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If this proves to be true, which we should know by the end of the month, I think it’s very good indicator that a no-deal is pretty much nailed on.
Its been glaringly obvious for quite some time that No Deal is the only outcome they've ever wanted. They need the ensuring financial chaos to restructure our society into the Ayn Rand style, deregulated, tax haven Fantasy Island.
Incredibly, they're so unhinged that instead of viewing what's happening at the moment as a reason to maybe pause and take stock of the new economic reality, they're determined to do the opposite. They see this whole crisis as an opportunity, no matter what the final death toll is
mdavids - the UK market is not big enough to sustain them and we will have NO trade deals if its no deal. The trade deals we have now are as part of the EU. Leave the EU with no deal none of them apply
Intellectual colossus and Mr Self-awareness, David Davis, is presently on Radio 4 mansplaining the philosophy/myth that as we get to 11th hour the EU will cave and give us the best trade deal ever! With full access to EU markets but we won't have to pay anything in, as well as having separate trade deals with other countries, unconstrained by EU standards or rules
Cakism is alive and well and still guiding the UK policy to this whole thing.
We really are truly ****ed!
They are straining every sinew to ramp up capacity. Herculean effort. Following the science.
The article quoted doesn’t relate to the Customs staff but Agents who prepare the customs entry and then submit it to Customs, so in reality it’s a double shambles- no private industry to make declarations no HMRC to deal with entries. Blue passports though.
Which right hand drive markets were you thinking of @mdavids ? I can see models for the entire group being produced here (for a short time at least) for UK market… but I can’t see exports being a major part of that plan.
You’re rich enough to sort your non-UK passport, but haven’t yet? What are you waiting for…? Pay to keep your rights… it’s only the plebs that we’re stripping of theirs…
https://twitter.com/edwardjdavey/status/1218079546236440576?s=21
the UK market is not big enough to sustain
Based on recent available figures you're wrong. Right hand drive sales alone for Nissan and Renault would be enough to keep the plant viable, its probably about 200'000. Plus any car built in the UK would be instantly 10% cheaper than anything imported giving them a large price advantage over their competitors.
Rest of World non-EU volumes are only a small percentage of their build and are a nice-to-have rather than essential so if trade deals with those countries couldn't be carried over straight away this wouldn't make the plant non-viable.
In the event of a no-deal, the current situation for Nissan is that their entire Europe operation becomes non-viable, not just UK. So they either shut up shop completely in Europe or adapt and at least keep some sales.
Renault really don't want the UK to build their models, unless they really had to. Being able to build and sell them 10% cheaper than importing them is a rather large incentive. If the stories turn out to be true, for me that indicates the industry is betting on a no deal and preparing accordingly.
I guess we'll find out at the end of the month.
Intellectual colossus and Mr Self-awareness, David Davis, is presently on Radio 4 mansplaining the philosophy/myth that as we get to 11th hour the EU will cave and give us the best trade deal ever! With full access to EU markets but we won’t have to pay anything in, as well as having separate trade deals with other countries, unconstrained by EU standards or rules
Cakism is alive and well and still guiding the UK policy to this whole thing.
We really are truly ****ed!
The main thing I took away from his 'interview' was that he sounded like he was pissed.
I always just assumed, from the way he sounded, that David Davis was permanently pissed.
Then I thought that maybe he wasn't and he just sounds like it because he's a simpleton.
Now I just think it's both
Blue passports though.
My passport expired so needed to renew, the new British passport arrived and looks black unless it catches some light just right
Mdavids
Why will cars be cheaper built here? They will be paying tariffs on the parts imported
European Nissan plants will be almost unaffected
There will be no export market for Nissan uk
Why will cars be cheaper built here? They will be paying tariffs on the parts imported
Did you not listen to David Davis this morning TJ? There aren't going to be any tariffs. The EU are going to cave in at the last minute, in the face of plucky English negotiating skill and give us the best tariff-free trade deal ever, because... erm... BMW's and Prosseco, or something
While we clap for carers, and Prince Charles backs the “PICK FOR BRITAIN’ campaign, we are supposed to be thanking the government for punishing those who come here to work in the care system and work on our farms. Depressing stuff.
