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False-flagging of "shadow fleet" tankers is losing its appeal because it causes interceptions at sea. The fleet will have to sail openly and legally to avoid stop-checks, but that opens them up to sanctions-busting enforcement instead,
"A US seizure of a Russian‑flagged tanker and a new wave of UK-EU enforcement have punctured the appeal of the Russian register for shadow fleet operators
US seizure of the Russian‑flagged Marinera shattered assumptions that Moscow’s registry offered protection from interdiction
Reflagging to Russia has collapsed in 2026, with only two shadow fleet tankers switching by late March
UK-French operations targeting stateless and falsely flagged vessels signal a new phase of coordinated European enforcement"
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156751/Russia-flag-switch-loses-appeal-for-shadow-fleet-operators
In case anyone is wondering why tartan netting is strung across Ukraine's roads to protect travellers from Russian drone strikes then it's because Scotland donated 280 tonnes of old salmon farm nets.
Several European countries send nets from different industries, e.g. Netherlands from flower bulb farms, while Italy is now considering incentivising fishing companies to make donations.
Trawler nets, built to stand the rigours of the ocean floor, will stop the heavier 12kg Lancet drones travelling at 70mph.
Traditional nets made from hair are highly prized, so if anyone knows of an hirsute reader in Scotland who could contribute... 😉
"ROME, April 1 (Reuters) - Italian senators have proposed a plan to incentivise fishing companies that donate discarded nets to help shield Ukraine from Russian drone attacks, a document showed on Wednesday.
Ukraine has this year stepped up the installation of anti-drone nets over roads in frontline areas as it faces mass Russian drone attacks on hospitals, infrastructure and civilian traffic."https://www.gov.scot/news/supporting-ukraines-defence-against-russia/
https://www.reuters.com/world/italian-bill-offers-incentives-fishing-nets-shield-ukraine-drones-2026-04-01/
I haven't had a chance to read through these three Stefan Korshak posts yet,
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/mar-27-2026-day-1492a-baltic-fires
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/mar-27-2026-day-1492b-continued
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/mar-27-2026-day-1492c-continued
Traditional nets made from hair are highly prized, so if anyone knows of an hirsute reader in Scotland who could contribute...
I think it's his duty to do his bit, isn't it ? 🙂
Very interesting links thanks Timba.
The "reply" in the link is also a good read as well.
Wasn't sure where to post this, but seems Orban is looking to frame Ukraine to garner support ahead of the next election.
BBC News - Hungary alleges plot to blow up gas pipeline ahead of election
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj60x206dx1o
BBC News - Hungary alleges plot to blow up gas pipeline ahead of election
Serbia's President Vucic said that it was "geopolitical games". It's strange that whatever the truth of the incident, the current advantage lies with PM Orban
An interesting opinion article on how declining European industry and its automotive sector are a good fit for scaling up the defence industry.
Rheinmetall is looking at VW's Osnabrück plant to build Lynx fighting vehicles and KNDS is looking at a railway rolling stock plant to produce tanks.
Romania has several Soviet-era plants designed to switch from civilian to military production easily and industry as a whole has the necessary expertise in logistics, supply networks and scalability.
It doesn't take much imagination to see the link between modern cars full of microchips and motors to drone manufacture for both land, sea and air.
Your Porsche wiper motor might have the same part number as a heavy drone lift motor 🙂
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/72897
In diplo-speak "international partners" have requested Ukraine suspend its airstrikes on Russian oil refineries.
If it is the US, then Ukraine is in a good position to extract immediate concessions that the WH can't later refuse. Ukraine is expecting a visit from ace negotiators Witkoff and Kushner this week.
I get the feeling that because Kyrylo Budanov believes that the Iran war will be over soon that "international partners" will be put in a diplomatic holding pattern.
The head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Budanov, confirmed that international partners have requested Ukraine suspend its airstrikes on Russian oil refineries due to rising global energy prices triggered by the war in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported on Sunday, April 5.
Budanov revealed that Kyiv has been approached regarding the regular drone attacks, though he did not disclose which specific allies issued the plea. “I will answer this diplomatically: we are receiving some signals regarding this,” he said.
- Novoryssisk oil terminal/port attacked last night, hopefully taken offline. Not sure how many oil export terminals Russia has left!
In diplo-speak "international partners" have requested Ukraine suspend its airstrikes on Russian oil refineries.
If it is the US, then
- Novoryssisk oil terminal/port attacked last night, hopefully taken offline. Not sure how many oil export terminals Russia has left!
