…otherwise the leave propaganda will ramp up and the far right emboldened.

(Psst … the far right will be emboldened by whatever happens over the next few years, why do you think USA far right players backed Brexit? Even if the vote had been 52:48 the other way in 2016, it would have still played into their hands,
; division and damage come what may. Prepare for the “betrayal by the UK elites” narratives, whether we leave or not. Prepare for the “evil unelected EU acting against us” narratives, whether we leave or not.)

The difference is tho by having a second referendum it removes the foundation of their attack line ” the will of the people”

That’s precisely what I said a few posts back.

Problem with a ref is that leave might win and then there will we be.

2nd problem is that there isn’t time, and it is much easier to revoke than extend A50 (extension may even be refused).

Therefore we revoke first, then spend a year arguing about the terms of a referendum, never actually hold it, until enough gammons die off that opinion shifts firmly against.

I’m not saying this will definitely happen but it’s a plausible outcome.

We cannot revoke then start article 50 again – thats clear in the text of the decision

Plenty of time for a referendum – we can have general elections at a months notice.

Not true.

We can revoke, but can not put “terms” on the revocation to change the terms of our membership. A future decision can be made to trigger A50 again… but, once again, can not be used to game the system and alter terms of membership. If any country did this repeatly, you can be sure A50 would be changed by a subsequent treaty to stop this kind of action in law. As it stands, A50 can be revoked and retriggered. Legally. Lord Kerr has been saying this for two years, and the ECJ today confirmed it. Go read.

Also not true.

The procedure for calling for a referendum, forming the question, and allowing a campaign period, is clearly set out, and is not the same, or even similar too, a general election.

We can revoke and if we choose to invoke it again the EU can just point and laugh and say “ok there’s the deal, it’s the same as last time”.

Or, they may offer us something that gives us even less room for manoeuvre, as they’d be even less trust that we wouldn’t try and game a transition period and/or backstop arrangement. Lack of trust/faith would result in a legally tighter withdrawl agreement, I suspect.

But, my point is, having revoked A50, if we still voted to Leave, we could properly prepare to do so, while still being a member, and wouldn’t need a transition period on EU terms. We trigger again when we’re sure we can be ready to trade as a third country. There is not a chance in hell we can be ready by March.

they may offer us something that gives us even less room for manoeuvre,

That’s exactly the line that Leave would use in any 2nd Ref campaign. “We have this deal to leave, take it or the next one won’t be as good” (good is obviously a relative term here). Add that to denouncing anything contrary as “Project Fear” and you can steer a lot of the electorate quite easily.

The EU must be very close to telling the UK to ‘do one’.
From Sweden to Spain the Far Right is gaining power, France is rioting, Germany has a coalition made of paper, drown children are washing up of the beaches of Greece and we think Brexit is important to them.
It isn’t.

That’s exactly the line that Leave would use in any 2nd Ref campaign.

That’s fine… if we withdraw our A50 notification, and hold another referendum…

Leave win… we have bought at least two years to prepare to be a third country (gov could choose to make it longer if necessary) by cancelling A50 and taking back control.

Remain win… we have kept our opt outs and carve outs that we would not be able to regain if we leave and later rejoin the EU.

Both options are better then either leaving in 2019 with no deal, or signing away control/sovereignty with the current withdrawal agreement.

So labour still pushing brexit on their terms ahead of a second referendum… sigh.

Kelvin – on the referendum – that can be changed by an act of parliament – the very act that would be needed to hold a referendum. There is no practical bar to having a referendum in a month. there may be political or legislative ones. but they can be overcome

How would that be better than withdrawing A50 and then holding a referendum, TJ? What makes you think Parliament could change how referendums are conducted quickly? Would a rushed referendum, based on rushed legislation, be more or less open to abuse than one we take time over? What happens when/if Leave win and we only have weeks left before we are due to Leave? If we have a referendum, we need to be ready to carry out either result… I think 2016 should have taught everyone that.

I just think that revoking a50 without a referendum first is unacceptable politically. Its never going to happen. The only way we can revoke a50 practically is to hold another referendum first.

And… if Leave win? Then what?

Revoking A50, then holding a referendum, gives us two paths that are better than what we are currently heading for… it either gives us the time and control to prepare to be a third country, or it enables us to keep our current terms of membership.

