Unless I'm very much mistaken, cases and deaths are both not merely higher than last Sunday, but also higher than the Sunday before that. I think it's very optimistic to claim confidently that R<1, as SAGE did just two days ago. In fact, even though R<1 is possible, I don't see how they can possibly justify their estimate of 0.7-0.9.
Wise not to compare single days in that way… not that I disagree with your concerns at all.
It's transmitted down the phone! 😱
Imagine being the track and trace person who phoned someone's mobile and heard it ring somewhere in their office. Interesting to think of 7 cases as a cluster, compared to Leicester where even now it's running at I think about 40 cases a day, more than the whole country...
MoreCashThanDash
SubscriberIt’s transmitted down the phone!
This is what happens if you send all your telephone sanitisers away on the B Ark.
This is what happens if you send all your telephone sanitisers away on the B Ark.
🙂
weekend numbers are so low as to be pointless, but the tue-sat cumulative deaths is still dropping week on week. Cases is definitely flat not dropping anymore.
As I said a few days ago, sadly cases are rising In the U.K. and this is a trend across Europe. Reported numbers are small for some countries, but on a log scale, the deceleration and flattening is consistent across countries. I’m not a fan of R, other than to say it’s >1. Deaths are so low on some countries that the trend is harder to discern, there also appears to be perhaps a slightly longer lag than previously noted to cases.
The steepness of that initial epidemic is still breathtaking when I look at it now. Doubling time was n the US is much longer now - about a week.
U.K. deaths modelled with some fun stats
I agree re kelvin's comment above on dangers of single day comparisons but the recent trend as TiReD says is also flat to up. I also look at the direct 7 day difference as a quick and easy comparison as this takes out the weekly cycle but is of course quite noisy.
It’s transmitted down the phone! 😱
Didnt think 5G was working yet.
I see France has made wearing masks mandatory with fines for non compliance. Does that mean you can now get fined for both wearing and not wearing a face covering, if you're a Muslim at least?
Surely the ONLYway to get on top of this is to be actively community testing “at risk” people and finding the asymptomatic ones early. We are only using half our testing capacity, so it’s possible.
Ok time for some good news. The university of Southampton with a biotech company called SynAirGen (who’s shares just climbed 360%) have been testing inhaled interferon as a means of preventing severe COVID19. They’ve just reported an 80%, yes 80% reduction in severe cases.
That’s what a proper antiviral can do. As I have said since the beginning, remdesivir is not an antiviral at the doses tested. Synairgen needed 400 patients (just) for their trial, Gilead are using 10x this number to detect a much smaller effect.
Now that IS good news. An ability to reduce the CFR by 80%.
Would that also stop minor cases becoming worse, keeping people out of ICU?
Yes. They are now looking at home nebuliser use in a trial of early treatment. The important part is that some translational biology shows a 3-4 log10 drop in viral replication is possible with interferon. That’s translated into benefit in patients. Other drugs that achieve the same reductions should have the same effect. Remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine cannot achieve such falls at any administratrable doses.
So what about the people who received a placebo in the trials... how does that work?
Doctor: Hi Patient Here you go.. here's a medicine that may well save your life but it might be a placebo and you could still die.
But the point of the trial is to see if the drug is effective. They don't know whether it is when they start the trial, conceivably it might have made things worse. You have to have palcebos to do a proper trial.
Doctor: Hi Patient Here you go.. here’s a medicine that may well save your life but it might be a placebo and you could still die.
Yep, that's how medical trials work once it gets to the sharp pointy end.
Looks like the vacine works as well..a double bit of good news for today!
Normally one conducts an independent interim analysis at regular stages to assess whether one should stop because the drug doesn’t work, or joy, there is overwhelming evidence it does! The latter is uncommon - they haven’t said that this was a formal interim analysis, but based on size and recruitment, it may have been.
Early Oncology trials are normally “open label”. Everyone get treatment. Confirmatory trials are against “standard of care” - current best treatment. SOC changes all the time as new treatments become available. In other diseases, placebo is often now unethical too (MS for example).
If football was a clinical trial, Liverpool would never have won the Champions League. I mean, 3-0 down at half time...
Those are the rules of the game I play.
Surley seasonal Flu will be at its lowest levels for like, ever. Social distancing, lack of mass gatherings, extra hygene routines should all help to keep it at very low levels.
Now, if only I could buy an interferon nebuliser I could persuade my wife it’s safe for our Greek sailing holiday!!
I can’t see any differentiation from injected interferon beta. The lung concentrations that inhibit viral replication look achievable and the drug is already approved. I wondered at the time whether MS patients might be protected. Unfortunately long acting interferon beta isn’t approved and the alpha isn’t as potent.
It does show up remdesivir though for what it really is - mildly active.
Surley seasonal Flu will be at its lowest levels for like, ever. Social distancing, lack of mass gatherings, extra hygene routines should all help to keep it at very low levels.
The only forced social distancing I see these days is queuing for the cafe or supermarkets or some other shop type and lack of large events etc.
Earlier today at an NT property we visited we queued nicely spaced out outside for the cafe, as soon as you're inside there wasnt any social distancing, grabbing food and standing face to face with the staff.
