Current Bike discounts and demand flop?

Curious really what the STW hive thoughts are on the current balance between demand and supply.  I was thinking, maybe, getting my first eBike next spring but two of my usual group have jumped the gun and snaffled a heavily discounted Orbea Rise each. 2022 models, but is the discount because of the arrival of the 2023 models, or is there now an oversupply, the catching up I suppose of that perhaps false peak demand in Covid times.

Likewise, a massive discount on the 22 year spesh Kenevo SL, and that Privateer e161 had a decent chunk off it.  They aren’t BSO brands!

It came to mind really with that recent 40% of SC 5010 at Stif. Is it that obsolete a build that they have to shift them with a heavy discount, or is it just there is no market.  Maybe the former, as they are also selling off, massively discounted but still “expensive” 650b suspension forks.

Subliminally, I want someone to tell me I won’t have missed the discount boat if I wait till Spring. Hoping for 40% off a Levo SL!

Interest rates are high and there is a cost of living crisis. This has hit when the massive orders manufacturers put in due to the massive demand during COVID have finally been made. As a result there is oversupply, hence big discounts

Not sure on the E-bikes.

Meanwhile some bike manufacturers still think there’s money to be made…

https://www.bmc-switzerland.com/eu_en/bmc/road/aero-triathlon/speedmachine.html

TWENTY THREE THOUSAND EUROS.

I’ll be needing a lot of that gold the Nazis stole from Jews and still have stashed in Switzerland’s corrupt banks, to get one.

Oversupply, and for the brands that do model years this is the traditional time for discounting and clearing out older stuff.

The 5010s on offer are the newer mullet ones, so not as unfashionable as the previous 27.5-only. It’s probably playing to the stereotype, but the folks I know with Santa Cruz aren’t really price sensitive and if there’s a new model they want they just get it bought. That 5010 was launched over a year ago, Stif seem to be sitting on loads of stock as they have all sizes and most colours/specs available. Wonder if there’s an alloy version on the way.

Certini have 50% off Levo SL comp carbon at £3500. M-XL.

https://www.certini.co.uk/bikes/electric-bikes/2022-specialized-turbo-levo-sl-comp-carbon-electric-mountain-bike__67582

I finally convinced my dad to buy one at that price.

I think we’re back to the good old days where bikes get discounted regularly… it’s just a question of what and when.

Sadly for me this doesn’t seem to be a DH thing, so i paid lots for our Session, but it’s a lovely thing 🙂

As some have seen, Rocky Mountain are bonkers money too, plenty of others thought at 25%, but the 40-50% off are more common than you’d expect at the moment.

I blame a small number of big manufacturers. They basically said ‘hey we’ve sold a load of bikes, better make a load more to refill warehouses’ and ordered a metric s*** load of bike parts to do so at the height of the pandemic. That screwed up the whole system and created a feedback loop that caused lead times to rocket.

Then after 18 months of great sales, the hangover arrived at just the same time as the many years worth of parts everyone was forced to order. So now everyone has way more parts/bikes than they need in a normal year, with a market that is the worst it’s been in decades.

It will sort itself out next year, we expect normal service to resume by 2025!

Others in the industry will be able to put it better than me but the way I see it is:

During Covid a lot of ‘casuals’ bought bikes. They’ve either lost interest or now have a bike. They don’t need another one. No demand.

For those on low incomes, food, insurance, rent has gone through the absolute roof. Putting food on the table is a struggle, changing bikes simply isn’t feasible at the moment. No demand.

Many homeowners who would previously describe themselves as ‘comfortable’ are facing or have faced a major mortgage increase. This has come out of disposable income that would have gone elsewhere. No demand.

Modern bikes are so good that they last well and are obsolete a lot less quickly. Geometry has settled a little in the last couple of years. Some will have to have the new bike but many will think why not keep what I have a bit longer? Less demand.

