Prof Tim Spector, Epidimiologist at KCL
Has been unequivocal about continuing mask wearing for the time being. Hasn't he? Was talking use into 2022. Has he indicated whether now is the correct time to remove government mandatory use? Or just echoed that is what happening, and that we should continue to use them despite that?
The only mitigation which would even flatten this wave from now on is full lockdown.
I think (hope) that is pessimistic, and ignores the effect of the summer holidays for schools, colleges and universities on transmission. It'll take a few weeks for that to kick in, but it should. But the summer break alone doesn't explain why the government is right at this moment to just say "it's up to you", wash its hands, and leave it to business and individuals to work out a way though the summer. Thats based on political dogma, not the advice they are being given.
I think (hope) that is pessimistic, and ignores the effect of the summer holidays for schools, colleges and universities on transmission.
Perhaps, but end of university/school terms also offers up transmission routes into other populations as students head to their home towns, and families visit other relatives or other geographical areas. There was a suggestion that schools coming out would reduce R0 by roughly the same amount that other relaxation would increase it.
There may also be the illusion of case numbers dropping because the schools aren't testing twice a week any more. Hospitalisations and deaths are the only relevant measures now.
I'm not pessimistic, particularly, and I think that further full lockdowns 'may' be avoided, but that's dependant on a bit of luck from now on, rather than being in our own hands. It's going to be a white-knuckle ride from here until March.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern
Has been unequivocal about continuing mask wearing for the time being. Hasn’t he? Was talking use into 2022. Has he indicated whether now is the correct time to remove government mandatory use? Or just echoed that is what happening, and that we should continue to use them despite that?
Yes, he does support mask wearing. You added your qualifying appendices after I'd started writing the response 😉
Sorry, I always build up posts when using the phone.
So, which scientists have pushed for mandatory mask wearing to be dropped as of yesterday (in England)? Rather than just accepting it as a political decision made and to be worked with (by a continued drip of advice about mask wearing that they hope won't just be ignored by the freedom fighting elements of society). Customer facing staff can't, and shouldn't have to, deal with this. Even economically, I'm far from convinced it's the way to make the most out of the summer break. Many people will be limiting their summer plans due to the end of mandated mask wearing (in England).
I don't think you'll find any reasonable scientist that has Kelvin nor any reasonable poster on here - you're pushing against an open door for the most part old chap.
I don't know that many / any have. I'm arguing (not for, not against, just that an argument needs airing) that releasing restrictions (some / which also a debate) feels like an error to me, but I'm not in possession of all the info.
Again for avoidance of doubt I am very pro mask wearing / other unrestrictive restrictions personally. Just arguing that shutting down debate 'because it's obvious and anyone that says otherwise is a covid denying right winger.....' is not how this should work.
When the scientific consensus is overwhelmingly one way and the various statistical indicators are only going one way then its clear to me.
However - and I know this is beyond irony coming from me - this thread has been a really good source of information for many of us so can we shut down the " how many angels on the head of a pin" type debate?
Good news everyone...
The government quietly ended free LF test ordering for businesses yesterday.
https://www.gov.uk/get-workplace-coronavirus-tests
Individuals can still order test kits for delivery and in England, can collect them in person from some places including pharmacies.
When the scientific consensus is overwhelmingly one way and the various statistical indicators are only going one way then its clear to me.
Scientific consensus used to be overwhelmingly that the world was flat.
And they might not be in the majority but it's not all crackpots and conspiracy theorists saying that on balance now is the time to open up.
now is the time to open up
That isn’t the point at all. It is that… if we should continue mask wearing and should have slowly reduced the social distance measures, as the “three wise men” have told us, why is that not being implemented via policy in England? (it is in the other UK nations)
I DON'T KNOW
But, if it is as important as that; if the outcome is going to be so dreadful if we don't keep these as policies, why aren't the advisors insisting on it, or resigning out of principle over it. I don't understand, but the fact they aren't makes me feel there is a debate to be had over whether there is a merit in dropping all the restrictions all at once, and it's not as clear cut as people are making it out to be.
That is all I am saying. Not what i think we should do, just that I don't understand and I want to try to understand by discussing.
But seems that isn't a popular request, all I'm hearing is BUT THE CONSENSUS SAYS!!!!!!!
Because the overwhelming scientific consensus is that at this point, with our currently high and rising cases, we should continue mask wearing. The political decision has been made to remove all legal mandates to support that. It is that political decision being challenged.