Mdavids
Why will cars be cheaper built here? They will be paying tariffs on the parts importedEuropean Nissan plants will be almost unaffected
There will be no export market for Nissan uk
Reverting to WTO rules will add 10% to the sale cost of all cars coming in and going out of the country. A Renault or Nissan thats built and then sold here will not face that tariff therefore 10% cheaper than an imported one, and 10% cheaper than their competitors.
Imported automotive parts are different and can be left tariff free if the government desires, see below link:
Link
There are also a lot of UK parts suppliers and a big drive to bring in more, also many parts coming from China, Japan etc.
Nissan Barcelona is barely viable as it is and the reports are suggesting this will be closed with their models going into Renault plants, allowing Renault models to then shift to UK.
You're right, there won't be an EU export market, thats the point I'm making, but it won't be needed as the majority of vehicles will be sold in the UK with a small percentage going to non-EU markets
.
And there is zero chance of eu manufacturers allowing parts to flow into the UK
Nissan has said the plant is not viable after brexit
And there is zero chance of eu manufacturers allowing parts to flow into the UK
EH?? If a supplier wants to sell parts to the UK why wouldn't they? It's extra business, and it's up to the UK whether to add import tariffs to those parts, and according to that link there won't be tariffs on these goods
Nissan has said the plant is not viable after brexit
In it's current form yes. The addition of Renault volume makes it viable.
If it's a choice as you say of parts into UK or the eu plant remaining viable?
Are Renault not still partly state Owned?
Also from your link eu can put export tariffs in place
I think you are hopelessly optimistic
If it’s a choice as you say of parts into UK or the eu plant remaining viable?
With or without Brexit, Barcelona has problems.
Are Renault not still partly state Owned?
Yes. And heavily unionised and very protective. Which is why if the reports are true and they allow models to come to the UK it suggests a no-deal is inevitable - they can sell Renaults in the UK cheaper than their competitors.
Also from your link eu can put export tariffs in place
Export tariffs on what? The point I'm making is the vast majority vehicles would be for the UK market, they wouldn't be exported to the EU. Renault plants in the EU would build the same models but just for the EU.
I think you are hopelessly optimistic
I'm passing on what various papers have reported, and suggesting if this is true it's a good indication that Renault and Nissan know a no-deal is inevitable and are taking measures to get a jump on their competitors.
If manufacturers pass on the 10% to the customer, as most will, buying a UK built car will save you a lot of money.
Renault and Nissan know a no-deal is inevitable and are taking measures to get a jump on their competitors
Every company should be acting is no-deal is happening, whatever they “know”… waiting for the outcome of negotiations if an extension is ruled out is not any option… the timeline just doesn’t work if you have plants and production to plan for.
Every company should be acting is no-deal is happening
I agree, but knowing about it and actually being able to do something that mitigates the damage are 2 different things.
As Nissan have publicly stated, no-deal will destroy their Europe operation completely. However building cars in the UK for the UK might be viable providing the volume is there.
The majority of EU manufacturers will just stick 10% on to the cost of car for UK customers as there just isn't the profit margin not to.
Eu can put export tariffs on the parts that Nissan import from the eu
Most of the value of the cars is it not?
might be viable providing the volume is there
Let's hope nothing happens that craters our economy even harder than Brexit and pulls the rug out from under the car lease market. Fingers crossed.
Eu can put export tariffs on the parts that Nissan import from the eu
I'll be honest I don't know if they could, my understanding is tariffs are generally levied at the point of import by the country doing the importing.
I'd suggest it would be completely ridiculous for them to do so, they'd be deliberately making their own companies un-competitive, there are many other automotive suppliers all over the world who would happily take that business off them.
