EU Referendum – are you in or out?

Oh trump will give us a deal, on condition that Johnson lower standards enough & we allow US pharma to charge NHS US drug prices (currently 4x on average what we pay for same medicine)

Realistically services, tech etc will get priority, so London, & educated remainers will do fine out of it. Manufacturing & agriculture (non- elite leaver jobs, if u will) talks will be, more complex & (politically) painful & take much longer, but without a trade deal they’ll slowly wither as part of our economy away anyway.

Johnson’s Brexit will end up punishing working leavers far more than remainers

Johnson’s Brexit will end up punishing working leavers far more than remainers

This is exactly why it’s been sold to working class people as an opportunity for them. Notice how the language used has changed over the months – no one mentions Sovereignty or taking back control anymore. The language around immigration has become much less subtle it’s inferred without being specifically promised that jobs might be easier to come by for working class Leave voters, who either do not understand or do not believe that their rights are to be legislated away.

I’ve been saying this for months, but the aim of Project Brexit has clearly been to deregulate, stockpile the world’s tat and export it to the EU via leaky borders. Think of it as a large, poorly regulated Amazon warehouse with low pay, long working hours and few consumer and environmental protections.

However, the EU aren’t playing ball – this is why Johnson is moving towards a much harder Brexit than anything envisaged back in 2016. Plan B involves some sort of anglosphere trade bloc that’s heavily deregulated, the hints dropped by prominent Brexit politicians are not so subtle.

Oh trump will give us a deal, on condition that Johnson lower standards enough & we allow US pharma to charge NHS US drug prices (currently 4x on average what we pay for same medicine)

Or we just don’t buy the drugs at all as NICE deem them nonviable at the increased cost meaning the people who need them will no longer get them. That is the piece that needs to be publicised in campaign although “Not for sale” is admittedly a bit catchier!

Let’s see your maths..

Here’s my stab at it.

First of all let’s take a look at National Institute Economic Review which states:

“First, and most important, according to our estimate, GDP will be 3% per cent smaller each year in perpetuity than it would have been had the UK stayed an EU member”.

Fairly straightforward googling gives:
GDP for 2018 was approx £2.1 trillion.
3% of that is £63 billion.
Payment to EU is £13 billion after rebate (2018)
EU put £4 billion back into UK funding (2018)
Net EU expenditure £9 billion (2018)

Reduction in GDP/EU membership is 63/9 = 7.

Save 9 billion to lose 63!

Let’s see your maths..

Work out 3.5% of GDP (for some reason copy + paste ignores the .5).

Find out UK net contribution to EU. Hint: UK government figures don’t account for all credits.

Divide 3.5% of GDP by net EU contribution.

It’s 9.5 times if you want to be pedantic.

Save 9 billion to lose 63!

My numbers agree – I knew them before I asked TBH..

But I wanted to see if the poster was going to cook something up in an attempt to justify their post.

Of course they couldn’t, because they were talking shite..

I think it was on here Scotroutes was stating scottish greens are anti europe. Thats not what their manifesto says
“The Green vision for the EU is for a people’s Europe, protecting workers’ rights, the environment, welcoming refugees and reining in the banks and major corporations. Europe has its flaws but progress is being made, driven significantly by Greens, and Scotland can be a leader for that progress. We want to be at the heart of the EU, working to end the economics of inequality, corporate power and unsustainable growth. These are problems that do not respect borders, and it is through cooperation that we can tackle them.”

https://greens.scot/membership-of-the-eu

Of course they couldn’t, because they were talking shite..

The mind boggles…

The mind boggles…

Show your working then which refutes that posted – otherwise you are talking shite & will be treated accordingly as a brainless troll.

I explained it to you.

Address your inability to read and you might get somewhere.

Your first calculation is incorrect.

ONS will provide net EU contribution including private sector credits.

No, you didn’t.

You’ve shown no workings at all & showed no sources for your numbers.

Where’s your maths?

I think Farage is serious about standing in most constituencies and that will really damage the tories badly.

I am now thinking well over a hundred seats to the smaller parties and a hung parliament

So what really do you think his game is? Is it as simple as keeping the gravy train going? There are worse reasons I suppose…

It’s as likely a reason as any other. It’s a well paid job, his ego gets stroked a lot, and if we leave he loses both plus his reason for existing.

ONS will provide net EU contribution including private sector credits.

These?

OK that shows a higher figure than the one I quoted because “HM Treasury also publishes figures on the payments between the EU and the UK government and estimated the net contribution in 2018 to be £8.9 billion. Its figures differ to those reported by the ONS as they are estimates, compared with the final figures used in the ONS publication. Treasury figures are also presented on a cash basis, whereas ONS data are presented on an accruals basis”.

So if we use ONS (£11bn) rather than HM Treasury (£9bn) the “lost GDP”/”EU contribution” comes out at just under 6 rather than the 7 I calculated.

Nearly there…

Del

Subscriber

I think Farage is serious about standing in most constituencies and that will really damage the tories badly.

I am now thinking well over a hundred seats to the smaller parties and a hung parliament

So what really do you think his game is? Is it as simple as keeping the gravy train going? There are worse reasons I suppose…

That is exactly his game, as confirmed by people I know who have worked for him.

JP

Sounds like they want to be the new DUP

A whistleblower has contacted Labour frontbench with concerns over the relationships that Cummings May have developed in “politics, intelligence and security” when he worked in Russia between 1994 and 1997.

