Election Campaign

, we had those Referendum polls which showed the Yes had closed right up to tie

Well I put a picture of the poll of polls and that is clearly NOT what it showed [ of course there was some noise and variation] but basically they called the election accurately despite your denial of this. It’s so much easier to be right if you just ignore and refute the actual facts and repeat your own ones that are not true despite the evidence.

On the broad point I think the poll of polls will always broadly be accurate. and whilst they wont be 100% accurate they will be broadly accurate and they did get the Scottish referendum vote correct.

The weekly variations are sampling errors well within accepted norms but the overall broad trend will hold true.

Conservatives were spending £100k a month on facebook long before the elction campaign started proper.

The comments on our local Tory candidate’s page show that this isn’t always effective; lots of negative comments.

Well I put a picture of the poll of polls

But it was specific polls that got all the media attention. The ones that suggested it was close/tied.

jambalaya – Member

Do we need another thread ?

I am sceptical of opinion polls, proved to be very inaccurate in Scotland for the referendum.

Tories are convinced Milliband is big Labour weakness together with their tax and spend history.

That’s why it’s important to remind everyone that the highest UK tax burden in history was under the Tories/Thatcher, and that George Osborne promptly put up VAT to the highest level ever as soon as he became Chancellor. And also to remind them that George Osborne fully supported Labour’s spending plans in 2007 when he was Shadow Chancellor.

And why it’s important to have threads like this.

But it was specific polls that got all the media attention. The ones that suggested it was close/tied.

Whilst I would love to let you move the goal posts and discuss this with you instead of what you actually said the fact remains that they called the result accurately and what you said was inaccurate.

I am sceptical of opinion polls, proved to be very inaccurate in Scotland for the referendum.

This is just not true. Again there was some noise in a very small number of polls [ of hundreds] that said as you claim for a very brief period [ days iirc ] . If you wish to highlight/cherry pick them and ignore the trend ,as per the graph i showed, and conclude as you have then that is your right.
Its unwise and , clearly, the facts wont sway you. I dont see any point in further discourse.

Ok I’m doubly confused now. So not only are the labour party the economically responsible balancing the books austerity party, but the tories according Cameron are now the ‘party of working people’. What next? No doubt the libdems will announce themselves as the ‘Pride of Eng-er-lan, send the b*ggers back’ party.

Indeed, looks like you’ll be voting for continued austerity daz.

But the medicine will have more sugar under labour

Was an interesting piece on the radio about this

The argument was they had both forgotten to appeal to the middle ground floating voters and now they were panicking and appealing to them to the degree they have flipped sides

Shows how little difference there is between them and it is pretty strange to see

there is almost nothing [ no lie] a political party wont say in the run up to an election to harvest votes

The three manifestos announced so far:

Labour manifesto: http://www.labour.org.uk/manifesto
Green manifesto: https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto.aspx
Conservative manifesto: https://www.greenparty.org.uk/we-stand-for/2015-manifesto.html

😆

Here you go JY, I am sure you do remember this really

Yes leads by 2%[/url]

JY my view is that elections in the past 20 years are won by the party in the centre, from time to time the Tories drift off right and Labour go left and usually that’s where they come unstuck. Labour have not been able to be radical as they cannot afford to be financially and from a credibility standpoint, the non-dom pledge even they admitted would probably cost money. Tory announcements have been much more broadly appealing. their standpoint has long been you cannot afford a welfare state if the economy is broken.

Perhaps you have forgotten my opening line on this thread in reply to your claim

They all [ bar one] Had no winning and no won

🙄
It seems that you cannot accept that one “wrong” poll in hundreds does not make this statement true

proved to be very inaccurate in Scotland for the referendum

Again you can cheery pick the one poll and ignore all the trends if you want but it is still not wise. Its just holding an opinion not supported by the evidence

From your link

The latest survey, conducted for The Sunday Times with less than two weeks to go until voting day, has YES at 51% and NO at 49% – the first lead for the independence camp registered by YouGov, or any polling company, since regular polling on September 18th’s referendum began.