I know.
But not strongly enough for three principled and knowledgeable senior advisors to take a stand over. If it was that clear cut, it would be a no brainer, from a scientific and moral standpoint.
So maybe it's not that clear cut......
theotherjonv - i get what you're saying, but there cannot be any possible shades of grey in this black and white internet world.
But not strongly enough for three principled and knowledgeable senior advisors to take a stand over. If it was that clear cut, it would be a no brainer, from a scientific and moral standpoint.
it really is that clear. Removing all restrictions is going to create a huge boom in infections. Removing the legal mandated mask wearing is going to reduce compliance and increase infections. thats why the three are attempting to mitigate the disaster they know is unfolding
These guys are caught in an impossible situation where they are given the choice of having no influence or retaining a little influence
It's alright Number 10 has now slapped down the business minister who's been writing letters to companies saying employees should ignore being pinged
With such clear & consistent messaging I can't imagine why cases are exploding here in the UK 😳
Also to be clear - legal mandates are being removed but recommendations are still very strongly towards eg: mask wearing.
No-one is saying not to bother. I get why many are in favour of (and personally I agree / don't understand why it's not being kept as a legal mandate). But messaging is clear even if the law isn't.
I think it's hatred of Johnson and the Government that is causing some blinkered thinking here. Take a step back - is what they are suggesting really that outrageous?
Yes it is that outrageous.
to remove the mask mandate will cause huge issues. find any scientist who thinks its a good idea.
Removing the mandate means that people will not wear them. It also means that we get mixed messages. It makes enforcement in shops and on public transport impossible. We now have a stupid situation where the rules are different on the london underground from buses from english mainline trains to cross border trains
confused messaging makes compliance harder
this is the point. You are trying to claim that the 3 wise men are in favour of this. They clearly are not. They are trying to mitigate the stupidity
Two more made up today “rule changes”
A) people pinged for self isolation need to apply to government individually for thier case to be reviewed if they think they are critical workers that should not isolate - thier is no list of vocations as a guidance. Majorie in gov.uk House will let you know, no doubt already primed with a list of Conservative Ministers to tick off immediately as critical workers.
B) Spain’s going an on Amber + list. Amber +? Did that get invented today? easyJet already up in arms about ruined bookings, blurred lines and confusion.
Talk about a shit show.
That's no legal obligation to isolate if the app 'pings' you - only if contacted by track and trace and told to isolate.
Amber + was invented for the French a few days ago I think 👍🙄
I think it’s hatred of Johnson and the Government that is causing some blinkered thinking here. Take a step back – is what they are suggesting really that outrageous?
I’d say that my hatred of Johnson and the Uk government is due to their incompetence in dealing with covid (oh and a little matter of the other thing 🤪). The UK is certainly world beating in covid terms due to their dealings (just not in a good way).
The outrageous thing is that they are driven by political ideology not public health concerns.
I’m not aware of anyone on here arguing against relaxation of all anti-covid measures, just the abandonment of all measures at a time when the infection rates are rising exponentially. A view echoed by a seamingly unanimous worldwide informed scientific community.
It’s not our scientists that are stuck in the Middle Ages, just our government.
No-one is saying not to bother. I get why many are in favour of (and personally I agree / don’t understand why it’s not being kept as a legal mandate). But messaging is clear even if the law isn’t.
Eh?
Business minister Paul Scully said on the radio this morning
It’s important to understand the rules. You have to legally isolate if you are on the ... contacted by test and trace, or if you’re trying to claim isolation payments.
The app is there to give ... to allow you to make informed decisions. And I think by backing out of mandating a lot of things, we’re encouraging people to really get the data in their own hands to be able to make decisions on what’s best for them, whether they’re employer or an employee.
While his department has been saying this
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1417384412635881478?s=19
2hrs later No10 has directly contradicted them
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1417414182937546753?s=19
I'll hold my hand up, I can't stand Johnson
If you think this is clear messaging & I'm just blinkered tho...?
You are trying to claim that the 3 wise men are in favour of this
Nope. Just wondering why they aren't vehemently against.
And I was speaking about clear messaging on masks, agree that elsewhere it's a dog's breakfast
Nope. Just wondering why they aren’t vehemently against.
