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This doesn't seem to be widely reported in Europe, but US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll seems to be at odds with President Trump and SecWar Hegseth. How long before he's out of the WH?
“There is no person that has more respect for Gen. George … he was an amazing, transformational leader,” the Army secretary said. “That being said, the civilian leadership, the design of our system, is that they get to pick the leaders that they want, and we execute on those orders.”
“I’ve been to Kyiv. I’ve spent a lot of time with a lot of the Ukrainian leadership,” Driscoll told Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), a staunch ally of Ukraine in Congress, adding that, “I am publicly on record saying we are learning a lot from them, and we are changing to a lot of the lessons that they have taught us.”
It seems that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was telling porkies a couple of days ago. The WH sneaked a quiet extension out to the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil just before the weekend began.
Porkies, plural:
1) "We will not be renewing the general license..." (You just did)
2) "That was oil that was on the water prior to March 11. So all that has been used." (Bessent said last month that the “narrowly tailored” measure would “not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government.” If it truly is narrowly tailored, financially insignificant (and the risk of environmental disaster has gone away because the tankers are empty) then where is the benefit to the world?)
The Trump administration on Friday reversed course and extended a waiver on sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products amid the Iran war, just days after a top Cabinet official said the U.S. would not be doing so.
Maybe Bessent's (Trump's) decision is more to do with public reporting and reducing societal discontent in Russia,
Russian business newspaper Kommersant reported on April 16 that Russian seaborne oil exports in mid-April 2026 fell to the lowest level since Summer 2024 and noted that exports could fall to their lowest level since 2023 by the end of April 2026. Kommersant cited a review from the Center for Price Indices (CCI) that Russia reduced its seaborne oil exports by 16.1 percent to 291,000 tons from April 6 to 12 due to Ukrainian strikes against port infrastructure. Kommersant noted that the port of Novorossiysk experienced the sharpest decline of seaborne oil exports, dropping by 73.2 percent to a total export volume of 19,000 tons, but noted that the Baltic Sea ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga did not experience drops in seaborne oil exports between April 6 and 12.
In the meantime, Ukraine continues to impose kinetic sanctions by striking energy infrastructure
Sources:
KYIVPOST.COM This has all manner of sneaky applications,
Ukrainian forces reportedly successfully operated a Sting interceptor drone at a range of 2,000 kilometers amid continued technical innovations to combat Russia’s long-range drone campaign. Ukrainian drone manufacturer Wild Hornets, which manufactures the Sting interceptor drone, announced on April 17 that a Ukrainian pilot used the Hornet Vision Ctrl remote piloting system to operate a Sting drone in northern Ukraine from abroad at a range of 2,000 kilometers.>
Russia can't have too many radar systems left.
This item specifies a Nebo-B radar, while other sources suggest that it's part of a mobile Nebo-M battery. Either way it's one of only a few complete batteries remaining.
The Nebo-M consists of a battery of different mobile radar types (which is possibly where Ukraine's "B" designation comes from) linked to a command post. The different radars detect different target types, including stealth on some units, to cover the full range.
It can also provide targetting data to AD missiles.
The mobile units can also be deployed separately but will only detect their specialisation.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that a strike on April 16 destroyed a Russian Nebo-B radar station in Chernovets, Belgorod Oblast and that a strike on April 15 destroyed a Podlyot radar station in Novomarievka, Rostov Oblast.>
And PM Fico of Slovakia is warming up, ready to take the baton from PM Orban,
April 17 (Reuters) - Slovakia will file a lawsuit in the coming days challenging the European Union's decision to ban Russian gas imports, adopted by a qualified majority, and will seek a preliminary injunction, Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Friday.
The suit will be filed with the EU's Court of Justice, Fico said, criticising the way the regulation was adopted.
Gotta defund these populist outliers. Maybe suspend their access and benefits of EU membership when they overtly side with Russia/TRUMP US.
