Forum menu
The EU is supporting Hungary and Slovakia as bloc members and have asked Ukraine to repair the Druzhba pipeline that supplies Russian oil. Those oil supplies will be stopped next year under EU agreement. The EU will provide repair money and tech support, but accepts that Ukraine won't prioritise repairs above its own infrastructure.
What's the betting that repairs won't be completed before Hungary's elections on April 12th?
What are the implications for PM Orban's anti-Ukraine campaign stance?
I find it hard to believe that this will turn his 10% disadvantage around, however 20% of the population is undecided. There doesn't appear to be a viable vote-splitting party to complicate things; everyone else is polling in single figure %
Slovakia's governing coalition under PM Fico is faltering and the President's own party, a Fico ally, is hovering around the threshold % required to enter Parliament.
So far the early snap election in 2026 hasn't materialised. Fico's New Year address called 2026 a pre-election year, but this could be a reference to scheduled 2027 elections.
The EU finds itself in the position of adding to Russia's coffers and being beholden to a couple of minor members who have between them unlawfully confiscated Ukrainian cash and gold, withdrawn electrical grid support from Ukraine and stopped the €90bn loan to Ukraine that they aren't contributing to.
There are differences between Ursula von der Leyen and other European bodies over her over-reaching by stepping into EC (António Costa) and Foreign Affairs and Security (Kaja Kallas) territory.
In fairness to VDL, the modern world has developed in a way that wasn't anticipated by the EU's neat compartmentalising of responsibilities; the EU is overdue for reform.
And on that note,
"Look at our British friends, the UK, who have been talking about reset, who are now talking about alignment, and some of whom mention the term customs unions," Barrot said.
"So let us say to our British friends that if they stand ready to come back to the single market, with all associated privileges and duties, they will be met with open arms," he added.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/french-minister-uk-would-be-met-with-open-arms-if-it-returned-eu-single-market-2026-03-17/
I've been watching Russian moves on the Telegram app and throttling internet access in general for a while now. It's regularly reported in Russian newspapers too (see Steve Rosenberg on Youtube "Reading Russia").
I read an interesting piece of reasoning too. Ideas of a coup are remote, IMHO, due to the strengthening of Rosgvardiya defences since Yevgeny Prigozhin advanced on Moscow in 2023.
"Over the past week, mobile internet has been completely down every day in parts of central Moscow, St Petersburg and other major cities, according to Reuters reporters in those areas and eight senior foreign diplomats in Russia.
"These measures are taking place," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters when asked about restrictions to messaging apps and internet service.
"They are partly related to the fact that a number of foreign companies refuse to comply with the norms of Russian legislation, and partly due to security measures against the threat of Ukrainian drones."
Attack drones can use cellular networks to aid navigation."The end of Moscow's war in Afghanistan in 1989 caused major social ructions in Russia with returning veterans fuelling a wave of lawlessness that blighted the 1990s. The chaos was compounded by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
"Russia's leaders and security services remember 1991 and they remember what happened to Russia and what happened to them when Moscow stopped a big war in Afghanistan: the country collapsed, the security services were split apart - it was a disaster," said Andrei Soldatov, a Russian investigative journalist who is an expert on the security services.
"What is happening now is that the security services are trying to create a situation in which - if Putin signs a peace deal or if Putin goes for a protracted war - it would not destroy the whole thing." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/great-crackdown-russia-tightens-screws-internet-2026-03-20/
Russia is currently having technical difficulties,
"Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor is reportedly struggling to block all blacklisted resources on the Russian internet as Russian authorities are attempting to slowly throttle access to Telegram. A source at a Russian fixed-line telecommunications operator told Forbes’ Russia service on March 18 that Roskomnadzor has “completely lost control” of its blocking efforts, allowing users to periodically access some previously blocked websites and apps."
"Russian business outlet Kommersant reported on March 18 that the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) expelled Russian State Duma Deputy Andrei Svintsov for actions that “discredited” the LDPR, likely referring to controversial statements that he recently made regarding the blocking of Telegram, virtual private networks (VPNs), and the internet in Russia." https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19-2026/
Péter Szijjártó, Hungary’s foreign minister, has been keeping his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, informed of the details of EU meetings for years, the Washington Post has reported.
The EU has reportedly been limiting confidential information to Hungary by holding meetings in smaller groups, e.g. the EU three, etc.
Further action isn't being contemplated prior to the April elections
Szijjártó is a key player in Viktor Orbán’s Russia-friendly government in Budapest, which has a track record of supporting Moscow’s interests within the European Union and NATO, including attempts to thwart support packages for Ukraine. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72397
EU member Slovenia has just had parliamentary elections resulting in a very narrow win (<1%) for the incumbent Freedom Movement, which had formed a ruling coalition up to the elections described by Wikipedia as social-liberal(Freedom Movement)/centre-left(Social Democrats)/eco-socialist(The Left).
Their main opposition was right-wing populist MP, Janez Janša, who has been PM on three previous occasions over the last couple of decades. Janša (aka Ivan Janša) has drifted slowly to the political right over time and is often compared to Donald Trump,
"Janša was described as a far-right leader by The Independent and by Foreign Policy in 2020. His style of politics has been compared to Donald Trump. He has been dubbed a "MAGA-style populist" by NPR, "the Slovenian Trump" by Der Spiegel, and "mini-Trump" by Deutsche Welle." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janez_Jan%C5%A1a
There were allegations of dirty tricks including phone-tapping and Slovenia was hit by a fuel shortage at the pumps in the week before parliamentary elections, sparking an inquiry into possible violations in fuel trading and logistics management.
