Boris Johnson!

independent Scotland was inevitable.

Will never happen.

Would require delicate discussions and debate between mature and reasonable government. I have some degree of faith in Nichola Sturgeon in this respect, less in the SNP as a whole. Less said about the current Westminster lot the better, could you imagine Braverman, Hunt, Johnson etc. engaging in any sort of meaningful debate? They’d probably see a robust put down as red meat for the Daily Mail and the ERG types.

Interesting article on Conservative Home website by Paul Goodman about the way the nominations and voting works. Basically suggesting that you should not take any public declaration of support by an MP as being the way they actually will vote. That cuts two ways for the candidates

even Brady won’t know how his colleagues vote in the event of an election. An MP could declare that he is supporting a candidate, nominate another…and vote for yet another. Meet “the most sophisticated electorate in the world”.

Tell him he can run if he gets a **** haircut and combs it every day.

TBH I don’t see why Javid Savid doesn’t get as much the love as much as Richie Sunass.

His principles to not sack his advisors cost him his job and put the tax fiddling junior on the podium.

Not that I have love for either, I can’t see either of them pulling a chicken out the hat to sort out the mess their party have presided over without joe public getting a beating.

As much as I don’t,like Savid much the only reason I think we have Richie is due to amount of Wonga he has influence over with his missuss(and appeal to the Tory party) not his stellar finance acumen.

Tell him he can run if he gets a **** haircut and combs it ever

TBH looking at the holiday pics, I don’t think he could physically run anywhere nowadays, he does seem to be enjoying the good life.

As opposed to his attempts to lose weight after covid, which were important then.

I wouldn’t normally body shame but he’s on my shit list for Brexit and handling of covid and conning a nation.

Oh no mate, it’s okay, that body is shameful.

3/ have that validated by a GE when the public are also appraised of the man’s character (good or bad, let’s find out by the appropriate standards committees, etc.)

I think you’re crediting the electorate with far too much intelligence. I’ve got colleagues at work who were practically cheering at the return of the honking pudding. They think all his “shenanigans” are a good thing!

I’m being unashamedly lazy here so apologies, but my F.i.L (and subsequently my wife) keep trotting out statements about Gordon Brown selling off gold reserves and doing something damaging to pensions, what are they talking about exactly?

Gordon Brown’s gold reserve sell off is a standard line trotted out by Tory supporters to criticise him. IMO it is irrelevant to his handling of the international credit crisis.

Gordon “no return to boom and bust” Brown got a lot of things wrong imo, including his obsession with alleged wage driven inflation/government subsidies of low wage employers, the drive for private sector involvement/commitment to the free market, but to his undeniable credit he threw the neo-liberal rulebook out of the window, as many other governments also did, when the international credit crisis hit the UK.

He and Alistair Darling were highly successful in pumping money into the public sector to prop up the private sector thereby, along with other measures such as slashing VAT, saving an incomprehensible amount of jobs and unemployment never reaching the expected levels.

Despite the crises being far worse than the one inspired by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s unemployment never reached anywhere near the over 3 million which occurred under her premiership.

Gordon Brown was willing to allow socialism to once again save capitalism in a crisis, for which he was later punished. It is hard to imagine that Thatcher, Major, and Cameron, would have been so responsive – Thatcher made her crises worse by taking money away, Major sat back and did nothing during his crises when people were losing their homes and were trapped in negative equity, and Cameron decided to create his own crisis as soon as he became PM by introducing brutal austerity which caused countless misery and unnecessary deaths.

Johnson did, it has to be said, significantly allow socialism to come to the rescue during the crisis caused by the pandemic, other Tories would undoubtedly have taken a trump-like light-touch denialist attitude, but I don’t think you are allow to say anything vaguely positive about Johnson on here.**

Gordon Brown’s sell off of UK gold reserves whether right or wrong is pretty irrelevant in the whole scheme of things, the figure his accusers use is less than £5 billion, how does that compare with the size of the UK economy?

The previous Tory Chancellor promised to spunk £45 billion on unnecessary tax giveaways, with even more later, before being unceremoniously sacked.

Edit: ** To be clear I have no doubt whatsoever that a Labour PM, any Labour PM, would have coped with the pandemic better than Johnson. Before I get the predictable accusation that I am a Tory/Johnson supporter.

