Brexit 2020+

I believe being principled and truthful on this would overall be a vote winner.

The polar opposite was true back in 2016 when that accursed referendum happened – which is how we got into this mess in the first place.

Look, if Starmer’s advisors are telling him that he has to pretend to be thick by keeping up the pretence that Brexit can be made to work, then fine. If their strategy and command of the numbers is on point, then great.

They’ve lost my vote – I can’t vote for someone of Starmer’s intellect and experience pretending to be a dunce. But, according to whoever is advising Starmer, my vote doesn’t matter anyway. So I can vote with a clear conscience and still get rid of the Tories. 👍

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is politics. 🤷‍♂️

Again – Fix the ship before setting sail.  Labour need to get elected first, then they can change course.

Reversing Brexit isn’t going to get them into power, or it will, but with less majority than they need to affect change.

If I read Labour’s “Make Brexit Work” 5 step statement, it’s very much pro-European:

1. Sort on NI – This can be sorted quickly by alignment with EU rules, even over time.
2. Remove unnecessary trade barriers – the easiest and best way to do this is to align with Europe, which will further the cause for rejoining later as it’ll be almost seamless.
3. Align qualifications and funding mechanisms for industry and research – again, alignment.
4. Strengthen co-operation with our allies to provide security…so alignment.
5. Regulation, Investment and funding.  Use our ability outside of the EU  to change regulation to suit British needs…this doesn’t say that the needs of Britain are different to those of Europe…If they’re not, our regulation could again align to provide access to European goods on better terms, driving down costs and enabling access. I sense alignment.

Literally nothing in there is actually about Brexit, it’s about making the UK work better.  All of these things could be sold as making Brexit work whilst smoothing the path for rejoining.  In 5 years, if the economy is working they can hail the plan, the trade, the growth, the contentment and say “look, you’re practically European, what was all this Brexit bollocks about?”

Again – you cannot fix the ship properly without reversing brexit.  Its the key thing.  The continuing and compounding economic hit from brexit makes it harder

None of those 5 things will make any significant differnce

I cannot vote for a party that supports brexit – nor will many others.  Its a red line

Then you’re a fool as you’re reading the words, not the meaning and will likely end up with a poorer lot as a result.

Blind faith to an ideal without acknowledgement of the practicalities paints you with the same brush as those you abhor – Brexiteers.

Or your the fool as you are reading into them things that are not there? 😉

How on earth can they compensate for the huge hit to exports?  to the loss of financial services?  Only rejoining the CU and SM can get rid of trade barriers – and also the EU have made it clear the withdrawal agreement is not going to be renegotiated

Wishful thinking is no substitute for concrete action

Daffy
Full Member

My last information from April 2023 said that fewer than 1 in 5 classed Brexit/Rejoin as an election deciding issue. It may be costing him some votes, but I’d wager it’s not a lot.

It’s not so simple though. Question is, how many of the 1/5 are brexit supporters that might vote Tory or Labour, with them both taking a similar brexit stance. And how many of the anti-brexit people are pushed away? On average- and this is very crude- brexiteers are still more likely to be tories and the more intense you are about it, the more likely. A tory brexiteer won’t become a Labour brexiteer just because Labour are brexiteers or vice versa. Meanwhile a naturally Labour returner, or even pissed off remainer, could definitely be put off, and move to another party or just won’t vote. So it’s entirely possible that Labour and the Tories could take identical brexit stances and that the Tories are the winners from that.

I don’t know how it breaks- but I bet it’s not as simple as it looks. I’ll be looking very carefully at the electoral maths close to the election but man, I really hope I don’t have to think about tactically voting Labour. I hope I’d be pragmatic and do it but I really, really don’t want to. And I’m not a beautiful and unique snowflake or especially dogmatic so if that’s where I am, I guarantee there are people who’re raging about brexit and now raging at Labour who will vote SNP or Lib Dem or Green or Plaid or just not vote.

I think basically there’s a huge amount of this that is complicated but that people are pretending is simple. On all levels up to and including party leaders. I don’t think anyone that thinks it’s not, should be making decisions with any more political impact than how they personally vote, but that’s by the by.

jamesoz
Full Member

I’m sure it’s been posted before but wouldn’t rejoining require adopting the Euro?

Nope, it’s a classic anti-EU myth but also a classic EU fudge. You’re required to commit to joining the euro and… that’s it. There’s no mechanism to force you or even encourage you. And in practice, it’s extremely simple to just make sure you don’t meet the criteria and not be allowed to join the euro, while pretending you want to. That was the traditional approach, but in practice more recently the EU have just said “meh, don’t do it if you don’t want to” and that it’s an individual nation’s choice, just to accept the actual reality

I’m not very convinced that the UK would meet the euro criteria now tbf. Brucewee was a bit rude about it but he’s right that this is a scottish indyref unsinkable rubber duck so it’s an argument we’ve seen played out for years, we’ve been told endlessly that Scotland would have to take the euro. In practice, iScotland wouldn’t be allowed to, not for a while. And if the independence movement ever says “Yeah, our plan now is to take the euro” then everyone that used to say we’d have to, would instantly pivot to saying that we wouldn’t be allowed to. The same I’m sure would apply to the UK rejoining.

