While the media keep focused on the fuss over the backstop (so that blame can be targeted at Ireland, even though it’s Brexit campaigners who claimed NI wouldn’t be a problem), it seems much bigger aspects of the WA are dead in the water thanks to the new government’s fresh aims…

6/ That is because the UK is now rejecting the level-playing field provisions of the WA which the EU had seen as a buffer against a low-regulation Singapore on Thames emerging on its doorstep

— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) August 8, 2019

Cherry amendment was designed to make that a possibility, ie. Parliament being able to revoke A5O at the final hour, as a backstop if you like, if we were heading for an imminent No Deal exit. Guess who worked against that? Other than the Conservatives that is. Go on, guess who…

… but Lib-Dems should be pushing the revoke A50 option, reminding us the public, that there is and alternative to a GE and real prospect of Boris calling a GE that falls across 31 Oct and caused a no deal crash out.

Or is the prospect of winning a few seats and having sway in a hung Parly more important to the Lads – as I said a test of integrity

other countries are not so centralised with one city sucking all the money out of the economy

Paris, Dublin, Brussels are great examples of this.

Just look at any population density map of Europe to see how many countries only have 1 large centre of population, thus commerce.

Germany is slightly different but Munich, Frankfurt, Cologne and Berlin dominate commercial activity.

tjagain

and Scotland who support the UK economy – take london and scotland out of the picture then england is barely viable

Stop dripping economic pish about Scotland in peoples ears and hoping it will become a fact.

From a report on deficits and surpluses throughout the UK.

Net fiscal balance per head, 2016-17 (in £s)
NE England 3,718
NW England 2,684
Yorkshire and the Humber 2,199
East Midlands 1,650
West Midlands 2,296
East of England -895
London -3,697
SE England -2,150
SW England 975
England 158
Wales 4,251
Scotland 2,651
N Ireland 5,014
UK 695
(A negative number means a surplus)

And before you bring it up. The oil revenue from the north sea is approximately equal to the support Scotland has received from UK wide pooling and sharing.
Heres a graph (black is “scottish oil money” that went south, red is “uk tax money” coming north). Areas not so different?

from here

but Lib-Dems should be pushing the revoke A50 option

It’s dead. Sorry. SNP weren’t alone in pushing that Cherry amendment… but a huge section of MPs were against it, led by, well you know who.

The only way to dress this option up as a way out that could bring along the “what about 2016 democracy” nervous MPs shying away from it (ignoring those that would never vote to stop Brexit in any circumstances) is to change the language to “Revoke A50, and then have a public vote”… paint it as pressing “hold” rather than “stop”.

So for the reasons above, London creates more money than Cardiff which creates more money than Caerphilly and so on.

And Caerphilly makes cheese, therefore Brexit.

Morning all.

Can anyone tell me when the riots start, please?

Kelvin – we may be **** then. I’m convinced Johnson will time an election to force no deal election – we are then into uncharted constitutional waters

Can anyone tell me when the riots start, please?

Around when 999 becomes overwhelmed by two disasters overlapping. Say, KFC running out of chicken and people fighting over the last crumpets in Tescos.

eat the pudding – there are a whole bunch of reasons why the GERS figures do not represent the true figure – Even Hammond the UK chancellor said if scotland went independent England will take a huge financial hit and the pound would be weaker – because without scotlands money then rUK would be poorer

Anyway – that one has been danced around enough but its certainly true that since the 70s scotland has supported the UK economy

tj, The figures (as shown) show Scotland has had as much out of the UK as it has put in since the start of the oil.
Before the oil, and on into the future, it will continue to benefit by more than it puts in, because thats how countries work (the rich bits support the poorer bits).

These are the facts. No part of the UK outside southern england currently has a surplus so stop the special pleading for scotland as an economic powerhouse. Its misleading nationalist propaganda (though still apparently widely believed) and irrelevant to this discussion.

You always complain that GERS is wrong but have failed to explain why you disagree with the figures used by:
a) nichola’s own statisticians (i.e. GERS producers who develop and improve their own figures, use internationally agreed methods, and have stated via FOI that they have never had a request for information refused by “Westmonster”),
b) the book of dreams (based on temporarily favourable GERS figures) and
c) the SNP produced report “Scotlands Future” which accepts them (but then tries to explain away the massive austerity required in a newly independent scotland with magical thinking).

Just drop it, and concentrate on stopping boris and the tories from dividing and bumming us all.

PS I’m not “talking scotland down” any more than I’m talking down NI, wales and the north of england, all of which have deficits.

Around when 999 becomes overwhelmed by two disasters overlapping.

Like when a bunch of kids somewhere decided they didn’t have enough trainers and iphones?

Or when Witrose runs out of avocados, manchego and decent quality burgundy… The middle class horror will rock society to its core.

I don’t think that there will be much rioting. There will be no point taking out the lack of food or fuel on the people that sell it, it’s not their fault.

