EU Referendum – are you in or out?

It’s impossible to negotiate all the trade deals in the period under A50 negotiations – it’s always been obvious that a lengthy transition will be required.

By the time it’s complete the EU will be a very different beast altogether – who knows 3 or even 27 different currencies?!?

thecaptain – Member
No THM, the govt is floating a few kites but no-one is negotiating anything about access to the market, that is all scheduled for some way down the road, once sufficient progress has been made over the terms of the separation (including the Irish problem for which no credible solution has been presented)

kite floating on the irish border issue is imminent and leaky:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/british-government-stands-over-plan-for-light-touch-border-1.3186607

We are giving up membership of the EU – in line with the results of a democratic process – and now negotiating the terms under which we will continue to have access to the EU single market and v.v.

Well to most people, the nature of the terms is what defines ‘hard’ or ‘soft’. Everyone else knows what that means, you seem to be annoyed with these terms for some reason.

The governments has today stated a position on the customs union that is utterly nonsensical. Basically “we want to remain part of the customs union, but at the same time we don’t want to be part of the customs union”

Clear?

And David Davis is blathering on about BMWs again like some befuddled old dementia sufferer in a nursing home

The Eu must be looking at all this and just thinking “WTF?!!!”

There is nothing in any of the Uk documentation that suggests that H or S Brexshits either exist or are a target. Juts so sign that clouds the narrative – conveniently it seems

Indeed, the term hard is used by those who somehow think there is a nirvana of trade deals waiting to be snatched up, who have a desire to light a bonfire of legislation reducing worker & individual rights, lowering standards across the board from the environment to food to banking.

Soft for those who who’d like to avoid that catastrophic outcome.

Kind of puts an interesting perspective on those in each camp IMHO..

Mol, I’m not angry. I understand it. It would be helpful if others made the effort to do so to, including the politicians who use sloppy language to deliberately confuse

Binners has conveniently proved my point 😉

UK desire to stay in a CU with the U.K. during a three year transition period after 2019 exit. Then leave under terms to be agreed.

Pretty clear. Achievable? We shall see.

[but looks like a fudge is evolving q well so far]

Then leave under terms to be agreed.

The Third Coming will be here before that’s agreed!

What has been absolutely consistent throughout this whole shambles is the ‘cake and eat it’ almost colonial arrogance of the Brexiteers.

They’ve still banging on as if all we have to do is let everyone else in the EU what we’d like, and they’ll all just rubber stamp it and wish us good luck as we go on our way, setting sail for Empire 2.0, enjoying all the advantages of the single market/customs union, while bearing none of the responsibilities

Basically, all the people involved in the UK side of the negotiations are absolutely delusional morons, and they can put it off for as long as they like with their vague indecision, but at some point there going to be a very rude awakening

It’s looking increasingly likely that this will just carry on. Another 18 months of confused, directionless dithering, before absolute blind panic sets in, but too late as we crash out with consequences so catastrophic that it’ll make so called ‘Project Fear’s predictions look like a best-case scenario

Of course, just like Dave after ushering in this cluster-**** in the first place, they’ll all just walk away from the shitstorm they’ve created and leave everyone else to clean up their mess

Step away from the noise and the remoaners Binners

What we have actually seen in a considerable softening of opening positions on both sides ALREADY

This bodes well for a sensible conclusion or at least a reasonable fudge.

Even the nutters are becoming flaccid

Then leave under terms to be agreed

Important bit in bold.

We don’t know what will happen or what our government really wants. So no, not clear at all.

Well blow me away

Anyone would think that this had been done before and that the government wanted it in the first place !

I can only think of one sensible way to remain part of the customs union.

So (assuming that the EU agree) how much will we be paying in during the transition period?

the cost of Brexit just keep on rising

Quite telling that Fox/Hammond statement was categorical that transition must end before next election, thats the cut off, not when we are in a strong trading position or when the new free& frictionless customs system is ready….

nope the deadline is the one that makes sure that the tories cling on to power rather than whats actually best for the country.

The economies are cyclical and remarkably synchronised at the moment – albeit that the UK and US didn’t have the 12/13 dip. Hence the latters’ cycles are more mature and close to or past their peak.

Planets aligned. Sheep’s entrails in accord. Good to know that the economy is in safe hands!!

It’s looking increasingly likely that this will just carry on. Another 18 months of confused,

Nah, this is all just prep for blaming the EU’s “unreasonableness” when our side do the planned walk out over the bill.

That’s what the papers will be braying for, and that’s what they’ll do.

In

Mol – my previous post was written on way out to lunch. Reading back it (probably) comes across badly – the blow me away bit. It was meant as a joke but doesn’t read that way, excuse me.

