Edited - cba’ed anymore
We’re doing the same as the other European countries.
> checks contact tracing app is installed and working <
Oh yeah, the same.
> checks new case rates <
Oh yeah, the same.
A little more good news on excess mortality this week - there isn't any. Only one age group (F 65-75 excess 35 deaths). Also the trend is tracking the mean rather than tanking below it - hence "they would have died anyway" is currently not supported, but we shall see for the 2H2020.
As for conspiracy - I couldn't see it either. Unless conspiracy theory = ignorance. SARS-COV2 is likely to become the fifth seasonal endemic coronavirus. There won't be herd immunity. There will be protection and better treatments. How one controls its spread through society without excessive mortality is the key question. It's when not if.
> checks new case rates <
It's not absolute numbers - log-fold rate of change is what matters. If you look at the rest of Europe, whilst we are the "sick man", the trends in rate of change of new cases are tending to increase rather than decrease now. The US is what Italy used to be - showing us the way. Doubling time is a week at the moment (and that's adjusting for increased testing). That's to be compared with a previous unbridled doubling time of two to three days.
Don't believe in exceptionalism. It's a hard lesson.
The only way in which England is exceptional is in releasing the lockdown controls at an earlier stage in the suppression than most of our EU neighbours, and with a worse TTI system in place. But's going to be a struggle for even the best...
Well in that, sadly, the US have done us a favor. And yes, challenging times this winter for sure. You can see the normal uptick in mortality. It will be very interesting to see whether we remain in course. I think we will and that life expectancy has fallen very very slightly.
We’re doing the same as the other European countries.
Yes we are now. But we didn't at the beginning, when we didn't lockdown. So they are in a better place to open up than we are.
Surley seasonal Flu will be at its lowest levels for like, ever.
Read the Guardian What happens when flu meets Covid 19?
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/19/what-happens-when-flu-meets-covid-19
I am going back into lockdown from September onwards.
Reading today about anti-vaxxers. If there is a vaccine and it works then anti-vaxxers will just be cleaning out the gene pool. Cant see what the problem is.
Apologies if the thread stalwarts have covered this somewhere, but I'm being too lazy to read over 300 pages.
Can anybody explain why the R number/infections have dropped and are staying so low currently? It feels to me, in London, like lockdown and any social distancing ended months ago now, other than I guess a fair number of people still working from home. Is this one factor really that substantial? Oh and kids off school. It just feels so much closer to 'do as you please' than the 'house arrest' type lockdown at the start I find it hard to understand how a virus that is now widespread isn't spreading very fast any more. With scientists, even vallance and sage, talking like a winter second peak being likely is it less of a problem now because the virus is actually affected by the weather? I thought the evidence showed it wasn't particularly. Is it that indoor transmission rates are so much higher and the summer weather means we aren't mixing inside as much? Is it really that some element of SD behaviour that does remain is really really effective? (I'm not sure if hand washing is even sticking anymore) or am I missing something? I starting to think that possibly the scientists know there is something but don't know what. The dark matter affect.
A scientist writes... 😉
A few points. First R is a measure of transmission, and it is "about" 1. That means that we have an equilibrium of sorts - cases are neither declining nor increasing appreciably. There are two possible reasons for this; lack of mixing and immunity. Depending on your politics, it would seem, people are likely to favor one or the other.
Either lockdown has no effect (the first) or we all have some cross-immunity from past colds or an asymptomatic infection. The truth is probably somewhere between (but closer to the first). The US unlocked far too early and now see rising cases and will see rising deaths soon. We may contain things but numbers of outbreaks are increasing - expect more local lockdowns would be my prediction.
As for immunity, well the jury is out. I believe that there may be some limited cross-immunity for the few from some previous coronavirus infections. Perhaps cellular not antibody. But one needs to take the long view that this virus probably looks like the other four viruses of the same flavor. Seasonal infections, no life-long immunity, antibodies that signal you've had exposure and reinfection about once every couple of years.
Come winter when we are all inside, transmission will go up for this virus, other colds and of course influenza. The law of mass action does not care for politics. By then we will have better testing and tracking, perhaps some protocols for affected schools and workplaces, active monitoring of nursing homes and screening of hospital admissions and discharges. We may also have a vaccine of sorts. If forced, I'd say normality is a year away at least.
[TL:DR] Early days, take the long view that this new virus will be around a long time and we'll get much better at coping with it, but it will be a year before things get back to normal.
A scientist who has modelled and published on the COVID outbreak also writes:
Outdoor transmission is very low anyway, so many of the instructions to not go out and meet were probably overkill (though: the situation was desperate at the time, the science about outdoor transmission was less clear back then, and every little helps). So people going to the beach, parks, etc, doesn't have much effect even though it looks like a very visible change.
Lots of people are still staying mostly at home, not going to school or work, so we are by no means back to normal. Google mobility still has us about 40-50% down on public transport, workplace mobility. That's a lot! Which also means more space for those using it, of course.
Even when people are meeting indoors, it is much more limited than previously. Local pubs round here are quiet compared to pre-lockdown and are limiting capacity.