Saw that. Seems Zelensky has given his answer to an outrageous request that they stop their desperate existential fight. Just so Trumps ratings aren't harmed because 'mericans might have to pay a bit more to fill their cars up. I don't like paying more for petrol and everything else either. I blame Trump, not Zelensky though and I support his right to national self defence. Even if that exacerbates the energy crisis caused by the US. The absolute brass neck of that request if it was the US, is astonishing.
Especially astonishing when Trump is currently threatening to destroy all the Iranian oil infrastructure.
I know he's thick but how does the hypocrisy of those two positions not occur?
Ukraine is expecting a visit from ace negotiators Witkoff and Kushner this week.
Oi, this thread is supposed to be serious.
Witkoff and Kushner, the Laurel and Hardy of world diplomacy. Really hope Zelensky puts both on show in his version of the oval office. The don't have the cards.
“Ukraine, please don’t play those cards you don’t have” DJT
APN notably talking about the options for Russia.
This is remarkable.
Witkoff and Kushner, the Laurel and Hardy of world diplomacy. Really hope Zelensky puts both on show in his version of the oval office. The don't have the cards.
Nothing will happen coz Strait of Hormuz is many times more damaging to the world than the Ukraine war.
A few weaponry bits and pieces:
Ukraine's Fire Point, maker of the Flamingo missile amongst others, is looking at the development of a low-cost analogue to Patriot and plans to intercept its first ballistic missile next year. This is an ambitious target and will involve European companies with expertise in radar, targetting and comms.
"If we can decrease it to less than $1 million, it will be ... a game changer in air defence solutions," he said in an interview. "We plan to intercept the first ballistic missile at the end of 2027."
Shtilierman declined to name the European companies involved in the discussions to develop the new system but said Fire Point is "deeply interested" in collaboration on radar, missile target-seeking and communications systems - areas where it lacks expertise.
European companies including Weibel, Hensoldt, SAAB and Thales have good radar solutions, he noted.
The BAE Systems Bofors Tridon Mk2, made in Sweden, has just been contracted for supply to Ukraine to combat slower aircraft ranging from drones to cruise missiles. It's a vehicle-mounted single 40 mm Bofors cannon firing programmable airburst ammunition that doesn't rely on a direct hit to down the aircraft. It can also be used to defend against land-based targets.
Ukraine has recently used the Swedish Saab Bofors Dynamics RBS-15 Gungnir (Odin's spear) anti-ship missile, possibly due to difficulties in producing their home-grown Neptune and Long Neptune missiles following Russian strikes on manufacturing plants. The RBS-15 is smaller and, dependent on models compared, has less range than the Neptune (the Long Neptune version has 3x the range of any RBS-15 variant).
Ukraine is struggling to either produce or source enough miniature jet engines for its drone and missile fleet. European producers are currently manufacturing at their limits (original reporting by Reuters, now widely sourced)
https://www.baesystems.com/en-us/product/tridon-mk2
https://www.saab.com/products/the-rbs15-family
"President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that Russian forces are currently concentrating their main military efforts near Oleksandrivsk and Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73364
US VP JD Vance criticises Europe for meddling in Hungary's elections as, without a trace of irony, he meddles in Hungary's elections (also spotted by caher in another thread)
Witkoff and Kushner, the Laurel and Hardy of world diplomacy. Really hope Zelensky puts both on show in his version of the oval office. The don't have the cards.
Nothing will happen coz Strait of Hormuz is many times more damaging to the world than the Ukraine war.
Nothing will happen coz President Zelensky is many times better as a person. The temptation must be strong though
Keep an eye on Alex Vindman
He's a retired US Army Lt. Col, former Director (Europe) of the US National Security Council and a key witness in the first impeachment of President Trump over the Ukraine/Biden/Trump scandal.
He also turned out to be the "smoking gun" that started the inquiry and is of Ukrainian heritage, born in Kyiv
He's running for Senator in Florida, which I'm sure will please Trump
We're approaching the 11th April deadline for the ending of US sanctions relief in favour of Russia and a shaky ceasefire between the US and Iran has been negotiated.
President Trump has threatened 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran.
US-led peace negotiations are also due this month in Kyiv (now postponed due to the recent ceasefire with Iran). I'm not holding my breath but, if applied, sanctions and tariffs would send a clear message, despite Russian exports to the US being at a low-level compared to 2021.
