Boris – boot in trap moment, Obama content

3 ins
2 outs
1 undecided but verging on out

Round the dinner table !

Probably quite representative despite the narrow/skewed sample.

Avoided the topic until Mrs THM bought it up over coffee/lesbo teas. Nearly had to open unnecessary bottles of non EU wine to fuel the debate

Lesbo teas? 😯 I live a sheltered life

You know what those MP’s are like 😉

What I don’t understand is the naysayers predicting gloom. We are important to German and French businesses. We are important to their trade. If we leave the Euro will nose dive.

The stayers seem to think what has been fed to them, that we are nothing without the leadership in Brussels.

The EU isn’t in a healthy state. The Greek crisis had shown this. When they default (they bloody will), what effect on the EU do you think it’ll have?

3 ins
2 outs

Why were you comparing belly buttons at the dinner table?

What I don’t understand is the naysayers predicting gloom. We are important to German and French businesses. We are important to their trade. If we leave the Euro will nose dive

So you accept that if we leave its bad for them but you dont accept that if we leave it bad for us? I dont understand how you can think that.

Trade will be harmed by us leaving, we all know this its inevitable. That effect will be negative for us and for them. However the EU exports 7% of all its stuff to us and we export over 50% of our stuff to them. Their GDP is also x 5 of ours. Given this is not hard to work out who has most to lose by us leaving
Its also hugely unrealistic to think we can leave the EU, stopping paying, stip obeying their rules and they wil then just go – yeah go on of course you can have unfettered access to the entire market.
The EU wont be massively keen on the UK thriving afterwards as they will also want it to be a “warning” to others- dont leave the EU look what happened to the UK- so they wont be feeling compliant to UK requests.

Clearly the UK will recover – how long and by what method is what the brexit lot cannot answer – but the notion we will not be negatively affected is a dream built on wishful thinking and denial of the obvious.
Its just true/a fact – the only folk who deny this is brexiters. No neutral organisation has this view- that economically in the short to medium term we will be negatively affected.

The stayers seem to think what has been fed to them, that we are nothing without the leadership in Brussels.

No stayer thinks we are nothing without Brussels- strange straw man.
Are these two views really the depth of your grasp of the subject?
You then you want to lecture others for falling for what has been “fed ” them.
MMMHHH strokes chin and frowns

The Rotterdam-Antwerp effect.

Quantify.

He cannot he just read it somewhere and thought that staing it might negate the points made. It does not.

Even with the most extreme interpretation of this its still 43 % v 7% and the points still stand – you know the ones you sidestepped .

Can you really not answer the questions or explain?

We need their trade more than they need ours

We are leaving and they are bigger so they wont be “helping” that much

Our trade, and theirs with us, will be negatively affected by leaving.

None of this is anything more complicated or controversial than predicting the sun will rise tomorrow.

The EU wont be massively keen on the UK thriving afterwards as they will also want it to be a “warning” to others- dont leave the EU look what happened to the UK- so they wont be feeling compliant to UK requests.

That’s good enough reason to leave right there, unless that’s really the company you want to keep.

The UK has no need to fear such bullying though, as in all likelihood Brexit will be the much needed catalyst for EU dismemberment.
Look at the recent Swedish poll for example, similar countries would not be far behind.
Once the Dutch are certain that they have been ignored, they’ll want out too.
With the net contributors facing ever increasing bills to bail out Greece, then Spain, then Italy, it will all fall apart.
In fact I think I’ll invest in flaming torches for when the French find out how much extra they’ll have to pay.

Leave.
Start again.

If we don’t do it now it will be too late.

quite a lot of sciencing money comes from the EU, and collaborations and opportunities rely on membership. Have a lot of fun moving around the place because of membership.

people who want to leave can’t seem to come up with any convincing arguments.

That’s good enough reason to leave right there, unless that’s really the company you want to keep.

I will probably vote In bit that is a good argument for Out – particularly in the light of the blatant non-democratic bullying that Greece is enduring, and the sucking up to the Turks that is ongoing (German prosecution of a comedian who criticises Erdogan, FFS ?????)