The fact that there seems to be some “senior” Tory MPs who are saying that while they’re with and support Johnson, they won’t do so publicly until 1. He declares he’s actually in the race and 2. He’s got >100 votes.

Neither which is there with about 24 hours to go.

Johnson did, it has to be said, significantly allow socialism to come to the rescue during the crisis caused by the pandemic, other Tories would undoubtedly have taken a trump-like light-touch denialist attitude, but I don’t think you are allow to say anything vaguely positive about Johnson on here.**

– Johnson’s main competitor to lead the party in 2019 was Hunt. During the heights of the pandemic he consistently called for the government to do more earlier, not less later (we were less prepared for the pandemic partly because of his actions while in government.. perhaps it was guilt that led him to call out Johnson’s government for not being interventionist soon enough once it had hit).

– Johnson’s main competitor to lead the party in 2022 is Sunak. During the heights of the pandemic he, er, did those things you’re crediting Johnson with. If the furlough scheme etc was “socialism”, then it was devised and delivered by another Tory, not Johnson.

Our pandemic response was often too late because Johnson, personally, did not want interventions, and delayed and delayed ’till he could delay no more. The price was high. The price paid wasn’t purely down to the conservatives being in power, Johnson was and is responsible for those delays in taking necessary action.

[ I said I’d shut up, but this continued reassessment of Johnson’s pandemic response is pure hokum ]

For what its worth, the cashout figure on my bet on Johnson being the next PM has been going up continuously

Make of that what you will

I’m not cashing out.

Despite the party grandees desperately trying to avoid it, this looks like a Rishi/Johnson run off being put to the membership and theres only going to be one winner there

At which point I’ll put another bet on Johnson being out before Christmas

At which point I’ll put another bet on Johnson being out before Christmas

Wish someone had given me odds on two new PMs before the year is out during the period of mourning.

The gold reserve sell off was massively overstated. He did sell at exactly the wrong time for gold, but then invested in US securities at exactly the right time, so it ended up overall bad, but as Ernie says in the grand scheme of things it was peanuts. By current chancellor standards (pick any of the recent ones) the losses were tiny.

In fact the size of the gold loss pales in comparison to the pension fund tax he introduced (or rather tax break he got rid of). That cost pension funds a lot of money but they were already a house of cards ready to collapse, he just didn’t see it – his tax took a lot of money out of the system and precipitated the curtailment of final salary pensions (which to be honest were always a bad idea) as well as help create some black holes in some pension funds. The reality was though that the intention was he was taxing the ‘excess’ which it turns out wasn’t really there, but because of the way they were leveraged with so many complex finance deals, it looked like they were in rude health, but when 2008 came along I suspect it would have unravelled either way as it all fell apart.

It’s worth noting on that while it was generally bad idea in hindsight, the size of the pensions hole completely dwarves the tax raid from Gordon Brown. They were totally inadequately capitalised to cope with the increasing life expectancy of their defined pension recipients, nor were they protected against the wild fluctuations in the market we’ve seen in the last 20 years. Further, subsequent to the pension tax increase, they (the funds, the gov, companies, individuals) have done very little to increase contributions, and the UK still lags miles behind everyone else in that regard.

So in conclusion, yes GB did some stupid stuff, yes he shouldn’t have done it, no in the grand scheme of things its not that important, even for pension holders.

I didn’t vote Labour in 2010… looking back on the fallout of Brown leaving government… a big mistake.

I’m not cashing out.

For what it’s worth, I’d cash out now. What can you get at the moment? What will you get if he becomes the next PM?

Johnson’s main competitor to lead the party in 2022 is Sunak. During the heights of the pandemic he..

Sunak criticised for slamming scientists’ pandemic advice

Outrage as prime ministerial hopeful says science advisers failed to acknowledge trade-offs of Covid restrictions

Conservative leadership contender Rishi Sunak has come under fire for claiming it was a mistake to “empower scientists” during the Covid-19 pandemic—sparking outrage from academics.

According to the former chancellor, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies—which provided the government with scientific advice during the pandemic—had too much influence on decision-making.

Graham Medley, professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the government had the power, “so if one member of cabinet thinks that scientific advice was too ‘empowered’ then it is a criticism of their colleagues rather than the scientists”.