Most of the value of the cars is it not?
Surprisingly not
It doesn't matter if the car built here is cheaper, if your unemployed and bankrupt, you still won't be able to afford one 😁
I thought to mark our triumphant escape from our continental oppressor we were going to relaunch the glory days of the British car industry?
Why would renault france partly state owned and heavily unionised allow a plant in the UK to get a competative advantage? ~The answer is they will not and given how easy it is to fire staff here compared to the EU its far better for them to shut the UK plant
The pcps will just have longer terms, people like their German Kubelwagens.
Don’t forget they were promised all sorts of sweeteners in the May days, wring some more money out of a desperate government and walk away later if it’s not enough.
The Covid money tree can carry on shaking if required.
Why would renault france partly state owned and heavily unionised allow a plant in the UK to get a competative advantage? ~The answer is they will not and given how easy it is to fire staff here compared to the EU its far better for them to shut the UK plant
I'll try and explain it as simply as I can.
Using some very basic simplified figures, post brexit, if there's no-deal, A Renault built in the EU and sold in the UK that currently costs £20000 will cost £22000. If they build it in the UK it will only cost £20000. Thats a huge amount of extra profit. 100'000 vehicles at an extra £2000 = £200'000'000
They aren't losing volume because they are still building for non-UK markets and Nissan would shift volume from their closed Barcelona plant to Renault, plus if they just kept importing to the UK they'd likey see a massive drop in RH drive sales as customers would be unwilling to pay the extra 10%, plus if they are cheaper than their competitors they would likely see an increase in sales.
It would make sense for both companies, especially when neither company is doing particularly well at the moment
I just googled "export tariffs" and the first response tells me that they are levied to encourage domestic consumption of domestically produced goods (and therefore discourage the export). It also tells me they are less rare than import tariffs...
mdavids its makes no sense for renault EU to do that tho. Thats the problem. They would rather have the barcelona plant open as closing that will cost a lot. Same for the unions. There is literally no upside for them to transfer production to the UK
There is literally no upside for them to transfer production to the UK
There literally is, cold hard cash.
Also the UK plant is an order of magnitude bigger than Barcelona, capable of pumping out half a million vehicles a year, and are already building the Nissan equivalent of the Renault models so very little investment would be needed.
Whatever happens with Barcelona is a decision for Nissan Japan, not Renault.
Bored now, I'm not making this up, the stories are out there, just google it. They might not to be true, I'm just giving you an insight and suggesting a few reasons why they could be true, and if they are true why this is a likely indicator of a no-deal.
I think point most miss when talking about cars is that the majority of buyers will just suck up the 10%. Doubt you'll even see it as the various promotions will become less generous to cover the cost.
If I wanted a 20k Ford Focus and it suddlenly jumped up 2k that wouldn't make me buy a 20k Renault that I didn't want in the first place, even less so if talking about 12/15k Fiesta/Micra. If every 60k BMW/Merc/Audi bumped up 6k what are the buyers going to turn to? My bet is they'll just not spec the 3k ICE or the like.
The car manufacturers are past masters at hiding price rises or convincing people they're getting a great deal so I really can't see much changing. The fact the economy is going to be borked will be the problem.
@mdavids you’re going to have to explain your numbers here.
I’ll try and explain it as simply as I can.
Using some very basic simplified figures, post brexit, if there’s no-deal, A Renault built in the EU and sold in the UK that currently costs £20000 will cost £22000. If they build it in the UK it will only cost £20000. Thats a huge amount of extra profit. 100’000 vehicles at an extra £2000 = £200’000’000
Are you saying the car will be 10% more expensive no matter where it is made, but that the manufacturer can hoover up an extra 10% profit per car?
If you are saying they’ll sell the UK made car at the original price then there’s no extra money in it for them and export tariffs may well make it less profitable, not more.
The Nissan renault group make about 3.5 times as many cars in Sunderland as they sell in the UK. Most of them go to Europe.
