Brexit 2020+

For context there: mainland Europe (Dover <-> Calais) is 20 miles away, Australia is 10,000.

Plus Australia’s largest exports are coal, iron ore and racism. And we’re pretty good for all those things already.

The majority of our export trade is services, not goods, as far as I’m aware.

So almost everything we give to the EU in terms of trade can be done by the members left inside the bloc? So where are they going to find that political ace to force a good deal from then?

They say satire is dead but it isn’t, it’s sat on the sidelines looking on in bewilderment at how reality has completely Top Trumped anything it could have thought of.

Sod it, in for a penny…..

Consider cars. Pre-1980s if you bought a British car you were truly getting a bespoke item. Yes, there were production lines, obviously, but on any given day the wing mirror polishers might be out on strike for a 50% pay rise or Dave The Painter left yesterday so the whole paint department went out on the piss and can’t stand up straight. As soon as reasonable quality foreign imports, particularly those made using JIT principles, became available the British made car was shown up for the shoddy overpriced crap that it was.

British Leyland sold the Mini at a loss accidentally to start with, because (surprise, surprise) it wasn’t just the actual manufacturing that was shoddy, so was the accounting.

So, we beg and bribe Japanese car manufacturers to come to the UK to replace the old shambles.

They insist that we have to put lots of stuff in place so their JIT processes can work. The ‘warehouse’ at your standard Japanese car plant is about the size of a medium office floor. Basically non-existent because nothing is allowed to stand still ‘waiting for something else to arrive’ or whatever.

So, the JIT philosophy works well. Then some prat comes along and messes with a part or parts of that supply chain. Creating the need for import checks where there previously weren’t any for example. Now your Japanese car manufacturer’s ENTIRE business model is screwed. The model is so lean, so tight, that any disruption is extremely damaging. So they say “thanks very much for the tax breaks for last thirty years, but we’re off now”. Short of state seizing of plant and machinery (which I think even the Tories would wince at), there is bugger all that can be done.

One other side rant about trade having other impacts beyond the immediately obvious. Consider the example of Rolls Royce exporting the Nene jet engine to the Soviets in the late 40s. The Americans had basically won the war in the west for us, but they then sent us the bill. After very nearly bankrupting the UK they did agree to lend us half of what was deemed essential. The last of that was paid off in 2006, incidentally. So, the country is on its knees, rationing, the freezing winter of 1946-7 etc. Stalin jokes that there is no way the Brits will sell him any of their Crown Jewels (jet engine tech at this time being one of the few), but he asks for a laugh…..

And Rolls Royce end up selling some to the Russians. Bad enough from the US point of view. It gets a lot worse, though, when the Russian reverse engineer the tech and stick the resulting engines in their Mig 15s. These then show up over Korea where they start blasting US planes and their pilots out of the sky.

The point is that this stuff did not exist in a vacuum back in the 1940s. Nowadays any retrograde step in cooperation with any trading partner is likely to have effects that no one can foresee.

Bollocks to Brexit.

Consider cars. Pre-1980s if you bought a British car you were truly getting a bespoke item.

… like the Allegro.

Yet another elephant in the room. “Buy British” is a laudable aim, but when not viewed through pineapple-ringed spectacles a lot of what we produced was shit.

(And we don’t even produce shit any more, often we replaced that with “nothing at all.”)

Well, I had a long day at work and a wind-down rant or two can be quite cathartic.

The point of all my ramblings above is that this stuff is really complicated and there is no escaping it.

You can never model all of the possible permutations, sure, but even that points back to the sheer stupidity of disrupting it for no good reason.

Add to this the fact that our PM (talk about devaluing a great office of state, my god) has a reputation for being intolerant of detail, broad-brush, crass, pompous and untrustworthy and you can see why I get so bloody annoyed by all this. The other occupiers of the offices of state also seem to be cut from a similar cloth.

Soundbites do not compensate for knowing what you are doing. Not when reality comes along and upsets the apple cart.

Sure, we have experts in the Civil Service but they will not get any proper direction from the top and if they try to prepare for reality they will get a bollocking for being pessimistic and unpatriotic. The fact that the arch arsehole Cummings wants to lay waste to them will not help either. Any sane person would be looking for a change of job. I am sure many private companies will pay handsomely for someone with the inside track of what goes on and the experience of dealing with it. As with everything to do with Brexit, the actual outcome is the opposite of what any sane person would want. The reverse Midas Touch where everything turns to shit.

Bollocks to Brexit.

The Canadian opinion…

For context there: mainland Europe is 700 miles away, Australia is 10,000.

Probably further if you are shipping by carbon neutral Tea Clipper.

But racism and anti-immigration aren’t quite the same.

Racism is just a tool used to shut white people up while their countries are destroyed. Not unlike the antisemitism charge for critisism of Isreal.

Destroyed how?

Ryanair have just released their qualifying criteria for their recruitment drive in Manchester – applicants MUST have full rights of freedom of movement and freedom to work anywhere in the EU…

…bearing in mind that in the event of a BJ no-deal at the end of the year, GB planes will be permitted to fly to and from EU destinations but not between EU destinations (and similarly with the haulage industry). Allegedly.