Post Covid overstock. Stock costs money, so potentially better sold for some money than sitting in a warehouse earning nothing.

Pretty dreadful winter and summer for riding. The constant grey and drizzle puts even the keenest of riders off sometimes. Again, less demand.

Overall a high quantity of stock, plus low demand equals an absolute mess for retailers and brands. As I said I’m not in the industry, but I can see next year being even worse for retailers with some huge discounts. Not a great time to be in the industry.

I’ve been in the market for a new road bike for sometime, still 10 speed and v brakes, but to get the same level of bike is frankly ridiculous cost .  there is nothing wrong with the old bike so I’m keeping it going.   I’m hoping rrps are going to start heading downwards to sensible levels

i heard a big german company were paying £10s of thousands a week to have overstock sit at a UK port, may as well sell it off cheap to a company like CRC/wiggle.

simple economics, plus wheel standards, geometry and boost etc seem to have settled. so no need to buy the latest bike, plus it looks like high pivot could go big once specialize / giant join in

from deviate, forbidden to hope, cannondale and onto GT / trek.

think I’ll wait out the next purchase for a few years

That Certini discount is amazing !

A bit of everything.  We have the hang over from the post Covid boom, the fact that a lot of prices were probably set about 12 months ago just as sterling nearly hit parity against the dollar, and it is that time of year when stock tends to get cleared out.  And maybe bike prices have found a ceiling in the current environment.

Aren’t these discounts merely returning prices to what they were a few years ago before MTBing turned into the new golf? I don’t think they’re “cheap” at all. More to come methinks.

Meanwhile some bike manufacturers still think there’s money to be made…

https://www.bmc-switzerland.com/eu_en/bmc/road/aero-triathlon/speedmachine.html

TWENTY THREE THOUSAND EUROS.

I’ll be needing a lot of that gold the Nazis stole from Jews and still have stashed in Switzerland’s corrupt banks, to get one.

whats odd is that bike is exactly the same as the one which costs 16k, but comes with a box, an aero measuring device and “access” to a holiday..

The Certini deal is really rather attractive..seems bizarre they can just wipe 50% off the price. It’s not exactly a shabby bike.

Pre covid September was always a good time to pick up a bike but from what I recall it was always what was left so there would be different sizes available for different models. This feels different because there are huge amounts of stock available.

I agree with Rich_s above the list prices are very high and there is lots of stock. there is more to come.

I just wonder if Brexit will play a hand in reduced allocation to the UK next year.

All been said but people are not buying bikes atm. Second hand market is also dead, some real bargains about.

<span style=”color: #000000; font-family: Roboto, ‘Helvetica Neue’, Arial, ‘Noto Sans’, sans-serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ‘Segoe UI’, ‘Apple Color Emoji’, ‘Segoe UI Emoji’, ‘Segoe UI Symbol’, ‘Noto Color Emoji’;”>i heard a big german company were paying £10s of thousands a week to have overstock sit at a UK port, may as well sell it off cheap to a company like CRC/wiggle.</span>

Given they’ve just posted massive losses, I doubt they’ll be lapping up other companies over-stock.

It’s worked quite nicely for me, I’ve just picked up another CX bike in the Wiggle sale that is the same spec (bar finishing kit being budget FSA instead of budget Prime) for £400 less that the first one cost me in 2021, the new one was already discounted 26% and then a further 10% with their summer sale code it made it rather pointless contemplating buying a used one; speaking of which some of the used / 2nd CX bikes out there are priced at such insane levels it makes me wonder what the owners are thinking, like for example a 2020 Crux selling for £700 under original retail!

Bike shed uk had some Kenevo sl experts for £3500! Unbelievable price. All sold out now. I originally ordered one but then cancelled as it wasn’t the right bike for me (got pulled in by the discount). But when I cancelled it I asked why they were so cheap, was it a pricing error? And they said they got 30 on a deal and was selling cheap.

