The “if not now when” argument only holds water if you are giving up on the vaccination programme. Otherwise, delaying to vaccinate more people saves lives and the health of a great many people.
I disagree, the balance is more time for vaccination vs controlled transmission now - more outdoor settings, etc, and when the NHS is better placed to cope before the winter rush. It is a balance but it's not black and white.
Like i said, i can't quite sort out that this isn't an error but i have to trust the three wise men.
Time will tell.
Check out brexiter/antimask/gbnews Twitter
Vaccine passports are apparently the work of the devil, hitler, communists....
It's bonkers and these guys were big Johnson fans 😂
controlled transmission now
How will it best be controlled? By policy, or by blabbering that people should be “careful”? Decisions made now reduce the options later. Deliberately allowing very high prevalence ahead of finishing the vaccination programme means that if admissions get out of control, or new variants spread unchecked, we will not be able to use relatively low cost and low impact measures to get a hold of things again. Policy will be back. And it will be late. And more draconian than it needed have been. October would be my bet.
Daughter has tested positive as have several of her school friends. Misses and I are double jabbed and so far are symptom free.
Assuming we don’t get ill will our exposure to presumably the delta variant strengthen our immunity and act as a booster, or do you have to actually get ill with covid to bolster your immunity?
Must have jinxed myself, now have a headache and nausea.
How will it best be controlled? By policy, or by blabbering that people should be “careful”?
You may be right. I worry that you will be.
I'm not espousing the theory that what we are doing is right, just trying to present the other side of the argument to show that there is another side, and one that is 'supported' by three guys I have the utmost respect for. At least, they aren't dead against it, and that to me says it has some merits even if I don't necessarily see them.
Don't shoot the messenger, I've always erred on cautiously optimistic and this is testing that belief. But I can also see a reason to test it.
BTW the More or Less special episode is worth a listen on Sounds.
I posted the More or Less link this morning before it aired. They very much supported @TiRed ‘s view that teens aren’t being offered vaccinations now because we don’t have enough Pfizer.
You posted the link but I wasn't sure if you'd listened to it as there was a fair and balanced discussion on making the decision now vs later, which you seem to have discarded in your thinking. 0315 - on / James Ward.
You're against it, I get that, but there is a rationale and a discussion to be had.
I understand the rationale. I consider it to be the wrong decision. Bear in mind we would already have had a huge number of cases this summer WITHOUT removing the lower impact measures such as mask wearing. It is the wrong decision to remove mandated mask wearing. Keeping it would not have stopped this wave, it would have reduced the peak and bought us time to vaccinate more people. And, if the “unexpected” happens, and we create a new more dangerous variant, when we have reduced measures and very high prevalence to the extent that test/track/isolate is completely dead in the water, it could spread in a way that forces lock down upon us once detected. Utterly fed up of long “lockdowns” caused by political abstention of duty. Another one would be devastating for our battered education system, and those in it.
You haven’t included being right in the list of options? Are you so convinced they aren’t?
Damn right I am convinced its the wrong decision. Its so obviously incorrect. yes relax things a bit but removing all restrictions including mask wearing is just stupid. scientific consensus is clearly against it worldwide
We can see the rates of infections taking off, hospitals are already cancelling operations etc
Its an utter disaster
Which is fair. If I was my choice I'd say it was wrong too. But I also am not as smart as the big three, and I have to put my faith in them.
The bit we can't waver on, is that if it turns out to be a bad decision, let's say so and act. Without complaining about u-turns, or told-you-so. Yes, it is a gamble, but the crime would be to then dogmatically stick to it IF it turns out to be wrong. If a future lockdown is needed, it should be called, and deal with the consequence.
TJ - if I may say, in recent times (and I know times are hard) you are being quite aggressive in your opinions. This and other threads. It's a side I don't really like from you.
It's not as clear cut as you say.
Listen to More or Less. Read what Whitty, Vallance, Van Tam have to say. It's not obvious. It's a gamble for sure, but if it's obvious why are they supporting it?
Read what Whitty, Vallance, Van Tam have to say.
They have said that we should slowly and carefully change behaviour. Policy should reflect that. They have said that we should continue to use masks on public transport and crowded indoor spaces. Policy should reflect that. Johnson is setting (the lack of) policy and not them.
They have said that we should slowly and carefully change behaviour.
Our local had a freedom party tonight. The place was heaving as I drove past. Live band, was packed. Def not slow and careful.