The numbers represent a four-point increase for YES support since YouGov’s last Scottish independence poll conducted a week ago (August 28-September 1). Opposition to independence has fallen from 53% to 49%.

The last poll, fielded after the second televised independence debate (which Alex Salmond was widely regarded as having won), was the first to represent a real possibility for a ‘Yes’ win, with only a six point gap between the sides.

The percentages reported exclude those who wouldn’t vote and don’t know. With those groups included ‘Yes’ are on 47% and ‘No’ are on 45%.

Its not even a majority when you include all surveys and they were pretty much spot on for the Yes vote 😉

If you cannot see this, and it appears you cannot, will you please just stop repeating yourself and then i can stop repeating myself
I am not replying to your inevitable denial/refusal to accept reality , as its clear facts dont matter to you

😳 Oops, good job I’m not a Green candidate or anything… Too late for a sneaky edit, too. 😳

The three manifestos announced so far:

* Labour manifesto: http://www.labour.org.uk/manifesto
* Green manifesto: https://www.greenparty.org.uk/we-stand-for/2015-manifesto.html
* Conservative manifesto: https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto.aspx

Has anyone had any canvassers?

I have had no one at the door, no leaflets, not billboards – just a UKIP bloke at the station last week (but with not enough time for some fun!). Is there really an election going on?

Weve had leaflets from everyone, bar the greens. And labour canvasser, also quite a few labour placards and stickers up around here

Labour defo seem to have more boots on the ground and I imagine it’ll swing back to them from the current Tory, who only just got it last time

Conversely my fb account gets loads of Torry advertising posts

So there seems to be a difference between the canvassing tactics

We’ve had a leaflet from the greens and some fantastically overwrought “newsletters” from the red and blue corners.

SNP canvassed my street last night, chap was quite pleasant and left straight away when I said a firm ‘No thanks’, didn’t even bother trying to give me a leaflet.

Looking at the sorry state of their cars I’d say canvassing for the SNP doesn’t pay well (at all?!).

SNP got less than 12% of the vote (came in 4th) in the constituency last time, so would need a large swing to take it. And the constituency is part of an area that voted 60% against independence, so an SNP win would be a big deal. Can’t see it myself.

All SNP canvassers are volunteers.

Has anyone had any canvassers?

There are areas of the town where canvassers from all parties are active, but they’re all pretty short on members/volunteers so they’re going to struggle to get around everyone. If you live in a safe council ward and/or in a safe parliamentary seat, it’s very unlikely that anyone will knock on your door or hand-deliver a leaflet. It’s all about focused effort.

Lots of talk of “The Good Life” today. This from the Guardian made me laugh.

But the medicine will have more sugar under labour

It’s not medicine, if anything it’s poison. Which is why the Tories eased off the so-called medicine just in time for things to look a tad more positive as the country prepares to go to the polls. If the medicine was doing any good then you would expect them to double the dose in the run up to a general election.

Previous Labour governments weren’t in the least bothered about the UK having deficits just like the previous Tory governments weren’t – both Thatcher and John Major ran substantial deficits.

Then Cameron and Osborne come along and use the deficit as a pretext to justify ideologically motivate cuts. The Labour Party, highjacked by self-serving right-wing careerists and too pathetic and spineless to challenge them, and not wanting to upset the Daily Mail, signs up to the policy and makes the same commitment to clear the deficit through cuts. Only they claim they will be better at implementing right-wing policies than the Conservatives. Oh and “fairer” of course, they will be fairer………..“Vote for us we’re just like the Tories but fairer”. FFS

ideologically motivated cuts

As opposed of course to the opposing policies which saw an ideologically motivated expansion of the state sector?

Or is it only ‘ideology’ when the Tories do it?

Of course not Z-11 that’s ridiculous. And I certainly have an ideological commitment to the expansion of the state sector. There is nothing wrong with being ideologically motivated.