Trump renews the lifting of oil sanctions on Russia. Ukraines response, 4 refineries hit over night, plus Sevastopol oil storage hit and 2 warships. Kinetic sanctions are the best sanctions!
The reports of oil infrastructure and military kit damage seem more numerous and successful recently. I know the volume and quality of Ukrainian drones and missiles is vastly improved, but have they reached a tipping point of air defence as well recently? 2 ships in one night feels like ports are not adequately defended.
Good. 😁
Would western European countries respond to an article 5 request for the invasion of a potentially unoccupied island in the east of Europe?
Well, blockades seem popular currently - I'm not sure it's easy to get out of the Baltic if someone wants to stop you
The reports of oil infrastructure and military kit damage seem more numerous and successful recently. I know the volume and quality of Ukrainian drones and missiles is vastly improved, but have they reached a tipping point of air defence as well recently? 2 ships in one night feels like ports are not adequately defended.
Good. 😁
I think that it's a bit of everything that you mentioned.
It helps now that Ukraine is developing its own munitions with European assistance that can't be vetoed by the US because of US licensing on the whole or part, including US targetting hardware, e.g. Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG
They also have considerably longer range than US-provided solutions, e.g ATACMS, although accuracy is sometimes a little suspect. Ukraine's solution is to replace the accuracy scalpel with a chainsaw and ramp up the warhead size x4
A prominent Russian milblogger published a purported note from a Russian air defense servicemember claiming that Ukrainian forces were able to strike the port of Ust-Luga because Russian air defense lacked sufficient surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to defend against many strike vehicles, leaving Russian air defenses overwhelmed.
You might have seen that the Bulgarian elections have been won by former President Rumen Radev with 91% of the vote now counted.
This morning, with 60% of the vote counted, he was expected to win a majority which is unusual in Bulgarian politics and not on my bingo card.
The European media outlets went a bit click-baity and only the BBC had it about right IMHO,
"Rumen Radev set to win Bulgarian Parliamentary election" (BBC headline) and finally, 8 paragraphs in, mentions the "somewhat pro-Russian leader"
Example headlines:
- Bulgarian ex-president Rumen Radev -- an EU critic who has called for renewing ties with Russia -- hailed a “victory of hope” after his coalition topped the eighth parliamentary elections in five years on Monday. (Kyiv Post first sentence)
- Bulgaria's Kremlin-friendly ex-president set for landslide election win (Reuters headline)
- Bulgaria's pro-Russian former president takes strong lead in election, exit polls show (Reuters headline)
- Russia-aligned Rumen Radev wins landslide in Bulgaria (Politico headline)
Despite his pro-Russia/EU-critical personal stance I'd recommend the BBC article for a balanced view of the new leader in Bulgaria
BBC.CO.UK 
The former Warsaw pact countries have memories like a sieve. They seem to need to go through this nostalgic walk back to more authoritarian times phase. Reading the article though, it seems he's not another Orban.
So cub camp this weekend one of the parent helpers turned out to be a guy I follow on bluesky, who is a former senior fellow at RUSI and now chief defense editor at The Economist, he was in Kabul just before the handover to the Taliban and has spent time in Ukraine and Iran, been on QT etc as the Iran expert...genuinely nice guy - so obviously was picking his brain a lot about stuff- on Iran he was not optimistic on Ukraine was quite interesting
-His take, The 1st 3 days of the war Russia lost it by failing to take Kyiv- the Americans warned Ukraine of the attack on Hostomel etc and they were able to stop it with manpads and machine guns, it really came down to a few helicopters of russian special forces being taken out that saved the day.
The following year Russia slowly lost its experienced soldiers in meat assaults, so now they are stuck in viscous circle of recruiting soldiers, barely training them for 2 weeks, sending them to be killed, rinse & repeat, with no gap to build up a competent army , leaving them at best able to take a few meters a day at huge cost in lives (ukraine has similar issues but nowhere near as bigger losses allows them to keep expertise and rotate them home for a time)
Also said the drone thing is nuts, there are forests in ukraine with a carpets of fibre optics and securing the cable from China is a constant struggle for both sides, both sides are now using drones that self target for the last KM or so(like a DJI Neo) so they are harder to jam
Hes moving with his family to DC in the summer to cover the midterms and see what wars Trumps starts next
Shashank Joshi? He's a clever cookie!