If protests do happen, like if/when unemployment spikes up, or when fuel runs out, it will be too late. I don’t think that the Police will be up for the task of taking on that level of protest and they are cut too thin to control really big protests all over the country. You could use the Army as a back-up, but even the hardest ERG nutter muct realise at that point that they are nothing more than a police state.

eat the pudding – there is a lot of dispute of GERS figures and its certain that they do not show the whole picture

Its a subject I have read a lot around and there are flaws. It was adopted by the SNP as previously it was used as a stick to beat them with. GERs includes a lot of costs that an independent scotland would not have and why if the union is so important for scotlands prosperity is it such a basket case? Take Denmark. In the 70s Denmark had a GDP per capita less than Scotlands, now its double – and all they have is a swamp full of pigs and a surplus of pig shit 🙂 Scotland has oil and whiskey!

some discussion here if interested and there is lots more. Scotsman is very unionist so no bias towards the SNP
https://www.scotsman.com/news-2-15012/what-are-the-scottish-gers-figures-and-why-are-they-important-1-4788244
http://www.businessforscotland.com/question-ask-every-unionist-gers/ ( pro independence group)

Loads more but this is not a debate that wil convince anyone. Remember Hammond stated that losing scotland wouold cost england dear

Just as it would cost Scotland. Imagine turning your back on your largest trading partner, right on your doorstep…

Anyhow, in other news, Kenya has given Boris another strategy to stop debate in parliament

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-49290641

He’s already stockpiling beans, veggie curry and corks.

I see from Sky and the BBC this morning that we had a small GDP reduction last quarter, and with this not looking to be great, we’re likely in a recession at the moment.

Most of the tabloids are blaming Corbyn and other ‘Traitors’ for causing uncertainty and reminding their readers our economy is going to fly once we leave. It beggars belief.

Scotland probably is an asset to the UK union. You can tell cos the Tories campaigned against independence and they’d love to be shot of us!

I was in the post office this morning and the guy in front of me was hastily cashing Euros into Sterling because he’d read in the papers that the “Euro was going to crash” – I nearly LOL’d

Its almost a shame THM is no longer here. I’d love to see his spin on this 🙂

Scotland probably is an asset to the UK union

I would agree with that.

Its almost a shame THM is no longer here. I’d love to see his spin on this 🙂

There are some sacrifices worth making TJ 🙂

The riots will be started by Brexies when they realise that the promised sunlight uplands aren’t quite as was promised.

Am I allowed to miss THM and Jambalaya even though I often disagreed with them?

If you like. About the best thing you can say about both was that they provoked discourse.

Jamba was OK in that he could make a coherent argument with some basis. THM………………

tj, my longer answer got lost somewhere, but to summarise
business for scotland = suppressed giggling
dispute about GERS = no there isn’t. Not from anyone who understands economics/statistics. All economic statistics are estimates. but these are statistically verifiable figures with error bars and everything.
And they are accepted by nicola sturgeon (whose stats department produce the figures).
If they were easy to disprove with an opinion piece in a newspaper or on a website, they why oh why doesn’t she just do it, and just MAKE the economic case for an independent Scotland in black and white?
Maybe you should call her and clue her up?

At the very least ask yourself why these hidden facts about scotlands economy are hidden away on nationalist conspiracy websites and newspaper columns, and not the subject of a Scottish Government enquiry.

Its hard to take you seriously when you come onto a thread about europe and brexit and then spout economic rubbish that belongs on the side of a bus.

If your main argument (and I think we both know it ALWAYS comes back to economics no matter where you start) relies on obfuscation and sewing FUD about the facts, you’re no better then the brexiters and their unicorns.

Please continue sewing fear uncertainty and doubt but at least admit to yourself the playbook you’re reading from.

(None of this implies that scotland might or might not be an “economic powerhouse” after independence by however many years. But GERS is the best indication of where we would start. And we wouldn’t start richer, or the same, but poorer, and on a scale greater than brexit).

tjagain

Member
Jamba was OK in that he could make a coherent argument with some basis. THM

im not sure thats correct

pre-ref a large part of this thread was THM pointing out that jamba was making stuff up to support his arguments

after the ref i think THM struggled with is natural toryness & the shambles of May & the brexiteers handling of the farce

Dammit .. I found my original reply. I’ll bung it here for completeness.
tj,

GERS are estimates.
But so are ALL economic figures.
They are the best available and if there was any obvious omission that could be added in to make it look like scotland could afford to support itself in the manner to which it has become accustomed, then you have to explain why nicola and her stats department are hiding it from us all?

To suggest that the deficit is made up (or down) in some way to piss off the SNP, by the SNP, is just fatuous.

You don’t give the impression of someone who is easily led or deceived, so why are you defending and perpetuating busworthy economic lies?

I’m not saying GERS is 100% accurate, but it is derived by people who know about statistical error bars

To look at it another way, here is the table I put up there reordered from surplus to deficit.
Net fiscal balance per head, 2016-17 (in £s)
London -3,697
SE England -2,150
East of England -895
England 158
SW England 975
East Midlands 1,650
Yorkshire and the Humber 2,199
West Midlands 2,296
Scotland 2,651
NW England 2,684
NE England 3,718
Wales 4,251
N Ireland 5,014
UK 695

If Scotlands deficit is a lie, then what about the East Midlands? Wales? Northern Ireland? Are they all secret economic powerhouses as well?

