene and save them. That’s how fecked up they are. And these are some of the people who form the current far-right government in Tel Aviv.

I can guarantee that the Middle East would still export oil if/when Israel no longer exists.

I don’t doubt that but it wont happen instantly and the period of instability will put up global prices. The rest of your assessment, FWIW I think is pretty accurate.

both side having nukes was more that neither side would then use them – MAD an all that.

Yep and we’re talking Israel and Iran, that’s a very different sort of MAD. We’re not talking cold war stand off here, if Israel feels like it is about to cease to exist anyway what have they got to lose?

18 months ago Israel was close to civil war

Nope. People were exercising their rights to protest against the government, as they continue to do in huge numbers although Channel 4 won’t be broadcasting that I guess. But civil war? That’s just a fantasy unless you can provide any evidence.

It is a nation brought up on bigotry which increases with every new generation. It isn’t just hatred against Palestinians but also hatred against each other

This sounds very much like rhetoric used elsewhere to paint an entire group of people as somehow “lesser” than others; “they hate everyone including themselves, that’s not normal, that’s not an acceptable human trait”.

the mass exodus of Israelis to the West

With a net migration rate less than half that of the UK per 1000, totalling around 60000 in 2023, I’m not sure that counts as “mass exodus”. I wonder what drove people to leave last year…?

most of Israel’s energy needs come from coal

Nope. They’ve been more than self sufficient in natural gas for a while now. They’ve got so much gas they’ve been exporting to neighbouring countries for the last 4½ years. That’s half the reason Hamas attacked last year – Israel was becoming useful to neighbouring Arab nations and Iran did not like that one bit.

A dwindling population and a dwindling economy

Average population growth greater than 1.5%, GDP growth 1.6% in first half of 2024.

“Dwindling” – adjective – gradually diminishing in size, amount, or strength.

It’s almost as if you type what you wish were true instead of what is.

You’re right on the religious being deluded and the Middle East exporting oil regardless though. A broken clock, etc.

People were exercising their rights to protest against the government, as they continue to do in huge numbers

Any chance of folk exercising their rights to vote against the government in huge numbers, and elect a PM who wants peace?

Any chance of folk exercising their rights to vote against the government in huge numbers, and elect a PM who wants peace?

After the Hamas attack on Israel the population went firmly into attack mode, giving Netanyahu the ability to do what he’s always wanted, and also help him avoid being prosecuted at the same time. Now with the them against us attitude around that area with Hezbollah and others joining attacks, i doubt we’ll see the Israeli public ousting Netanyahu any time soon!

i doubt we’ll see the Israeli public ousting Netanyahu any time soon!

i suspect you are right – they haven’t shown much interest in ousting him in the past so I don’t imagine they will do so now.

But civil war? That’s just a fantasy unless you can provide any evidence.

You believe that because Netanyahu said so?

Israel’s Netanyahu rules out civil war as mass protests divide country over judicial reform

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/01/israels-netanyahu-rules-out-civil-war-after-mass-protests.html

He was responding to the widespread claims that Israel was getting close to civil war. It wasn’t simply people “exercising their rights to protest”, it included open mutiny by reservists who publicly claimed that they were refusing to serve in the military.

I’m not sure that counts as “mass exodus”. I wonder what drove people to leave last year…?

The country descending into fascism apparently:

Israelis seek opportunities abroad amid unrest at home

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-66474153

Relocation experts say many of those looking to emigrate are highly-trained professionals

And that was before the events of October 8. The exodus has understandably increased. According to a poll 80% of Israelis abroad say they won’t be returning. The Israeli government won’t give precise figures but based on the figures of people entering and leaving via airports it has been estimated that half a million have already left with a possible total 2 million in the near future. Israeli ministers are publicly begging people not to leave (ask me for evidence)

most of Israel’s energy needs come from coal

Nope.

That one I will give you, it was a sloppy comment. Most of Israel’s energy needs come from fossil fuel but not from coal anymore, although until recently it did. In 2012 60% of Israel’s electricity needs came from coal but that was reduced to 20% by 2022. I should have checked my facts, I usually do!

Anyhow good luck if you think that Israel’s main coal provider stopping all supplies won’t hurt when 20% of electricity production is dependent on it.

And as for the Israeli economy not being in dire straits I am not even going to bother arguing with that, the evidence is overwhelming and I’m not going to add anything.

Delusion is an Israeli trait which you seem to have picked up.

Delusion is an Israeli trait which you seem to have picked up.

Crossed the line, I think, with this.