If full-bore EU re-entryism is so popular, why did it crater the Lib Dems and why aren’t the Lib Dems popular again?

I would never vote for them ever again after the student finance debacle. That has sunk them for all time with a lot of the electorate just as they were starting to be credible.

It also starkly illustrates the short-termism of modern politicians.

SKS originally spoke passionately about remain and rejoin/do-over.  It got him nowhere other than Labour Leader.  The polls clearly show that Rejoin/Brexit is NOT a vote winning issue, so if you’re primary objective is to secretly rejoin the EU, but first you have to get elected and to do that you have to NOT alienate a large (30% block) of Brexiteers, what must you do?  Walk like a duck, quack like a duck, but not wholly transform into a duck.

If you want to go back to the EU – Labour in majority (either wholly or in coalition) is your only chance of doing so.  You can run the risk of voting for minorities and forcing the issue through them, or you can get behind Labour to get the tories out with a large majority and start fixing the bloody ship.

Yours, an active Liberal Democrat.

Daffy – don’t forget that I live in Scotland so have far more choice than labour or tory to vote for and the tories have zero chance in my seat.  My seat will be an anti tory seat no matter what.  whatever I vote has no bearing on a labour government apart from if I vote SNP or green and as is highly likely the SNP win my seat will be represented by a pro europe party that does not gaslight over europe.

Labour need to get elected first, then they can change course.

Labour will write a manifesto, and if elected, that will shape their decisions over the duration of their reign.

If their manifesto allows for a substantial improvement of the brexit disaster, I might well vote for them. But based on what they have said, I think this is highly unlikely.

If you think Labour will get elected on a pro-hard-brexit manifesto, and then immediately say “ha ha fooled you all, we’re going to rejoin the SM+CU” then I’m afraid you are utterly delusional.

The polls clearly show that Rejoin/Brexit is NOT a vote winning issue

I disagree strongly as do many pundits. That is just your opinion not a fact as is my position

Once again – I think living in Scotland with a huge pro EU majority and Plenty of Pro EU parties to vote for gives a very differnt perspective

Up here labours EU stance is a clear vote loser

I would never vote for them ever again after the student finance debacle. That has sunk them for all time with a lot of the electorate just as they were starting to be credible.

It also starkly illustrates the short-termism of modern politicians.

This shit again.  Yes they gave up a lot, but have you looked what else they accomplished as a brake on Tory policies in those years?  Had LD not conceded this issue, you’d have lost a lot more and the Tories would’ve still rammed it through in a subsequent, non-coalition government.  Yes, it sucks, but had we got another government shortly, it might’ve been overturned.  But headline readers hung the LD for it without ever really understanding the whole truth.  Read up on it.  Minimum wage, personal tax threshold, healthcare, benefits, environmental incentives.

In who’s interest was it that headlines flamed the LD?  Was it perhaps the party which then won an outright majority on their fall from grace?

I disagree strongly as do many pundits. That is just your opinion not a fact as is my position

Yours is an opinion, mine is not, it’s fact and can be shown through several polls, surveys, etc.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/will-brexit-matter-at-the-next-election/#:~:text=When%20asked%20what%20the%20most,across%20and%20within%20political%20parties.

It’s also borne out by what I see/hear when I speak to people when campaigning for the LD.  What’s your supporting evidence?

Once again – I think living in Scotland with a huge pro EU majority and Plenty of Pro EU parties to vote for gives a very differnt perspective

LOL – I live in Bath and work in Bristol.  57% Remain and 62% Remain respectively.  I went door to door in 2016, I was welcomed, harassed, spat on, shouted at and threatened while campaigning for Remain.  What did you do?

What’re you doing NOW?  You’re retired, yes?  Lots of free time?  USE IT!

I have to go now, it’s finally home time.  🙂

Its still an opinion Daffy not a fact.  Looking at the polling and the local election results I see Starmers brexiteer stance losing him significant votes

In Scotland 70% want to rejoin.

Yes they gave up a lot, but have you looked what else they accomplished as a brake on Tory policies in those years?

If they hadn’t supported them the tory government would have fallen – they acheived less than nothing. they supported a vile tory government and did not act as a brake at all.  They gave away all their power by stating they were there for the long run and would not collapse the government

Oh – and as for what I am doing with my time – I am campaigning for assisted dying – an non party political issue.  Its exhausting.