Not read the whole thread but actually astonished to see so many people supportive of these comments on the first page. Some of you have really reached new lows, which is quite an achievement.

That’s good enough reason to leave right there, unless that’s really the company you want to keep

What is? that they only help us if we are in the club and we follow the rules ? That is just what happens in any club. Clubs have rules. if you leave then you dont get the help of the club. Using this as if its somehow unusual or a sign of anything other than the obvious is somewhat strange

The UK has no need to fear such bullying though, as in all likelihood Brexit will be the much needed catalyst for EU dismemberment.

See i told you all they have is wishful thinking and denial of the truth
I missed out the use of emotive language though like “bullying”

Its hardly bullying sbob – its merely stating the obvious and (no shit sherlock) from a position of each party’s self interest. What’s the issue, why would you expect anything else? Brexit is a PITA for most parties and a lose-lose.

Hora, after the next Greek default, losses will be hidden away and absorbed largely by the taxpayers in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands. The Germans will huff and puff – conveniently ignoring the fact that this is the inevitable result of the construct that they themselves put in place – but they will not blow their straw house down. Unfortunately, it will not be the catalyst for the much need re-assessment of what the future of EU should look like, who wants to be part of the greater political union, who doesnt, and how will the different parties choose to interact with each other. It is only at the point that a referendum to decide in/out makes any sense?

This is just a rather sad sideshow and given that UKIP isnt a threat anymore a totally redundant political stunt.

It would be amusing if it wasnt so serious.

[KB – a sheltered life indeed if you miss the luscious and tender interplay between the lovely Jasmine and the more robust ginger pubes. Quite a finale 😉 ]

Dr the bullying of Greece is a direct consequence of the € – flawed in concept, flawed in execution. But they are not blame free either 😉

The Germans gave benefited from Turkish migration for decades – they don’t bite the hand that feeds them and Frau Compromise needs an elegant (sordid? you decide) solution to her open arms cock-up.

bigrich – Member

quite a lot of sciencing money comes from the EU, and collaborations and opportunities rely on membership. Have a lot of fun moving around the place because of membership.

people who want to leave can’t seem to come up with any convincing arguments.

The money is not going to just disappear.
We give money to the EU and we get less of it back. The rest pays for a huge tier of bureaucracy and funding failing countries for their inept and corrupt governance.
I know typically the left leaning are more accepting of increased bureaucracy, but less is better.

Odd Dr, to be considering out when you consider the protection of workers’ rights that the EU has been responsible for, but it IS a debate full of delicious contradictions! You appear to favour such things in other threads! 😉

Odd Dr, to be considering out when you consider the protection of workers’ rights that the EU has been responsible for, but it IS a debate full of delicious contradictions! You appear to favour such things in other threads!

I agree – there are strong pluses and minuses on both sides.

Dr the bullying of Greece is a direct consequence of the € – flawed in concept, flawed in execution. But they are not blame free either

I agree with this too. Going for a lie down now 🙂

‘He can not’.

Junkyard you need to read more than the top three hits on Google.

Read up on the phenomenon. It skewers actual trade figures as the ports are often the hub where trade is dispursed by ship etc regional and even globally.

Just because trade lands in a hub doesn’t mean it stays landed.

I though it’d be Grexit that brings down the EU. It might just be Grexit, then we can have a powerful influence in Europe instead of Germany.

It skewers actual trade figures as the ports are often the hub where trade is dispursed by ship etc regional and even globally.

Yes it does – as JY is well aware.

Again – please quantify it.

No free trade agreements exist today betwen UK/EU and US or China, doesn’t seem to holding us back. A trade agreement between the US and EU is still some way off due to resistance from the EU. The German people held a 30,000 person rally against the negotiation yesterday.

We come back again to trade imbalances between the UK and the EU which are very much in our favour, we are a rich country buying a huge amount more than we buy from them and focused on high vaue added goods especially from Germany. Those arguing for IN on the basis of “trade” are primarily supporting UK based financial services which in my view are quite capable of standing on their own two feet.