That’s a saying that has been used many times and widely reported on by online reporting into the state of netanyahu and his government

Crossed what line? In my opinion Flyingox is deluding himself if he truly believes that the Israeli economy is not in dire straits and if he doesn’t believe that there is now an exodus issue. It is a perfectly valid opinion.

And yes it is not entirely surprising if he is living in Israel and is exposed to endless Israeli government propaganda, I would likely start believing it too. I think Flyingox is back in Israel, he said he was on Oct 7 but then claimed to be back in the UK and later back in Israel.

And yes I consider Israel to be delusionary society. I have no doubt that most Israeli deluded themselves and believed that Hamas could be defeated, nearly a year on and they still haven’t been. The stated purpose of the incursion into Gaza was to defeat Hamas and bring the captive Israelis home. They have failed on both counts as any reasonable person could have foreseen.

Here is an example of someone who spends too much time in Israel and regurgitates the far-right government’s propaganda which she appears to genuinely believe:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DXePAt79A8Zg&ved=2ahUKEwj2pcD_sZWIAxXkVUEAHf_YCm4QwqsBegQIEhAG&usg=AOvVaw09oxEa_M085mR5u6ifan6g

Obviously not all Israelis are gullible, plenty understand that the country is screwed. A quarter would leave Israel if they could:

One in Four Israeli Jews Would Leave Israel to Another Country if They Could, New Survey Finds

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-07-17/ty-article/.premium/one-in-four-israeli-jews-would-leave-israel-if-they-could-new-survey-finds/00000190-c202-d3e0-a5fd-ebb7ad1e0000

And many currently are:

Looking to escape war at home, Israelis seek refugee status in Portugal

https://www.timesofisrael.com/looking-to-escape-war-at-home-israelis-seek-refugee-status-in-portugal/

This probably has something to do with it:

Israel’s economy in grave danger as Gaza war drags on, economists warn

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-economy-in-grave-danger-as-gaza-war-drags-on-economists-warn/

Crossed what line? In my opinion Flyingox is deluding himself if he truly believes that the Israeli economy is not in dire straits and if he doesn’t believe that there is now an exodus issue. It is a perfectly valid opinion.

That’s not what you said. You made a fairly offensive racial slur.

Seems like C4 news/Secunder Karmani are the only news outlet that’s been active in attempting to show what’s going on with the settler violence and yet more land grabs

That’s not what you said. You made a fairly offensive racial slur.

Indeed. The mask is starting to slip.

That’s not what you said. You made a fairly offensive racial slur.

That “delusion is an Israeli trait”? Are you actually serious?* There is nothing racial about that comment, firstly ‘Israeli’ isn’t a race and secondly the idea that Hamas can be defeated and everything afterwards will be all hunky dory is totally delusional stuff imo.

The zionist project is collapsing, it is facing its greatest crisis in nearly 80 years. Going into Gaza and slaughtering thousands of Palestinians isn’t going to solve any problems, in fact it will make the situation far worse for Israel.

I did point out that although the majority appear to be delusional a large portion of Israeli society doesn’t seem to be – namely the 25% who according to an Israeli newspaper have said that they would rather live somewhere other than Israel.

So yes I very much believe that Israelis are as a whole delusional. From those who believe that Hamas can be defeated to those who believe that they don’t even need to fight because God will step in and save them.

In fact it is indeed this inability to grasp reality that will imo contribute so much to the eventual demise of the failed zionist experiment.

* I realised after asking that question that of course you are serious – I criticised Israelis and Israeli society. Anyone who criticises israelis and Israeli society is automatically accused of being racist. Anyone and everyone, right up to the United Nations and the International Court of Justice.

The mask is starting to slip

There has never been any mask. I have always been completely honest and open in my staunch opposition to zionism and the Israeli apartheid state.

I have never attempted to hide it.

As fierce opponents of the PLO which controls the civilian administration in Occupied West Bank Hamas has never had any significant presence in that part of Palestine, and certainly no activity.

Yet despite that the Israelis have killed over 650 Palestinians in Occupied West Bank since they launched their slaughter on Gaza.

And now the IDF has launched a major military offensive against at least four West Bank cities and refugee camps in what they call a “counterterrorism” operation against Hamas to dismantle their ‘terror infrastructures”.

So nearly a year after Netanyahu announced that the IDF would destroy Hamas in Gaza and return captive Israelis his regime is now publicly claiming that Hamas’s influence has spread to the Occupied West Bank.

He could of course be lying, it is after all what zionists do, and he very probably is. But it does reflect just how desperate the situation is for them.