Yes, and a decent guy, cooked 80 rashers of bacon on Sunday morning!
He did arrive with his son to camp in a Porsche Cayenne
Ukraine has continued its strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, ports, moored ships, radar and logistics. It's widely reported that the Tuapse Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai, which was struck on two separate occasions within the last week, is emitting a 200 miles-long trail of smoke.
The Financial Times (FT) reported on April 20 that Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service Head Lieutenant General Thomas Nilsson stated that Russia’s economy has failed to recover despite rising oil prices due to the war in the Middle East.
"Nilsson stated that Russian inflation is likely closer to 15 percent even as the Kremlin claims it to be 5.86 percent. Nilsson said that Russia has understated its budget deficit by $30 billion. ISW has long assessed that the true Russian inflation rate is higher than the Kremlin publicly claims and that the Kremlin has been spreading narratives that exaggerate Russia’s strength to support its demands at the negotiating table."
Russia attempted to assassinate civilian Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov, Ukraine's somewhat controversial and occasionally abrasive signals, comms, electronic warfare and drone expert.
He first came to the notice of the KGB before the collapse of the USSR as a teenager experimenting with electronics and using prohibited frequencies,
"Russian forces attempted to use long-range one-way strike drones to assassinate Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) advisor on defense technology and a drone and electronic warfare (EW) expert. Beskrestnov stated on April 20 that Russian forces attempted to strike his house with four Shahed drones, injuring him and destroying his house."
UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG 
Despite heavy pressure from Russian forces and some assessed advances with control of territory towards the "fortress belt" cities,
"Russian State Duma Defense Committee Deputy Chairperson Alexei Zhuravlyov stated on April 20 that the situation in Donetsk Oblast is a “positional standoff” in which Russian advances occur in “hundreds of meters” per week, and that Russian forces could take “months” to seize Slovyansk and Kramatorsk."
In contrast, Russian General Valery Gerasimov is making wildly optimistic claims of Russia's progress in 2026. This seems to coincide with reported plans for envoys Witkoff and Kushner to visit Moscow soon, but without plans to visit Kyiv,erasimov visited the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces (GoF) command on April 21 and claimed — contrary to available evidence, including pro-Russian war reporting — that Russian forces seized over 1,700 square kilometers and 80 settlements in Ukraine, including the entirety of Luhansk Oblast, since early 2026
Russia has made some ground and his claim for the Luhansk is probably correct given that Russia already held >99%, however
Despite stretching the timeframe covered in his claims, Gerasimov still could not present frontline claims that even the most expansive claims from Russia’s ultranationalist milblogger community would consider realistic. Russian milbloggers have repeatedly criticized Gerasimov for exaggerating Russian gains near Kupyansk and other parts of the frontline and the practices of seizing settlements “on credit” and sending “beautiful reports,” each alleging unsubstantiated Russian advances to higher-ups from which the military command then makes operational plans and objectives for Russian forces on the ground."
The US visit also coincides with the licence granted to mine manganese in occupied Zaporizhzhia and estimated to yield more than Russia's annual needs.
Repairs to the Druzhba pipeline are now complete and President Zelensky is urging the EU to get their €90bn loan back on track. The loan is critical to the defence of Europe and without it Ukraine's finances will be as desperate as those in Russia.
The EU is expecting that an announcement can be made today (22nd) but the money won't be in Ukraine for at least another month
Dua Lipa has been fund-raising for Ukraine through her Service95 support for international relief. There is a promotional video circulating online of her making coffee over a woodburner with George Clooney in a donated Audi military pick-up truck (the video has something for everyone on here, but may not include every element alluded to).
