Election Campaign

So aside from any debates an policies, what’s the feeling so far? I may be a little biased, but it seems to me that the Labour party are playing a blinder so far. They seem to be one step ahead at every turn, whilst the tories appear to be in disarray and reacting to events. Do the tories really think all they have to do is keep lobbing insults at Miliband and Balls and that will do it? I know the electorate is stupid but this tactic seems to be arrogant in the extreme, and is making Labour look like the ‘grown-ups’ which the tories have always claimed to be.

I think the tory attacks might help milliband in some ways

look hes really boring having a cup of tea in his kitchen!
well i do that too, it may be boring but its what people do

and the backstabbing comments, in regard to his brother, just make him look a bit ruthless and ambitious which isnt necessarily a bad trait in a future pm

and trying to rake muck on his past girlfriends, the torygraph are still banging on about him dating stephanie flanders* on the front page today

its helping to transform him from the boring nerd, wallace charicature to a lot more of an alpha male

and its making the tories look bitchy and with nothing positive to offer

*shes quite sexy, imho, hes punching above his weight there!

I think the tory insults have already helped him immensely. He comes across as quite an affable, harmless bloke, so the attacks just make the tories look like a bunch of schoolyard bullies which is hardly a good thing for them. And everyone likes seeing someone stand up to bullies, which I think he does quite well in the face of the tory insults so it plays very well for him.

The Tories are definitely panicking! You can tell by the way they’ve radically changed their approach to Millibean in the last week, from ‘ha, ha! Look at the dweeb! Isn’t he useless! Ha, ha, haaaaaa! Just look at him’, to suddenly him being the most dangerous man in Britain. Scrapping Trident etc

Well… which is it then? Because the 2 positions are inherently contradictory

And thankfully I think most people are taking a very negative view of the sheer nastiness of the Lynton Crosby Tory tactics. And they’re definitely on the back foot now he’s forced them to effectively defend the (indefensible in most peoples eyes) tax arrangements of non-doms. Hence them chucking the Trident thing in in a transparently obvious, blind panic to change the subject. It didn’t work!

Millibeans comeback was clever though… “while I have the greatest respect for Michael Fallon, he has on this occasion demeaned his office….” And so refusing to get drawn into personal insults. And looking a lot more statesmanlike as a result.

Another week of polls like this, and the Tory’s really are going to go into full on nasty, attack dog mode. With the aid of their friends in the right wing press. Its all they know. Its their default. But I think the electorate looks like its had enough of that already. But they simply can’t help themselves. Its just what they do…

I reckon Crosby has fundamentally misunderstood the way the public thinks in this country. His macho-bully tactics may work in a macho alpha male country like Australia or the US, but the UK is much more sympathetic to ‘underdogs’ and likes someone who stands up to bullies, and miliband plays this role very well.

Interesting points:

Focus largely on domestic policies in complete contrast to US elections
Lab and Tories starting this week by focusing on their perceived weak spots
Main parties fear of standing up for what they have done or believe in
The pull of fluff as a panacea to solve our problems
The permutations and likely coalitions between parties that REALLY dislike each other, hence manifestos are little more that the opening bid in the forthcoming negotiations. Forget saying how we are going to represent the voters’ best interests
It won’t make a scrap of difference even if we get the unholy alliance. But that will be funny watching Nicola implement more Tory ( 😉 )policies north of the wall!!

hence manifestos are little more that the opening bid in the forthcoming negotiations.

Absolutely bang on! Its the elephant in the room. That that dare not speak its name. Whatever government we end up with will be a coalition of some flavour or other. Nobody will get a majority. And they all know it!

But none of them can come out and actually acknowledge that fact. Which makes the whole thing a bit of a farce really. The manifesto’s aren’t actually manifestos at all. They’re a wish list of things they’ll be haggling for with potential junior partners. Or in the case of the SNP, stuff they’ll be demanding as the price of cooperation. I’d imagine if the lib dems are potentially entering a coalition, they’ll be driving a lot harder bargain this time around!

Cue the BS bargaining over Trident versus another independence vote!!!

You can view it as either contempt for the voters, political pragmatism or the voters’ fault.

Either way, it’s most likely to messy with no real LT effect on what issues need to be addressed.

Do we need another thread ?

I am sceptical of opinion polls, proved to be very inaccurate in Scotland for the referendum.

Tories are convinced Milliband is big Labour weakness together with their tax and spend history. Labour think the NHS is a major advantage from them. UKIP vote seems to be on a slide, I wonder if they will remain a by-election and EU parliament party. SNP wins will favour the Tories. Apart from that I haven’t seen much.

As per some commentators I think there is a very high chance of a dysfunctional coalition and another election in 18-24 months

Do we need another thread ?

Don’t see why not. The others have descended into the predictable point scoring on policy issues. This is more about how the campaign is going and how it’s being fought, which is more interesting than the policies as they’re all pretty much the same.