— Tom Harper (@TomJHarper) November 2, 2019

The Sunday Times understands that Whitehall is restricting some government business from Cummings, despite awarding him developed vetting (DV) status, which should grant him access to top secret intelligence. See tomorrow’s Sunday Times @cazjwheeler

— Tom Harper (@TomJHarper) November 2, 2019

£ paywalled https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-asks-about-dominic-cummings-years-working-in-russia-vl6d0w62z

Johnson’s Brexit will end up punishing working leavers far more than remainers

Good.

This is exactly why it’s been sold to working class people as an opportunity for them. Notice how the language used has changed over the months – no one mentions Sovereignty or taking back control anymore. The language around immigration has become much less subtle it’s inferred without being specifically promised that jobs might be easier to come by for working class Leave voters, who either do not understand or do not believe that their rights are to be legislated away.

I’m pretty sure that ‘getting it done’ is being sold now and not mentioning what it actually is.

Nearly there…

oh hi THM, been a while. Back to offer some more wisdom? Most generous of you.

I can say with a high degree of confidence that is not thm

Striking from latest Yougov poll (via @willbott4 ) pic.twitter.com/w2yFYqZZDv

— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) November 12, 2019

That is striking. Penny finally dropping amongst the population?

I think that May’s rush to A50 without any public process of establishing what we actually want was the biggest mistake here amongst many.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/13/tesla-cites-brexit-as-germany-chosen-over-uk-for-european-plant-elon-musk

yet another missed opportunity for Brexit Britain… not just the jobs but the access to battery tech that gives the ability to make renewables even more viable

I wouldn’t blame Elon for this choice, I’d choose Berlin over the UK if I were in his shoes

To be fair Berlin has been on the up for quite a few year amongst tech companies. Cheap, trendy, Germany in general is pretty Anglo friendly so finding management that can converse with any American owners is easy

That is striking. Penny finally dropping amongst the population?

Which Yougov poll?
If this is the millennials one then hardly surprising.
A huge number of leave voters are retired anyway… and that’s the ones that are not dead.

I think that May’s rush to A50 without any public process of establishing what we actually want was the biggest mistake here amongst many.

It’s a catalogue of mistakes … I truly wonder how historians will recount this period…

I think that May’s rush to A50 without any public process of establishing what we actually want was the biggest mistake here amongst many.

Corbyn was, of course, in no way complicit.

It’s a catalogue of mistakes … I truly wonder how historians will recount this period…

Whoever ends up writing the history of this clusterfsck wil say want they are paid to. In some ways it will not matter for the same reasons as we have issues now… If the history fits without world view, it will be treated as truth, if it does not, or is contrary, then it will be ignored or treated as fake news and ignored.

Maybe a reliable unbiased version will be found some day, written by an unbiased observer from another country, someone respected, but I suspect that this will be treated the same way.

History is written by the victors and all that.

Corbyn was, of course, in no way complicit.

May’s move forced him to go along with it I think.

May’s move forced him to go along with it I think.

How?
He’s the leader of the opposition … he’s meant to oppose.
I see the entire opposite… Corbyn’s apathy is what allowed May to go along with “Brexit means Brexit”, failure to point out the lies that HIS voters had succumbed to for fear that was branding them as stupid? Reliance on Cameron (a Tory) to lead Remain?

He’s the leader of the opposition … he’s meant to oppose.

More accurately they are supposed to push their policies. That may or may not include opposing.
For the article 50. The issue was they couldnt start negotiations until that was done.

Reliance on Cameron (a Tory) to lead Remain?

No there was an active campaign by all accounts. It just didnt get the same press.
They needed to keep a distance from the tories. They got bitten by that in the Scottish referendum.

Corbyn did allow himself to be pushed into immediate a 50

Poor judgement from him at best

Poor judgement from him at best

with hindsight by the Labour party perhaps. But I’m reasonably sure if given the chance again, Corbyn would push for it, as he is personally a massive supporter of Brexit.

He’s the leader of the opposition … he’s meant to oppose.

Er no, that would just lead to meaningless gainsaying of whatever government says. He’s meant to provide an alternative view. He is however constrained by electability, and in the light of the referendum he still had to appeal to voters just like May did. This coming from a political landscape where everyone was afraid of losing voters to UKIP.

We’d all love a powerful champion for remain but you cannot ignore the referendum result.

Which Yougov poll?

Source for this page 13 of a YouGov poll taken on the 7th/8th of November. Full results here: https://t.co/Mnlh3X4Blx

— Will Bott (@willbott4) November 12, 2019

Corbyn did allow himself to be pushed into immediate a 50

What the actual ****!

Bullshit of the highest order.

Who was pushing him when he called for immediate triggering of A50 before any other major politician, never mind any of any standing in his own party?

For the article 50. The issue was they couldnt start negotiations until that was done.

Couldn’t have started negotiations with the EU… but that was not the point… deciding how we wanted to Leave, and what new relationship we should seek with the EU&EEA, was what needed to happen before A50 was triggered.

We’d all love a powerful champion for remain but you cannot ignore the referendum result.

Act in haste, repent at leisure. Lots of ways to act based on the referendum result rather than push for A50 to be triggered ASAP, and claim that FoM must end [poor forgotten Norway, we’re so in denial] and rule out staying involved in the Single Market.

Who was pushing him when he called for immediate triggering of A50 before any other major politician

His electoral base?

So I’m a remainer.
My constituency is Con/LibDem – Labour stand no chance.
The Tories want a hard Brexit
Labour want a red Brexit
Libdem want to revoke but apparently Swinson is untrustworthy and a vote for them is a vote for Tory Lite.
Who do I vote for?