Modern car factory's can't just swap between models easily, it costs hundreds of millions to tool them up for each specific model. They can't just make the whole Nissan and Renault range at Sunderland for right hand drive markets, it's a cloud cuckoo land fantasy.
No deal means WTO rules on cars, meaning cars imported into the UK will have a 10% tariff added, and cars exported from the UK to the EU will have 10% added. Either the manufacturer absorbs this and accepts £2k (approx figure) less profit per car. Or increases the cost to the customer by £2k.
Rather than Renault importing into the UK they'd build cars here for the UK and continue to build in their own plants for the EU domestic market. Not all models, just Kadjar and Captur, which share a chassis with the current Nissan Qashqai and Juke and already share parts, so there's very little extra tooling required.
Although the Nissan UK volume would reduce from its current levels, it remains viable by having Renault's UK volume added.
I thought Juke sales were catastrophic and the Captur has embarrassing environmental credentials. They are old platforms which will need replacing with the investments that implies. The commitment to Sunderland seems low according to those stated objectives - no mention fo the Leaf which is the most promising Sunderland product.
Within the Renault-Nissan group Sunderland isn't a source of cheap cars compared with Roumania which saves 200e per Clio compared with France or Spain IIRC. 10% WTO is on complete cars, components are at 4.5% which means parts from Turkey and other low cost factories can still be attractive.
I thought Juke sales were catastrophic and the Captur has embarrassing environmental credentials. They are old platforms which will need replacing with the investments that implies
Both are now on the latest platform with new engines. Corona has stuck a large stick in the spokes so its hard to say if sales of the new Juke were going well.
The commitment to Sunderland seems low according to those stated objectives – no mention fo the Leaf which is the most promising Sunderland product.
They've been all about the crossover models for many years now. Leaf is a bit of a brand ambassador with token volumes. Electrification of existing models negate the need for it.
Within the Renault-Nissan group Sunderland isn’t a source of cheap cars compared with Roumania which saves 200e per Clio compared with France or Spain IIR
There's just no profit building that segment of car in higher cost countries, crossovers don't cost that much more to build but command much higher selling prices and therefore profits
Three good replies, mdavids.
The problem I see with the Juke is that it's not a hybrid and I think there will be more and more incentives in more and more countries to at least go hybrid. The Quashquai suffers the same problem though there was a report of Europe 1 recently about that platform going hybrid under pressure from the government.
Renault-Nissan made the choice of either 100% electrics or diesels and the demand is going to be bent towards hybrids. The both need to react quickly.
The problem I see with the Juke is that it’s not a hybrid and I think there will be more and more incentives in more and more countries to at least go hybrid. The Quashquai suffers the same problem though there was a report of Europe 1 recently about that platform going hybrid under pressure from the government.
There are hybrid versions of various flavours on the way. Nissan now own a controlling stake in Mitsubishi and will be using their Plug-in hybrid tech as well as tech of their own and Renaults.
Manufacturers now have no choice but to electrify their line up in order to meet increasingly stringent corporate average fuel consumption rules
If I was a car maker I’d offer ‘good news’ for the government whilst cashing their cheques and awaiting further and future considerations 🙂
I’m sure the Nissan producing cars here has been circulating for months and they refuse To acknowledge it, they’ll have loads of scenarios thou as that’s what companies do, plan and prepare.
And as usual, once the 'yay Sunderland is staying and cutting shifts, told you Brexit would be a success' noise has settled down, we get to the bottom line:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-52900528
Let's also revisit the 'Brexit will allow us to take more tech tax because the EU rules stop us from reforming' tale of yore. Looks like America has other ideas *sad trombone sound*
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1267950605068369920
I get a feeling this isn't going to go as well as has been claimed lads. Just a feeling though.
As has always been clear.. Nissan Sunderland is not viable under no deal.
We're so ****ed
No tweeting about this from Andrew Neil who has been loudly trumpeting any positive noises from Nissan about UK factories?
