OP – Reclaiming the Falklands (Malvinas) remains a national priority for Argentina. Worryingly, they have spent a great deal of money on modernising and professionalising their armed forces. They are very keen to open a dialogue with the UK about the sovereignty of the Islands. However, the UK is unlikely to negotiate while the majority 3,000 Islanders want to remain British. The sad irony is that during the 1970s the British Government was quite open to the idea of handing sovereignty over to the Argentine. Had they not invaded in 1982, then the Falkland islanders may have been lured by promises of Argentinean investment and compensation.
It is possible that the Argentineans will use their armed forces to only threaten invasion, thus causing the UK’s already overstretched armed forces to struggle with their existing operations. This will bring the UK Government to the table. A prime time would be this summer during the Olympics. British troops will be committed in Afghanistan and thousands will be providing security for the Games. Also, it will be winter in the South Atlantic which will hamper the progress of any British Task Force. A cunning Argintenian commander may also threaten Acension, and St Helena, South Georgia or even the British Antartic Territory in order to tie down as many British resources as possible.
It is possible that a small group of military extremists will set up a base on a remote corner of the Falklands. This would place the UK in a difficult position. It could use force to remove the outpost, but it could be bloody. More likely, they will negotiate. Worst case scenario is that the outpost gains the support the Argentineans public forcing the hand of the Government.
The real question is: How many British lives are we willing to sacrifice for a small chunks of rock with a population of about 3,000 people? Already, 255 sounds too much.