@tmh I don’t think you can brush a Greek default under the carpet like that, when it happens and there is the potential contagion to other much larger over-extended EU members. Osbourne was squirming last time to keep us out (aside from our part of the IMF loans) of the bailout but he won’t be able to achieve the same next time. We will be required to pay into the stability fund in what Junker will declare is an emergency

It is very much in the interests of the US and the EU we remain in to bolster an economically weak and failing political project, its quite clear to me it is not in our interests.

Trade will continue irrespective of the outcome

In the ST it would be more complicated/difficult in the event of Brexit inevitably – no one knows the rules of the game. But we can see now how uncertainty over Brexit is delaying investment, consumption etc…

In the LT, who knows? But history tells us its better to participate in trade and integrate than to be isolationist – being an active member of one of the world’s most important trade areas seems a pretty attractive option to me….

Dr, enjoy your lie down 😉

See i told you all they have is wishful thinking and denial of the truth

Denial of truth?
Did I imagine the Swedish poll?
Am I wrong about how the Dutch feel (admittedly, having family from the Netherlands I’m probably in a more knowledgeable position regarding their feelings and thoughts than yourself, maybe not)?
Am I imagining the growing anti-EU sentiments in the major EU states?
More and more groups calling for a referendum of their own?

I’d suggest that it isn’t me that is in denial.

What is? that they only help us if we are in the club and we follow the rules ? That is just what happens in any club. Clubs have rules. if you leave then you dont get the help of the club. Using this as if its somehow unusual or a sign of anything other than the obvious is somewhat strange

I’m not a member of many clubs. Not aware of any of them actively wanting to penalise me for not being a member, which was the tone of the text I quoted.

Hot off the press – news from the EU’s next member:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/24/dutch-journalist-ebru-umar-arrested-in-turkey-for-criticising-erdogan

No free trade agreements exist today betwen UK/EU and US or China, doesn’t seem to holding us back.

True, precisely because we have benefited form the significant on-going trends of reduced trade barriers between the US and the EU – as mentioned before the US prefers to negotiate with regions/blocks rather than individual countries. Lets not bite the hand that feeds us either!

A trade agreement between the US and EU is still some way off due to resistance from the EU. The German people held a 30,000 person rally against the negotiation yesterday.

Aspects of it?

@tmh I don’t think you can brush a Greek default under the carpet like that, when it happens and there is the potential contagion to other much larger over-extended EU members.

No we both know that Greece now is very different to Greece in the past. Yes, the eventual default will be problematic but the systemic risk – at least to the private sector – is of a very different scale now.

Osbourne was squirming last time to keep us out (aside from our part of the IMF loans) of the bailout but he won’t be able to achieve the same next time. We will be required to pay into the stability fund in what Junker will declare is an emergency

True

It is very much in the interests of the US and the EU we remain in

True too

to bolster an economically weak and failing political project, its quite clear to me it is not in our interests.

much more debatable…

Greece should have been allowed to default but then look at all the stuff they’d bought from German companies. Submarines anyone?

The EU is a great idea on paper.

Denial of truth?
Did I imagine the Swedish poll?
Am I wrong about how the Dutch feel

Is that what i quoted?
I questioned how likely it was that the EU dismemberment if we left. Its fanciful at best to hope for this never mind suggest it.

I’d suggest that it isn’t me that is in denial.

You have not even addressed the quote i gave you so you pretty much are.

Not aware of any of them actively wanting to penalise me for not being a member

Then i suggest you leave them all and stop paying the subs /following the rules as afterwards everything will be just the same as before as they will treat you just the same 😕
Its pretty obvious membership of club conveys something and non membership does not. I am not sure HowTF we can actually debate this tbh but nice try.

Junkyard you need to read more than the top three hits on Google.

