Sorry to report that it's still off. The posts seem to have filled the entire column with the user name, stats and editing icons mixed into the mess.
I will confess to failing to hit "enter" between two posted hyperlinks so that they ended up in the same "sentence", but I plead automatism
Ta.
I’ll try and take a look. Yeah the oddities seems to be after your posts and the way the links work but can’t work it out why.
Think I got it now.
It’s the pasting of links that seems to do it. I have had to use the link icon and paste the link it to sort it. Bizarrely I had to it turn my iPad into portrait mode to see the post that was causing issues as there were some missing ones. I suspect similarly to you see line of text I had a long blank area.
Bizarrely I had to it turn my iPad ...
My life is fulfilled! Like a Paul Hollywood handshake, only betterer 👍
Thanks Drac 😉
No problem.
Villages captured by Russia in August/September 2025 in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are gradually coming back under Ukraine's control; northern Novohryhorivka, Stepove and Ternove are already back in Ukraine's hands, followed by Vorone and Sichneve.
Russia is trying to shore up its defences in Berezove which is out on the beginnings of a limb,
"Russian forces are consolidating positions in previously infiltrated areas in the Oleksandrivka direction as Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on April 26 that Russian forces hold Berezove and southern Novohryhorivka (both southeast of Oleksandrivka) after the Russian military command reportedly moved reinforcements to the Berezove and Novohryhorivka areas to prevent further Ukrainian advances." https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-template-020426/
Russian forces are continuing to extend infiltrations in and around the southern-most fortress belt city of Kostyantynivka. Infiltration isn't control but once forces get into a city then it becomes difficult to get them out again, which of course works both ways. Troops have cellars for storage and shelter, high buildings for electronic warfare and observation.
Russia has been building up to this for months, for context on speed and a timeline, here's a piece from the NYT in July 2025,
Russian forces have carved out a 10-mile-deep pocket* around the Ukrainian troops defending Kostiantynivka, partly surrounding them from the east, south and west. Practically every movement in that pocket is targeted by Russian drones around the clock, according to a half-dozen Ukrainian soldiers and officers fighting in the area. Troops are often stranded for weeks without rotation or the possibility of evacuating the wounded.
“It’s extremely difficult to deliver supplies, to rotate troops — to do anything, really,” said Makas, an officer with Ukraine’s 12th Azov Brigade, using his call sign. Several service members interviewed for this article asked to be identified only by their call sign or first name for security reasons, and according to military protocol.
Ukraine is now bracing for Russia’s final push on Kostiantynivka although the battle could still take months to play out. The question is whether Moscow will launch a frontal attack, as in Bakhmut in 2023, or try to close the pocket in a pincer movement^ to force the Ukrainians to withdraw, repeating the strategy it applied when it took Avdiivka last year."
This "pincer movement" ^ appears to be Russia's MO here as well, from Illinivka to the west and Predtechyne to the east, but because the pocket* didn't deepen over the last several months it really only gives them the southern half of Kostyantynivka, if successful.
Sources:
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-template-020426/
http://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/07/world/europe/ukraine-war-russia-donetsk.html
The Russian shadow fleet oil tanker, MV Sevan, is being escorted back to Iran after attempting to break the US naval blockade.
That sends an interesting message, along with the promised (yes, I know!) expiry of the current temporary raising of sanctions on Russia oil.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/74783
Israel appears to be a serial importer of grain stolen from Ukraine by Russia.
Israel's Haaretz newspaper reported that four shipments have been unloaded in Israel's ports this year, while Ukraine has gone for a more conservative two shipments.
It was widely publicised in the middle of this month that Israel was asked to investigate one load and they've since received another, although the status of the loads is unclear and may be detained under investigation.
It's a bit of a diplomatic mind-bender if Israel is taking grain stolen from Ukraine (a country declared as an enemy by Iran) by Russia, a country openly supporting Iran in its war against, err Israel and the US,
"Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha commented on the news that Israel had received a second shipment of Ukrainian grain stolen by Russia from the occupied territories, stating that the Israeli ambassador had already been summoned to the Foreign Ministry." https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4117264-foreign-ministry-summons-israeli-ambassador-over-stolen-ukrainian-grain.html
It's a bit of a diplomatic mind-bender if Israel is taking grain stolen from Ukraine
It would be if you started from the standpoint that Israel acts according to morality.
