I was quite amused by Hancocks reponse to the tory mouth breather going on about a monstrous impostition over using masks for shopping
Just witnessed 3 generations of a family going into the supermarket and showing some yellow lanyard when challenged about wearing a mask by security, which seemed to allow them the freedom of asda, unmansked.
Irony is the that the mother, her daughter and kids granny were morbidly obese, pretty much the target audience for that wee bugger covid.
Still, 7 days with no deaths now, we must be doing something right.
It's all gone very quiet so I'm bumping this up the page
Rather indicative of how it's dropped down everyone's radar I guess.
I was quite amused by Hancocks reponse to the tory mouth breather going on about a monstrous impostition over using masks for shopping
Ah, Desmond Swayne, my MP in very safe 60-70% seat for last 20 years. He also doesn't mind a bit of blacking up. You would wonder how the hell someone like that gets elected until you talk to people who live in the New Forest...
Rather indicative of how it’s dropped down everyone’s radar I guess.
Yup. It'll be slipping further down the radar, until it's up again.
Meanwhile, I expect the government will be doing an excellent job of preparing our medical resources, staff, and infrastructure for another wave.
Not.
showing some yellow lanyard when challenged about wearing a mask by security, which seemed to allow them the freedom of asda, unmansked.
Sunflowers?
If so, maybe the kids have some sort of neurodiversity, which make mask wearing difficult for them. Maybe the adults have it too.
https://hiddendisabilitiesstore.com/
Utter moron, we truly live in an idiocracy
Still, 7 days with no deaths now, we must be doing something right.
That's not right, NHS page is still showing a handful of deaths per day and that's just in hospitals, not care homes or the wider community.
Odd source but it's George Davey-Smith:
https://www.workersliberty.org/index.php/story/2020-07-15/socialist-epidemiologist-pandemic
That’s not right
He meant in Scotland... were it does indeed look like they've been doing something right.
Perhaps a different "we".
Rather indicative of how it’s dropped down everyone’s radar I guess.
Not me. Analysis this week has thrown up a few outlier areas, but deaths are in the normal range. Probably because we have traded RTAs for COVID19, and are yet to see cancer deaths increase.
Much debate about immunity and waning antibodies. Some nice data from Pfizer and Moderna on antibody vaccine response in their trials. And the day job.
Cases and deaths look like to stabilise at about 1-200 deaths per week. And then winter is coming...
You're not the average punter TiRed
I posted a few days ago that there would be an announcement about the Oxford vacine, although i didn't know what it would be.
How did I know...turns out my big bro is part of the team involved in its development. Didn't realise that until my mum told me at the weekend!
The virus was doubling every 3.5 days prior to lockdown, so the weeks delay ignoring Sage allowed the number of infections/deaths to quadruple. Well done Boris.
Some info on why English numbers are different to the rest of U.K.
So Hancock can call an urgent inquiry when it suits him then. He wants to get the death count reviewed so that it can be lowered!
What about all the other failings?
Update in the Guardian suggests a revision in numbers might take a thousand off the total.
Although given what we now know about the longer term effects of the virus, there might be more delayed deaths due to it?
Meanwhile in the US:
The US has seen about 1 million new cases in the last 20 days (no that's not a typo).
Deaths are a lagging indicator but you can assume that around 5% of those infected will go onto to die. If there was any justice then it would only be affecting the "God's Breathing System", "My Body My Choice", #NoMask nutjobs but unfortunately the virus is a bit more indiscriminate.
The US is now working as a cautionary tale for the rest of the world about easing lockdown too early and getting "back to business".
I hope no-one is listening to Johnson's press conference... because he's only seeding more confusion...
You can both get back to your workplaces, and use your elderly at risk parents for childcare... because you can form a two household bubble with those grandparents... that's what he says... but how are you forming a bubble if you're also mixing with two lots of workmates...?
Anyway, he's basically kicked the ball over to employers.. it's over to them.
I've been shopping in the local independent shops, where signage and safety is really good.
In the butchers, there is a thick yellow line, running the length of the counter. Out of the 3 people only allowed in at one time, I'm the only one complying by standing behind it. Arrgghhh. People going the wrong way with arrows, people not social distancing and leaning over, because their shopping needs to be packed quicker.