Today’s Tory Party like their neoconservative mates across the Atlantic have a strong ideological commitment to less social provisions and social ownership. However they come out with some bollocks about the deficit and how it must be cleared to justified their neoconservative agenda (while completely ignoring the fact that all previous Tory governments for the last 40 years had deficits).

Any spending cuts by Cameron/Osborne are ideologically motivated and have **** all to do with the deficit, a deficit can be cleared without cuts. It is perfectly correct to point out that Tory spending cuts are ideologically motivated.

ernie_lynch – Member
There is nothing wrong with being ideologically motivated.

Which is interesting given…

Any spending cuts by Cameron/Osborne are ideologically motivated

They will be relieved!!!

teamhurtmore – Member

ernie_lynch – Member
There is nothing wrong with being ideologically motivated.

Which is interesting given…

Any spending cuts by Cameron/Osborne are ideologically motivated

They will be relieved!!!

What appears to be the problem THM……you seem to be struggling ?

Nowt Ernie, it’s all very amusing to read. Light relief too when you take jnto account how crap the real debate has been. Cheers!

You’re obviously easily amused then. Presumably this is the first time that you have heard the claim that Tory spending cuts are ideologically motivated.

It’s a widely made charge by opponents of the Conservative Party and it’s strange that you should apparently have been oblivious of it. I would have expected that someone who purports to read the FT would have been better informed.

Indeed the FT in its Budget 2015 report last month wrote the following :

Senior Liberal Democrats attacked the Conservatives on Wednesday over their plans for austerity in the next parliament, accusing them of making ideologically motivated cuts that would reduce spending to its lowest point in 50 years.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/36d84e54-cd86-11e4-9144-00144feab7de.html#axzz3XKKWaAxF

Presumably despite being allegedly an avid reader of the FT you didn’t read their budget reports. Had you done so it might have bought you some “light relief” when you take into account how crap the real debate about the budget in the FT must have been for you.

ernie_lynch – Member
You’re obviously easily amused then.

Yes, it pays to be at times like these, correct

Presumably

Presumptions can be very dangerous especially twice in a single post 😉

this is the first time that you have heard the claim that Tory spending cuts are ideologically motivated.

On the contrary, I am regularly misinformed on here (notes spending plans of all major parties). More discerning journals, fortunately, note and lament.the lack of ideology, vision and strategy displayed by our political leaders

and it’s strange that you should apparently have been oblivious of it.

That would be strange, I agree.

I would have expected that someone who purports to read the FT

The what?

would have been better informed.

I rely on a STW grocer to do that for me. Is the advice not up to scratch? Must be a bad apple day!!! 😉

But when all is said and done, I can always fall back on the knowledge that

ernie_lynch – Member
There is nothing wrong with being ideologically motivated

😀 😀

Have a nice day. Mines a pippin (not to be confused with a Victoria)

Surely Ernie’s point is that being honest about your idealistic motivation is better than dressing up as guff about the country being skint/broken/whatever. Thm you remind us so often that austerity is yet to start, yet we have had so many changes made apparently in the name of austerity.
If your ideals are to dismantle the state then why not just be honest about it?
If your ideals are to renationalise public services in which there is no realistic ‘choice’ eg the railways and health system then why not be honest about that too?
Instead we get oblique jokes that you need to have read the last week’s argu-threads on here in order to begin to understand. :/

Btw choose an apple with a higher percentage or polyphenols thm, science suggests you might be less of a burden on the state in later years.

julianwilson – Member
Surely Ernie’s point is that being honest about your idealistic motivation is better than dressing up as guff about the country being skint/broken/whatever.

True

Thm you remind us so often that austerity is yet to start,

More that there is much more to come – see OBR for details

yet we have had so many changes made apparently in the nameof austerity.

Indeed, we have had lots of sloppy terminology – progressive, currency = assets etc

If your ideals are to dismantle the state then why not just be honest about it?

Are you talking about a party that maintains gov spending within historic boundaries and ring fences major parts of it?