My real point was that expectations need to be made in the context of the fact that this is something very new, very complex and for which no one is well prepared. Plus the EU are past masters at “pretending to negotiate” while pushing the opponent into a corner. It will involve a lot of back and fro and difficult compromise especially in tears, of feeding the baying mob, while getting in with the real stuff (largely behind closed doors)

FWIW, I think too many people approach each bit of news form an overly clean set of expeditions that will always be disappointed when set against the very murky and messy reality of what we are dealing. Hence, on balance I tend to be more positive than most (my bias) when it comes to interpreting each news item. I am relieved that some of the nonsense has already gone and confident that further compromise will evolve. But it won’t happen in a straight line.

Oh look Davis’s white paper contradicts what fox & Hammond said in their joint statement just 3 days ago:
We won’t be able to negotiate any new deals until after the transition….

Brexishambles- over a year after the vote and they are still lying to us

a new and innovative, untested approach to customs control….

1. write what you owe on a post it and leave it on the gate
2. Crack on it will be fine
3. Flat tax rate pre declared at 25% (trust based)

any other ideas

Your assessment seems reasonable THM.

Is there really any way that our economy will not simply drop behind the competition for decades to come?

@mrmo same chf move against euro / historic components too. What is says is about how the Swiss have managed their economy

Which for an economy that is closely tied to the EU, suggests that the UKs problems are not the EU?

Which comes back to a point i made long ago, the UK has been shafted by Westminster and not Brussels. Going forward without a HUGE change in the way the UK is run we are going to have serious problems.

Oh there’s going to be a HUGE change in the way in the way the U.K. Is run alright

But it’s going to be in the wrong direction. A few people will benefit enormously, and make obscene sums of money to add to their already enormous wealth

The rest of us? Do you think this lot care?

A few people will benefit enormously, and make obscene sums of money to add to their already enormous wealth

I thought you said a change?

How do you think it’s going to look without the brake applied by the EU to the wilder Chicago Shool, Neoliberal, Ayn Rand fantasies of those presently at the wheel?

What this country has in place now will look like pure socialism compared to what this lot have got designs on

Sorry binners aren’t you confident the next govwenment will be a Labour one ? Tories will fight the next GE on pretty much (if not identical) workers rights etc that we have now. Would be too much of an open goal to do anyrhing else.

Would be too much of an open goal to do anyrhing else.

Yeah coz the current crop of torries would never fk up an election…. 😉

😆

Increase productivity => increase wages
Improve education => increase productivity => increase wages
Reduce role of state = improve education = improve etc

(Plus with 3 abive we can reduce tax and the forced slavery to the government 😉 )

Chicago School 😉 blimey Binns you have a good memory

Tories will fight the next GE on pretty much (if not identical) workers rights etc that we have now.

And the evidence that they would respect a manifesto pledge is?

How is the £350M promised by one of the three brexiteers looking?

What has £350m got to do with Tories?

Reduce role of state = improve education = improve etc

Citation please

Oh and an explanation of how you are improving education with the state having reduced role . Feel free to use the past, when we did not have state education, to evidence your answer.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-vote-leave-director-dominic-cummings-leave-eu-error-nhs-350-million-lie-bus-a7822386.html

If your going to use such claims, then walk away from them. That is electoral fraud, and an affront to democracy. Boris should be on trial.

Good to see the Independent still support getting in A level students for work experience.

Tories will fight the next GE on pretty much (if not identical) workers rights etc that we have now. Would be too much of an open goal to do anyrhing else.

Indeed it would. I imagine they will wait until after the next GE. I wonder when that will be?

The problem is that the labour shadow international trade secretary interviewed this morning by Emma Barnett – get on iPlayer and give it a listen – managed to make Liam Fox sound like Churchill. I’ve never heard such blathering lack of understanding. It was beyond belief the utter lack of grasp he had on the subject

The Tories at least know what they want – though they won’t vocalise it, obviously – they want to bend us all over and go in dry.

The Labour Party? I haven’t a clue! And clearly neither do they.

It’s a bloody tragedy! Because either outcome means we’re all well and truly ****ed! Just from different directions

Labour trying to recreate some fantasy 70’s nationised utopia outside the EU, or the Torys trying to establish an Ayn Rand wet dream

How the **** did we arrive at those two choices?

And as already pointed out Jamners…. if you could fill us in on how Tory election pledges generally shape up, that’d be great?

How are all those new grammar schools looking? Or anything else in their laughable manifesto?

Strong and stable?

Democracy?

Reducing the role of the state =/= increased efficiency and certainly =/= improved performance.
The private sector are equally capable of employing ****, but are just generally better at making the tax payer underwrite thier liabilities.
Privatising profits and publicising debits.

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