The idea that there can ever be peace without justice is delusionary, although Netanyahu undoubtedly knows that.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/palestinian-officials-say-israeli-raids-across-the-occupied-west-bank-have-killed-9/article68575939.ece

Indeed. The mask is starting to slip.

Another thinly veiled accusation of anti-semitism. I’m beginning to spot a pattern …

his regime is now publicly claiming that Hamas’s influence has spread to the Occupied West Bank.

I’m sure it has. As someone commented on the (I think?) same C4 news item referenced above, support for militancy is an inevitable result of the brutal occupation.

The Houthis attacked the Greek-flagged oil products tanker Sounion in the Red Sea between Yemen and Eritrea last week.

The Houthis disabled the vessel, which was abandoned by the crew, and then returned to deliberately destroy it, which is a change of tactics. Tugs sent out to the vessel have been threatened by the Houthis

The Pentagon believes that the vessel is now leaking oil products into the Red Sea, which could pose a huge environmental disaster, four-times that of the Exxon Valdez for scale. This will massively effect communities that rely on the sea for their livelihood https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9wjx5ndnvdo

I said much earlier on this thread that an environmental disaster was a danger of their attacks. I didn’t anticipate that they’d deliberately set additional charges to ensure a calamity

And now the IDF has launched a major military offensive against at least four West Bank cities and refugee camps in what they call a “counterterrorism” operation against Hamas to dismantle their ‘terror infrastructures”.

So nearly a year after Netanyahu announced that the IDF would destroy Hamas in Gaza and return captive Israelis his regime is now publicly claiming that Hamas’s influence has spread to the Occupied West Bank.

I thought the recent raids were aimed at Iran-backed terrorist infrastructure, whoever they are locally, not (just) Hamas? And mainly in response to the recent suicide bombing, done jointly by Hamas and Islamic Jihad (who are in the West Bank).

Here’s the US National Intelligence office stating that Hamas has a presence in the West Bank (report dated 2014) https://www.dni.gov/nctc/groups/hamas.html

Regardless of what Israel is doing, your portrayal of it is misleading at best.

Another thinly veiled accusation of anti-semitism. I’m beginning to spot a pattern …

I’m not the one throwing around derogatory generalisations about an entire nation and then doubling down, but crack on with your pattern spotting I guess.

I’m not the one throwing around derogatory generalisations about an entire nation and then doubling down, but crack on with your pattern spotting I guess.

That’s the thing about “democracy” – it provides a dataset which allows you to make generalisations with a certain degree of validity. What is actually derogatory is accusing someone of racism without foundation.

But while you’re quibbling about words, the Israelis have killed a few more Palestinians.

I’m not the one throwing around derogatory generalisations about an entire nation

You should check out some of what some of the threads on stw say about Americans, Russians, and of course even the British population. If you want sweeping and derogatory generalisations.

And yes, I am sticking to my comment that Israelis are delusionary, well the majority are imo, it would appear that at least 25% have smelt the coffee.

Which as I repeat is hardly surprising considering the lies they are constantly fed on a daily basis by far-right politicians.

So now the IDF is conducting operations in the West Bank.

At what point is it OK to start calling this a genocide?

At what point is it OK to start calling this a genocide?

Depends on what side of the fence wall you’re looking at

I thought the recent raids were aimed at Iran-backed terrorist infrastructure, whoever they are locally, not (just) Hamas?

Firstly this are more than just “raids”, this is a large-scale military operation. Secondly it is the PLO which operates in Occupied West Bank not Hamas.

The PLO is a secular organisation whose largest faction Fatah is affiliated to the Party of European Socialists, the same as the UK Labour Party, although zionists might well call it a terrorist organisation. The clerics of the theocratic regime in Tehran do not support the secular PLO.

The Iranian connection claim made by Netanyahu’s government is a smokescreen. The stated aim of neo-fascist ministers in the current far-right Israeli government is the eventual full annexation of Occupied West Bank and its ethnic cleansing.

The current military operations by the IDF in Occupied West Bank should be seen in that context. As indeed should the deaths of over 650 West Bank Palestinian in the last 11 months by the IDF and their Israeli terrorist partners, aka as “armed settlers”. Along with the huge expansion of illegal settlements (a war crime under the Geneva Convention) what we are witnessing is simply the territorial growth of Israel as it seeks further lebensraum.

Along with the huge expansion of illegal settlements (a war crime under the Geneva Convention) what we are witnessing is simply the territorial growth of Israel as it seeks further lebensraum.