I've been trying to find out online, but I figured someone here could probably direct me more easily, what are the hospitalisation rates currently for kids in the UK? Mini 10 heads to kindergarten next month, and we're at zero restrictions in schools for it here, no masks, no distancing, no testing, probably no hope of avoiding the situation in the UK.
theotherjonv
Full MemberListen to More or Less. Read what Whitty, Vallance, Van Tam have to say. It’s not obvious. It’s a gamble for sure, but if it’s obvious why are they supporting it?
Whitty especially is making statements that are counter to government policy. So frankly is the prime minister.
78 new cases in NSW today - 27 of whom were "infections in the community" which is basically how we are measuring the effectiveness of track/trace. That number has been hovering around 30 for the past week or so now, and is stubbornly refusing to come down - hence the increased restrictions.
Just got back from the vaccination centre - now double jabbed with the "premium" pfizer vaccine!
The boomers at the next nurse-station over were kicking up a fuss at only being allowed to have the AZ vaccine rather that the Pf one.... despite having already had the first dose of AZ. The nurse and his supervisor were being very polite/patient, and it took all my self control not to step across and explain it to them a bit more concisely. To say that the Australian government had failed in it's public information efforts is an understatement.
I feel like Australia is going to go the way of the US: Once everybody has been given the opportunity to have the jab, open back up. Let those who have "done their own research" on the internet deal with the consequences of their decisions. That is, of course having waited and observed what happens in the US with that approach, the UK also providing a useful data-point.
Whitty especially is making statements that are counter to government policy. So frankly is the prime minister.
Blink twice if your being held against your will 🙂
It’s a very odd situation replacing ‘rules’ with ‘advice’ in a pandemic and the whole farce over nightclub’s needing covid passports in x months seems insane to announce on the day that you decided anything now goes when your advisors are attempting to advise the other way.
It was a very bizarre thing to watch, with the covid case’s rising every day.
I'm tending towards theotherjonv's point of view here, but the messaging from the government and their advisors doesn't support the changes in rules/policy which totally undermines the approach.
It seems likely that having the infection bounce now is better than having it in winter. There will probably never be 0 Covid deaths, in the same way that there are always going to be deaths from asthma, or car crashes.
But removing all restrictions does seem likely to make that bounce far worse than it needs to be, with tragic consequences for maybe a lot more than was necessary.
whole farce over nightclub’s needing covid passports in x months seems insane to announce on the day that you decided anything now goes when your advisors are attempting to advise the other way.
Those under 30 who havent booked up yet had a chance to do so. I'm assuming the government thought the uptake would be stronger.
About a 3rd haven't taking it up but they'd already pencilled in the 19th and couldn't back down (dates not data) so they're using a carrot on a stick approach now and it'd be unfair to implement straight away when the younger crowd haven't had a chance to have both jabs.
I suspect they're hoping for a Scotland style drop due to schools in the interim to save them despite nightclubs etc being open fully and then by end of Sept most 18 to 30s would have had both jabs and hopefully that just stops the spread to just schools.
On the note of under 18s its a huge ethical debate. How can we justify jabbing under 18s when the rest of the world is hardly vaccinated at all. I'm on the side of jabbing the kids but I can see the wider argument.
On the note of under 18s its a huge ethical debate. How can we justify jabbing under 18s when the rest of the world is hardly vaccinated at all. I’m on the side of jabbing the kids but I can see the wider argument.
How can we justify denying them the jab, when their slightly older peers in this country, and those the same age as them in all similarly economically advanced countries, are allowed to have it?
If the truth is that we are simply delaying offering it to them due to all to the current remaining Pfizer supply being required for 18-40 second jabs… then government should be open and tell us that.
I fully expect the list of conditions that qualify teens for vaccination to expand once enough of the next (August/September?) batch of Pfizer starts arriving. The current list is very proscriptive, and must presumably be a starting point.
If we don’t have the supplies yet to carry the vaccination programme closer towards herd immunity, we should not be hanging teens and their families (and those who can’t be vaccinated, and those still at risk even after vaccination, and NHS staff) out to dry with a big bang herd immunity by infection plan, we should continue to use some other measures (by policy not pleading for people to be careful) to control the virus. See all the UK countries except England for what that might look like.
This was our household last week. Both double jabbed. I still ended up getting it and was pretty ill for a couple of days and crap for a week. Delta variant going off the symptoms although I still also lost taste and smell.