But leaving that aside, I've been reading articles lately on the general theme of "how drones have changed war", including for example the exercise in Estonia which a few Ukrainian ("Russian") drone operators marmelised a "NATO" conventional force. Today you could perhaps say that the 2 countries with the most experience and expertise in this area are Ukraine and Russia. I wonder when the dissemination of expertise and equipment will have a wider impact. Just now Ukrainians are helping the Gulf states. I wonder if Russian experts are aiding Iran, and if, for example, the US invaded Kharg Island they'd be the victims of relentless drone attacks. Also, when will Hezbollah's use of drones against Israeli tanks pick up a level.
Idle thoughts and not specific to Ukraine, but starting there...
Drones began to be used heavily used in Ukraine primarily because neither side achieved air supremacy in the opening stages a few years back. I don't know whether they've given up trying, or realized (because both combatants are broke) that drones can achieve much of the same things for a fraction of the cost. There's clearly a use for them in addition to artillery and CAS operations, and there's a gap I reckon in most traditional Army's responses to them - Reports of exercises like the one in Estonia, are exposing NATO doctrine as being relatively poor in this area. But the adage "Generals are always fighting the last war " is also true, and Ukraine is "the last war" in this case.
I think the major advance that we'll see for forces like the UK is the use of drones to shoot down other drones as opposed to using v expensive systems like Patriot. In other areas, I still think traditional air assets; things like A-10, helicopters and bomb trucks (F15EX) still have better flexibility once you've done the work to achieve supremacy.
Edit: we've been here before, in the 1950-60 is was the expectation that missile and the associated technology would mean that traditional manned aircraft were a thing of the past. It wasn't the case then, I'm not sure that it is now either.
I've been reading articles lately on the general theme of "how drones have changed war", including for example the exercise in Estonia which a few Ukrainian ("Russian") drone operators marmelised a "NATO" conventional force.
That's partly true.
It's a combination of lightning fast data sharing, battlefield surveillance and an exercise with rules.
NATO can definitely up its game on comms and data sharing.
Ukraine has been trialling AI for US companies in its Delta system that pull video, verbal updates, written reports, orders, etc together and will identify targets for instant action. This might take hours in a conventional military.
Ukraine has access to Delta down to personal mobile phone level.
Conventional military acted like they had those hours to advance.
Conventional artillery is many times more efficient than a drone, but it doesn't have anything like the range.The point has already been made about aircraft and their range.
One shell or bomb might cause chaos in a group, one drone less so, although Ukraine is using fragmentation bombs.
The exercise rules were that a modern heavy tank would be killed by a drone, because that happens to 50+ years old Soviet tanks, but nobody knows.
The point of the exercise was the rapid processing of information and decision making, rather than specifically drones, and that point was made!
Ukraine has been trialling AI for US companies in its Delta system that pull video, verbal updates, written reports, orders, etc together and will identify targets for instant action. This might take hours in a conventional military.
I'm not sure that these sorts of systems are all that brilliant a development*, especially in insurgent type conflicts where the battlefield is predominately located in civilian areas - Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan etc . It's becoming clear that the girl's school that was destroyed by the US in Iran was highlighted as a target because the building used to be used by Iranian armed forces, but wasn't any longer. The system knew that it was a school, but it also had info. that it might be a target, and because the system forces users to make a decision very rapidly, no one took the time to analysis it properly and just accepted it as a target.
* I think both Russia and China are developing similar systems and (I think) Xi has said in a speech that the next war will be defined by the success of these types of systems - ie If there are 1000 targets on both side, the winner will be the one who's system can identify and target the most more quickly than the other.
It's becoming clear that the girl's school that was destroyed by the US in Iran was highlighted as a target because the building used to be used by Iranian armed forces, but wasn't any longer. The system knew that it was a school, but it also had info. that it might be a target, and because the system forces users to make a decision very rapidly, no one took the time to analysis it properly and just accepted it as a target.
I'd argue that the system doesn't force anyone.
There's a psychological element for sure, but that's the fault of a person pushing the "fire" button.
There isn't a reason why you couldn't input collateral damage, war crime examples, etc, e.g. should we flatten the power station for one manufacturing plant when that power station also serves 50000 civilians and a desalination plant?
Tragically old information blights any IT system
I'd argue that the system doesn't force anyone.
Not so sure, the use of it in Iran recently was driven partly by the motivation to knock out Iran's capability as quickly as possible. The speeches and reports I've read on these systems (and especially MDPC the Chinese military AI systems) all place speed of operation at a premium.