Interesting how Labour have turned the tables somewhat and are now calling the tories the party of un-funded spending promises. Seems like a trap the tories have walked into, hence my comments about labour being one step ahead.

I just get fed up of all the campaign being dominated by the NHS, and ‘hard working families’. There is more to the UK than the NHS. How about some coherent policies on Energy, Science, Agriculture, Transport, Defence, (rather than simply Trident) etc.

Polls have not changed

Voters already bored?

Most parties regressed IMO

Only good things is that a lot of fluff has been exposed. The bad thing, people don’t care!!!

Looking like either Labour + SNP or Conservative + Lib Dem (+ UKIP?).

I can’t see any party wanting to be the minority partner in a coalition, so minority government with an alliance for the Queen’s Speech, followed by lots of horsetrading?

Government collapses after 12 to 18 months and we get to do all this again?

the lib dems knew once the present coalition went down theyd be toast and clegg would be out, so the lib dems, and the torys made it work, for similar reasons- cameron’s got several waiting in the wings to oust him

never underestimate how determined the leadership will be to cling on to power and keep a coalition running

never underestimate who determined the leadership will be to clong on to power

It’ll be very interesting if the tories are the largest party (which is a big if) but can’t put a majority together. Given Cameron’s statement about not standing again, I reckon he’s already resigned to his fate and doesn’t particularly want to win given the ball-ache of trying to scrape enough parliamentary votes to be a minority govt. This comes across in the campaign I think as he doesn’t look very motivated and outside of the hysterical attacks on Miliband the tories as a whole have been very quiet.

Whoever is in charge of the Tory campaign needs to be sacked if they want to win. Their messages so far seem to be:

1. We’re going to keep cutting because we need to reduce the deficit.
2. We’re going to make tax cuts too, plus spend more on health
3. You can trust us because we’re done a good job so far
4. Attack Ed personally

1 & 2 appear contradictory, 3 is rubbished by the evidence, and 4 makes them look weak and petty. They also don’t have any policies of any note.

Just watching bbc news at 1. Milliband shaking hands in factory(?) first guy in line quite obviously doesn’t want to be there.

Hasn’t the whole campaign been quiet and frankly dull?

Outside the party leaders we have hardly heard from anyone. Hardly any new initiatives. The media has to make up differences between the parties that (fluff parties aside) do not exist.

What has happened to the cabinet and shadow cabinets. Ok many if the Scottish ones are scared about their seats, but even so…..

A very bland election so far IMO

What has happened to the cabinet and shadow cabinets.

True, outside of Cameron/Osborne/Miliband/Balls they’ve all been conspicuously absent apart from Fallon’s hysterical intervention. Probably Brown’s fault for bigot-gate as they’re not doing the traditional constituency photo calls. They’re probably all too busy setting up phone lines and war-rooms for the looming leadership elections.

True, outside of Cameron/Osborne/Miliband/Balls they’ve all been conspicuously absent apart from Fallon’s hysterical intervention. Probably Brown’s fault for bigot-gate as they’re not doing the traditional constituency photo calls. They’re probably all too busy setting up phone lines and war-rooms for the looming leadership elections.

I think the Tories will be pretty happy with that as their view is that Milliband’s and Balls’s public perception is Labour’s greatest weakness – whether they are right, we will found out in due course.

I know the electorate is stupid

Of course, anyone who doesn’t agree with you is!

Of course, anyone who doesn’t agree with you is!

Where’d I say that then? I was referring to the tendency of the electorate in general to vote for people they know nothing about or voting on misinformation and ignorance of the issues. I wasn’t commenting on their preference. For instance, in my workplace of otherwise educated intelligent people, I’ve come across a fair few who say they’re going to vote for a particular party because they are going to win, and they want to be on the winning side!

I am sceptical of opinion polls, proved to be very inaccurate in Scotland for the referendum

They all [ bar one] Had no winning and no won. Given that what do you mean by proved to be very inaccurate?

Not much has happened IMHO the most interesting thing is the Tory change of tact on ed from demonising him and what happens with the UKIP vote which seems to be waning and how few Lib dems survive

No overall majority if a forgone conclusion and I think the Lib dems and SNP are more likely to favour Labour than Tory.
I dont think it will last long as we may get PR out of all this
We probably need to get used to hung parliaments and this may save the union/ silence the independents.

When a poll puts the Tories on 39% six points ahead of Labour, an overall majority is still a distinct possibility, albeit not the most likely outcome.

Not sure why people put so much trust in politicians as they are all in for milking the system for their own “careers”.

How many of them have been made redundant apart from being fired for involving in some scandals? Hardly any or not at all.

At the end of the day there is no such thing as fair coz they are all rubbish but people tolerate them to some extend.

Sod them all. I vote not because I have faith in them but because I need to ensure they work hard for their money …

That is a curious poll. Possibly a result of the UKIP vote receding as people come to their senses but I’m not sure that’ll have much effect on the end result.

dazh – Member

That is a curious poll. Possibly a result of the UKIP vote receding as people come to their senses but I’m not sure that’ll have much effect on the end result.

