Does anyone care what Barrack says?

We try and change it. Can’t do that if we leave.

We’ve tried and failed, even in the midst of the current crises (migration and financial) and an impending Referendum the EU was not open to change – imo as it would reverse the direction of their planned reforms.

If we Leave the EU could well change fundamentally, not least the prospect it may well disintegrate. That’s the sort of thing which frightens the IMF and the US

We’ve tried and failed

You give up on everything that easily Jam?

Your motto is ‘Quit when it gets tough’ is it? Glad I don’t work with you 🙂

🙂

We’ve tried repeatedly, we’ve even stayed out of their disasters such as Schengen and the euro but they have ploughed on regardless.

We won’t get another Referendum for another 40 years if ever, IMO we have to cease this opportunity to get out now.

Seize.

As I said, I’m glad I don’t work with you, and I’m even more glad I’m not married to you!

The EU has changed a lot since it started. It’s going to continue to change. So why give up now? It’s just out and out pessimism, AT BEST. At worst it’s xenophobia and ignorance.

That Guardian article in Lifer’s link makes interesting reading.

Obama’s/America’s reasons for wanting the UK to remain have nothing to do with our best interests, but rather they see the UK as a useful tool to promote TTIP and other American corporate interests in the EU.

If the UK votes ‘leave’, hopefully DC will call an election (to piss off Boris) and we can change our current disfunctional national government for one that’s vaguely competent (a girl can dream…).

It just feels like too much compromise and erosion of control over our own destiny.

This is the type of craziness I keep hearing from people. So despite all and sundry telling you that the economic effects will be disastrous, you’re willing to risk all that for a vague feeling that you’re not in control of your destiny?

They obviously exercise a great deal more influence over Dave than you or I

If we Leave the EU could well change fundamentally, not least the prospect it may well disintegrate. That’s the sort of thing which frightens the IMF and the US

#jambyfacts

I assume the IMF and the US have said this then jamby as you would not be just making it up now would you 🙄

Do you ever watch the news, Junky ? 😉

IMF, brexit and greek bailout – wikileaks

Yes and I understand what it means as well

they think the EU will focus on the UK leaving during the vote and tae their eye of the Greece ball

THat is true and it is not what was claimed nor does it say they re “frightened”.

Edukator – so are all the infinitives (that companies often complain about) regarding workers rights in the interests of citizens or corporates as you seem to be suggesting?

We have not tried the change the core issue – the € project. We do not want to be a part of the central core which, by design, has to move to fiscal union and therefore greater political union. We are merely spectators to that clustersf@ck. We are simple having to decide how we want to interact with this core – as members of the outer circle or a country completely outside. We have safeguarded key issues of important such as the €, Schengen etc and seem to be in pretty good shape to me. I would be very arrogant of us to be imposing change on things that are not relevant to us.

A disintegration of the EU is not in anyone’s interest Jambas

Christine lagarde reclons that Britain leaving would be a dangerous jump into the unknown. She goes on to mention the Dutch Euro-skeptic vote so it’s clear where her concerns lie. A “dangerous jump into the unknown” suggests she considers it something frightening.

I’ll give you a concrete example of how workers rights are pulled down to the lowest levels in Europe, THT.

A local aerospace subcontractor found he was being undercut by companies in other European countries where the cost of labour was lower because of:

lower wages
lower social security payments
lower redundancy payments
more flexible working hours
longer working hours
lower taxes

He closed his business and moved all of his machines to Spain, even some of his workers went with him as they were prepared to accept the conditions rather than lose their jobs.

So a dozen or so well-paid workers with excellent working conditions, health benefits and pensions either lost their jobs or ended up worse off.

So what happens when you Whistleblow on industrial scale tax avoidance via cushy deals signed off by the government of Luxembourg ? Deals that have now been investigated and declared illegal with more than €300m of fines and payments. You get accused of a crime and taken to court of course

Vicenews story

And the European Commission are working on even more new laws to ensure corporate privacy with even more punishments for whistle blowers according to Europe 1 radio sometime last week.

Nice anecdotes. But just look at eg economic performance and job numbers or lack of them in the countries you quote. You will simply see then how ridiculous your earlier claims are.

Or perhaps we can just blame the horrendous Spanish employment data on nasty foreign people invading ther domestic jobs market 😯

Now take a look at the trend in French jobs over the last 30 years. The Spanish employment data is lousy but really isn’t any worse now than when I was a “nasty foreign” person working there in the late 80s. We are all being dragged down to the lowest levels of worker rights and remuneration in Europe.