Xi has said the next war is going to be fought with these AI targeting systems and the currently they're based on the idea that the 'winner' of the next conflict is going to be the one who kills the greatest number of targets in a short a time frame as possible and takes out 'more' than their opponents. These systems have speed of actions baked in. They are going to force operators to make more decisions more quickly, or frighteningly they may decide they're going to remove humans entirely from the decision-making
Tragically old information blights any IT system
There is also the human want to get it right and fear of consequences.
As far as I am aware, AI and other IT systems do not fear court or losing a job in the same way a human does...
. It's becoming clear that the girl's school that was destroyed by the US in Iran was highlighted as a target because the building used to be used by Iranian armed forces, but wasn't any longer. The system knew that it was a school, but it also had info. that it might be a target, and because the system forces users to make a decision very rapidly, no one took the time to analysis it properly and just accepted it as a target.
That was the same reason the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade was hit during the Kosovo conflict, right location but the target had moved. That was a cruise missile programed by a human.
This AI targeting is an interesting read and frightening! , less emotion and consequences to be decided by those at the top!
If it goes wrong....blame the PC less accountability etc etc.
This AI targeting is an interesting read and frightening! , less emotion and consequences to be decided by those at the top!
If it goes wrong....blame the PC less accountability etc etc.
Legally, accountability doesn't change and a war crime is still a war crime, committed by someone.
The difficulty with AI is following a fractured trail to get someone before the ICC.
Arguably, because human beings can't process information like AI does, then everyone from the PC designer, the AI designers, through to the intel sources and inputters hold some accountability for an AI tragedy and that's before someone hits "fire".
Whether any person holds enough accountability to be prosecuted remains to be seen. Corporate manslaughter is an example of how difficult this is.
I suppose the other question is whether ICC member countries are then at a disadvantage because there is a chance of investigations that may hold individual consequences and so decisions are made more slowly and more carefully.
A quick update with links that are worth reading http://www.kyivpost.com/post/75222
The difficulty with AI is following a fractured trail to get someone before the ICC.
Looking at the parties most likely to use AI in a way that constitutes a war crime you have **** all chance of hauling people up in front of the ICC regardless.
Maybe that puts ICC countries on an equal footing and nobody can be prosecuted for a war crime, which is an unpleasant concept
The end of April round-up by ISW is worth reading. I'd add to the list that a certain amount of shuffling Russian forces is happening, such as the moves away from Sumy to the frontline further south (reported ^^) which now seems to be shuffling back toward Sumy.
This will degrade Russia's ability to advance while units are in flux and it also puts troop concentrations in reach of Ukraine's rearward drone operations,
Key Takeaways:
1} Russian forces in April 2026 suffered a net loss of territory controlled in the Ukrainian theater for the first time since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast.
2) The relative decline in the rate of Russian advances may be related in part to annual seasonal patterns.
3) The rate of Russian advances has slowed in 2026 compared to 2025, but the changing character of the war, particularly Russia’s increased use of infiltration tactics over the course of 2025, makes year-on-year comparisons difficult.
4) The Kremlin uses Russian infiltration tactics in part to exaggerate Russian control of terrain.
5) ISW has reviewed and refined its mapping data and methodology, identifying and rectifying some data artifacts that did not affect the visible map geometry but did affect some calculations of area. These changes have not affected ISW’s previously assessed trendlines of the Russian rate of advance.
6) Russian milbloggers identified problems with the Russian air campaign and assessed that Russian forces may not be able to take advantage of reported increased bombing capabilities.
7) Russian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
8) Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian air defense system during their April 30 to May 1 overnight strike against Krasnodar Krai.
9) Russian forces launched 163 drones toward Ukraine overnight.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-2-2026/
The end of April round-up by ISW is worth reading. I'd add to the list that a certain amount of shuffling Russian forces is happening, such as the moves away from Sumy to the frontline further south (reported ^^) which now seems to be shuffling back toward Sumy.
This will degrade Russia's ability to advance while units are in flux and it also puts troop concentrations in reach of Ukraine's rearward drone operations,
Key Takeaways:
1} Russian forces in April 2026 suffered a net loss of territory controlled in the Ukrainian theater for the first time since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast.
2) The relative decline in the rate of Russian advances may be related in part to annual seasonal patterns.