No tweeting about this from Andrew Neil
Apparently it's fine because reasons (the replies on this are something).
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1268207305369300992
Nissan leaving is the least of our worries. Construction is ****ed, I'd say at least 50% of planned projects won't even start this year and ongoing sites (those that have restarted) are working on a massively reduced workforce
I was relatively confident that I'd be back to work but now I'm leaning towards getting made redundant the minute employer furlough contributions kick in
Everyone I know in construction is busier than ever, and future projects not on hold. Where in the UK are you?
London. All our big projects (tower/multi blocks of flats) are running at either 50% or less workforce or not at all
Construction was in recession way before Corona was even heard of and you can add to that a shortage of bricks and plaster
Everyone I know in construction is busier than ever, and future projects not on hold. Where in the UK are you?
Erm, you do know that social distancing limits site operative #’s to a fraction of pre covid one way systems in operation and that welfare facilities need to be massively increased (plus one trade at time). That, and the PPE, will significantly increase the cost of construction. Are the supply chains back up?
Plus local authority budgets are you know, and I’ll use a technical term, completely ****ed...
Plus, contract law if there’s a second spike? Who will pay for it, client or contractor?
It will have a significant effect... and none of it positive
The morality-free Brexit loons, led by Dom and Dommer actually see Covid as an opportunity to shift the blame for the economic devastation of a no deal Brexit.
They’re absolutely unhinged!
My Irony-meter almost broke today reading an exchange between people I know on Facebook. The initial message was a moan about the Welsh lock down rules..
"This isn't a dig against anybody in particular except the government.
I can go and see family within 5"ish" miles and I interact with people at work etc applying the social distancing rules where possible. England can pretty much travel everywhere except into Wales yet I can't go over to visit my daughter in the Midlands.
Very frustrated"
Fair enough. But in wades a lad who is the biggest fan of Brexit out of anyone I know with
"I feel your pain. This is what you get with a devolved parliament. Rather than fight this united together, you have devolved parliaments doing their own thing to prove they are worthwhile."
You couldn't make it up.
Erm, you do know that social distancing limits site operative #’s to a fraction of pre covid one way systems in operation and that welfare facilities need to be massively increased (plus one trade at time). That, and the PPE, will significantly increase the cost of construction. Are the supply chains back up?
Correct, The site I was on pre lockdown has a canteen that could hold 120+ people, its now 24 as its one person to a table with no microwaves or fridges, middle toilets/urinals blocked off etc etc
Contracts are also being renegotiated due to completion times/over hire penalties
As I said before there was a shortage of bricks pre lockdown its even worse now
@mehr: exactly, I know that contracts are being delayed as who will bear the additional costs (and the ‘failure’ to meet the programme dates). The prelims costs alone must have at least doubled (if not trebled) as a result of Covid mitigation measures.
I’ll have some of whatever Kelvins mates are tooting (most main contractors are still heavily furloughed here, Scotland). 😷🤪😁
Fair enough. But in wades a lad who is the biggest fan of Brexit out of anyone I know with
“I feel your pain. This is what you get with a devolved parliament. Rather than fight this united together, you have devolved parliaments doing their own thing to prove they are worthwhile.”
You couldn’t make it up.
'Big fan' of Brexit in 'shit for brains shocker'?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/03/britain-ready-allow-import-chlorinated-chicken-us/
Hormone-fed beef, chlorinated chicken and other foods that use techniques banned in Britain will be allowed across the Atlantic, but ministers want to use tariffs to make it uneconomical for US producers to export them to the UK.
That's simply impossible Kelvin
Lots of brexiteers promised it would never happen
https://amp.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/chlorinated-chicken-not-sold-in-uk-michael-gove
Wrong again, or lying again?
metalheart - I have a network of construction contacts across the UK covering T1 contractors, subbies and suppliers; everyone I talk with confirms your view.
kelvin is in a minority of 1 with his view.