Yesterday went to a restaurant and other than no cutlery on the table social distancing wasn't followed. (No face masks etc)
Not that I'm saying I'm annoyed about any of it nor am I religiously adhering to it but to say its happening is a lie these days, we know full well we're spending time with family and not adhering to the 1m plus rules. Social media is rife with it people showing off their naughty antics.
Question for those that follow these things - I've now seen 3 'British breakthrough' type reports - two relating to treatment and now the Oxford vaccine. I can't recall seeing many reports of similar breakthroughs being achieved elsewhere. Is that a fair reflection of the facts (ie UK is actually good at science) or is it just our national media not reporting that the French, Germans, USA etc have done some amazing stuff
BBC report I'm currently reading mentions others...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53469839
Valneva, BioNtech/Pfizer & Moderna are named... and ...
In total there are 23 coronavirus vaccines in clinical trials around the world and another 140 in early stage develoment.
Not that I’m saying I’m annoyed about any of it nor am I religiously adhering to it but to say its happening is a lie these days, we know full well we’re spending time with family and not adhering to the 1m plus rules. Social media is rife with it people showing off their naughty antics.
I was on the ferry back from Stornoway yesterday...
They're only taking 50% of passengers.
Everyone has to wear a mask at all times on board.
No catering/shop available, so bring your own (mask down to eat obviously).
Every second seat taped off to enforce distancing.
Lots of "please leave 1 metre" signs and a tannoy saying "leave 2m when you can" and "wash hands regularly"
Lots of sanitizer bottles around.
While we are waiting on the car deck to disembark, one of the staff strikes up a conversation with the driver of a SUV. Just as the ramp is lowering and the guy is about to drive off, the sailor removes one of his big work gloves and shakes the driver by the hand.
In total there are 23 coronavirus vaccines in clinical trials around the world and another 140 in early stage develoment.
OK I should've been more specific - the hunt for a vaccine has been global from the start, but I was more focussing on the likes of the interferon results reported today and remdesivir a few weeks back. I'd assume there are similar steps being made elsewhere but don't recall hearing much about them.
Was in Scotland back end of last week, and there's a noticeably greater level of both acceptance of mask wearing, and trying to heed SD rules than south of the border.
The interferon trial is a little left-field from a small biotech who’ve been in the game for years looking at asthma and COPD. Remdesivir is being tested in a 4000 patient registration trial by the US owners, Gilead.
Big trials are generally done by big pharma - because they are very expensive to run (50k/patient is not an unreasonable figure). The exceptions are the NHS COVID RECOVERY trial (testing generics) and the big “platform” trials where multiple treatments are to be tested. Governments are funding those trials with companies providing the drugs.
Ok time for some good news. The university of Southampton with a biotech company called SynAirGen (who’s shares just climbed 360%) have been testing inhaled interferon as a means of preventing severe COVID19. They’ve just reported an 80%, yes 80% reduction in severe cases.
Good news indeed. But now can we expect Trump to buy up the world supply of it as he did with Remdesivir.
My thoughts about much of the press coverage of the ongoing advances…
[in summary, are we that much better than Trump really?]
https://twitter.com/brokenbottleboy/status/1285252978677559297?s=21
French PM Castex today "we might have to close the border with Spain due to the rising number of local outbreaks"
Sturgeon today "Aye, just awa' on yer holidays to Spain, dinnae worry aboot quarantine when ye get back hame".
Perhaps Macron might like to look a little closer to home. French cases stopped declining a while ago too.
Good news indeed. But now can we expect Trump to buy up the world supply of it as he did with Remdesivir.
What kind of stupid government would sell Trump all the stock of their own medicine?
Oh, hang on....🤦♂️
Analysis of the documents suggests that the Government has not only recklessly sped ahead with lifting restrictions knowing that it would probably trigger a COVID-19 resurgence, but did so in pursuit of the belief that the virus is so unstoppable that it is bound to become a ‘fifth’ seasonal coronavirus like those that cause common flus and colds.
Nice bit of conspiracy theory in the morning.
When I come to theories, I generally favour cockup over conspiracy. But with this government, who are both deeply corrupt and extremely stupid, it's so hard to tell.
Report from a London pub that I'm familiar with - widespread refusal to give contact details, ignoring staff instructiopn on where to sit, belligerent attitude towards staff members, one customer saying she wouldnt give her details as she's going on holiday in 2 weeks and doesn't want to have to self-isolate.
This is why we can't have nice things.
Nice bit of conspiracy theory in the morning.
To be fair, TiRed of this parish has been suggesting this as a probable long term outcome from pretty early on in the crisis.
It’s only a “conspiracy theory” to those who haven’t bothered to read the SAGE minutes which are only a quick google away.
This “ends” in two ways: a vaccine, or 70% of us having had it.
Nb latest serological analysis from Iquitos (Peru) has 71% infection rate. So much for the kooky denialist dark immunity nonsense.
But with this government, who are both deeply corrupt and extremely stupid, it’s so hard to tell.
Herd immunity is no bad thing but its a bit far fetched to say that the government is aiming for a second wave by 'recklessly easing lockdown restrictions'.
We're doing the same as the other European countries.
We’re doing the same as the other European countries.
> checks contact tracing app is installed and working <
Oh yeah, the same.
We’re doing the same as the other European countries.
No we really are not ( or you down south). R rates and so on much higher here and a much quicker loosening of restrictions in England and no mandatory masks