It's been an education in idiotship over the past few months (also selfishness and inconsideration).
Some info on why English numbers are different to the rest of U.K.
Interesting!
By this PHE definition, no one with COVID in England is allowed to ever recover from their illness. A patient who has tested positive, but successfully treated and discharged from hospital, will still be counted as a COVID death even if they had a heart attack or were run over by a bus three months later.
@Bunnyhop - Remember the fuel crisis in 2000? The people who kept queuing to fill their tank after their daily 5 mile commute are more than likely the same arseholes causing problems in the shops, buses, etc. now
By this PHE definition, no one with COVID in England is allowed to ever recover from their illness. A patient who has tested positive, but successfully treated and discharged from hospital, will still be counted as a COVID death even if they had a heart attack or were run over by a bus three months later.
If they have a heart attack/stroke a couple of months after being seriously ill with Covid, there's a fair chance it was contributory. There are people who are struggling with the after-effects of this virus many months later.
And really, truly, does anyone really think this counting method is responsible for a sizeable chunk of the 50-150 deaths we're getting a day?
The truth is we are down to our endemic baseline. Which is much larger than other European countries. It doesn't look good and the government is desperate to magic it away. It's just inconvenient that people are dying partly or wholly because of this virus even months after discharge from hospital.
The truth is we are down to our endemic baseline. Which is much larger than other European countries. It doesn’t look good and the government is desperate to magic it away. It’s just inconvenient that people are dying partly or wholly because of this virus even months after discharge from hospital.
Indeed, I'm not disputing that. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland cap it at 28 days so the UK figure needs to be consistent.
If/when we do get a 2nd wave, the death figures might be including people dying in the summer so could be very misleading.
needs to be consistent
Use excess deaths (averaged over a week or so) not daily reported deaths from the virus to get a meaningful figure to compare with other countries... the figures you are looking at are only useful for day to day mitigation planning... they will never be useful for comparison between countries, the data collection will never be consistent in different medical systems.
There's no baseline, it's just not quite taken off again yet. We are right on the edge now, case numbers are up fairly consistently over the past week or so, and it's easier to see it getting worse rather than better IMO. Mind you, I've been too pessimistic before.
I had a look at Spain and Italy on worldometers today, they are starting to climb after having been very low. If we have had more transmission that would give us more population immunity even if it's short term, no? Would we then expect to see a lower second peak?
The US has seen about 1 million new cases in the last 20 days (no that’s not a typo).
Deaths are a lagging indicator but you can assume that around 5% of those infected will go onto to die.
Crazy numbers, however IFR is about 0.6% when averaged over all age groups, only gets to 5% for the >65s (and greater for even older). So it is not reasonable to assume that 5% of that 1m people will die if those infections are spread proportionally across age groups (and some evidence that they are concentrated in younger people). But it is a huge reservoir of infection, lets hope they can do better than us and keep it out of care homes...
It will be interesting to see how the Southampton saliva test trail goes for early warnings.
Yesterday's briefing was somewhat surreal pushing all back to normal by Christmas. Although I'm going for Remembrance Sunday being the designated day for normal - keeping with the jolly war narrative. It did seem a bit bizarre to push normal the day after worst case scenario warnings. You'd think the government would be re-enforcing the need for maintaining biosecurity.
It's going to be a whole mess of mixed messages with the local / national split. Bojo spouting jingoistic bojisms all over the place whilst local authorities try to get the biosecurity / lock lockdown messages out. I can't see Team Boris resisting taking chapter and verse from the Trump playbook but reading local authorities for states.
Was looking over the euro data this morning. We are at low endemic levels for cases. And that holds true for almost every country. Yes that includes Norway and Denmark btw. Deaths do follow cases, and I did an analysis yesterday to predict a 50% probability that we will report zero U.K. deaths On one day before end of August. That assumes things continue to decline. They won’t.
As for Christmas, I said this very early and I’ll say it again, a month is a long time in an epidemic process. Cases are not currently declining, deaths have a half-life of three weeks. Prediction beyond September is futile. The reasonable worst case is just that, an upper bound.