And, in fact R has definitely gone up, and is very close to 1 now. IT was about 0.6-0.7 immediately after lockdown. That's a large increase in percentage terms - around 50%.
So, my tldr summary is that R has indeed increased, but our behaviour is still socially distanced to a substantial degree (especially indoor where it matters most). If we were to return to a proper "business as usual" I have no doubt the disease will spread again.
I have no doubt the disease will spread again
This in spades.
feels to me, in London, like lockdown and any social distancing ended months ago now
Not sure what part of london you are in but certainly during work days central London is all but dead and the tube is very low in numbers due to lack of tourists, office workers and day trippers. So even if people aren't social distancing 100% the transmission rate is going to be way down from where it was pre lockdown.
the ‘house arrest’ type lockdown at the start
And we certainly never had a proper "house arrest" type lockdown like some countries did - we could go out to exercise, to travel to work if we couldn't work from home, travel 30 miles to check your eyesight.
The fact that a lot of people did treat it more seriously made up for the minority who didn't stick to what were actually quite generous limitations.
Put 5 live on this morning, the English are still moaning about masks, put 5 live back off again.
It's unreal.
On the subject of returning to normal, my barber shop is back open and after the initial rush demand has dropped right off. Normally I fill every slot I put online.
I could speculate as to why but I imagine lots of folks are making a sensible decision and remaining 'alert'! Works for me too, I'd much rather be riding my bike 🙂
Jeremy vine on radio 2 was doing covid too and although the Indy sage ex chief medical advisor was quite sombre and critical of the government, the callers were generally gung-ho get back to normal and stop being frightened ninnies sorts. Reflective of general attitudes or selectively chosen for better radio? I fear the former.
Btw, my comments are based on living in zone 3 South London. Busy roads, busy shops, very few masks bring worn... Declining mask wearing I reckon... Friday will be interesting.
I just worked out at current infection rate (1500-2500 cases/day) England would take about 27 years to achieve herd immunity (guessed 30 million people, 65% for herd immunity). Although I dont respect Boris and co, if they are pursuing herd immunity as a policy they are f***ing that up as well.
As an indicator of mask acceptance in Scotland I offer the fact that my local supermarket no longer has 2 security dudes telling people to go away if they don't have a mask, and now has one skinny speccy shortarse doing the same. A demonstration if ever there was one that it's easy to get people to follow the rules.
It's probably been asked before but.....is there a simple guide to the current rules about visiting, staying over, bubbles that compares Wales, Scotland and England?
As far as I'm aware the rules are quite different.
Sturgeon's clear communication has probably helped the apparent acceptance of mask wearing in Scotland.
Unfortunately, England doesn't have anyone in power with the ability or willingness to communicate in an equally clear manner.
People will, generally, follow the rules if they see leadership and hear unequivocal messages from said leader.
With the requirement to wear a face mask coming in to effect in 48 hours or so in shops, I asked the question of my contact in DfT if this would extend to public transport interchanges and bus stations (I’m in public transport for a city region). Logic would reasonable to assume it would, as in essence they also contain retail units and as such aren’t any different to a shopping mall in many ways.
I’m still waiting for them to tell us the answer.
If it is a yes, I’ve basically got tomorrow to put up signage, brief every employee, agree policies for enforcement and communicate all this to customers. That I’ve not heard tells you most of what you need to know about how this is being run.
I just worked out at current infection rate (1500-2500 cases/day) England would take about 27 years to achieve herd immunity (guessed 30 million people, 65% for herd immunity). Although I dont respect Boris and co, if they are pursuing herd immunity as a policy they are f***ing that up as well.
Is that factoring potential loss of immunity over time? Then there is the collateral damage in terms of death, long term conditions resulting from the Covid and long haulers.
What ever else it is incompetence or conspiracy it's still not moving away from an ideological response.
I've noticed an uptake in mask wearing. It amused me there seemed to be a strong correlation between hoody wearing and mask wearing. Although I dont think the sample size would stand up to any form of academic rigger. Nice to see the tat merchants have already managed to turn hands-sprays and masks into a lifestyle accessory. I think it'll be a safe bet the more follicly challenged weightlifting fans will be sporting Bane style masks before too long.
I'm currently in South West France. Mask wearing is compulsory in shops and nominally in restaurants.
I can confirm that every single place I've been from big city to tiny village, transport terminal to beach, no-one of any age gives the slightest shit about any form of distancing and the mask wearing is utterly pointless.
Despite Edukator's insistence that the French are a model of competence and the UK will surely rot in it's own fetid soup, my experience was that the UK was far more compliant and making a better job of minimising contact.
Don't believe all the press you read, just because you see pictures of mask wearing in Europe. They're removed to talk, to queue, to greet, outside spaces are all crowded, restaurant tables fully occupied. All the (flippin wonderful) aires and picnic spots, people are crowded round and pushing past.
Wearing a mask for a few seconds in a shop is an utter irrelevance but makes good press.
England, you're doing ok. 👍🏻
I think it's very location dependent across Europe.
I think it’s very location dependent across Europe.
Exactly, same as the UK, masks in shops up here is 100%, only exception I saw was one family of fatties, bizarrely.
