F1 2021 – spoilers here

In his words he ios a risk taker, Mercedes are not. On balance I think they made the right call but this is all easy for the armchair pundit with the benefit of hindsight

Sound assessment. I don’t think I’d like to be the guy on the wall telling LH that he’s got to come in…

The question I think is more whether he should have come in earlier but that carried risk too.

I think it all boils down to whether anyone believed the tyres could do the full distance without catastrophic failure. If everyone thought there was little to no chance then it’s baffling that they didn’t bring him in much earlier; however if everyone believed they could reach the flag then it’s perhaps baffling that they brought him in at all. (Naturally there’s a big grey area in between!) In the circumstances he did well to hold Gasly off.

Mind you, especially watching just highlights, it was really hard to keep abreast of how the tyres were evolving, which was a little frustrating given that all the intrigue in that race was hanging on understanding the tyres and the track surface—so even harder to get a handle on what the teams’ data would have looked like. I didn’t think it was a bad race, given all the uncertainty, even if there wasn’t too much happening on track. Could have just used slightly better analysis in commentary.

Perez did a great job. Alonso’s move on Schumacher was rather amateurish.

I don’t think I’d like to be the guy on the wall telling LH that he’s got to come in…

To be fair, Hamilton trusts the team and knows in the past they’ve made the right call when he hasn’t. It’s rare they don’t—I forget the race when James Vowles apologised for the wrong call over radio—and it’s rare that they’re indecisive (eg the Germany 2019 pit call). No-one can predict the future reliably, especially when parameters like tyre life are that far out of the usual envelope, but Lewis knows that the team has a ton of data that he doesn’t.

I think everyone thought the track would dry enough to switch to slicks, but it didn’t. Wet weather strategy is always a big gamble. If everyone had to pit again to fit slicks, Hamilton would have looked like a genius for staying out for so long. Once they realized that there was no chance of the track drying, pitting for new intermediates was the safe choice.

Button was doing the commentary for Sky, he explained that the Intermediate tyres go through a graining phase where the performance drops off, then they recover and allow drivers to speed up again. The call to bring drivers in for a change was finely judged as when do you bring in a driver towards the end of the GP where he can perhaps gain back enough sped to overtake drivers who haven’t changed or who’s tyre’s performance are still going the deterioration phase.

Hamilton says on the radio that it was sliding, but felt ok. What we didn’t hear was whether Mercedes told him that he was lapping a second and a half down at the point already, and the window for changing tyres to keep 3rd place had already past.

I think it all boils down to whether anyone believed the tyres could do the full distance without catastrophic failure

That was my thought as he seemed to have enough pace but it was odd Toto said in an interview after that he was losing time and would have been overtaken by Perez & Leclerc (and possibly by Gasly) so they had nothing to lose – but I don’t think he was losing significant time at that point was he? OK Leclerc’s pace dropped off a lot and he was making a mess of things so that might have spooked Mercedes but it didn’t look guaranteed that Hamilton would have the same problem (not sure how much Stroll’s and Ocon’s pace dropped in the last few laps?)

Yeah, that was the impression I got from the C4 highlights: Hamilton looked to have enough pace to hold third provided the tyres didn’t disintegrate. Whether that was true or not was kind of hard to tell from the coverage.

If it was always going to be the case that he would have to come in then the question in my mind while watching was why didn’t it happen several laps earlier when he was in fourth (ie before Leclerc’s stop) and there was a comfortable gap for him to rejoin in fifth behind Perez, bring the tyres into the window and then try to reclaim fourth.

Judging from Bono’s “well, it’ll give us another minute and a half of thinking time” comment, I guess the simulations must have been running pretty close to flipping a coin at that point in the race.