What happens when/if Leave win and we only have weeks left before we are due to Leave?

We leave on the terms of mays deal

If the government falls then an incoming government could ask for an extension but the whole idea that parliament revokes a50 is a non starter. It immediately gives the leave side the beast weapons they could wish for.

Cabinet ministers on standby for emergency call with PM, apparently.

Tomorrow’s vote cancelled according to Bloomberg.

BBC are now reporting that May is about to postpone tomorrows vote. Not to worry. Theres plenty of time to sort all this out

What an absolute farce!

Lots of different scenarios being bounced around. What are our predictions then?

From where I sit, I think the following could play out (in most to least likely):

1) May loses vote but clings on to power. Lots of Parliamentary shennanigans resulting in an extension to A50, based mostly on fudge. EU will approve as the only alternative is no deal. After that, who knows? 2 more years of can-kicking. May be another GE and 2nd Referendum?

2) May loses vote and says that parliament has decided that no deal is better than her deal.

In the ensuing chaos of scenario 2 all sorts could happen, including us actually leaving with no deal.

I still think no deal is more likely than no Brexit. Sadly, I really think our best hope is to extend A50 and keep kicking the can until 2nd referendum and hope we get a monster turn out and convincing majority vote remain.

Fascinating how fast it changes though. Only a week or so ago, I thought May’s deal would squeak through.

Surely, surely, surely if the vote gets pulled then today has to be the day?

Although, I must have thought that 17 times so far and every time she calls a press conference and waffles about nothing for half an hour.

😂

And in the time it took me to write that, looks like all change again!

Christ, even Armando Ianucci couldn’t have thought this up!

Armando Ianucci commented that there would be no point doing any more of ‘The Thick of It’ as politics in Brexit Britain is now beyond satire.

He’s not wrong

Laura Kuenssberg reporting that vote cancelled and also a statement on article 50 expected later today.

No 10 spokesman just said it’s definitely happening tomorrow, as did Gove earlier, but

BREAKING: Theresa May cancels a vote in the U.K. Parliament on her Brexit deal to avoid a huge defeat, a source says https://t.co/e3XaFIMHds pic.twitter.com/PQxmMEKxj2

— Bloomberg (@business) December 10, 2018

how much longer can this farce go on?

Ooo,can’t wait for an update from BoJo.

And, as in uffish thought he stood,
The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,
And burbled as it came!

How can she unilaterally cancel a vote

A **** disgrace.

By May’s argument the original brexit vote should’ve been postponed or cancelled until all the facts were known and confirmed.

Been offered a role in dublin with current client. Heavily tempted to get my Irish passport sorted and **** off out this shit hole until it all dies down

How can she unilaterally cancel a vote

Allegedly, she’s in charge of the government, which, allegedly, controls the legislative agenda.

it will go on until either there is a general election, and we can vote (normally) to avoid brexit, or we have another ref. when sense will hopefully prevail.

or we can just watch the car crash happen, slowly, until everyone is dead in the road.

I might have a way into a Dutch job. Shame the biking is so shit, otherwise I’d be there like a shot.

Statement on A50 – postponement? Don’t think she will cancel it.

How can she unilaterally cancel a vote

By just cancelling the vote, it’s kind of that simple, she does not need to present a bill to parliament if she doesn’t want to.

Party before country! Again.

With GBP:EUR taking another dip, is it that the forex market thinks no deal brexit has increased in likelihood rather than a revocation of article 50?

It’ll be due to the instability and uncertainty I’d guess.

With GBP:EUR taking another dip, is it that the forex market thinks no deal brexit has increased in likelihood rather than a revocation of article 50?

Or they make both ways, this time it’s the turn of secret group A, next week the agreed to let the other lot make some cash.

it’s kind of that simple

No, it isn’t. Any chance of people making an effort to get informed about how our democracy actually functions? This thread is depressing full of statements made as if absolute, without first making reference to fact.

The business of the house can be altered at any time, but not uniltately by the government without requesting permission from parliament.

it will go on until either there is a general election, and we can vote (normally) to avoid brexit

How, given our first past the post system, with both parties having Brexit in their manifestos, can you vote for your MP go towards avoiding Brexit?

A50 statement seems to be “we signed up to it before the ecj ruling so the ruling doesn’t apply to us”. Yeah right.