I just want to extend a personal thanks for your posts on this thread.
Unpolitical, comprehensible by a layman yet detailed, thoughtful, concise & thankfully without hyperbole or baggage. It sounds like you’ve your hands full work wise yet you take time to post your thoughts here.
Chapeau.
I is confused. Is this ...
a "game changer", or is it rather irrelevant except as a source of data about the spread of the disease, since you can get re-infected?
Feels like they are grasping for things to get good headlines.
Am sure the data will be interesting and maybe will give more info on asymptomatic rates. But like you I can't really see what it will achieve unless they want to give those with antibodies some sort of green pass to go out and spend money?
Id be very interested to see the details of the antibody test
Anecdotally, medic colleagues are complaining that the one being used to test NHS staff has required more than one go to show a positive when they're pretty certain they've had it and also problems with tests being lost
There are several methods to look for antibodies. The gold standard is an ELISA test. Enzyme linked imunosorbant assay. This needs some nice science to capture the little antibodies with some antigen, then bind another agent to them to report the detection. Abbot and Roche are the players here and have adapted their automated systems to measure anti-SARS-CoV2 spike protein antibodies. But you need a good blood sample and a big lab. They are very sensitive (accurate) so if you have antibodies, they’ll find them (99% of the time)
The second test that made all the news is the lateral flow test you can do at home with a sort of dipstick. These need a prick of blood And reporting reagent, but were very poor sensitivity (detecting about 75% of the time)
The game changer is that this new assay has the ease of lateral flow - do it at home, and the sensitivity of ELISA - get the right answer!
But we don’t yet understand what being antibody positive means, so it’s all rather moot! We will at least see with more clarity who has had exposure to the virus. But it does not measure titre (amount of antibodies) - that’s a whole new ballgame.
[tl:dr] the new antibody test will give you lab accuracy, done at home. If you’ve had it, you’ll know. It won’t tell you you’re immune, but it will tell you you’ve been vaccinated.
cheers TiRed.
as an aside if TiRed says something that i thought when i read an article is it confirmation bias......
Do we have any front line doctors on here?
Has our treatment of Covid patients increased markedly since the start? Am I more likely to survive a full blown visit to ITU than before?
As a reasonably fit 45 y/o white male, regularly tested and assessed for heart conditions, and O+ blood group I'm aware that Im not a major risk, but as I go back to work flying it would be nice to know if things are improving?
This is interesting. It is speculative but nobody else is setting out possible scenarios.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/19/what-happens-when-flu-meets-covid-19
I thought the PHE study only found ~ 90% accuracy in the serology tests?
[tl:dr] the new antibody test will give you lab accuracy, done at home. If you’ve had it, you’ll know. It won’t tell you you’re immune, but it will tell you you’ve been vaccinated.
Will this sort out the issue where it seems long haulers are returning negative antibody tests?
On the covid meets flu thing - qualifying with I've returned negative antibody test - I picked up what felt like a cold the end of June. It triggered some of the symptoms from March / April suspected Covid. All we do see to know is Covid wallops anyone with an underlying condition - no reason why this couldn't also include cold / flu.
Has our treatment of Covid patients increased markedly since the start? Am I more likely to survive a full blown visit to ITU than before?
My SiL went back to the NHS and has been working on Covid wards - her take at the moment is that they've got fewer patients so have more time for each one, and that is generally giving better outcomes. I get the impression that wouldn't be sustained if every bed is full and they're run ragged. Obvious caveat that there have been steps in treatment as well, but she's not convinced that's the sole factor.
I thought the PHE study only found ~ 90% accuracy in the serology tests?
Early lateral flow were much lower, automated ELISA well over 90%. The blood transfusion service serology may well have been 90%. But the new lateral flow looks promising.
Of course the LEVEL of antibodies is what matters and is overlooked by one and all. The limit of detection may or may not have relevance to protection levels.
Our anti-drug antibody tests can be so sensitive that they tell you you’ve had the drug. The detection limit is presets of magnitude below the therapeutic levels.
