D'you think Farage might…

… have a point?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18014552

Of the euro, Mr Farage also said: “This now poses huge dangers to the continent. We face the prospect of mass civil unrest, possibly even revolution in some countries that are being driven in to total and utter desperation…

….and in other news, fire has been reported in Pudding Lane.

To be fair to Nige and his supposed “swivel-eyed extremists” in UKIP, they have been proved entirely right.

Last night on BBC4, despite hunting quite hard for some europeans to agree with his view of the demise of the Euro, Michael Portillo could only find supporters of the Euro in Greece & Germany.

Well that’s not surprising. The Germans have their entire political future invested in the “United Europe” that the Euro was supposed to smooth the way towards and the Greeks… well they just like free money.

If the euro is in crisis, what a mess the pound must be in.

http://www.x-convert.com/chart/GBP-EUR?period=10y

economic downturn always causes things like this- political extremism as the mainstream [ capitalism] has shown to be weak.

farage views on the Euro and the Eu on any issue could be written in stone as it is basically its shit and I hate it and it wont work…you mark my words.

Naturally the stone backdrop watermark would be the Union jack and it would probably have Britannia on there somewhere to.

I am sure if he keeps saying bad stuff about the EU one day something will be true.

To be fair to Nige and his supposed “swivel-eyed extremists” in UKIP, they have been proved entirely right.

I am sure if he keeps saying bad stuff about the EU one day something will be true.

Um….

Can I request that this thread remain radial tree, circle chart, histogram free please.

Don’t even bother with what politicians say. The bookies are the ones you want to listen too. They’ve got their own, not our, money riding on the outcome. A quick look online shows the odds as….

Greece dropping out of the Euro before the end of the year is presently 2/5 on
For the Euro to have completely collapsed before 2014, its presently 11/10

Anyone fancy betting against that?

Last night on BBC4, despite hunting quite hard for some europeans to agree with his view of the demise of the Euro, Michael Portillo could only find supporters of the Euro in Greece & East Germany.

FTFY

I recall the West German interviewee wanted to keep the Euro, but that Greece and other weaker economies should not be part of it.

Edit: forgot to make the point I was going to!

…..thereby supporting Farage’s claim that there is some quite antagonistic views between Greeks and Germans currently. The thing that avoids the apocolyptic view is that (amazingly in my view) Greece seems to be happier with the enforced government thrust upon them than they were with their elected representatives.

I am sure if he keeps saying bad stuff about the EU one day something will be true.

Eh? So its Nige’s fault? More really to do with the fact that the Euro was fundamentally flawed from the very off, would inevitably lead us to this point, and nobody in the corridors of power has got the remotest idea what the hell to do about it.

They can’t just carry on pouring Germany’s economic output into the bottomless money-pit indefinitely.

See bookies odds above. They seldom lose

So Nige is right. When (not if) it goes pear shaped, and Greece (for starters) can’t pay its public sector wages, or honour its private contracts, then yes… there might be the odd spot of bother.

Do you think this lot are going to actually form a government in Greece? Get real. It’d be like asking the BNP, the Socialist Workers Party, Respect, the Greens, UKIP and the remnents of the Tory, Lib Dems and Labour to form one

It aint happening! Result: chaos! Economic and literal

we (europe) are not in a pickle because of the euro*, we’re in a pickle because governments got into the habit of spending next years tax revenue.

it doesn’t matter what currency you borrow in, if you base your borrowing on a pay-rise you haven’t had yet, then you’re an idiot.

(*the idea of a single currency has it’s flaws, but they’re nothing compared to the fundamental stupidity of spending money you don’t have yet…)

The flaw was the lack of political union.

Allow Brussels / Berlin more power and it would work.

Strangely, and solely on the grounds I’ve never met a German I didn’t like, I quite like this idea.

For the Euro to have completely collapsed before 2014, its presently 11/10

Anyone fancy betting against that?

It’s 4/6 on it still remaining so I’d probably bet against it if push came to shove.

I’m with binners on this. Here’s a good one – you can get 6/4 on Ed being PM before 2020 http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/british-politics/ed-miliband-specials

If the euro is in crisis, what a mess the pound must be in.

Really?
http://www.x-convert.com/chart/GBP-EUR?period=1y

Here’s a good one – you can get 6/4 on Ed being PM before 2020

And 1/2 on him not being PM before 2020. Am I missing something here or is the idea to highlight the best odds? 😕

Yes really, the pound has hardly murmured up against the euro in the past year, despite an aparant crisis that will see the euro die a horrible painful death, and the pound certainly hasn’t regained the strength it lost in the preceding years.

So its Nige’s fault?

ye sthat was the main thrust of my post well spotted….has Hora got your log in details?

the thing is there are sets of groups having a power struggle here

there are those opposed to the Euro who want it to fail and see this as an example of why it will fail- Binners, Nige and many other
there are those who will support it whatever the political costs – Germans Eurocrats if you like and the leaders within the EU countries

there are the markets [ bookies in Binners working class world view 😉 ] who are gambling on the outcome that is uncertain.