IMO ( and thats all it is) Is that they would rather retain some influence to nudge Johnson in the right direction and to mitigate the harm. So they don't resign which is their only option
The messaging on masks is not clear its effectively " we think you should but you don't have to"
I really hope Sturgeon, Drakesford and whoever is in charge in NI find some way to close the borders with england to all non essential traffic and the rest of the world just closes its borders with england
The US has put the UK on its most restrictive list IIRC
we think you should but you don’t have to
Is pretty clear to me.
You can argue that it should be mandated by law, personally I'd agree. You can also argue it's political dogma, or dereliction of duty, or pandering to the populist opinion, as opposed to science driven. I'd probably agree, although if that decision didn't have some nuance (maybe as TJ says having some influence i.o none; maybe there's behavioural science that says nudge and suggestion is likely to be more effective now after all this time.... I don't know) I think there would be stronger rejection from within the advisors.
But they can perfectly well say they strongly recommend something without making it law.
- smoking
- being overweight
- pedestrians crossing when the man's not green
- even (dare I!) wearing a helmet when cycling
The message is clear. It's no longer the law but we still think you should.
University Hospitals of Leicester (UHL) has just put out a notice saying they are at 'Opel 4' which is their highest level of alert.
They are looking at all the now familiar measures to cope with a government-caused shitshow including:
Cancelling non-essential operations.
Roping clinically trained staff currently in non-clinical roles into clinical work.
Reducing non-clinical activities (eg meetings etc) so non-clinical space can potentially be used for minor injuries etc.
Strap yourselves in, folks, and hold on. This is going to be a shitshow with potentially deadly consequences for many. This 'government' is rolling the dice with other people's lives. Just like the bombastic cowards they are.
You can argue that it should be mandated by law, personally I’d agree.
What would be the consequense of making the non-mandatory app have a mandatory by law isolation?
Many people are already deleting it, by putting the message out that it is a tool to be used as part of your own personal risk assessment, you will acheive some benefit.
Yes many people will slip through the net (or rather, stroll right past the net with no mask on), but it is still better than nothing.
Outside the "clear message" bubble... mask wearing is over. Other half has just got back from a school performance by her old year group where not a single parent in attendance was wearing a mask. Why would they? For weeks now they've been told you won't need to from this week. Some stronger wording delivered by scientists they've never heard at 5pm on the BBC news channel, while they're still out at work, is never going to cut though.
Some stronger wording delivered by scientists they’ve never heard at 5pm on the BBC news channel, while they’re still out at work, is never going to cut though.
I don't believe many haven't heard of Vallance, Whitty or Van Tam, or that because they didn't see the presser live they aren't aware of it. Whether they pay any real attention to it / them....depends who they are, I guess, but as this place makes us all aware, positions become very entrenched and if the science team are saying something different to what they want to hear, just ignore it. Both ways.
So again, why are the scientists allowing this to happen?
TJ's given me a theory and others keep saying it's a political decision, but if it is such a bad decision why aren't the advisors absolutely saying so?
I don't get it. I don't believe their jobs are that valuable against their other potential non-Gov careers and/or the moral problem of having facilitated a load of avoidable deaths, if the consensus is correct. I don't believe they are being threatened by kompromat or anything conspiracy like that. I just don't get it.......
Unless, it's not such a terrible decision as everyone is making out.
I think it’s hatred of Johnson and the Government that is causing some blinkered thinking here. Take a step back – is what they are suggesting really that outrageous?
Not at all.
He's a lovely man, and so are his friends, but he's got this very wrong.
So have you.
I just don’t get it…
We need them to hang on in there. And keep advising the government. Even when the (non)policy doesn’t follow their advice at any particular time. Don’t you think? We’re not at the end point yet.
So have you.
I don't think I have because I am absolutely behind mandated mask wearing, slowing the removal of restrictions, and increasing the vax program to the U18's.
I just don't get why these senior scientists are allowing it to happen on their watch. And that makes me wonder if I'm missing something.
I don't support them blindly, but up till now I trust their judgement - and the fact it is counter to consensus and my own instinct doesn't make me suddenly think they're now to be lumped in with covid deniers and militant right wingers or however they were labelled earlier. It makes me ask WHY - what do they know / understand that I don't?
We need them to hang on in there. And keep advising the government. Even when the (non)policy doesn’t follow their advice at any particular time. Don’t you think? We’re not at the end point yet.
But if the policy is so counter to common sense and consensus and not sticking heels in will cause thousands of avoidable deaths, I can't get my head round them allowing it.
or however they were labelled earlier
You’re misquoting. I think it was claimed that Johnson is setting policy to please his libertarian MPs (and his own instincts, despite them being proven to be dangerous time and time again since we first heard about this virus) rather than properly reflecting on the advice given.