I do not need to campaign for rejoin.  Its the settled will of the scottish people.  No minds to change here

from your link

“Overall, the electorate are split relatively evenly across these categories, with 37% saying they would be most likely to support a party in favour or joining the EU, 28% a party that is against joining and 36% saying they would be most likely to vote for a party that prioritises other issues.”

Hardly a ringing endorsement of Starmers position

Looking at the polling and the local election results I see Starmers brexiteer stance losing him significant votes

with those lost votes translating into 500 gained seats….. hmmm. Sorry, I know it’s boring and I said I wasn’t bothering any more but that ^ is just wrong. Even if it’s your opinion, it’s demonstrably wrong.

In Scotland more than 70% want to rejoin

Really? Evidence?

I’m not voting Labour.

They don’t need the rejoin vote, apparently.

That’s literally it for me.

Libdem or Green it is.

👍

SUPPORT among Scottish voters to rejoin the EU is soaring, a poll has revealed.

A new Panelbase survey has found Scotland is even more opposed to Brexit than in 2016, when 62% voted against it.

Now, 72% have said they would vote to remain, while 69% would vote to rejoin the EU, up from 61% in January.

From the national last year.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20680808.support-rejoining-eu-skyrockets-among-voters-scotland/

Yes Jonv – but with a pro EU stance they would also have taken some of the 500 seats that went to lib dem and green.  thats my opinion.  when the tories lose 1000 seats but labour only gains 500 of them thats a disappointment for labour and no endorsement of their stance.  where there is a credible pro EU party to vote for many voters took that choice and voted pro EU.

Up here I have no doubt at all Starmers pro brexit position will cost them loads of seats.  SNP are very weak and vulnerable and even the best projections show labour still coming 2nd to the SNP and given how soft the labour vote is once the SNP and greens start hammering them on being brexiteers in the campaign I am sure the ;labour vote share will slip

This shit again.

Yes, this shit again. Little Nicky got a smell of official car leather interior and lost his scruples and mind, failed to press his advantage on holding the balance of power and delivered us all to Austerity. With a working spine he might have achieved great things but all we got were wasted opportunities.

The ability to say no was open to both sides in the coalition one side used theirs and threatened the junior partner with loss of governing influence. A stiffer spine and we may well have reined in Cameron and Osborne to better social democracy as without LD support they could have achieved nothing. Remember that, nothing would have been possible in a hung parliament.

The risk to LD support was a zero sum. No support be crucified by the press, support and be crucified by the electorate. Of the two the press would have been easier to neuter.

 SNP are very weak and vulnerable and even the best projections show labour still coming 2nd to the SNP

Not according to John Curtice, the current police investigation has made no difference to voting intentions.

That says that if we had the referendum today that 72% would vote to remain. Not that they vote to rejoin

69% (which is not last time I checked ‘more than 70%’) said they would vote to rejoin.

To extrapolate – 3% wish we hadn’t done it but don’t see the point in reversing now.

That’s the issue – in constituencies where that 3% or whatever the equivalent is in England, etc are in marginals, that skews the outcome, and is the calculus that is driving the position..

but with a pro EU stance they would also have taken some of the 500 seats that went to lib dem and green.

I still don’t think you’ve answered the question of why if Rejoin is such a vote winner, why not the reverse – why didn’t LD and Green get all 1000 and more?

I did correct the “more than”  apologies

I think lib dems and greens taking half the tory losses on a pro EU stance shows that very well.  I believe / its my opinion that a pro EU labour would have taken 700+

You do not believe the very strong showing of the pro EU parties with shows anything – I do.  along with the polling which shows pyublic opinion on brexit is shifting strongly and quickly towrds rejoin.

Even that poll daffy put up in defense of his stance shows pro EU as being the strongest position in winning votes even if its a pretty even split –

Its all interpretation and opinions

“Once again – I think living in Scotland with a huge pro EU majority and Plenty of Pro EU parties to vote for gives a very differnt perspective

Up here labours EU stance is a clear vote loser”

That’s a fairly good point. But my perhaps rather simple deduction would be that the analysis behind Starmers stance suggests any lost seats in scotland would be more than balanced by gains elsewhere? I.e the gains from flipping blue to red more than offset yellow not flipping red.

I will not vote for a party that supports Brexit.  thats a red line for me

sometimes you’ve got to pick a side, when you don’t the Tories benefit.