In all honesty I dont know which will win out the pro lot could continue to support the euro and enforce it existence whatever the cost for political reasons to show it is strong enough to survive
the antis may win [ civil unrest etc] and it may fail

To claim the current economic plight of Europe is just to do with the euro or that the struggling economies would somehow be in tip top shape without the Euro is to put politics before reality.
For example

It’s a European Union of economic failure, of mass unemployment and of low growth.”

Its a western world of these things and I doubt the EU/Euro has been casual in any of this.
It may have made things better for some regions [ Germany] and worse for others med countries. We could say the same for the UK with all the growth being down south and the north shafted but I dont hear you wanting a separate Northern currency [ the butter pie?]
Change such as this takes time to be accepted and only time will tell whether it will get embedded to the point it and the consequences are just accepted like the pound is here.

not sure using bookies help tbh as they lower the odds base don bets placed so it shows us what gamblers think and I am not sure i would base my economic views on the views or the interpretation of bookies/gamblers,

I think he has a valid point – the rhetoric from new political leaders indicates that they’ve had a tits full of pulverizing austerity medicine and mean to throw it back up. It only takes one country to head towards revolution like Greece and suddenly there’s contagion, a fracturing of mainstay political parties and the rise of radicalism.

For years since the early 90’s Farage was the ridiculed lone voice for pulling out of the EU … and the laughter of those dissenters seems to be diminishing at the pace this disaster progresses.

The Eurozone project is done … it was a dream that’s turned into a nightmare within a nightmare and is only being sustained by self interested economic technocrats.

MSP – everyone wants a weak currency. But you know that right?

And 1/2 on him not being PM before 2020. Am I missing something here or is the idea to highlight the best odds?

What you’re probably missing is that 1/2 means 2 to 1 on – ie they’re not offering very good odds on that as they think it likely.

not sure using bookies help tbh as they lower the odds base don bets placed so it shows us what gamblers think and I am not sure i would base my economic views on the views or the interpretation of bookies/gamblers,

So if you think you know better, make your fortune. Bookies odds is actually a very fair marketplace.

Yes really, the pound has hardly murmured up against the euro in the past year, despite an aparant crisis that will see the euro die a horrible painful death, and the pound certainly hasn’t regained the strength it lost in the preceding years.

I can’t think why, can you? Dave and Gideon endlessly repeating the mantra that ‘its all Europe’s fault’ isn’t going to make it true. We’re ****ed because we have idiots in government who are ideologically opposed to any form of ‘intervention’ – or as we would know it – promoting economic growth. And are utterly devoid of ideas further than – print more money and give it all to our friends in the bank. Like we’ve done 3 times already with the effect that it further damaged the economy.

We’re going over the top again sir? Yes… they’d never think we’d be stupid enough to do it again!

MSP – everyone wants a weak currency. But you know that right?

No they don’t, weak currency directly leads to inflation, fighting inflation at all costs has overridden almost all political and economic aims for the past 40 years.

Don’t automatically follow the bookies.
The odds aren’t just related to the probable outcomes but the potential losses the bookies will suffer for those outcomes. If enough punters back a result, the odds have to come down.
Take England, generally available as fourth favourites for this years Euro football. Their odds will only go down from here too, as more sheep stick ther tenners on.
Don’t underestimate the power of a stupid majority to get a prediction wrong.

Edit: However, imagine the sh1te we’d be in if these gamblers’ bets actually effected the outcome. 😉

there are those opposed to the Euro who want it to fail and see this as an example of why it will fail- Binners, Nige and many other

I don’t think anyone in their right mind WANTS to see it fail. Because if/when it does, the last/this recession is going to look like afternoon tea at the Ritz

Junkyard – can you seriously see anyone in Europe who is offering anyone proposing anything other than “chuck more German money at it, and heads back in the sand and hope for the best”

There is no policy!!!! Either for recovery, for any form of economic growth, or for coping with the unemployment, plummeting living standards and subsequent civil unrest

They’re sat in Brussels (expensively) pissing in the wind!!!

Bookies odds is actually a very fair marketplace.

if you want to base your world view on what gamblers think [ and those trying to make money from what they think] then yes it a brilliant market place.
EDIT:Loum said it far more eloquently than I did.

I find these debates quite funny as I am fairly agnostic on Europe – I dont care where my leader sits when they ignore me but it gets so may people worked up that they are happy to use the boom bust of capitalism as some sort of proof that the Euro has failed..if that is your benchmark everything has failed.

You cannot use the current economic crisis as proof of anything ither than capitalism is shit and has boom and bust. It is not credible to suggest that without the euro or the eu that Europe would be a vibrant land of growth and prosperity and it was the EU or the Euro that sunk all this.

On a more positive note. Look at Iceland, revolution doesn’t need to be about civil unrest. But I guess their geothermal energy reserves aren’t really transportable by tanker.

He told the European Parliament the rise of “extreme” parties “could cause the rebirth of National Socialism” in countries such as Greece.

😆 kwality!

What you’re probably missing is that 1/2 means 2 to 1 on – ie they’re not offering very good odds on that as they think it likely.

So they think it’s more likely (1/2) for Ed NOT being PM before 2020 than he will (6/4).