3) The rate of Russian advances has slowed in 2026 compared to 2025, but the changing character of the war, particularly Russia’s increased use of infiltration tactics over the course of 2025, makes year-on-year comparisons difficult.
4) The Kremlin uses Russian infiltration tactics in part to exaggerate Russian control of terrain.
5) ISW has reviewed and refined its mapping data and methodology, identifying and rectifying some data artifacts that did not affect the visible map geometry but did affect some calculations of area. These changes have not affected ISW’s previously assessed trendlines of the Russian rate of advance.
6) Russian milbloggers identified problems with the Russian air campaign and assessed that Russian forces may not be able to take advantage of reported increased bombing capabilities.
7) Russian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
8) Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian air defense system during their April 30 to May 1 overnight strike against Krasnodar Krai.
9) Russian forces launched 163 drones toward Ukraine overnight.
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-2-2026/
I'm not sure what the practicalities are, however,
“Ukraine and the Council of Europe have signed an agreement to establish the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine. This historic signature reminds us that international law must apply to all — with no exceptions, and with no double standards,” said Secretary General Alain Berset. “This is a tribunal to judge between victims and aggressors, between impunity and accountability, because without accountability, there can be no lasting peace for Ukraine and Europe as a whole. “
President Zelenskyy said: “Every war criminal must know: there will be justice, and that includes Russia. Politically, we have already made big progress, and I am grateful to the Council of Europe and to everyone showing leadership. Justice takes time, but it must happen, I am sure. And today’s agreement and this tribunal give us a real chance to bring justice for the crime of aggression. Other institutions don’t have the tools to do this. And we need to show clearly: aggression leads to punishment, and we must make it happen together.”
http://www.coe.int/en/web/portal/-/ukraine-and-the-council-of-europe-sign-agreement-on-establishing-a-special-tribunal-for-the-crime-of-aggression-against-ukraine
An article about Ukraine's ability to degrade the accuracy of Russia's ballistic missiles that use global navigation satellite system (GNSS). There are a lot of ingredients to spoil their targetting, foremost is probably that GNSS jammers are a lot closer to the missiles than the satellite system.
The missiles will continue to explode as designed if launched from 200 miles away, but up to 200m away from their intended target, which is adequate as a military win but may have unintended consequences elsewhere.
http://missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukraine-jam-russian-ballistic
President Putin asked President Trump to call on Ukraine to honour a ceasefire on 8th-9th May for Russia's Victory Day Parade. This has the dual effect of showing the US that Russia is making attempts at peace and allows a Russian centrepiece to be displayed to the home crowd, albeit without tanks, missiles and prominent foreign dignitaries.
Russia hasn't communicated the terms so, in a clever political move, President Zelensky announced a unilateral ceasefire to begin at midnight on the 5th (into 6th) that will last for as long as Russia honours it. This trumps the overture to Trump and keeps Russia on the back foot; we'll see how important a ceasefire on the 9th is.
I say "keeps" because it's obvious to more critical thinkers in the US that a Russia that is winning shouldn't be asking the US to a) intervene and b) consider that intervention to be necessary.
That message getting out in the US, including to less critical thinkers on Fox News,
Former US presidential envoy for Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg said Ukraine deserves “full credit” for its battlefield performance against Russia, arguing that Moscow is losing the war and failing to achieve its strategic goals.
President Zelensky said,
"As of today, there has been no official appeal to Ukraine regarding the modality of a cessation of hostilities that is being claimed on Russian social media. We believe that human life is far more valuable than any anniversary “celebration”. In this regard, we are announcing a ceasefire regime starting at 00:00 on the night of May 5–6. In the time left until that moment, it is realistic to ensure that silence takes effect. We will act reciprocally starting from that moment. It is time for Russian leaders to take real steps to end their war, especially since Russia’s Defense Ministry believes it cannot hold a parade in Moscow without Ukraine’s goodwill." TwitterX (4th May)
Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha,
“If Moscow is prepared to end hostilities, it can do so already tomorrow night. Ukraine is ready. This is a serious proposal to end the war and turn to diplomacy.”
AND
“May 6th will show whether Moscow is serious and what it actually wants – peace or military parades.”
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/75372
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/75356
Russia appears to be attempting to support their advances in Hryshyne and Rodynske by establishing greater drone forces in Pokrovsk to strike Ukraine's logistics.