The bookies seem to have Max as slight favourite for the drivers with Lewis showing just under evens. For the constructors they favour Merc by a fair bit. Personally I think the drivers is too close to call but I do think Merc will take the constructors. Bottas just scores more heavily as no2 than Perez

Thought experiment.
Last race of the year, three laps to go.
A) The order is Hamilton (with fastest lap) Verstappen Bottas Perez.
This will give Hamilton the title by one point and RB the constructors by one point. RB could pit Perez, new tyres, get the fastest lap but drop him out of the points. This would give Verstappen the drivers title but lose RB the constructors.
B) The order is Hamilton Verstappen (with fastest lap) Bottas Perez.
This will give Verstappen the title by one point and Merc the constructors by one point. Merc could pit Bottas, new tyres, get the fastest lap but drop him out of the points. This would give Hamilton the drivers title but lose Merc the constructors.
.
In A I recon RB might just do it, take the driver’s and sacrifice the constructors to do so. In B I don’t think Merc would, I think the constructor’s is more important to them.
.
Anyone else agree/disagree?

I think both would go for the constructors title because that’s where all the money is. Winning the title means nothing to the teams. Winning the constructors is worth millions.

the CC is worth millions of prize money. the dc is bigger in terms of exposure – and PR. why do you think Merc spend all that money? its not to win the prize money!

I think it’s hard to call.

Get the fastest lap but drop him out of the points

I may be wrong on this point, but I thought the extra point for fastest lap only applies if you finished in the top ten (i.e. within the points anyway). Presumably, to stop exactly this sort of shenanigans…

I may be wrong on this point, but I thought the extra point for fastest lap only applies if you finished in the top ten

Yes, but think bonus the point is not awarded to anyone if a car outside the top ten sets fastest lap so Perez or Bottas could prevent anyone else taking that extra point.

I think the bigger point is that there are possible scenarios where a team would have to choose between strategies aimed at winning the drivers championship or the constructors. For example, if Bottas was leading Perez with Hamilton in third and Verstappen out of the race, but Hamilton needed second place to win the WDC, Merc could ask Bottas to let Perez and Hamilton past so that Hamilton takes second place. However, it’s possible that doing that would also let Red Bull take the constructor’s championship.

Ooo interesting thought experiment. RB have stated recently they are focussing on Max and not the constructors. Whether that’s because they think it’ll go to Merc so are giving Max a ottos confidence boost I don’t know. If, at the final race it was Max or RB for the championship they may suddenly decide the constructors is worth more to them.

Merc, as 7 time consecutive constructors, are getting plenty of legacy prize money in (there are various accumulators for multiple/ recent constructor wins) whereas they have Lewis going for a record 8th and it may be his best chance. Actually I think they would let Lewis go for the drivers at the expense of the constructors.

If he was on 6 or 8 or George was going for his first or whatever and they would go for the constructors without a doubt.

A bit of insight into Merc’s decisions on Sunday: https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.monday-morning-debrief-hamilton-was-furious-at-mercedes-late-pitstop-call-in.4wR2L8lu1jrpU8AnfFQYWN.html

Bez
Full Member

A bit of insight into Merc’s decisions on Sunday: https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.monday-morning-debrief-hamilton-was-furious-at-mercedes-late-pitstop-call-in.4wR2L8lu1jrpU8AnfFQYWN.html

Makes sense, thanks for posting it.

Interesting that after a tweet by Hamilton that article has been re-titled as “Frustrated” rather than “Furious”

The F1 site is slowly becoming a bit sensationalist, though. They’ve really tried hard to milk the Hamilton/Verstappen rivalry this season, constantly selling the prospect of fireworks and billing it as a real grudge match, when the two protagonists have been almost entirely rational and sanguine about it. Which is a shame, because (other than Ross Brawn’s “some stuff happened and I saw the stuff that happened” column, which inexplicably continues to appear) it’s otherwise been a decent source of content and insight.

yes, I agree, it has become a wee bit too tabloid especially over MV and LH.

It is the “modern” way though, sensation drives hits…

The 2022 F1 cars will be much quicker than initially expected according to the latest simulations carried out by F1. Pat Symonds expects them to be only 0,5s slower at the start of next year and equal by the end of the season.