And more likely the Euro will exist (4/6) in 2014 than not (11/10).

If so, that’s pretty much what I meant.

MSP – its all in the balance. There has been a hidden currency war going on for the past 2 years – the $, the £ the Swiss Fr even the Bz real all trying to weaken. Of course, the guys who really need it are the PIGS and they are unable to adjust their FX rate. So what happens – there is a massive downward adjustment in wages and/or rising unemployment. I find it interesting that folk who normally and admirably stand up for workers’ rights seem equally happy for European workers to be made to suffer under a fixed exchange rate scheme. The world is a funny place at times!

Policy makers will be perfectly happy with slightly higher rates in inflation – all part of the financial repression that we will all suffer over the next few years as gov’s seek to use inflation to reduce their debt. Int rates will stay low and below inflation stuffing the poor pensioners as a result. Savers, the old and workers all screwed. One of the few things that Brown and Balls CAN take economic credit for is staying out of the fixed exchange rate. The euro area is too large and inflexible to succeed as an optimal currency area. Farage is correct in pointing out the consequences of this but incorrect in the Little England baggage that tends to go with it.

Binners I am not here to defend capitalism but I am simply saying that Nigel and others are using events that would have occurred anyway [European downturn and recession] as a means of complaining about the EU and the Euro [ he would be doing this no matter what was happening and has been doing since he set yup UKIP]
there is a global recession hitting western countries …this is not the fault of the Euro/Eu

The euro area is too large and inflexible to succeed as an optimal currency area.

you have explained this size problem to the USA , India , China haven’t you?

So JY – do you believe that the Euro helps or hinders economic growth/recovery?

MSP – Member
MSP – everyone wants a weak currency. But you know that right?
No they don’t, weak currency directly leads to inflation, fighting inflation at all costs has overridden almost all political and economic aims for the past 40 years.

Just for interest here’s Philippe Legrain, the economics adviser to EC President (nice title) Barosso today:

A more competitive currency would be welcome: just as sterling’s collapse since 2008 has lifted UK exports, a weaker euro would help Mediterranean economies regain competitiveness for price-sensitive exports.

julianwilson – Are you serious?! have you by some chance missed the results of the Greek elections? Or not spotted the percentage of the vote the far right in France got last week?

If our elected leaders don’t start offering some realistic solutions, more imaginative than: ‘more austerity’ then other more unsavoury new voices will!!

Listening to the left wing party in Greece that may ultimately be the decision maker they are going to break the austerity agreements agreed within the eurozone.
A German government spokesman said that if Greece does not adhere to the austerity package then they will receive no more money.
It looks like Greece will re-negotiate the agreement and if Germany wants to keep the eurozone together it will have to back down.
This will give a green light to other highly indebted nations to follow Greece.
Is the Euro going to be a disaster?Nobody knows.
Greece has got political instability and it could follow that social unrest is next.

No idea 😀

Overall has the EU got a greater GDP with or without the Euro could anyone say with any certainty?

Hence it is all largely politics

Junkyard – Member
No idea . Overall has the EU got a greater GDP with or without the Euro could anyone say with any certainty?
Hence it is all largely politics

Sadly true. There is very well researched economic analysis on pros/cons of currency unions and most importantly on identifying the conditions that make regions more/less likely to be “optimal currency areas.” On balance, there is growing arguments to support that the current EU area fills few/not enough of the critical success factors to be an effective OCA. This is not a RW vs LW argument not does it rely on being an Little Englander – its basic economics.

The other thing that economics teaches us is that under fixed exchange rates fiscal polices are generally more effective that monetary policies. And yet the glorious politicians and leaders in Europe advocate which over which. And then they ignore Europe’s zombie banks as well. You couldn’t make it up….

binners, fairly serious yes, although ‘kwality’ plus emoticon probably didn’t set my position out terribly well. I mostly agree with your points on this thread esp the “more inmaginative than ‘more austerity'” bit.

It is just funny to hear Farage making the ‘extremism’ point 😀

The cynic in me says ‘scaremongering from single issue fanatic’ who if you plot UKIP up on the political compass, is just as close if not closer to the 1930s version of Natonal Socialism as the loony left parties that popped up in the greek elections. Hopefully ‘Anticapitalist Left Cooperation For The Overthrow’ (1.2%) sounds a bit catchier in Greek.

did anyone here farages rant about UKIP being shafted by the electoral commission in the london elections
he was fuming

extra funny that it turned out that UKIP hadnt written their own name down on their submission 😳

http://www.itv.com/news/london/update/2012-05-04/ukip-complain-of-internal-error-on-ballot-paper/

I hope the euro fails and we pull out Europe and then the rest will collapse like a house of cards.
Finally we will be able to prove that Britain, or rather England and Wales by that point, is better, nay, superior to the rest of Europe in all respects.
I imagine we’ll have to prove this when one of the new small, independent states forms a strategic alliance with a bigger state and then starts chopping the arms and t!ts off its next door neighbour.

We’ll have a good war, the war to end all wars, the war to prove the treaty of Versailles Brussels was an evil sham to subjugate Britain.

To look to the brighter future we must forget the mistakes we made in the past.

Only then can we repeat them.