Greater drone forces in Pokrovsk would also allow Russian forces to stabilise the Dnipropokrovsk region, which is where Ukraine has been gaining ground.
"The Russian military command may be preparing to intensify offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction by regrouping Russian forces in the area and establishing drone control points in northwestern Pokrovsk to gain control of the low-altitude tactical airspace."
Well, there's a four day wait to see what will happen in the area. All it takes is for one drone to go into Ukraine from the stockpile and that victory day parade would be pretty vulnerable...
to stabilise the Dnipropokrovsk region
Should of course read, "Dnipropetrovsk"
Why do I never spot typos first time out!
Russia has never observed a peace treaty requested by Ukraine; not sure why Ukraine needs to observe the anniversary of the ending of the war that was born of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.
Because Ukraine are being the better person here. If they stop and Russia breaks the truce, Ukraine can literally rain on their parade and Russia looks bad both ways. That's a huge win for Ukraine.
If they stop and Russia breaks the truce...
Guess what happened overnight http://www.kyivpost.com/post/75508
Looks like that parade is looking a bit shaky then. I almost feel like Zelensky should do an "Ankh-Morpok fireman" and say something like "Nice parade you've got planned. Would be a shame if someone flooded your city with drones...".
To save face at the parade, Putin _could_ move his air defence, but then I guess I'd just use those drones on all the target with suddenly less effective air defence.
Putin has shown weakness by begging Ukraine, via the US, for a ceasefire for his pathetic parade. I’d love to see Ukraine at least fly some drones over and drop leaflets saying “boom you’re dead” or some such .
Looks like that parade is looking a bit shaky then. I almost feel like Zelensky should do an "Ankh-Morpok fireman" and say something like "Nice parade you've got planned. Would be a shame if someone flooded your city with drones...".
To save face at the parade, Putin _could_ move his air defence, but then I guess I'd just use those drones on all the target with suddenly less effective air defence.
Ukraine left it alone last year, having been approached by other countries,
"But nevertheless, this is not the first time that other countries are approaching us with the fact that they are going to the territory of Russia and would like it to be safe at this moment. There is such diplomacy, this format of diplomacy. We are very careful and respectful of other countries and hear - we hear what we are asked about and what we are asked for," the head of state said. (translated from) http://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1068862.html
The foreign contingent is much smaller this year, but the EU has shown that it will stand with EU states rather than Ukraine and PM Fico of Slovakia will probably be in Moscow
Ukraine could do some sort of embarrassing stunt?
Drop leaflets with some facts wrriiten on them in Red Sq.
Or something similar.
Humiliate Putin somehow.
It appears Russia has already broken the ceasefire. I’d like to see drones decimating the parade.
Things are heating up in the run-up to Moscow's May 9th celebration.
Ukraine's drones struck a huge military logistics complex just outside the outer ring of air defences (AD) that currently serves Moscow city. The irony is that AD resources have been withdrawn from military sites to protect the city ahead of the 9th
Ukrainian drones launched a massive overnight attack across Russia, reportedly striking a key military logistics facility near Moscow just days before the Kremlin’s May 9 Victory Day parade.
Russian monitoring channels and Ukrainian OSINT sources said drones targeted the Nara production and logistics complex in Naro-Fominsk, southwest of Moscow.
President Zelensky said last night (Wednesday),
...Zelensky said Russia had received a “clear proposal” from Kyiv for a halt in fighting and a transition to diplomacy but responded only with intensified military activity.
“Russia has fought to the point where even their main parade already depends on us,” Zelensky said. “And this is a clear signal: it is time to end this.”
Russia has been signalling the importance of May 9th with a series of nuclear sabre-rattling missile tests,
Ahead of the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow, Russia has announced missile tests at the Kura test site in the Ust-Kamchatka region, involving systems capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
According to the report by the Kamchatka Krai Ministry of Emergency Situations, the tests will take place from May 6 to May 10. Authorities warned that access to the area is strictly prohibited, including for both civilians and equipment.
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/75590
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/75579
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/75542
Peter Magyar's official day for assuming office is Saturday 9th (it keeps appearing) and Hungary's new leadership is already working for Ukraine,
Hungary has returned funds and valuables belonging to Ukraine’s state-owned Oschadbank that were seized earlier this year, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday, May 6.
In a Telegram post, Zelensky described the move as an “important step” in bilateral relations, adding that the assets are now fully back on Ukrainian territory.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/75564