AMuS (in German): https://t.co/nYrJtDbxnT

— Tobi Grüner ? (@tgruener) October 22, 2021

I’m sure Haas will find a way to be 5 seconds off the pace.

They have been working on it a year longer than everyone else….

Took me a while, but got it eventually.

Spoiler for

Kevin Magnussen

Alonso is the only active driver to have raced with all 4️⃣ current engine manufacturers! ?

Can you name the only other driver to have done this in the turbo hybrid era? ?#F1 #USGP #Motorsport pic.twitter.com/LJqKzbz6xF

— Motorsport.com (@Motorsport) October 22, 2021

Omg that’s a good one!

Well, I worked it out but had to resort to Wikipedia to do it. The answer surprised me tbh!

I couldn’t work it out, then 5live gave it away during fp1! I was surprised, he wasn’t even in my thoughts!

I know, right?!

That was a good one to get the brain working!

Is the question phrased correctly?
Alonso hasn’t driven a hybrid Mercedes has he? He was with McLaren back in 07, way before the hybrids.
So did the answer to the question also drive one or more of those engines before the hybrid era?

Is the question phrased correctly?
Alonso hasn’t driven a hybrid Mercedes has he? He was with McLaren back in 07, way before the hybrids.
So did the answer to the question also drive one or more of those engines before the hybrid era?

Yes, it’s asking two slightly different questions. The Alonso part seems to be about all four engine manufacturers at any time, including pre-hybrid, the second part is only about the turbo hybrid era, but obviously a driver who is no longer on the grid.

Not expecting much of the race (maybe some broken cars if we’re lucky) but the start should/could be interesting with Hamilton in a Red Bull sandwich. Good timing from Perez to get up there when needed

There’s rumours that he’s up there due to Red Bull finally allowing him the upgraded parts that Verstappen has had for a while and that these allow him to set the car up as he likes it. If Perez is strong in the race it will be interesting how Verstappen and the team deal with that, especially if Perez is the faster car or out in front.

Red Bull finally allowing him the upgraded parts that Verstappen has had for a while

Why would they not give them to him? What reason could they have for not making one of the cars as fast as it could be?
Cost-cap is the only thing which springs to mind, but even then actually making another one is (relatively) cheap compared to the R&D of designing it
What parts are they BTW?

Why would they not give them to him? What reason could they have for not making one of the cars as fast as it could be?

Exactly. It makes absolutely zero sense to not give Perez the fastest car available. What seems pretty obvious is that the Red Bull is a tricky car to drive and that Perez is not quite at Verstappen’s level of ability.

I believe it’s due to rapid development and the congested season not allowing multiple parts, plus spares, being able to be manufactured fast enough so Perez has had the previous generation upgrades at every step. Certainly I’ve noticed that they have been running slightly different front wings on each car at some races, whether that is just driver preference though is unknown. Red Bull do have history of doing it in the midst of a championship battle (ask no2 driver Mark) so I don’t doubt the rumours but it is more likely that Perez has just found a setup that works for him now regardless of whether he has the latest bits.

Certainly I’ve noticed that they have been running slightly different front wings on each car at some races, whether that is just driver preference though is unknown.

I suspect some of it might be strategic – maybe they expect Verstappen to qualify at the front with Perez behind, so Perez has a setup more suited to racing behind other cars.

Sky F1 said Perez had now decided to go his own way with car setup as opposed to just taking Ver setup and making small adjustments and that was likely the reason for the improvement in form.

Great effort by Perez. Looking forward to seeing how the tyre management goes tomorrow.

Oh nice to see they have a cycle lane all the way round the circuit too!

This is a bit lively innit?

It’s gonna kick off shortly!!

Well, IMO that’s it for Hamilton’s title hopes to the year

That was actually exciting! Well done max – one mistake and Hamilton was past him

Fair play to Max. Well driven. Schumacher did it though.