US VP JD Vance said yesterday that President Zelensky had made "scandalous" remarks about PM Orban of Hungary. In a breath-taking statement to media Vance said,
"It's completely scandalous," Vance said. "You should never have a foreign head of government... threatening the head of government of an allied nation." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/vance-hits-out-scandalous-zelenskiy-comments-about-hungarys-orban-2026-04-08/
UK SecDef John Healey said today that three Russian subs were detected in and around UK waters earlier this year and were surveilled for more than a month. Norway and the UK made it clear to the subs that they had been detected and they eventually left without obvious damage to infrastructure.
Healey said the Russian operation involved an Russian Akula class attack submarine and two specialist submarines from Moscow's Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research (GUGI).
"They are designed to survey underwater infrastructure during peacetime, and sabotage it in conflict," Healey said.
After detecting the Russian vessels passing into international waters, Britain sent a frigate, a support tanker and a maritime patrol aircraft to monitor their movements. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-tracked-russian-submarines-north-atlantic-month-2026-04-09/
Another patient and clever operation.
That's brilliant, in the most literal sense. Wish they could do something similar to the Kerch bridges.
How the **** do the Russians not spot 30 50kg drone deliveries though? That's going to be a massive aircraft and pretty noisy too, 'low acoustic signature ' being a relative term to other enormous drones I'm sure.
How the **** do the Russians not spot 30 50kg drone deliveries though?
Maybe disguised in Amazon boxes. The operators must have laughed their socks off when that lot went bang!
I watched a YouTube video on variable pitch rotor quad drones (longer, slower, wider blades with motors geared down for torque rather than speed) and this seems to make the noise significantly less than the conventoinal death-whine of the quads that are used with RPGs. I could see how using these at a busy time or when people were "busy" with other things could slip by unnoticed.
Who knew? Ukraine supplies Europe's wind farms with specialised steel tubes. Both the UK and French projects should be running by winter 2026-2027,
"Ukrainian industrial giant Interpipe, a leading global exporter and manufacturer of seamless pipes, produced and shipped nearly 2,500 tons of specialized steel pipes for an offshore 1.4 GWh wind farm project in the North Sea off the UK coast, 69 kilometers from Suffolk."
"According to the company’s website, Interpipe also shipped nearly 250 tons of seamless pipes for another offshore wind project located near Normandy, France. It involves 62 wind turbines." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73671
It's widely reported that Ukraine's existing income from agriculture is at further risk because of the war with Iran.
It was already under strain because Russia seized stored grain and farmland in the Donbas region when it invaded, followed up by mined agricultural land and attacks on Ukraine's storage and loading facilities on the Black Sea coast.
The increased cost of fertiliser and fuel is hitting farmers badly.
Economically and militarily Russia seems to be stretched, while the popularity of the state is falling in both official and unofficial polling.
Russia is pouring its military efforts into pushing west from the area around Hulyaipole towards Zaporizhia City while its defence of other southern areas where Ukraine is making incremental advances aren't getting reinforcements.
Despite this, and reportedly deploying reserve forces to the push west, Russia isn't making significant advances.
The sanctions relief that Russia briefly enjoyed finished today, unless President Trump extends the relief, and in Hungary it's looking like the leadership will change which could free the EU $90bn loan up.
That will also depend on the actions of Hungary's allies within the EU; in March, PM Fico of Slovakia threatened to block the loan if PM Orban was voted out and the Druzhba pipeline was still closed.
An interesting hint of peace from Ukraine's Kyrylo Budanov, former head of military intelligence and current head of the Presidential Office,
Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s head of the Presidential Office and the country’s key negotiator, said the war with Russia may not last much longer, expressing optimism that ongoing talks could soon lead to a settlement.
“They all understand the war needs to end. That’s why they are negotiating,” Budanov said in an interview to Bloomberg, published on Friday, April 10. “I don’t think it will be long.”
Different messaging is coming from President Zelensky who believes that President Putin will lean further into the war.
Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is currently in the US according to "sources", but Russia denies that it signifies peace talks.
Media sources:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73669
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73673
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73681
US Senators Jeanne Shaheen (Dem) and Thom Tillis (Rep) introduced the bipartisan acronym BLOCK PUTIN Act, or as it's known on Sundays "Barring Leverage and Obstruction that Contributes to Kremlin Profits Undermining Transatlantic Interests and NATO Act".
This seeks to call the US admin and PM Orban out for their stance on the agreed EU $90bn loan and encouraging trade supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's specific to Hungary, which could be amended to include others should the bill come anywhere near to passing into law,
“When the rest of Europe is rightfully weaning off Russian energy, Hungary has doubled down,” said Ranking Member Shaheen ("Ranking" refers to her position as most senior opposition member of a Senate Committee).