Yes, when trying to get the votes off of Conservative members Sunak played that game, as did Truss. We’ve been over that already. I suppose the only way to avoid this endless circle is for me to shut up, and leave you to keep up the fluffing of Johnson’s reputation in peace. Carry on…

For what it’s worth, I’d cash out now. What can you get at the moment? What will you get if he becomes the next PM?

I stuck a fiver on it at 7/1 (in March). Its up to a tenner cashout at the moment. If he gets the hundred nominations and it goes to the members, he’ll walk it

In the meantime, good old Mad Nads campaign/love affair the the flytipped sofa provides a constant source of amusement. Looks like she’s been on the gin nice and early today

If Rishi Sunak were to win, the focus of the privileges committee I am absolutely certain would move straight onto Rishi Sunak and what he knew – in order to embolden Labours call for a general election. With Rishi we will be in general election territory within weeks.

— Nadine Dorries (@NadineDorries) October 23, 2022

Is there much to be gained ‘arguing’ over which of these dreadful bunch are the better or worse? It’s like deciding which of the four horsemen you’d prefer. None of us have any say in who it will be anyway.

If he gets the hundred nominations and it goes to the members, he’ll walk it

Part of me hopes that 100+ have promised him their nominations, but then when it comes to it loads don’t submit them. It’s secret after all. There must be plenty of MPs who have heard him promise them support, only for it not to materialise. The chance for a bit of payback is there. Push him into declaring he’s standing, only to then get less than 100 nominations.

At which point I’ll put another bet on Johnson being out before Christmas

Nah, if he wins he’ll be in for two years imo. The whole point of MPs throwing their weight behind Johnson is that him becoming PM again instantly bats away the growing call for an early general election, Ben Wallace made that point a couple of days ago.

Sunak would simply increase the call for an early general election to a deafening pitch, so if he wins Starmer might possibly be PM by Christmas, as the government losses all authority and legitimacy.

If Johnson is reinstalled no one (Tory) will dare to attempt to remove him from office.

I still think Sunak will win though. And I am leaning towards the hope that he does, but only because of the suggested scenario.

If Johnson is reinstalled no one (Tory) will dare to attempt to remove him from office.

If he wins, he needs the support of MPs to stay in the post. Support that their constituents will see. After so many of them called from him to step down only this year. His working majority could soon be reduced to very little, and there will be some hard votes to get though this winter. All with a backdrop of the public wanting him out. A short highly negative second period of office awaits him. Day in day out they’ll be the noise of people on his own side, and the public at large, asking… “why is he still here?!”

Still think Sunak will win though… but then the “betrayal” and “globalist elite stitch up” narrative will start to swell, damaging the Tories from within and bringing with it a rise of Farrage like outsiders looking to take the Conservative support and vote. All avoidable if Johnson had just stayed out of the picture. Thanks Alex.

Whatever happens this week, it’s going to become very difficult for the Tories.

an ernie kelvin truce?

I’ll give it 24 hours

(posted 17 hours ago)

(posted 17 hours ago)

I tried the shutting up thing… they just carried on with more posts making the same points and throwing in their ever so unsubtle digs. Is that how it should work?

Is he just angling for PM so he can make the Priv Committee stuff go away? Can’t see it working, any vote to do this would effectively be a confidence vote and I’m pretty sure enough MPs would wash their hands of the party at that point.

Day in day out they’ll be the noise of people on his own side, and the public at large, asking… “why is he still here?!”

The main problem will be the standards committee if it lives up to what is being rumoured.
All the old dirt being dusted off and lots of new stuff.

Plus with the investigation on him, which sounds like he will get suspended and can then result in a recall and him being booted out.
If the mp’s vote to can the investigation the screams will be deafening and i can’t see a bunch of the tories voting for that confiding the blowback after the paterson stupidity

If Johnson is reinstalled no one (Tory) will dare to attempt to remove him from office.

I completely agree with that, but if the standards committee investigation concludes as predicted then he’s done.