Certini have 50% off Levo SL comp carbon at £3500. M-XL.

NX groupo and basic fox suss, mid range brakes. Hardly sounds worthy of a £7k Ebike.

For £3 1/2K its a great deal though.

If I’d £7k to spend I reckon I could come up with full fat and factory for that money.

2nd CX bikes out there are priced at such insane levels it makes me wonder what the owners are thinking, like for example a 2020 Crux selling for £700 under original retail!

Priced at that or actually selling at that price?

A few used bikes I’ve seen have had some very fanciful asking prices recently!

Yep £7k for the levo SL is mental but 3.5k seems fairly reasonable in the world of emtb from specialized, given carbon full Sus bikes around that price tend to be similarly specced.

other problem for the 2nd hand market is many have access to c2w.  so they can already get a hefty discount off retail and a warrenty makes buying second hand not worth it unless.its 40% or more off rrp.

https://www.bikeperfect.com/features/bespoken-word-how-much-trouble-is-the-bike-business-in

Others in the industry will be able to put it better than me but the way I see it is:

During Covid a lot of ‘casuals’ bought bikes. They’ve either lost interest or now have a bike. They don’t need another one. No demand.

For those on low incomes, food, insurance, rent has gone through the absolute roof. Putting food on the table is a struggle, changing bikes simply isn’t feasible at the moment. No demand.

Many homeowners who would previously describe themselves as ‘comfortable’ are facing or have faced a major mortgage increase. This has come out of disposable income that would have gone elsewhere. No demand.

Modern bikes are so good that they last well and are obsolete a lot less quickly. Geometry has settled a little in the last couple of years. Some will have to have the new bike but many will think why not keep what I have a bit longer? Less demand.

Post Covid overstock. Stock costs money, so potentially better sold for some money than sitting in a warehouse earning nothing.

Pretty dreadful winter and summer for riding. The constant grey and drizzle puts even the keenest of riders off sometimes. Again, less demand.

Overall a high quantity of stock, plus low demand equals an absolute mess for retailers and brands. As I said I’m not in the industry, but I can see next year being even worse for retailers with some huge discounts. Not a great time to be in the industry.

There’s lots of things driving down demand but I think the Bicycle industry has been inflating prices a bit ahead of the curve for a few years too, in no small part because consumer credit has been growing as a way to fund a bike, they’ve basically been trying to become the motor industry where easy credit drives steady annual sales.

The main thing they’re possibly finding now is that punters (who are probably more financially squeezed than they’ve been in ~15+ years) are less and less willing to take on new debt right now, even a few quid a month for a bike, especially if they already have a perfectly good bike already. The only area that’s going to see sales growth is probably the cheaper end of the market, bikes you don’t need to sell a kidney for or take out a loan.

I think the dream of mega-growth in the bicycle sector is at least on pause until maybe early 2025(?)

2nd CX bikes out there are priced at such insane levels it makes me wonder what the owners are thinking, like for example a 2020 Crux selling for £700 under original retail!

At the top end perhaps, but for the muggles like me just making up the numbers, just about any Al framed CX/Gravel bike stripped down to the bare essentials will still do for CX, those wishful prices for a flagship Carbon CX race machine don’t have to apply to everyone lining up to race. Odds are that person trying to shift a ’20 Crux for silly money has some bills to pay and the bike is an asset they need to liquidate now.

The Certini deal is really rather attractive..seems bizarre they can just wipe 50% off the price. It’s not exactly a shabby bike.

Certini can’t.  But Specialized can if they’ve a ton of overstock and they’ve got to go, now!  I also think someone got a bit over keen when pricing the UK Specialized stock last year, I just bought a Crux Expert with 35% discount, but personally I think it was a grand over priced in the 1st place compared to the competition, like for like spec.

People aren’t buying anything at the moment – pretty much all retail is down this summer from what I’m hearing. My shop dropped 20% in sales in August due to the rain and current economic climate!