There’s a difference between a hypothetical ‘Brexit was a bad idea’ or ‘rejoining would be good’; and ‘I want to start a massive political cockfight right now that will consume everything’

I will not vote for a party that supports Brexit.  thats a red line for me

I will vote however I need to get the tories out. Right now, that is the political vacuum of LD, but they’ve got the only chance in my area.

yes nickc – an I will probably pick a pro EU party knowing full well that they will never support the tories

In my constituency tories have no chance.    Its probably going to be a labour / SNP marginal but could end up 3 way with the greens

NO matter who I vote for it will not be a tory seat and neither the SNP or greens will support a tory government.  so in my seat it makes no difference to the likelihood of a tory government

If it was a tory / labour marginal then I might have to hold my nose to vote labour.  But its not

Jonv –  ( from Daffys link) its those 37% of voters that are more likely to vote for a rejoin party that I believe Starmer is in danger of losing their votes. to lib dems, green and SNP and that could lose him the majority.  I believe with the right campaign that will not put off those 36% who want to concentrate on other issues – they are unlikely to shift their vote from labour to tory

Again – opinions and interpretation and as above I think living here gives a different view because we have pro rejoin parties to vote for

Some things are facts.

Both labour and conservatives are anti EU. They literally say so.

Neither will get my vote in the next GE or any local election on that basis alone.

‘I want to start a massive political cockfight right now that will consume everything’

Its going to happen anyway in the campaign where the pro EU parties will be given fair media coverage.  Starmer is going to have to argue one side or the other.  If he continues his pro brexit stance he will also be arguing against public opinion.

Brexit is going to be an issue at the next election even if both labour and tories want to try to ignore it.  the pro EU parties will make sure of that.

Both labour and conservatives are anti EU. They literally say so.

That’s a massive leap. I guarantee that most of the people in those parties aren’t “anti” EU, but they have to say what people want to hear in order to get votes. That’s the whole concept of democracy.

I believe Starmer is in danger of losing their votes

Of course, they will be monitoring the situation and will probably adjust their rhetoric. Probably one reason for floating it now is to test the water and see what the response is where it matters.

These things aren’t just dreamed up in the pub one night, they employ teams of people whose job it is to analyse everything all the time.

I think one of the issues here is living in Scotland that is much more pro EU and has political leaders that call out brexit as the disaster it is alters the view.  In England ( dunno about wales) you do not have political leaders doing this.  

This isn’t true, though. Scotland is not some magic exception. Despite the repeated nationalist and provincial moaning that the UK is ruled by London, London overwhelmingly voted against Brexit. There are political leaders in England calling out Brexit as a disaster. The fact that you haven’t heard of them or are not interested in them is a different topic.

https://www.london.gov.uk/mayor-calls-end-vow-silence-brexit
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028.amp#cobssid=s
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-06/some-brexiteers-will-admit-eu-exit-has-been-a-disaster-amber-rudd#xj4y7vzkg

Fair enough .  However its not really the same as having a pro eu government

There are political leaders in England calling out Brexit as a disaster.

Not sure that your interpretation of “political leaders” is the same as mine. That looks like some political fringe figures calling out Brexit as a disaster. The leadership (Labour and Tory) seems fully in favour.

Note also two contradictory approaches to calling out Brexit as a disaster. You can either say that it was a stupid idea badly done that’s inevitably going to be harmful, or you can say that the current Brexit is a disaster because it’s not been done hard enough yet. The latter doesn’t help.

That looks like some political fringe figures calling out Brexit as a disaster. 

The population of London is 50% larger than that of Scotland. Its economy is twice the size of Scotland’s. Five times more EU citizens live in London than in Scotland.

Khan is not a fringe figure in British politics – although I can see why some Scottish nationalists would object to him.

A country is not the same as a city.  Somewhat patronising policecameraaction

Again – you cannot fix the ship properly without reversing brexit

Yeah, yeah… we know

2 problems…

1. Getting a majority of the UK electorate to vote for reversing Brexit (including freedom of movement -EEK!) – good luck with that

2. The actual process of reversing Brexit – good luck with that too. Hope you’re not busy with owt else to do for the next 20 or 30 years

Other than those 2 issues, I’m sure it’ll all be peachy ****ing creamy. It’ll be just like we never left

1. Getting a majority of the UK electorate to vote for reversing Brexit (including freedom of movement -EEK!) – good luck with that

the majority are in favour – and with some leadership……………;.

the majority are in favour – and with some leadership……………;.

No, the majority isn’t. As per the link I posted before, it’s close to 50% but not quite and potentially topping out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_United_Kingdom_rejoining_the_European_Union_(2020%E2%80%93present)

– and it’s not about the majority, it’s about what the key marginals think

the majority are in favour

Sounds very familiar, that

If only I could remember where I’d heard such unwavering certainty voiced so confidently before

Hmmmmmmmm….. when was it….?

Oh… oh…. I REMEMBER NOW… May 2016!

Do I win a prize? I know that Bullseye used to hand out speedboats, but when it comes to things I’ve no room or use for I’ve always quite fancied a shepherds hut

Ok – now imagine political leadership saying ” its a disaster it needs to be reversed” how much will that add to the polling – and take out the don’t knows and its a clear majority 🙂

Do I win a prize?

No – you will bankrupt me with your Greggs habit 🙂