Take a look at Germany where mini-jobs and student jobs are dragging ever larger numbers into the category of working poor. (Edit: some of the working poor in Germany are Spanish)

No we are not. You are making things up now.

Nope, I’m just quoting what I’ve read:

Never so many working poor in Germany

Something easier to read from Reuters (which I haven’t read beyond the headline but will no doubt confirm). Now I’ve read it it’s out of date as they have aminimum wage except they don’t have a minimum wage because of the mini jobs law.

A disintegration of the EU is not in anyone’s interest Jambas

No its not, I never said it was. Its certainly not in the IMF’ & US’s interests nor ours. However those are not good enough reasons to continue with our membership. It is not in our interests to prop up a failing political union project. Its not our responsibility to go down with a sinking ship

@molgrips did I propose and not notice I thought we where just posting on a forum ? Sounds like a metaphor for the EU, join a common market get political union.

@Edukator what’s ironic (for the stw crowd) is you are living in the sort of “left wing paradise” many stw-ers pine for and you are pro-Leave as is my French wife.

I’m pro-remain (as I’ve stated twice on this thread), you’ll be happy to hear I don’t have a vote. 🙂

There’s a lot wrong with the EU but I agree with Molgrips when he says it’s better to try and change it from within than leave. Given the rise of the anti-Europe parties in so many countries I think that Britain leaving would be the beginning of the end but it won’t happen. The polls say it won’t happen and a significant amount of my own money says it won’t happen. If I’m wrong feel free to laugh very loud and bump this thread to rub my nose in it.

I’m pro-remain (as I’ve stated twice on this thread)

oil and water
😆

Emulsifier.

Dazh, it’s not a crazy feeling that we’re not in control of our own destiny in the EU. We’re not in many areas. And the intentions of the EU is clear, ever closer union towards effectively a United States of Europe. Some might feel ok and comfortable with that, but not me. No thank you. We have enough trouble trying to hold our own MPs to account. We’ve got no chance with the MEPs. Whilst we remain in the EU there are limitations imposed on us as to how we can trade with non-EU countries, so given what I said before if we cut our ties we are free to go after the far more significant trade on offer with non-EU countries over the coming decades.

This concept of remaining in for some sentimental reason doesn’t appeal. We need to look at this objectively. The inners case for EU membership benefits for security, defence, trade have been proved to be overstated I think, the case around immigration is largely irrelevant as we’ve never been in Shengen, and bloated MEPs living the life of fine dining, vintage wine, globetrotting on private jets and paying a favourable income tax rate of only 21%, all at the expense of the EU taxpayers makes our own MPs expenses scandal look like some petty pilfering. The last point may be somewhat exaggerated for effect, but still the point is valid, especially on the preferential income tax rate.

Go on, I’m still undecided believe it or not, I understand the issue around the big risks and unknowns around leaving and it is a risk, so in reality despite what I’ve said and am testing the brexit argument and trying to break down the points for brexit, but am struggling to be fair, I’m hoping the remain camp will suddenly get into another gear. But still I’m not up for remaining for sentimentality or some notion that the are our friends and neighbours. They don’t look on us in the same way. We’ve never really been on the same page as our European friends, we just seem to somehow be fundamentally different in an unreconcilable way. So we either conform and remain, or continue on our own terms in our own way without them. The big question is have we actually benefitted from being in the EU? We know for sure we have definately benefitted from remaining out of the Euro.

the intentions of the EU is clear, ever closer union towards effectively a United States of Europe.

Which we are exempt from

The big question is have we actually benefitted from being in the EU?

Free movement, trade, easier travel, closer ties

I think we have

I think many feel as you do and its hard to be passionately pro the EU.
That said nothing would make me cross the lobbies with the Brext lot them seem to be largely made up of loons with farcical arguments.

Do as we say and not as we do …

James Clapper, the US Director of National Intelligence, warned the free movement of citizens around the EU was “in conflict” with the need to protect security.

Link[/url]

I’m pro-remain (as I’ve stated twice on this thread), you’ll be happy to hear I don’t have a vote.

😳 and phew 😉

I think many feel as you do and its hard to be passionately pro the EU.
That said nothing would make me cross the lobbies with the Brext lot them seem to be largely made up of loons with farcical arguments.

There-in lies one of fhe fundamental problems with the in lobby/campaign, there is very little to be enthusiastic about. The future looks bleak but you are just going to go with it. Its a big risk for the in-vote as people with no motivation or enthusiasm are much less likely to vore. You second sentence is just deja-vu.

Of course there hae been benefits to being in the EU but have those benefits been worth the financial and non-financial cost and more importantly will those or other benefits continue to acrue into the future and what will future the costs look like ?

How does “yes” grab you?