Does it matter or you have convinced yourself or trying hard to convinced yourself?

id say that poll could well be accurate, crosby wouldnt have pent millions? of pounds of tory donnor money if his tactics werent legitimate

JY, we had those Referendum polls which showed the Yes had closed right up to tie

Today’s GE poll from Guardian/ICM has Tories far ahead (6% to 7% I think) and I think these are just as false as the ones giving Labour a decent lead.

@dazh – understood, it just takes more time to follow multiple threads. On your question I think the new fixed term parliaments mean we are in campaign mode for 6 months which is not positive. It all gets very dull.

I was referring to the tendency of the electorate in general to vote for people they know nothing about or voting on misinformation and ignorance of the issues.

It came across a little differently. You are right though, I was chatting to a friend in the pub. He was bemoaning “foreigners” and “benefit scroungers” then telling me he was voting labour as the tories are not nice (he used other, equally apt words…) 😀 all because that’s what his parents had always told him!
My wife said she was going to vote green, I told her fair enough but to read their policies. She’s not voting green any more. Same with a squaddie mate, he didn’t realise what the greens propose to do to the military! I do wonder if just liked the name……
These people are by no means stupid and deserve a vote as much as anyone else, they just react to whatever their chosen media outlet feed them as you say.

Personally I’ve always trusted ICM polls more than YouGov. Not really sure why but my feel is that YouGov tend to over estimate the young leftwing vote (e.g. lib dems, SNP).

Interesting here is the result from 14-15 April 2010 (ICM for Sunday Telegraph)

Labour – 29%
Tory – 34%
Lib Dem – 27%
Other – 10%

Looking in wikipedia for the 2010 election all the polls over estimated the lib dem vote compared to reality, so it’ll be interesting to see if the same happens with UKIP, Greens and SNP this time. My gut is they will as once in the voting booth people will tend to return to put the x by one of the major 2.

Today’s GE poll from Guardian/ICM has Tories far ahead (6% to 7% I think) and I think these are just as false as the ones giving Labour a decent lead.

I’d agree. I guess with so many UKIP/greens floating about and the fact they’re not evenly spread the pollsters have trouble finding a truly representative sample.

Does it matter or you have convinced yourself or trying hard to convinced yourself?

Well on the surface it looks like the tories are benefitting at the cost of UKIP, and this won’t affect the numbers much in terms of forming a minority govt. If the tories are going to be able to form a government they’ve got to take seats off labour. There’s not much evidence that’s going to happen.

dazh – Member

Well on the surface it looks like the tories are benefitting at the cost of UKIP, and this won’t affect the numbers much in terms of forming a minority govt. If the tories are going to be able to form a government they’ve got to take seats off labour. There’s not much evidence that’s going to happen.

My view is that there will be (hopefully) a period of fragmented govt because they are all too detached from reality. There is Not one person that has the PM “look”.

Yeah, as a rough guess I’d say the UKIP voters will bottle it and vote back to Tory.

The Green voters migh have a bit more baclbone about themselves and stick with principles.

If the tories are going to be able to form a government they’ve got to take seats off labour.

I wonder if it’ll be the UKIPers who’ll do the work for Cons on this one and take voes off Lab, rather than directly swapping from Lab to Con?

I wonder if it’ll be the UKIPers who’ll do the work for Cons on this one and take voes off Lab, rather than directly swapping from Lab to Con?

That’s distinctly possible. There’s a guy I know in my office who says he’s voting UKIP and he’s a classic northern white working class lifelong labour voter, and he’s not the only one. It’s funny/tragic that the result could come down to which side has the most stupid reactionary white people who vote for UKIP instead of their normal parties.

have to agree with breatheasy on that one, I think UKIP peaked to soon and the greens and snp in particular have come into it long enough to carry on their momentum which will affect the tories and labour respectively

the whole ‘europes about to collapse’ crisis has been going on so long now that the kippers main focus has got tired

There’s a guy I know in my office who says he’s voting UKIP and he’s a classic northern white working class lifelong labour voter,

Worked on elections for a good few years in a previous job. A lot of the Lab voters wouldn’t ever consider voting Conservative but certainly don’t have what I would describe as sharing the Labour ‘values’ – UKIP is almost a viable alternative for them. Don’t think it’ll affect this years vote but if they do stick around and don’t implode then I can see some potential for damaging the Labour heartlands next time.

Not voting Labour btw, but that video they put up this morning of Osborne managing 18 times not to answer Andrew Marr as to where he will get 6 billion for nhs from is pretty funny. 😀

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/george-osborne-refuses-answer-nhs-5507896

its bizare that hes fallen into the exact same trap they seem to setup for labour

id say that the cons have a much more organised social media campaign; facebook etc

Conservatives were spending £100k a month on facebook long before the elction campaign started proper. 😯
I womder what the bill is now?