I had no idea that she was British, so I'll leave fans with a link to the article
Russia is reportedly planning to stop Kazakhstan exporting oil to Germany via the Russian Druzhba pipeline. Poland has shipping routes available in that event and Dmitry Peskov, Russia's spokesman isn't aware of the threat
Transnistria, the breakaway Russian enclave bordering Ukraine and in Moldova is being leveraged. Moldova can't join the EU until it controls its borders and has been increasing diplomatic pressure on the enclave; Russia is responding,
"It must not be forgotten that more than 220,000 Russian citizens live in Transdniestria. Their interests and safety are now under threat due to the ill-considered and irresponsible actions of Kyiv and Chisinau," (Russia's Security Council secretary, Sergei) Shoigu told the daily.
"If the need arises, Russia will take all necessary steps and use all available methods to protect them under the constitution. You mustn't rule anything out, and we are considering all possible scenarios, even those that are most unlikely."
Please have a look at the formatting, it's slipped again and I can't edit one of my posts, thanks
Some good news and an early indication that, hopefully, Hungary is no longer in Russia's pocket.
Will this money actually be exchanged for weapons, or just end up in a Washington slush fund (like eg Switzerland’s money) ?
Some good news and an early indication that, hopefully, Hungary is no longer in Russia's pocket.
Will this money actually be exchanged for weapons, or just end up in a Washington slush fund (like eg Switzerland’s money) ?
It's not intended for spending with the US, although it can be spent there if there is isn't an alternative.
€30bn will be spent on tedious stuff like pay 🤞
I imaging any manganese facility will be a nice target for Ukraine.
It's not intended for spending with the US, although it can be spent there if there is isn't an alternative.
€30bn will be spent on tedious stuff like pay
Excellent.
What's the story of the "Washington slush fund"?
Switzerland has donated to peaceful projects in Ukraine, eg power generation, rebuilding, etc.
They've also ear-marked funds to develop Switzerland's self-defence capabilities as a result of the war
Thanks again for all your work on this thread @timba, I'm probably not alone in getting all my updates about the war from your posts here.
Thanks folks, I think that between us we do a pretty fair job👍
What's the story of the "Washington slush fund"?
I was referring to money paid by Switzerland for F35 being diverted by the US while failing to deliver the Patriots ordered. More or less…
DEFENSEMIRROR.COM I was referring to money paid by Switzerland for F35 being diverted by the US while failing to deliver the Patriots ordered. More or less…
Unfortunately Switzerland contracted with the US and the US decided to prioritise Ukraine.
You can't unilaterally freeze agreed payments; don't try this on a mortgage!
Switzerland should have cancelled the contract and bought SAMP/T elsewhere, which they are considering,
Washington has postponed the delivery of five Patriot anti-missile batteries units to Switzerland indefinitely, giving priority to Ukraine.
AND
Switzerland has already paid some CHF700 million as a down payment. “I can imagine that we will not be able to withdraw from this contract without paying a penalty. We will then have to see whether we still claim this reimbursement or whether we deduct it from the existing contract for the F-35 aircraft,” said Swiss People’s Party politician Mauro Tuena.
SWISSINFO.CH You can't unilaterally freeze agreed payments; don't try this on a mortgage!
No, but usually you get a house when you agree to a mortgage 🙂
I've nothing useful to add to Timba's excellent updates. I just noticed this pleasing symmetry to the thread post count this morning. Which I've just ruined...
Sad however that we still need it, 4 years and counting after Putin's invasion. The totally unnecessary death and suffering of Ukrainians and Russians because of 1 man's ego. I remain in awe of the Ukrainian people, of their courage, determination and resilience. I hope the war ends soon, but whenever it does I have no doubt Ukraine will be strengthened and Russia diminished because of Putin's folly. Here's hoping the thread is closed due to misuse before we get to 33333. Sorry for the less objective, slightly more emotional post. Normal service will be resumed shortly 😊
Slava Ukraini! Heroyam Slava!
Nicely put blokeuptheroad.
Think the formatting is fixed, sorry for the delay I was busy yesterday and this am.