I just don’t get it
Because if they stay in there they can have some influence. If they leave they have none and if yo think anyone but a tiny minority of folk have heard of them then thats crackers.
Its the Same a/s Fauci and Blix in the US. the choice is stay in there and try to mitigate the dangerous shit coming out of |JOhnson and co of leave and let the dangerous shit go unchallenged thus the public would get even worse advice
You're misquoting
quote was:
=No one but the tory cabinet and covid deniers / hard right libertarians think this is a good move
and yet they are facilitating it. OK, if you want to be pedantic maybe they don't think it's a good move, but it's not such a bad move that they'd take a stand over it.
covid deniers / hard right libertarians think this is a good move
That describes the Tory MPs that threatened to vote against any further extension of powers to mandate mask wearing absolutely perfectly.
but it’s not such a bad move that they’d take a stand over it
You keep saying that. But how would resigning help anyone? Last Monday they bounced Johnson hard, on camera, into supporting the mask wearing message. This Monday all the messaging was coming from them (for those paying attention). Even that messaging, contrary to the changes in the policy and law, could well have been missing without them there. They have worked hard to try and stop "you don't have to wear a mask" turning into "there's now no need to wear a mask"... and for many people, hopefully, that message will have sunk in. They can't and won't reach everyone though... but we're better off with them in there trying, than not there at all.
I just don’t get why these senior scientists are allowing it to happen on their watch. And that makes me wonder if I’m missing something.
I'm in this camp, and was/am allowing my natural anxiety to fuel a worry. I usually get a lot of calm from Whitty so I too am confused.
I think it’s hatred of Johnson
It definitely is on my part. I've never been and am still not politically aware or motivated, but the very character of the man makes him one of the only people I'd happily punch in the face right now. All I see is a liar, a bigot and moving toward a dictator or public rights and movement bringing huge damage to our county.
theotherjonv
do you really think the three scientists think this a good move? Or is it just as good as they could push Johnson to?
It might be handy for you to read up on Fauci and why he stayed alongside trump
if yo think anyone but a tiny minority of folk have heard of them then thats crackers.
You're crackers if you think after they've been on TV every day for months through last year that only a tiny minority of people have heard of them.
Why would I listen to any of your opinions when you come up with crap like that 😉
Just to echo Dannyh, my Mrs works in the NHS and her hospital is now cancelling all routine appointments, offering unlimited overtime and giving staff the opportunity to sell (yes, sell!) their annual leave. So whatever the political or other reasons, the threat of overwhelming the NHS is still very real. Refusing to mandate some simple, longer term restrictions seems nuts to me and I really hope it doesn't bite us all in the backside come September/October.
To set the full context, the whole quote (by TJ):
This strategy risks creating a generation left with chronic health problems and disability, the personal and economic impacts of which might be felt for decades to come,” scientists said in an open letter published in The Lancet medical journal, co-signed by over 1,200 doctors.
“We believe the (U.K.) government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment,” the letter said.
etc etc
=No one but the tory cabinet and covid deniers / hard right libertarians think this is a good move
Nothing whatsoever about the ERG in their new guise in the quote or context. Just suggesting that anyone vaguely supportive of, or said differently not 100% against this, is a covid denier / hard right libertarian.
@TJ, no, for the 10th time, I don't think they are saying it's a good move, just that it's not a dreadful one either.
Re Fauci - yes, I'm aware he was wary of being replaced by a political yes man. But he also had the safety net of there very likely being regime change coming.
OK I accept that by staying CW/PV/JVT can continue to influence from the inside, but even then I can't quite fathom why they are not even more vocally against. I hate to bring the Nuremburg thing up again, but there are those that commissioned the atrocities, those that 'only followed orders' and those that knew what was happening and didn't make any attempt stop it. All are complicit in the outcome.
Unless - maybe it really isn't as dreadful as people think it is.
Just suggesting that anyone vaguely supportive of, or said differently not 100% against this, is a covid denier / hard right libertarian.
does not equal
No one but the tory cabinet and covid deniers / hard right libertarians think this is a good move
don't put words in peoples mouth then use that to enhance your arguement. I meant exactly what I said. the only people who think this is a GOOD move not anyone who is not protesting loudly.
I can’t quite fathom why they are not even more vocally against
Because they would be sacked and lose all influence