Maybe their appetite for risk matches their appetite for chips?
😉
Wearing a mask for a few seconds in a shop is an utter irrelevance but makes good press.
Replacing social distancing with mask wearing was always my fear... the masks giving false confidence that we're stopping the spread... mask wearing on top of social distancing is a laudable aim... but for many people... that isn't going to happen... it's one or the other. Sadly.
Oldagedpredator, no! It was a very simple, over simple calculation. 2000/day, 365 days a year for 27 years. I am not an expert on this but can see that herd immunity isn't viable... Not without just letting the virus rip at NHS destroying, life destroying rates, and even then for a couple of years.
I assume the politicians know this and have known this since the start. So surely it's not been on the table as an option.... Much as I dislike Boris I can't believe he'd consider it a viable option. That's all.
It was explicitly advocated by the govt and SAGE members up to about mid-March. We can debate precisely how much and how quickly the attitude changed subsequently, but it wasn't in doubt before then. Fully documented in SAGE minutes, multiple public interviews etc. Claims to the contrary are simply make-believe.
To be clear, the advocacy of the herd immunity plan was based on the accepted wisdom of the time that there simply was no alternative as it was not practical to permanently suppress the virus.
thecaptain
MemberTo be clear, the advocacy of the herd immunity plan was based on the accepted wisdom of the time that there simply was no alternative as it was not practical to permanently suppress the virus.
Ehhhhhh no not even slightly, which is why we were the only country talking about it while others were proceeding with lockdowns.
accepted wisdom
Accepted wisdom in the "we're against group think, honest" self selecting team at number 10, maybe... nowhere else.
Anyway, Calderdale folk... you'll no doubt be aware that we're surrounded by "areas of national concern" as regards new infections... we'll it looks like we're likely to be added to that list any day now... I would advice that you change your behaviour now rather than later if you need to.
I'm struggling to parse Northwind's post so as to make any sense. I was just describing the approach presented in the pre-existing pandemic plan and confirmed repeatedly in the SAGE minutes and meeting papers. It's the approach that Sweden has persevered with, only they made a much better job of it by introducing some controls much earlier, without a full lockdown. Despite that, there are plenty of critics of their approach.
It's still not at all clear to me what the long-term outcome will be, and a lot hangs on whether ad how soon we get an effective vaccine.
BTW case numbers are consistently albeit gradually up over the past fortnight. R>1.
If it is a yes, I’ve basically got tomorrow to put up signage, brief every employee, agree policies for enforcement and communicate all this to customers. That I’ve not heard tells you most of what you need to know about how this is being run.
They can answer you now... assuming both they and you are working this evening ready for tomorrow... the government have now said that, if I understand their just published and perhaps slightly cryptic rules, that, the answer is yes. Get ready! You've got hours spare...
For transport hubs in England, the requirements mean face coverings must be worn in indoor train stations and terminals, airports, maritime ports, and indoor bus and coach stations or terminals.
thecaptain
MemberI’m struggling to parse Northwind’s post so as to make any sense.
It wasn't complicated. Herd immunity has never been the "accepted wisdom of the time", it was a nearly unique response which the rest of the world rejected. I don't know how anyone can claim that something so controversial and exceptionalist was "accepted wisdom" to be frank.
I see the PM is up here telling us how great the UK response has been. Meanwhile 50 new deaths are recorded down South in the past 24 hours, while Scotland (10% of UK population) has had no new deaths recorded for a week and only 1 in the past 15 days. It doesn't exactly sound as though the UK response has been all that great.
Cases are up in England, France and Spain this week. There is a definite upward trend.
Bluster bluster bluster, pish pish pish, wave union flag.
His being here is another massive boost for indy.
Keep spouting shite bawjaws. 👌🏻
They can answer you now… assuming both they and you are working this evening ready for tomorrow…
Yep @kelvin, got the notification confidentially last night so spent most of last night and then today sorting things out. Just logged off and issued staff comms at 9pm for it to come in to effect from midnight. Ho hum.
Next challenge is that all the funding for bus and tram services in England expires on 3 August and no confirmation yet what will replace it. Fun times indeed.
Tough day. I’m sure you’ll find most people fine tomorrow… hope it’s as hassle free as possible for you and the other staff. Good luck.
Cases are up in England, France and Spain this week. There is a definite upward trend.
Bit early to say there's a definite upward trend in the UK. Worldofmeters is showing a relatively flat 600-650 average (7 days).
Spain and France on the other hand do show an upward trend, Spain is screwed and I'd be surprised if the holiday goers aren't asked to quarantine soon when they come back and Spain is put on the naughty list.
Northwind, it's written very clearly in the pandemic plan which is on the web, you could try reading it. In pointing this out I'm neither defending it nor criticising it, just saying what it is.
What's the odds of France being put on the naughty list soon?
Our french correspondent will be along shortly with some insight.
Bit early to say there’s a definite upward trend in the UK. Worldofmeters is showing a relatively flat 600-650 average (7 days).
So, England really, not the UK.
Thecaptain, I don't think anyone's disagreeing that it was in the UK plan, but it can't be described as 'excepted wisdom' is the point.