Well, after 16 months of being damned careful etc, Mrs Fazzini and Fazzini-Jnr-Jnr, are both unwell and both tested positive last night. I'm not feeling terrific (I'm also asthmatic), but tested negative as did Fazzini-Jnr-Snr. Mrs Fazzini and I are both double AZ jabbed.
All booked in for PCR tests as I'm classed as a 'key worker', (I'd dispute that but that's what the company and govt say), although I can work from home most of the time.
We have done nothing different to what we've been doing over the last year and a bit, so I guess it was just 'our turn' maybe? We'll have to see if it behaves just like a 'cold' etc. Still a worry.
Let those who have “done their own research” on the internet deal with the consequences of their decisions.
The consequences tend to affect other people, though.
point taken theotherjonv
but - there has been a huge outcry with WHO protesting the english ending of restictions and numerous scientist not attached to the government decrying it
Also in Scotland with falling rate ( unlike england) continues with some restictions
The international outcry about what england is doing persuades me its a really stupid course of action
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/freedom-day-uk-covid-restrictions-england/
"
This strategy risks creating a generation left with chronic health problems and disability, the personal and economic impacts of which might be felt for decades to come," scientists said in an open letter published in The Lancet medical journal, co-signed by over 1,200 doctors.
"We believe the (U.K.) government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment," the letter said.
etc etc
=No one but the tory cabinet and covid deniers / hard right libertarians think this is a good move
The three stooges are caught in the same position as Fauci and Blix in the US
They have said that we should slowly and carefully change behaviour
6 feet-deep in doublespeak. As ever. What is Johnson’s end goal? Some kind of experiment/scorched earth/??
and those the same age as them in all similarly economically advanced countries, are allowed to have it?
Why are teens in economically advanced countries (who are less likely to be seriously ill) more important than pretty much everyone else in less developed countries, who are presumably just as likely to develop a new variant from high infection rates?
Slight Devils advocate there, selfishly I'd like my kids to be jabbed as they are musicians and can't afford any lung damage.
Also do you not think its right to be angry about the killing of tens of thousands of citizens through contempt for science, incompetence and dithering?
Hospitals and ICUs are filling up fast and cancelling routine work again to make space for those with covid
Why are teens in economically advanced countries (who are less likely to be seriously ill) more important than pretty much everyone else in less developed countries
I don’t think they are. I don’t think the UK is doing as much as it could to increase vaccine production for the countries most in need of it (dragging its heels on vaccine patent waivers for example). It can and should step up to the plate more home and abroad.
You’re giving an ethical defence of a policy that sounds in reality to be based more on the prosaic detail of us just not having enough Pfizer in the UK over the next few weeks (or so others say) to offer it to under 18 teens (although some others say that is already happening in some regions).
What is Johnson’s end goal, is my question?
Johnsons end goal is whatever is best for Johnson. Nothing or nobody else is of any consequence.
All this 'Freedom Day' bollocks is the result of his usual cowardice. He is a man totally devoid of principles or a spine, who simply takes the path of least resistance to make his own like easier.
This generally involves caving in to the noisiest faction, which for the last few years has been the hard-right, Brexiteer, ERG, ultra-libertarian nut-jobs in his own party. So, once again, they've got everything they wanted, like the petulant toddlers that they are.
If you want an insight into who's presently got the ear of the PM, and the way he's thinking, then Tory Lord Sumption was on Radio 4 this morning. Again he was claiming that only a couple of hundred people have actually died of Covid. That all those other tens of thousands would have died anyway. He claims that there never should have been any lockdowns.
It's terrifying to realise that these are the people presently driving policy. These are Johnsons base. The ones he endlessly panders too. We know from what Cummings is saying, that Johnson shares many of these opinions. He still doesn't think there should have been any lockdowns, either.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1417242729562652672?s=20
The consequences tend to affect other people, though
That lancet letter..
Third, preliminary modelling data9 suggest the government's strategy provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants. This would place all at risk, including those already vaccinated, within the UK and globally.
Er vaccination world leading something something, vaccination.
We’ve seen that once this stuff gets out the box there’s no easy getting it back in and don’t forget the Delta came about as the number one U.K. favourite due to the clowns not stopping it being imported from India.
It's fine to be angry, but I don't think it's as clear cut as being made out. I've always been keen to have the debate on here and personally have tried to be patient with even the (borderline) deniers and trolls. I'm just pointing out that these are not crackpots that are suggesting now's a good time, these are very respected people and just because others are not doing the same does not mean what is being done is wrong.