Jambas on what have the Romans Eu ever done for us and it’s cost, I would suggest a quick read of Martin Wolfe in yesterday’s FT. For starters

Trade with EU members has increased 55% at a fiscal cost equivalent to a mere 0.5% of GDP. A pretty good (!) trade by any standards. That’s the starter for 10…….

This concept of remaining in for some sentimental reason doesn’t appeal.

I can assure you I have no sentimental attachment to the EU. But the practical and logical reasons for remaining are obvious. I’m not going to list them, that’s been done ad infinitum, but what I would say is that following WW2, we’ve had 70 years of peace and prosperity which is due largely to an approach which favours cooperation with our closest neighbours rather than competing and fighting with them. The EU is the central part of that post-war society settlement which I have no wish to see it dismantled because of irrelevant and small fry issues. Like I said, the future is going to be about less well defined natiional identities, boundaries, cultures and economics. It’s already happening now, and we benefit from it in a multitude of ways so stepping outside of that and isolating ourselves is an idiotic move.

New thread title?

Does anyone care what the OECD says?

1. Uncertainty already having a negative impact
2. Economic policy uncertainty also increasing

ok obvious so far

3. A vote for Brexit would lead to considerable uncertainty in the near term, further lifting risk premia and hurting confidence
4. Brexit would generate a large negative shock to the UK economy, which would spill over to other European countries
5. Immigrants, particularly from other EU countries, have boosted GDP growth significantly in the UK

Even more bearish than the Treasury since they see the negative impacts affecting us much sooner.

Bloody cheek 😉

This thread should just be joined onto end of on of the other EU threads – many other forums do that sort of thing

OECD analysis assumes no new trade deals with anyone ! Also shows after inital “shock” there is no difference. Assumptions assumptions. Dip in GDP imo has zero to do with Referendum. OECD like other organisations is afraid EUnwill fall apart if we leave, thats no reason for us to go down with the ship.

Controlled immigration would have delieverd greater benefits imho, it’s worked fabulously well for the US, Canada and Australia

well we can continue to ignore what is an impressive list of organisations and professional bodies….

This thread should just be joined onto end of on of the other EU threads – many other forums do that sort of thing

Reckon it slots somewhere between pages 7 and 10….

Controlled immigration would have delieverd greater benefits imho, it’s worked fabulously well for the US, Canada and Australia

Just ask the Mexicans…
You also can’t turn down refugees though playing the game of being further away from the problem does make it easier to pretend it’s not happening.

But if all else fails head to route one lie and scare. It’s worked (many) millions of times before

following WW2, we’ve had 70 years of peace and prosperity which is due largely to an approach which favours cooperation with our closest neighbours rather than competing and fighting with them

Nuclear weapons and million+ US and UK troops stationed in Germany, more effective United Nations, not repeating “Reparations” mistakes of WW1

EU foreign policy has been a disaster be that selling warships to Russia, Ukraine/Crimea or the handling of the migrant crises

EU policies have lead to the rise of the far right in France and in Austria and the creationnof UKIP a party now polling more votes than Labour have lost since the Blair heyday

well we can continue to ignore what is an impressive list of organisations and professional bodies

Stop Press. International bodies come out in favour of other international bodies. We keep going round in circles but those organisations are terrified about a total collapse of the EU with Brexit being the catalyst, they want us in the EU tomprop it come come the Greek default and associated contagion

Pick up your phone!!

@mike a very significant portion of the “refugees” from Syria are Pakistanis and Bangladeshis, likewise from Libyabthey are from sub-saharan Africa. This could have been dealt with via tye UK approach aid / taking genuine refugees from camps vetted by the eu. Shegen and EU countries ignoring Dublin agreement have kead to,illegal passage throughout the eu. Geneva Convention says you must claim asylum in the first safe country you come to

In the longer term, it calculates that more restrictive trading arrangements with the EU alongside less competition, lower foreign direct investment and fewer skilled immigrants, would hit gross domestic product by a central estimate of 5 per cent, slightly less than the Treasury’s 6.2 per cent figure.

-5% seems like a difference to me!! albeit less than the Treasury version

Geneva Convention says you must claim asylum in the first safe country you come to

Yes, that is really convenient if you want to keep the nasty foreign people as far away as possible. that one needs an update.
One of the advantages of the EU is it should allow for members to spread the load

Jamba you’re beginning to sound like JHJ. It’s all a conspiracy between the OECD, IMF, EU, US, UK Govt etc. The ZMs are conspiring against the little people to keep us all in our place, and the only people standing up to them are visionary rebels like Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and George Galloway 😀

BTW, don’t you live in France?