He’ll do his upmost to stop the investigation (as he did while still PM), but I doubt he’ll get away with it

With this country at the moment, to predict the future just ask yourself ‘what is the most farcical, ludicrous thing that could happen next?” then stick some money on that

He’ll get back in again then be booted out again, this time by the standards committee (after trying every trick in the book to stop it). Expect loads of other nonsensical variables to be lobbed into the mix too just for shits and giggles

We are now a banana republic

All of which dramatically decreases his chances of winning against Sunak. I can’t see him doing it. I’m not convinced that he will even get the 100 nominations required, despite having some big names behind him.

What is it currently, about 200 Tory MPs declared? So there are potentially 150 undeclared votes floating about. He seems to have 54 official backers (assuming everyone votes the way they say they will 🙂 ) , so he doesn’t need a huge swathe of the 150 to get over the line. At which point you have to think there is a fair chance the membership will endorse him.

I reckon if he can get the number of ‘officials’ up past 70, then the prospect of him winning and handing out ministerial jobs will drag out the remainder he needs.

Still can’t fathom why he wants the job, though, unless it’s simply to spite Rishi Sunak.

Is there much to be gained ‘arguing’ over which of these dreadful bunch are the better or worse? It’s like deciding which of the four horsemen you’d prefer. None of us have any say in who it will be anyway.

I have a say. My dad is a Conservative member and he’s given up on choosing so has let me and my sister decide between us and he’ll vote for them if it gets to a Member’s Vote.

Still can’t fathom why he wants the job, though, unless it’s simply to spite Rishi Sunak.

It’s an interesting question. He is a very thin-skinned and vindictive man though and also in possession of an absolutely ludicrous sense of entitlement. He can’t help himself. He’s also desperately insecure and needs constant affirmation of his own wonderfulness

If you believe what you read then the unhinged old racists that constitute the constituency associations are leaning on their MPs to nominate Boris, with the threat of deselection if they don’t

So there are potentially 150 undeclared votes floating about.

I think his return is inevitable just to put the icing on the cake that is the rolling car crash of Brexit Britain. Johnson is the living embodiment of the the UK’s flight from reality into pure ‘cakist’ fantasy, post 2016.

Still can’t fathom why he wants the job, though, unless it’s simply to spite Rishi Sunak.

Yeah it would make more sense to wait until the Tories are in opposition if he really wants a second crack at the job.

I don’t think that he can overrule his ego.

My dad is a Conservative member and he’s given up on choosing so has let me and my sister decide between us

This is promising. If I had voted Conservative at the last election, I would come to the conclusion that I was so dreadfully wrong, that I would never vote again – leave it to the people who know better.

I think Sunak will get it (was there not something about a clear winner and it not making a members vote) If I was a tory MP I would be thinking if I vote for him (clown) he could end up out in weeks and at that point I think the tories would really struggle to fend off a GE (as it is half of the tory MPs will be out of a job come next GE) so really the safe bet is Rishi who is the most likely to see them to a GE in 2 years and will probably reduce the points gap between the 2 parties.

You see, theres your problem right there. You’re evaluating this using logic and reasoning. We don’t do that in this country any more, particularly not in the Tory party. Haven’t done for 6 years or so.

You just have to BELIEVE and vote with your heart, not your head, and everything will be just wonderful

I don’t think that he can overrule his ego.

This. He’s just cosplaying Churchill, after all.

was there not something about a clear winner and it not making a members vote

No, if he gets 100 or more he goes into the online ballot vs Sunak, following an ‘indicative vote’ by MPs. Even though this will show that far more MPs support Sunak, there is still a good chance the members will ignore this, as they did with Truss.

There is some polling (probably dubious), which suggests how the Tories would perform at a GE immediately with the various candidates at the helm. It’s still fairly awful for them with Johnson, but not as bad as with the other two. It’s possible that some Tory MPs are already pricing in a GE before Christmas, and are looking at the leader who may help them keep their jobs.

So Johnson comes in, kicks the privilege ctte can down the road by a couple of months using his normal Russia Report type tricks, then calls an election after a month of boosterism?

It’s hard to game out any scenario which makes sense, but perhaps it does to some of the MPs?

You just have to BELIEVE and vote with your heart, not your head, and everything will be just wonderful

But lets be honest the tories are kidding on they are looking after the country, then they say they are looking after the party (they aren’t) so realistically they are down to looking after themselves and the best way to keep their nose in the trough for longest is Rishi, I don’t doubt how stupid some MPs are but surely the writing is on the wall.