How deep does this rabbit hole go?

What happens to Boris when the promised sunlit uplands turn out to be a swampy creek? How long can the papers continue to spin the “it’s the EU / Remoaners / rest of the world” line?

We “achieve” Brexit by dint of some political stunts involving elections around the time of the Leave date and then we end up with a hung parliament, absolutely no clear direction anywhere and a country that’s split to pieces – do Boris and co simply gather their millions and **** off somewhere quiet for a few decades like Cameron seems to have done?

We can only hope.

We can only hope.

That’s the last thing I’m hoping for. I want them to suffer, not make millions from it. I want Brexit shown up for the lies and spin that it actually is and for everyone responsible (from Boris, Nigel, etc right down to the newspaper editors that enabled it all) to be subjected to suitably medieval torture rituals, paraded through the streets and then hung.

I think ticket sales would be quite good – might offset some of the deficit.

The only way they’ll suffer is if we manage to get boris and his entire cabel of erg nutters into parliament on bonfire night and re-enact the gunpowder plot, but this time do the job right.

I live near a hospital and am on friendly terms with the neighbours near here, who all work at the hospital. This week a fourth family has returned or emigrated to another part of Europe. All since easter.

Eat the pudding

Lots of stuff included in the gers figures that would not be a part of an independent scotlands costs Englands nuclear weapons programme Then there is all the cost of westminster and whitehall – again some of that cost is in GERS and while some of that will be a cost to an independent scotland most of it will not. Englands nuclear power white elephants.

Then there is the massive subsidy from the UK taxpayer to londons transport – another cost on GERS gone.

That is multiple billions per year.

Then there is the under reporting of scots economic activity – again most agree.Sorry dude but GERs is flawed for this comparison and anyway is damning for the UK as why is scotland with all its advantages an economic basket case?

The figures are accurate for economic estimates – but a significant amount of the costs included would no longer be paid by an independent Scotland

Remeber Hammond stated that England would be hit finacially massivly if scotland became independent

Want more discussion on GERs – there is loads out there from respected economists 😉

Again pointless because its not a debate that will change your mind

Edit – remember I am a pragmatic supporter of independence – not an ideological one. Never voted SNP in my life. Having read as much as I can all over the place around the economics I am certain that an independent scotland will give me a higher standard of living – both financial and in social policy ways.

Again pointless because its not a debate that will change your mind

It won’t if you don’t bother giving solid evidence. Blaming someone else for not believing your argument when it’s unsubstantiated is Brexit levels of debating skill.

Molgrips – I can provide lots of debate around GERs figures from a variety of respected economists. However its just pointless to do so given that eat thinks they are gospel but I think they are gross estimates and include a lot of things an independent scotland would not have to pay. Its just a waste of my time

Want some links?

Here is one from an english economist. This sets out just how vague they really are.

More on why GERS might properly be called crap data

And another from the same chap

GERS: is this why it always says the Scottish deficit is so large?

Then as above there is a lot of spending included – multiple billions – that an independent scotland would not have – nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Westminster and whitehall, etc etc

Scotland that was indeopendent tomorrow would be running a deficit – large but nothing like as large as the unionists try to claim. Perfectly sustainable and given the capacity for growth I have no issue with it
Plenty more but I am not going to waste time trying to convince someone who does not want to be nor drift this thread any further. I only dip in and out of anything political here due to how frustrating it all becomes

molgrips the other point is that if the union is so beneficial to scotland then why is scots gdp growth so poor? Take Denmark – a country without many of scotlands advantages and most of its disadvantages. 40 years ago danish gdp per capita was a lot lower than scotlands. Now its a lot higher – and we have had all the oil.

so does scotland benefit from the unuion economically? – the evidence to me says no

short term pain for long term gain – what we have to contribute to the nuclear weapons we don’t want or need would pay for dualling the A9 every year! Now that would bring big economic benefits to scotland – nukes do not

I think they are gross estimates and include a lot of things an independent scotland would not have to pay.

So you’re saying you know best, right?

Want some links?

Anyone can cherry pick links. The issue is here one of confirmation bias. There are likely as many articles claiming Scotland’s surplus as its deficit. You pick the ones that you think are right, and you think they are right because you are convinced you are right, so all you see is quality articles that confirm your view. Articles that don’t are not considered quality.

No – I am saying I have read widely on it from all sides and then make my mind up on the evidence. I have little truck for most of crap poored out by both sides. You read widely, you look at thre quaility of the data and the analysis, you look at the credentials and then you make your mind up. It is not confirmation bias – remamber I am not an ideological indepoendence supporter. Have a read of those two links. English acedemic economist. It explains a lot of the issues with GERS

finally – do you know how GERS came about? It was designed by Lang when he was secretary of state to spike the guns of the snp

A leaked memo from Ian Lang to John Major said
“I judge that it is just what is needed at present in our campaign to maintain the initiative and undermine the other parties. This initiative could score against all of them.”

Noice!

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1159874602560081920