New bikes particularly have hit a massive slump with shops, distribution and manufacturing all holding stock of what are now year old bikes. Bike shops (as well as many others) will be folding in their droves by the end of the year. A boost of sales in 2020 caught manufacturers unawares so they increased production in 2021 / 2022 and now a large slump in sales means large discounts just to recoup some money.

Shops that have a good workshop and sales backup will be fine, those relying on bike sales, not so much.

The new race bike I’m considering next year can be had for nearly half price now, I just don’t have the funds / space in my mancave yet. 🙁

Epic Evos have been on offer from Specialized in a few places over the past few months.

Specialized have to keep their production lines running, otherwise they’ll lose them. I think that there are a few models that will be up for renewal that they’ll be trying to run down stock on.

wowser im really tempted by the epic evo deal that certini have – i just dont need another bike right now and have all bases covered with the incumbent fleet. Seeing the levels of discounting going on does make me think the bike industry have been properly taking the p 155 over the last few years, guess now their chickens have come home to roost!

I picked up a bike a few months ago with a huge saving on RRP so I’m sorted for the foreseeable future. Also I missed summer this year. Did it even happen? I haven’t ridden much due to constant rain and a persistent chest infection so I’m spending nothing on consumables or travelling.

Luckily our mortgage and bills have been fixed for a long time but that ends next year and Lord knows what the impact will be. We’re bracing ourselves for that so our plans for new cars and holidays are scrapped.

The one thing I’d love to see slashed in price is tyres. I used to love having a selection and experimenting with different models but at 50-60 quid a pop I play it safe.

I think there are some current bargains that we won’t see again. The carbon Nukeproof Mega for £499 or Fox performance suspension for around £300 for instance.

There have always been massive discounts at this time of year on bikes. I bought a Santa Cruz 5010 from Start Fitness back in 2016 and got 40% off. Same with the Orbea Rise I bought this time last year, which had 40% off.  To be honest over the 30 years of cycling I don’t think I have ever bought a bike that hasn’t had at least 20% off the price. I ride for a summer and then think I need a new bike, right when they are shifting stock.

Yes, it is to do with overstock but more that there is a finite few months when people buy bikes and they never want to run out in the spring and summer. they then have to clear their stocks for the new stuff on its way from Taiwan. Also, a lot of shops and distributors get good prices next year based on them shifting stock. Sometimes you want to just cover your costs so you have money in the bank to pay for the new stock coming in. Last thing you want is a £5,000 bike on the shelf that is a couple of years old, who is going to buy that when bike tech is constantly changing.

Are riders offloading normal MTBs and moving over to eMTBs hence a shrinking non-eMTB market ?

Are riders offloading normal MTBs and moving over to eMTBs hence a shrinking non-eMTB market ?

Lots… just looking on Pinkbike with ‘swap’ shows it… most of the swaps are wanting to move to Ebikes.

Specialized are trying to shift SL 1.1 motor bikes to clear stock for 1.2s it seems. Rutland were trying to sell me a Kenevo SL expert a couple of month ago for £3750 and I’ve seen similar deals mentioned elsewhere.

I do also think we lost track of what we once considered cheap. Covid drove prices up high and now they are back to reasonable levels. Not rock bottom yet.

But I do think getting full carbon bikes with high end spec for 2-3k quite a good deal.

I built a commencal meta sx last year but find myself wanting a trail bike bargain.

Some interesting maths in that article referenced above…

To put some numbers to that the Accell group (which includes Haibike, Ghost, Lapierre, Raleigh and others) currently have seen their unsold stock levels increase by 70 percent. That’s €936 million of unsold gear, compared to their usual pre-pandemic figure of €300-350 million.

from https://www.bikeperfect.com/features/bespoken-word-how-much-trouble-is-the-bike-business-in

Yea, but if they’ve doubled(and then some) the prices of said kit it’s not far off the same inventory….