…bearing in mind that in the event of a BJ no-deal at the end of the year, GB planes will be permitted to fly to and from EU destinations but not between EU destinations (and similarly with the haulage industry). Allegedly.

Well when your not at the table they can
sort of make rules up you may not like 🙁

It’ll all be weaponised by the gov as a valid reason they go Aussie rules (the new name for no deal) and why the US deal is so great.

A lot of lidl/Aldi fruit and veg comes from where my PIL’s live in Spain, their friend from over here drives a truck that brings it back, even with tariffs and extra costs under Aussie terms that’s still got to be cheaper and quicker than a refrigerated container doing 10,000 miles.
(And that’s without even mentioning the climate change ethics)

A twiddle on the spec and/or longer term pcp’s and the bm’s and Audi’s will still flow into the country.

I’m really not sure he’s worried about a trade deal with the EU.

He was willing to chance it last year when he had no majority and have to go thru with an election so I see no reason why he’d be that worried now he’s got 5 years and a massive majority.

If they make him an offer he can’t refuse he may take it but don’t forget

UK commitment to the Customs Union and Single Market would make a UK-U.S. FTA a non-starter

we segued effortlessly from a story about part of our ‘national salvation’ coming from shipping goods literally half way around the world to a story about cutting carbon emissions to zero.

Ahh You only have to say about cutting carbon emissions,you don’t have to go thru with it.

If anyone says different then just sack em,it’s really easy the sound bites gotta be put out there thou way more important than the actual doing stuff.

Ryanair is Irish, and given the number of Mancunians of Irish descent I think they might be looking for Irish passport holders or people who can apply for an Irish passport, which is also anyone from NI.

Soundbites do not compensate for knowing what you are doing. Not when reality comes along and upsets the apple cart.

What this utter shambles has also illustrated, in total contrast, is the quiet, efficient, hubris-free competence in which the EU has gone about it’s business.

I’m sure the irony of that is completely lost on the Brexiteers

Is anyone else getting this thread not going to the last page?
There’s 13 pages, but on the main chat forum screen it’s only showing 12. And if you hit the link displaying when it was last updated (2 minutes ago etc), it takes you to page 12, not page13…

Other threads take you to the most recent thread on the last page of that thread.

Its remainer bias 😉

@stumpy01 – me too. I have been getting this for a week or so (not just this thread)

I think it’s something to do with deleted posts not being recognised somewhere…

Is it coincidence that BJ decides to mention a Japan deal and highlight the UK’s commitment to electric vehicles when Nissan, maker of one of the best selling electric vehicles, are making noises?

Much as I like the idea of the Nissan Leaf (or Micra) becoming “The People’s Car” for new Free Democratic Republic of the Goodish Britain, I have my doubts.

Other non-FT coverage I read seemed a lot less optimistic and had a lot more caveats and guard terms in there.

Examples from The Gruaniad:

The contingency plan is said to be one of several drawn up in preparation for post-Brexit tariffs and was drafted before Makoto Uchida…
…Nissan denied having made such a plan, however, and said its Sunderland plant would be under threat along with its European operations if the UK fails to ensure tariff-free access to the EU market.
..A Nissan spokesman said on Monday: “We deny such a contingency plan exists. We’ve modelled every possible ramification of Brexit and the fact remains that our entire business both in the UK and in Europe is not sustainable in the event of WTO [World Trade Organization] tariffs.”

..David Bailey, the professor of industrial strategy at Aston Business School, said ..
“It’s one possible response to the hard Brexit scenario but I don’t think it’s a feasible plan.”

Bailey said it was unlikely Nissan could gain the 20% market share cited as a key requirement for the Japanese carmaker to gamble on focusing its efforts in the UK.

All I think I can take from the Nissan coverage is that lots of people seem to be playing games by briefing/leaking one way, then denying but still having seen what the reaction might be.

Ah, politics on the Trumpian model, it all about the deal.

Looks like the nasty EU is punishing us again.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/02/05/galileo_uk_clause

Wonder how many leavers would consider their satnav stopping working as a “price worth paying” to just leave?

Having to navigate with a tattered A-Z would seem suitably fitting.

It would also provide a boom to map makers and a return to the glory days of UK driving holidays where coaches used to stop at local pubs and coach houses for a leg stretch.

Wonder how many leavers would consider their satnav stopping working as a “price worth paying” to just leave?

have you even read the article you linked to? 😂 cos that is not wot it sez

It would also provide a boom to map makers and a return to the glory days of UK driving holidays where coaches used to stop at local pubs and coach houses for a leg stretch.

sadly the Roman Galley (near me) as made famous in OF&H day out to Margate is long gone 😭

Turns out my van insurers won’t now let me drive to europe on work business. they’ve decided that they require green cards to take vehicles to the EU now (their decision, internet is ambiguous as to how this applies pre/post transition period, but they’ve put their mark in the sand on this issue), however, they don’t insure vehicles using a green card for business use. therefore, i can’t take my van to the EU on work trips.