Infrastructure construction is largely unchanged; most of the rest of construction is on it's arse.
Parts of the resi sector have re-opened but all they're doing is building properties for a market which is disappearing in front of their eyes.
The construction sector is trying, unsuccessfully, to talk up the market.
Very odd. As I said, everyone I know is busy right now, and saying that near term projects still going ahead, and lots to catch up with. Shares prices in the industry suggest that’s not just a Yorkshire thing either. Not sure about residential demand being truly damaged either. Prices may be lower for a short while for houses hitting the market right now, but few people expect that not to pick up for builds to be released later this year once restrictions are further relaxed and the public return to planning the moves they have had on hold.
None of that relates to Brexit though.
Next year could be a whole world of pain.
Anyway… we need the farmers in this thread right now… step one of the Brexitiers screwing them has occurred precisely as predicted…
It will be a long time before I consider buying shares in any UK construction company.
Share prices generally have now lost contact with reality; we've been here before.
As furlough support unwinds we'll see a significant spike in unemployment; that will have a direct and immediate impact on the housing sector.
The simplistic measure of commercial construction activity is how many tower cranes are still operating.
There will be an over-supply of office accommodation as WFH becomes more established and redundancies happen; planned new developments will either be deferred or canned; partially built developments will either be completed or moth-balled - if completed, where are the clients?
Commercial rents will be forced down.
We're just in the early days; much pain to come.
https://twitter.com/RMcGreevy1301/status/1268657169911746564?s=20
I'm betting that by this time next year they won't have the option to quit, or they'll have their benefits stopped. And there's going to be an awful lot more people on benefits. We'll all be picking fruit and living in a caravan in Norfolk
Looks like that while everyone is distracted, Cummings is continuing to go through the motions of 'negotiations' while really just counting down the days to the deadline for extending the withdrawal agreement to pass, and then its a No Deal Brexit to look forward too for us all, with the economic carnage that will entail, on top of the Covid destruction.
Brexit was always madness, a No-Deal ridiculously damaging, but to plough on with it on top of the chaos in the economy brought by Covid is just out and out insanity!
Christ only knows what state this country is going to be in this time next year with these lunatics in charge
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1268863366501720064?s=20
The only trade deal they are interested in is a USA one… this has always been the case.
I agree Binners, it is utter madness and the lying bellends we have running the country will continue to blame the EU for a no-deal Brexit (even though that is what they have been foaming at the mouth for from the start).
It's OK, the grown-ups will be here in a moment to sort this out.
Who'd have thought a no-deal Brexit wouldn't be the shit sandwich, but just the cherry on top?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52934128
Oh, the easiest deal in history is a) really difficult and b) compounded by the fact that we're led by total lying idiots.
Still, I look forward to my chlorinated chicken and then paying a fortune to go to hospital thanks to the newly privatised / insured American style healthcare system.
So this transition/implementation period that ends in less than seven months… hands up if know you what your company is transitioning to and the changes it needs to be implementing…?
Great, another milestone to celebrate.
hands up if know you what your company is transitioning to and the changes it needs to be implementing…?
We ploughed an enormous amount of time and effort into expensive, messy workarounds and unsatisfactory bodges so we could continue servicing customers as best as we could in the even of no deal last year. So that again, but with a bit more time to iron out the worst of the grey areas. It'll work, but it'll be messy, expensive and unsatisfactory, with no upsides at all to the current arrangements with freedom of services.
We did a huge amount of work for the original date and it was briefed to us but it was so long ago I have forgotten most of it!
We expanded an office in Dublin from 100 to 1000 people and sent £166 billion of capital...
hands up if know you what your company is transitioning to and the changes it needs to be implementing…?
My employer is global and does a lot of R&D in the UK, so I imagine they're looking forward to being able to slash those costs and keep the skills in what might end up a low value economy.
can't see a link?
Don't forget that we are going to "take back control" so everything will be fine and dandy!
I assumed that the lack of the link was because the article doesn't actally exist.