Read up on the phenomenon. It skewers actual trade figures as the ports are often the hub where trade is dispursed by ship etc regional and even globally.
Duh thanks Hora that’s why I quoted the most extreme- highest- figure from the ONS report on this which i am sure you have also read 🙄
Ninfan brought it up on the other thread and I quoted from it.

Anyway the effect does not negate any of this

We need their trade more than they need ours

We are leaving and they are bigger so they wont be “helping” that much

Our trade, and theirs with us, will be negatively affected by leaving.

Hora saying read up…priceless 😆

Is that what i quoted?

No, you ignored the substance of my post.

I questioned how likely it was that the EU dismemberment if we left. Its fanciful at best to hope for this never mind suggest it

Well you didn’t really question it. You just said I had nothing but wishful thinking and was denying the truth, whilst at the same time ignoring the pertinent parts of my post.
There’s a word for that.

It’s nice of you to think that an economically failing EU will merrily soldier on as usual after losing its second biggest fundraiser.
Nice or naive, one of the two.

I am not sure HowTF we can actually debate this

You’ve completely misunderstood the situation so no, we can’t. You need to read my post again.
This:

Then i suggest you leave them all and stop paying the subs /following the rules as afterwards everything will be just the same as before as they will treat you just the same

shows the comprehension failure.
Not that it is an important part of this discussion. You’ve ignored those bits.

DrJ – Member

Hot off the press – news from the EU’s next member:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/24/dutch-journalist-ebru-umar-arrested-in-turkey-for-criticising-erdogan

That’s fair enough.
Everyone knows not to question Dear Leader.

Hello EU superstate.
Goodbye free speech and democracy.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/barack-obama-wants-boris-johnson-prefer-gutter/

Boris Johnson is a former editor of this newspaper, and as such has the right to be treated with a courtesy Spectator journalists do not normally extend to politicians who do not enjoy his advantages.

I am therefore writing with the caution of a lawyer and the deference of a palace flunkey when I say that Johnson showed this morning that he is a man without principle or shame. He is a braying charlatan, who lacks the courage even to be an honest b**tard, for there is a kind of b**tardly integrity in showing the world who you really are, but instead uses the tactics of the coward and the tricks of the fraudster to advance his worthless career.

you ignored the substance of my post.

HAHAHAH You want to say I ignored the substance of your post when you spoke about something i never said and I actually quoted you…..brilliant. 😆

Well you didn’t really question it. You just said I had nothing but wishful thinking and was denying the truth

Read that back to yourself will you

It’s nice of you to think that an economically failing EU will merrily soldier on as usual after losing its second biggest fundraiser.

There is a word for that straw man – I questioned what you said I accepted there was implications for both i reject it will break up without us

shows the comprehension failure.

I think you will need to explain how clubs dont work like that for me to be having a comprehension fail

Have you considered explaining WHY am I wrong rather than just saying I am wrong?
It really is impossible ot have a rational debate with a brexiter but the irony is a beautiful thing to behold.

JY the EU ex UK will be run primarily by the Germans and French (to the extent it isn’t already), those two countries have the most to loose from a no-trade pact in the event of Brexit. We are very confident there will be a suitable deal and the risk of none or a delay is more than balanced by the benefits of not being sucked into a Greek default eurozone implosion – outside the EU we’ll have the flex to react as necessary. All the new EU members going forward will follow the mode of economically weak countries seeking to gain financially whilst offering little more than “market headcount”

None of the analysis has focused on the huge benefits of controlled immigration with the UK taking the best and brightest defined by what we need as a country as set against freedom of movement which undermines wages and working conditions.

Corbyn and others have spoken about the benefits of remaining in a Reformed EU but the EU is only reforming in one direction and thats further away from we as a country want, its a European Superstate project

those two countries have the most to loose from a no-trade pact in the event of Brexit.

No its still us as the entire EU is over 50% of our trade
Its really not hard to work out who needs who the most and who has the best negotiating positions. Its bizarre to argue they need us MOST when our trade is the greater. If they need us then what is our position?

We just won’t hold any bargaining chips at the table – we will be like Scotland asking to keep the pound- except they will probably let us if we pay- and to argue otherwise is to put your politics/ view of the EU before reality.