I've said, I'll say again, this feels like an error to me but I don't know as much as the senior science team that are directing or allowing this. To turn on them now and label them as 'three stooges' or 'wasn't that the Nuremburg defence?' because they haven't resigned is pretty poor, IMHO, when there is a possibility that they may be right.
There are pro's and con's to both continued lockdown while vaccinations increase, or take the chance of opening while prevailing seasons and whatever are with us, and a debate to be had, not yelled down. It's not clearly wrong because others are not doing it - that way of thinking would have the sun circling around the earth and the map being flat, that was what was believed by 'everyone' back then.
Continued lockdown?!? We’re talking about policy setting mask wearing rules and a slow release of the few social distancing measures that were still in place.
I simply disagree - and the nuremberg comment was not mine and its not a parallel.
they have the choice to remain attempting to influence Johnson or resign and have no influence like Fauci and Blix in the US
When the consensus in the scientific and medical community outside government is clearly against government policy and when you can see the three of them are uncomfortable with government policy and are subtly contradicting Johnson then its absolutely clear. when the international consensus is entirely opposite to Johnsons then again - its completely clear
You are making a false equivalence comparison. Johnson's view does not have equivalence with WHO, BMA etc
We have never had a proper lockdown in the UK and I amnot arguing for one. I am arguing that is clearly the wrong move to stop all restrictions. mask wearing in particular should remain as should the ban of large gatherings especially indoor
Re the offer of a hug.
You're more than welcome dude. I feel it only fair to inform you, though, that we are now on day 10 of isolation after my daughter caught covid in the last week of term. The policy of letting covid rip in schools was a doozy from our point of view. Luckily my daughter is fine and the rest of us appear to be negative - although we'll be doing one last Xmas cracker LF test today to be 'sure'.
My wife managed 15 months, day-in, day-out patient facing in the NHS without having to isolate or catching covid.
Whilst she has been unable to go to work the xray tube has packed up at the hospital she works at, so patients will have to be booked onto another hospital's list. Yesterday saw a massive spike in people needing xrays. Probably for injuries they've been carrying for some time. But now Freedom Day has come (and more people will be expected to go back to work) it seems the Great British public have found lots of ailments to be off work with.
See also every bank holiday weekend ever - injury sustained whilst pissed on the Saturday night. Sun-Mon continued on the piss. Tuesday wake up for 'work' and suddenly realise they 'need' an xray.
I'm only mildly annoyed in any case...
🥰
whole farce over nightclub’s needing covid passports in x months seems insane to announce on the day that you decided anything now goes when your advisors are attempting to advise the other way.
Those under 30 who havent booked up yet had a chance to do so. I’m assuming the government thought the uptake would be stronger.
About a 3rd haven’t taking it up but they’d already pencilled in the 19th and couldn’t back down (dates not data) so they’re using a carrot on a stick approach now and it’d be unfair to implement straight away when the younger crowd haven’t had a chance to have both jabs.
Yup, it’s arguably a very clumsy carrot dangle though. It could look more like an unwelcome stick to those that are yet to be convinced by the evidence of vaccines.
https://twitter.com/reicherstephen/status/1417384104400674821?s=21
Anyway, we’ll all be distracted by stories of people with dark skin crossing the English Channel this summer. It’s a sure fire way to get us ignoring the government’s pandemic policies (and the steady flow of small business failures as the next round of changes to our trading relationship with the rest of Europe kick in).
Third, preliminary modelling data9 suggest the government’s strategy provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants.
This is my main concern. UK has a large proportion of the world's entire Covid case numbers right now, and the WHO is absolutely correct to be alarmed by potential exports from our national variant incubator.
Frankly, though, we are now in a no-win situation. Any levers the government had to mitigate this wave were months back. Even a full national lockdown (which would be poorly observed) wouldn't really deaden it, merely shunt it further into the new school year.
We're approaching the top of the rollercoaster, and the safety bar has come undone. Hold on tight.
Everything is just the pirate code now
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1417384412635881478?s=19
I did not mean to specifically accuse you, but others took your comments and Nuremburg'ed them.
You did also say "No one but the tory cabinet and covid deniers / hard right libertarians think this is a good move" and that is not the case. There are reasonable scientists that see this as very nuanced - I urge again to listen to More or Less for a balanced view, or are they are Hard right / Covid deniers too?
And I say it again. Instinctively this feels daft, but there's enough doubt in me to want to debate it. Not shut it down. If it was a binary issue and I had to put a chip down right now I'd say this is wrong, on balance the consensus vs the English moves is as you say pretty heavily on one side. But it's not 100% in my mind at least.