Instead we get oblique jokes that you need to have read the last week’s argu-threads on here in order to begin to understand. :/

Banter!!!

But I took Ernie’s suggestion and had a look at the FT and their political columnist

Voters will enter the polling booth with a sketchy idea of the economic choices on offer. The Tories’ commitment to overall budget balance, Labour’s preference for capital spending — these and other distinctions are too opaque to move the average Briton, who knows that policies are changeable anyway. Personality, by contrast, is relatively constant. As their pencils hover over the ballot, people will have a gut impression of the characters asking for the right to rule them, and decide accordingly. Voters know that superficialities are what really run deep.

Thank goodness for quality journalism!

So the deficit isn’t a problem, the Tories are using it as a pretext for ideologically driven reduction of the state and Labour are being bullied by the right-wing press into making cuts just to make themselves look “credible”.

I think that’s right isn’t it ?

so…
tories have a plan to do something (but probably won’t)
labour can only say that anything the tories say isn’t costed/funded
libdems have a contingency plan which is to have a contingency plan and learned that Gordon Brown ran an economy by using the word “prudent”, so they borrowed that word too.
and ukip have serious drivel this time rather than just drivel

that’s all I’ve managed to ascertain from BBC breakfast news.

Budget cuts where required for two reasons, spending was excessive and income (taxes etc) where falling due to the recession. Even with Tory spending cuts our deficit is £90bn per annum, with a Labour government it would have been 50% larger, possibly more. The French economy has continued shrinking as Hollande opted for spending instead of reforms and his tax rises backfired resulting in lower levels of income for the state.

Spending cuts were essential and any ideology largely irrelevant.

What I want to know is…. has Junky hi-jacked THM account?

Just look at your reply to Ernie about an hour ago….

ernie says this

THM says that

Ernie says you said that but what about these

THM says these? Look at those

…..

Poor …. go away and have a little think… 🙂

Good article in the i this morn…. about agruing over the scraps and missing the bigger issues.

Labour has been talking about raising an extra £7.5bn from tightening tax-avoidance and evasion, and from ending non-dom status. Even if it managed to do so, that would be only 1 per cent of its spending, or 10 per cent of the deficit. It would be like someone on average earnings, which after tax are around £21,000 a year, suddenly getting a windfall of an extra £210.

The Tories are equally guilty. They have a plan to raise £1bn from cuts in pension tax relief on the highest earners to fund the removal of family homes up to £1m from inheritance tax. This is supposedly revenue neutral, though no one knows whether this would be the case. But to have as a flagship policy something that is so tiny in the context of the economy as a whole is bizarre.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/a-billion-here-a-billion-there–and-not-a-word-of-it-matters-10177097.html

Although this is second time McRae has raised the point…. he still hasn’t educated us on the larger/real issues that he thinks we should be discussing.

Anyone here like to do that ?

spending was excessive

% of GDP spent on public goods (from p49 of Green manifesto)
[list][*]Denmark – 58%[/*]
[*]France – 56%[/*]
[*]Belgium – 53%[/*]
[*]UK 2010 – 47%[/*]
[*]Uk (Green Party plan) – 45%[/*]
[*]Germany – 45%[/*]
[*]Spain – 42%[/*]
[*]United States – 41%[/*]
[*]UK 2015 (planned) – 39%[/*]
[*]UK 2020 (planned) – 26%[/*][/list]

Let’s be honest the whole campaign is sh*t with all parties simply fiddling around the edges, because much as we moan about the Greeks, the UK population are no better at excepting bad news. The problem is that if no action is taken then eventually rather than the UK sorting it’s own problems, external forces will act to sort it out instead and probably not for the better.

Article on Gilt sales here:

Gilt sales

UK 2020 (planned) – 26%

36% actually and assumes spending savings are restricted to managed expenditure budgets.

Excess leverage

Weak productivity

Welcome back supply-side economics – only problems is that they don’t give quick results.

Ok for you Ro5ey? (But I take the point 😉 just a rare error!)