Handily, on Saturday I was due to drive to Madrid. And now need to quickly find a work-around on how I’m going to get there with my colleagues and our equipment (as well as change ferry bookings etc).

**** Brexit.

New green card rules don’t kick in ‘till after the transition period. Have you got a link to your insurers’ statement on this issue? Worth having a few people read it to see if it really does stop you doing what you say this year.

Needing dedicated insurance to take your work vehicle to the EU (and take professional equipment and have liability cover and medical cover) next year will very likely be a thing. Anything that goes wrong will be vastly more expensive and difficult for your insurer then, so it’s different cover to what we’ve been used to. Think about taking your van to Africa to do work now…

@hungry monkey

May be worth contacting this lot and seeing if you can insure your van in Spain for a short period.

https://www.libertyexpatriates.es/freedom-service-UK

Effectively your insure the van in Spain.

Does look odd that your existing company won’t cover it.

Even if there is a straightforward cock up or over zealous policy on the fly by hungry monkey’s insurer the question is:

How many more examples of this totally unnecessary confusion are going on right now? How many missed deliveries? Lost contracts? Bad will created?

It doesn’t really matter if the individual businesses are right or wrong, the confusion will lead to delays, lost business etc.

And for what?

Blue passports, **** brilliant.

We’re going to have to get used to all sorts of nonsense like this that we’ve just taken for granted before. ‘We’ just voted for a shit-load more needless bureaucracy and form-filling

Just wait until the gammons start getting hit with the huge roaming charges that the EU did away with, when they get back from Benidorm

We’ll never hear the end of it. None of it will be their own fault, obviously

Remainers rules for dealing with someone complaining about the effects of Brexit.

First ask if they voted to Leave.

If they answer ‘yes’, shrug shoulders and walk away.

If they answer ‘no’ ask them if they know anyone who did. If they answer yes, tell them to go and berate them.

If they answer ‘no’ then say something sympathetic….then shrug shoulders and walk away.

‘We’ just voted for a shit-load more needless bureaucracy and form-filling

I have mates who sincerely believed all the spin that “the EU is needless rules and bureaucracy” and are/were convinced that leaving will cut all this ‘red-tape’ away.

I’m pretty sure exactly the opposite thing will happen. And the more I hear about the UK not having to align with EU standards, the more I am convinced.

I have mates who sincerely believed all the spin that “the EU is needless rules and bureaucracy” and are/were convinced that leaving will cut all this ‘red-tape’ away.

I’m pretty sure exactly the opposite thing will happen. And the more I hear about the UK not having to align with EU standards, the more I am convinced.

+1

Of course in many instances the inconvenienced customer will say “Don’t worry, this uncertainty will soon pass and we will work something out”.

In many others, though, the customer will say “Never mind, we have made alternative arrangements and it turns out their service is almost as good as yours, so thanks for your cooperation over the last x years, but we are going to have to go our separate ways”.

Bollocks to Brexit.

Just wait until the gammons start getting hit with the huge roaming charges that the EU did away with, when they get back from Benidorm

On this at least, the major providers have all said they have no plans to reintroduce roaming charges. For now, anyway.

Importantly… from next year your supplier can be charged much more by the network you use when roaming… as that is the key cap that matters… if for marketing reasons your supplier spreads that cost over all the services they provide, rather than pass it on transparently in a roaming charge… well that’s all very wise PR on their part… but bills will go up.

On this at least, the major providers have all said they have no plans to reintroduce roaming charges. For now, anyway.

Well we haven’t really left yet So they can’t 🙂 but after we’re really out they’ll sneak the costs up, was always a great money maker roaming 🙂

Let’s be fair the european parliament isn’t going to be helping with getting a deal through at the moment.
I hate it but I suspect we will have a minimal bare bones agreement on keeping planes flying etc and then maybe a Canada style agreement after that.
by insisting on dynamic alignment and signing up to the fisheries agreement it feels like the government will just take the excuse of blaming it on the foreigners and go full tilt for no deal whatever the cost.

There’s got to be some upsides, even if it takes some time.

Trouble is I really can’t see the current govt being competent enough to steer policy suitably because it doesn’t look like they’re listening to anyone, especially the Civil Service.

There’s got to be some upsides, even if it takes some time.

There are indeed massive upsides!

If you’re a currency speculator, hedge fund manager, wanabee sweatshop owner or multinational tax dodger

For the rest of us…. not so much

it doesn’t look like they’re listening to anyone, especially the Civil Service.

Right from the off this hads been a far right neoliberal idealogical project, driven entirely by dogma. Trivial things like reality aren’t allowed to make any unwelcome appearences

Is it only French media reporting that there was strop off Guernsey earlier in the week as Brexit briefly stopped French boats fishing around Guernsey. I reckon we should just demand Guernsey and Jersey be handed over in exchange for something in the trade negotiations.

https://www.20minutes.fr/societe/2710899-20200204-brexit-pecheurs-francais-autorises-revenir-guernesey