as well as graphing data, try and graphically predict* what you expect first.
*old skool, back of envelope, biro.
Your prediction will rarely be 100% accurate, but you should be able to describe discrepancies between your observed and predicted graphs. If you cant, go back to the data and work it out from first principles.
If you catch yourself saying things like: “oh thats just the way the function calculates that”, or “there’s bound to be outliers”, or “the inputs aren’t all clean”…then double check, because you’re making excuses for variation, not describing their causes.
I built my career on data analysis and no matter how hard you try, you will always make mistakes. But they should be so minor that they are obscure and de minimis in their effect on output and any deductions drawn.
However, I found the older and less interested in my work I got the less obscure and the less de minimis my mistakes became. So I chose to change my role away from heavy analytical lifting. I still do analysis but I do so in far simpler models and keep clear of complex projects. Im lucky to have the luxury of that choice now.
Good, accurate analysis is not easy and it takes concentration and focus. I can’t do it like I used to any more.