Don't shoot the messenger wanting to explore the periphery of consensus.
(and yes, lazy use of lockdown, I mean continued restrictions. Sorry. And absolutely I think doing both - opening more up while taking perfectly reasonable / non intrusive steps in the meantime is clearly an option. Look back at my record on here if you want, I am strongly pro- continued mask use, even if it does make me a muzzled bedwetter)
ok theotherjonv thats your view.
to me its obviously and clearly wrong and the vast weight of real science says so. thats my view and until the scientific and medical consensus changes then then I stick with that.
this is not really the place to argue about this however as this thread has been an extremely good source of info and its a shame if it gets lost in argument
Want to give me the names of " reasonable scientists that see this as very nuanced"?
I've thought from the beginning (Feb 2020) that this was a horrible problem with no 'good' answers, only a set of unpalatable options. Which of those options is least worst? Impossible to say except in hindsight. So those responsible for setting public policy had my sympathy. No longer. Their pathetic attempts to dodge any responsibility, their lack of planning, withholding of data, their refusal to level with us and their ability to only tell the truth by accident have destroyed any right they might have had to sympathy.
So here we are again, at a decision point with a set of unpleasant options. Have the government learned anything from the last 18 months? It seems not. So they will continue to play to their base, and then back away from their decisions when it becomes obvious that their base is actually a minority. In the meantime, more people will die or be seriously affected who didn't need to be, and they still won't get the economic benefits they want.
”reasonable scientists that see this as very nuanced”?
And not "a wave now rather than the winter is best", we understand that discussion... but reasonable scientists who say either "mask wearing can end now, while cases are high and on the increase and only about half the population are fully vaccinated", or "mask wearing should continue for now, but doesn't need to be backed by government policy or law, we can leave it to customer facing staff to deal with".
Prof Tim Spector, Epidimiologist at KCL
James Ward, modeller interviewed on More or Less
Large parts of the US have lifted restrictions without an apparent massive rise in problems/deaths/mutant escapes (although duly noted that they do have a lot of U18's vaccinated too)
Again. I'm not saying I support the total removal of all restrictions, just that there's a debate to be had.
The US are about to find themselves in a lot of bother with Delta IMO.
France and the US look to be on a very similar trend in cases about a month behind us. Not looking good for either of them unless they can ramp up vaccination fast. 😟
Gf's primary has about 50% attendance now due to cases, isolation due to contacts, before and after school clubs closed, and staff isolating.
Both the most recent 'more or less' are worth a listen and are under 10 minutes each. Stick it on while you're doing the washing up.
12-15s are not being vaccinated on JCVI advice.
There are two separate arguments in play - one about past relaxation policy, which is less relevant at this point because the time to greatly reduce the size of this wave has passed. Mask mandates would be helpful on an individual level, but are only a marginal lever at this point on the curve. We are also well beyond the point where even a working trace system would be useful.
The second argument is about whether you try to flatten (and extend) the curve on this occasion, or allow it to spike as soon as possible in order to try to position us in a quieter covid period during the winter months, and allow the booster jab programme to proceed in September/October. This relies on a number of assumptions:
a) that the relationship between cases and hospitalisations is sufficiently weakened to mean that demand on the NHS in August can be handled.
b) that the sheer volume of cases does not lead to a more vaccine-resistant strain which would peak over winter anyhow with significant mortality.
Either of those assumptions failing would then require full lockdown to return, sooner, or later.
The only mitigation which would even flatten this wave from now on is full lockdown. The government's handling of previous lockdowns has made this a toxic option which is only employed when there is significant mortality already baked in.
so we have remarkably avoided any need to self isolate so far, thats with one primary and one secondary child. Middle of last week a number of pupils were sent home from secondary aged sons year, some positive some close contacts, some positive from pupils in some of his classes, he was not sent home to isolate. He tested positive on LF Sunday and PCR yesterday, unwell over the weekend and now coughing away. As a runner I hope this is as bad as it gets for him. Wife and I double jabbed, rest of us negative on PCR. Hoping that the rest of the family can avoid catching it and he makes a speedy recovery. Not a wonderful start to the holidays, but it could be worse, and just hoping we don't end up with extended isolation periods due to the rest of us catching it in a staggered way.
Unfortunately I can see this is going to drag on for many more months yet as the gov continue with there weak leadership, messaging and governance of the country.