It appears that even Mr. Farage is wanting to disassociate with The touslehaired one, saying “one should play the ball not the man”
A quote in todays Sunday Times from a Vote Leave source:
“Obama coming here and telling us what to think is insulting, but Boris issues a borderline racist insult and it all rebounds on us”

You want to say I ignored the substance of your post when you spoke about something i never said and I actually quoted you

You cherry picked, or part quoted.
I was trying to get you to engage with the parts of my post you ignored.
Sticking your fingers in your ears and singing “La la la I can’t hear you” will not further debate.

Read that back to yourself will you

Again, I was trying to get you to engage with the pertinent parts of my post, the bits you are still ignoring.

There is a word for that straw man – I questioned what you said I accepted there was implications for both i reject it will break up without us

I’ll concede the first part, but as for the likelihood of breakup post Brexit, you are refusing to discuss the matters I raised. Until you do, there is no discussion.

I think you will need to explain how clubs dont work like that for me to be having a comprehension fail

You’re arguing against something I haven’t said (ooh, a *strawman! Back at you!). Go back and re-read what I did write or just drop it.

Have you considered explaining WHY am I wrong rather than just saying I am wrong?

Oh FFS.

There are many clubs that I do not belong to.
None of these clubs penalise me for not being a member.
The tone of this post:

The EU wont be massively keen on the UK thriving afterwards as they will also want it to be a “warning” to others- dont leave the EU look what happened to the UK- so they wont be feeling compliant to UK requests

suggests that the EU would likely penalise us for not being a member.

Hence the bullying remark.

I used to be a member of a cycling club.
I am no longer a member of that cycling club.
The cycling club do not try and penalise me now I am not a member.
Shit, sometimes I still go cycling with them.
They are not bullies.

Is that clear to understand?

Seriously, my written English isn’t bad and I believe I write quite clearly.
If I’m going to have to explain every simple post I make you may as well stop replying.

It really is impossible to have a rational debate with

Someone who continually refuses to acknowledge and try and refute what the other side are saying.

jimw – Member

It appears that even Mr. Farage is wanting to disassociate with The touslehaired one, saying “one should play the ball not the man”

If Farage has successfully taken the moral high ground then BJ is definitely ****! 😆

“Obama coming here and telling us what to think is insulting, but Boris issues a borderline racist insult and it all rebounds on us”

Borderline racist? Thats a generous interpretation. Theres nothing ‘borderline’ about it!

Its just yet another example of Boris being prepared to do absolutely anything, including wooing the racists, to get what he wants. I find it absolutely inexplicable that there are people who can’t see through him. As hurty said earlier, his naked ambition is absolutely transparent. This whole EU thing is just a game to him, in his bid to be PM. He couldn’t give a toss about the detrimental effect it has on the economy, the country, or anyone in it, as long as he gets to be boss.

I think if he got it though he’d be like Gordon Brown. He jealously covered the top job, and was prepared to anything to get it, then once he got there, he didn’t have a ****ing clue what to do.

Boris is the same. In fact he’d be far, far far worse. He’d make GB look like Churchill! He’d be an absolute disaster!

sbob you cannot be in a the EU club and then get them benefits of membership. It just wont happen and do argue otherwise is to be somewhat disassociated from reality.

They wont help the Uk afterwards- anymore than we help them – If you want to call this bullying , when both sides will be doing the same thing, then that is your choice. However this is a result of your politics rather than due to a calm consideration of the facts.

All of this is just silly all of this remains true hence why you need to debate by ognoring anyone who comments on your posts – for not talking about the right bit- then wobble all over the place in a shitty personal dialogue that is so poor even I Am declining it and being the nice one.
The reality is the EU wont collapse without us
We need their trade more than they need ours

We are leaving and they are bigger so they wont be “helping” that much

Our trade, and theirs with us, will be negatively affected by leaving

You have nothing to negate those points for they are as contentious as saying the sun will rise hene you do this because you just want to leave