Another 20,000 homes passed for building in the West Bank since Oct 7th

what we are witnessing is simply the territorial growth of Israel as it seeks further lebensraum

I’m sure you could make this point without reaching for the German.

It is a very specific term coined by Germans to describe a specific concept. I would also use the term blitzkrieg if it was appropriate. Or coup d’etat, or other terms with foreign origins.

It is a very specific term coined by Germans to describe a specific concept. I would also use the term blitzkrieg if it was appropriate. Or coup d’etat, or other terms with foreign origins.

Of course. But used by you with full knowledge of who coined it and when, and that people would notice that connection here.  Plausible deniability is all very well, but it’s still trolling. I daresay you could’ve found some other way of getting the point across.

“Hmm, how can I compare Israel to the Nazis without actually saying so? Aha! I’m not racist, but…”

(NB: I don’t think you are racist. But I do think you push the limits sometimes and have such a strong hatred of Israel that it blinds you to other possibilities or explanations of things. It’s possible to have different points of view without excusing what Israel’s doing, and to believe that it might have good/valid reasons for SOME acts, even if it goes about them in the wrong way.)

Seeing as everyone seems to wants to talk about the Nazi’s, have we done Haj Amin al-Husseini yet? .

Nice attempt inkster but Al-Husseini has been dead for decades and is irrelevant to the conflict, how about we talk about Ben-Gvir instead as his position in the current government is actually relevant to what is going on in Gaza and the West Bank land grabs.

On the day that a number of European countries recognised a Palestinian state, Ben-Gvir entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound and said “We will not allow any surrender that would even include a declaration of a Palestinian state” and that the mosque site belongs “only to the State of Israel”.

Noted Israeli sociologist Eva Illouz has said Ben-Gvir represents “Jewish fascism”.

But used by you with full knowledge of who coined it

I wonder if you know who coined it ? It was a commonly used term in German politics in the 1890s and continued right up until the end of WW2. It was used in the context of Greater Germany and it is totally appropriate to use it in the context of Greater Israel.

You do not deny that the Tel Aviv government has a policy of expanding Israel’s borders do you?

The comparison with pre-1945 Germany is totally reasonable. And if you are suggesting that I am making comparisons between Israel and Nazi Germany of course I am and of course there are some obvious comparisons.

For a start I have referred to current Israeli government ministers as fascist. The IDF uses some tactics similar to those used by the nazis in occupied territories, including collective punishments, rounding up and incarcerating innocent civilians, and withholding essential necessities such as food. Plus of course zionists, like the nazis, attach far less values to the lives of those whose lands they have invaded, as you would expect from people who consider themselves to be superior.

Plus of course lebensraum, a term used to describe an expansionist policy which you apparently feel the English term “living space” would be more appropriate. Do you say “lighting war” instead blitzkrieg?

It is both legitimate and necessary to draw attention to the similarities between German fascists and contemporary Israeli fascists, something which anti-zionist Jews are particularly keen to do.

The obvious example of that is Gerald Kaufman who famously made a direct comparison between modern day Israel and nazi Germany in a speech he made from the floor of the House of Commons. Kaufman lost family in the holocaust including his grandmother so this was not a man who made the comparison lightly.

I have been on something like 15 or 16 national demonstrations in support of Palestine in the last 11 months, every single one of them has had a significant Jewish presence. By far the most reoccurring reference on the banners and placards of those marching with the Jewish Bloc is the reference to the holocaust.

It was a commonly used term in German politics in the 1890s and continued right up until the end of WW2

Why do you think that the term went out of use with the end of WW2? I think that you’re straying close to the edge

Drawing comparisons of contemporary Israeli policy to that of the Nazis. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/a-definition-of-antisemitism

Please stop, I find it offensive

For anyone who hasn’t already seen it here is a short speech by Gerald Kaufman he makes a direct comparison between modern Israel and nazi Germany

Why do you think that the term went out of use with the end of WW2?

Because the whole concept of having a greater whatever country and the argument of needing living space/lebensraum went out of fashion after WW2?

The policy of greater living space is still very popular with zionists though. Have you seen what they are doing right now in Occupied West Bank?

Apparently Israel is still too small, despite relentless new territorial claims.

Please stop, I find it offensive

Really? What I find offensive is quibbling about words while people are being shot, bombed, starved, imprisoned, tortured, their houses, schools and hospitals destroyed.

Because the whole concept of having a greater whatever country and the argument of needing living space/******** went out of fashion after WW2?

How about the end of the Nazi era, war crimes trials, etc.

I cant report the post because it’s yet another feature that doesn’t work here, hopefully the mods will have a look ( @Drac )