“Hungary’s payments for Russian oil and gas to the tune of billions of euros has buoyed Putin’s finances and bolstered Russia’s war effort against Ukraine. That’s why I’m proud to introduce the bipartisan BLOCK PUTIN Act, which will hold senior Hungarian government officials accountable for obstructing European assistance to Ukraine and for facilitating Hungary’s continued reliance on Russian energy past the required EU phase out. It is beyond belief that Vice President Vance is reportedly planning on visiting Hungary to provide an electoral boost to a corrupt government that continues to help fund Russia’s war machine. If we want this war in Ukraine to end, the Trump Administration needs to be consistent in holding our Allies to the same standards; no one, especially Viktor Orban, should get a free pass.”
Separately, the Kyiv Post fact checks Vance in Hungary https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73689
The UK has come in for criticism about its lack of action on Russian shadow fleet tankers. Not a single one has been detained in the fortnight since PM Starmer upped the enforcement ante, and hundreds have sailed past the UK since the original announcement in June 2025,
"According to the report, the Attorney General for England and Wales, Lord Richard Hermer, had provided legal counsel on how these tankers could be stopped within British territorial waters to prevent the delivery of sanctioned oil to Russia’s allies. His recommendations suggested that special forces and officers from the National Crime Agency (NCA) could board the vessels."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73718
https://www.government.se/statements/2025/06/joint-actions-to-further-counter-the-shadow-fleet/
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/shadow-fleet-set-to-be-interdicted-in-uk-waters-in-latest-blow-to-russia
Has the Russian invasion and subsequent battles reshaped warfare away from just simply more = better.
It now appears just having more tanks and APC vehicles than your enemy , with the skills to use them gave you a huge advantage
Now, a team of say 12 men with an array of drones from ,hypothetically speaking, A drone mother ship with loitering , thermal , NV and attack capabilty ( mini drones ) ,plus a load of larger drones with say a 10kg payload and a lot of smaller drone with say a 2kg payload will hinder a large attack
This team could sit in a prepared position and hold off a large number of tanks , IFV and infantry with low risk. A direct hit from a heavy bomb or missile would destroy them, if you can locate them electronically. With alot of drones at their disposal stopping the foot soldiers by direct hits or dropping grenades from height with small drones , then larger suicide drones take on the mbt / ifv .
I dont know how you would avoid huge casualities if old school tactics were used. Ground based drones with machine guns , or remote operated dug in machine gun pits via optical cable . Coupled with manpads means the need for manpower and vehicles has been replaced by drone and anti drone tech , and all tactics revised and procurement changed as the requirements for tanks / helos / APC's has basically been nulified and the need for autonomous remote controlled drones of varying sizes is now critical.
unless the enemy can jam your drones
It's just an evolutionary extension of the basic point of contact. Early on advantages in the development may benefit the little guy like Ukraine over the far bigger Russia .. but not forever.
The risk is being left behind; from being blinkered to how things was fought/done before.
Maybe biased in my opinion here, but, I feel the USA are at bigger risk of being left behind because their defense industry is focused on skimming as much money as possible from defence .. recently an article explained how the US military was advised to take lessons from Ukraine regarding high numbers of cheap easy to produce drones .. yet as of 2026 continued to go forward with the hugely expensive switchblade 600 at a cost of around £125k each.
*Even the US copy of the Shahid drone doubled in price
Interesting ideas, but if both sides are employing the same tactics, they it just becomes a drone battle with all the human combatants miles away.
Once drone superiority has been established infantry still needed to secure territory otherwise what is the point?
It does 'democratise' war to a degree. It lowers the entry point to having some kind of military effectiveness. It also allows smaller states to nullify (to a degree) some of the costly, high tech advantages that larger militaries once had. Also, as Ukraine have shown, it can make predatory acquisition of a smaller country's territory extremely costly in lives and equipment, no matter how big the agressor's military inventory is. I'm sure China and Taiwan are taking big lessons from this.
All of this is probably temporary, tactics and technology will evolve and probably put effective high tech counter drone technology back in the hands of larger wealthier countries.
Once drone superiority has been established
Hard to achieve that currently, when a bottomless pit of cottage-industry, 3D printed drones are available*, cheap enough to be used against individual infantrymen. Until some new disruptive technology comes along. At least in the same sense as conventional "air superiority" when expensive assets like fast jets, AWACs and missile AD systems are very finite.
*Ukraine is estimated to have manufactured or procured 4 million drones in 2025, with a forecast of 7 million for this year.
I believe, but am not certain, that the advantage has always been with the insurgents in an invasion.