From Ukraine's POV it remains to be seen what a new coalition government would look like. Janša would be politically more aligned with Hungary's PM Orban and Slovakia's PM Fico https://www.politico.eu/article/slovenia-election-result-robert-golob-janez-jansa/
There have been protests in Czechia against defence cuts by the right-leaning government there and France is leaning against the right in many of the major cities in municipal elections there.
I'm (still) anticipating US intervention in Ukraine's drone strikes on Russia's O&G export infrastructure as a result of the war in Iran,
MOSCOW, March 23 (Reuters) - The Baltic Sea ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, Russia's largest petroleum export outlets, have suspended exports of crude oil and fuel since Sunday following drone attacks, two industry sources told Reuters on Monday.
The suspension adds to the global shortages caused by Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. https://www.reuters.com/world/fuel-reservoir-russias-primorsk-port-fire-after-drone-attack-governor-says-2026-03-23/
@timba just in case you ever wonder if your posts on this thread go unnoticed or are not appreciated, they don't and they are not. I check this thread every single day and it is my primary resource for keeping updated on Ukraine. I don't post on it very often these days, as I seldom have anything new to add, but I always read every post. Thank you and keep up the good work.
I concur my first thoughts when I was having issues getting on to the site at the weekend was that I hope @timba still has access. Thank you
I'm with bloke, regular reader but infrequent poster as I don't know enough to say anything useful, but interested to learn from those who have more info, keep it up timba
"So let us say to our British friends that if they stand ready to come back to the single market, with all associated privileges and duties, they will be met with open arms," he added.
That will require us not falling into some Reform/Tory/Restore coalition hellscape amongst quite a few stars aligning.
Yep, Timba - good work as usual.
Another big up and thank you from me.
Between you, Chewk 😉 and Paul Warburg I stay up to date with Ukraine. In fact I watch lots of Ukraine stuff on Youtube and only hope that at least half of it is as positive as it sounds.
Here's the latest Stefan Korshak. Going forward I'll only publish links if there's a comment to make. There's a two-parter from last week (13th) on the same sub-stack that I haven't linked to (the title dates must be when he begins to write, rather than the published date, which is often 3-4 days later)
In related news Ukraine info platforms report there are about 200 Ukrainian “drone experts” now “deployed” to Qatar, UAE, Saudia Arabia and Kuwait, and they are just appalled — I say again appalled — at how primitive and unprofessional drone defense standards are in that part of the world. There is a report bouncing around the Ukrainian internet today about someone, my guess the UAE, using $6 million dollar SM-6 missiles to fire salvos at $30,000 Iranian drones — and missing.
Comment: SM-6 is a newer tech solution than Patriot, primarily for naval use but can be used air-to-air and ground-to-air using the same transporter erector launcher as the Tomahawk ground-to-air. All three missiles are now made by Raytheon
I've seen other reports of Gulf Nations leaving their Patriot batteries in auto mode and firing a salvo of eight missiles at one drone. That's a $$ cost ratio around 1000:1 if you bulk buy. It's worse if you only bought a few.
Auto mode means a faster response, but it isn't necessary for slow moving drones and rips through missile stocks. It can also lead to "friendly"-fire disasters.
************
This is particularly interesting in relation to the war in Iran,
LATE ADDITION: Defense of Ukraine is reporting NATO did an naval exercise off shore Portugal in 2025, called REPMUS/Dynamic Messenger, and that the “red” team led by Ukraine and comprising US, British, Spanish and other units competed against the “blue” team, representing NATO forces, in five scenarios, and the Ukrainian-led team defeated the Alliance’s forces in all five scenarios, including “sinking” a NATO frigate and scoring “hits” with Magura sea drones against other warships and simulated cargo ships.
This is apropos particularly of the Strait of Hormuz and US calls for NATO to send ships to unblock it. Anyone paying attention in NATO or heaven forbid the White House might actually check the record and see that as recently as Mar. 2, Ukrainian sea drones smacked into the oil loading terminal in Novorossiysk, and in Dec. 2025 sea drones blew up a Russian missile submarine in port there.
The "deja vu" section in the second link (1485b) is worth a read too
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/mar-20-2026-day-1485a-spring-sprung
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/mar-20-2026-day-1485b-continued
It appears that Ukraine has pulled a big feat off. Nothing too huge (two Zircon hypersonic missiles and a launcher destroyed pre-launch) but another interesting tactic if they reveal how it was done!
Ukraine has been damaging Russian AD systems on Crimea for a while and early yesterday (Tuesday) carried out a strike on a missile transport convoy officially located near Aktachi, however this isn't obvious on a map.
The nearest village is Furmanovka, c10miles NE Sevastopol International Airport in occupied Crimea. If you have a look on a map (link below, NB from 2023. Illustrative only) then it's quite a long way south and I suspect that it's quite difficult for Ukraine to operate there under "normal" circumstances.
According to a Telegram statement, fighters from the Department of Unmanned Systems tracked a column of Bastion-M launchers near the village of Furmanovka in occupied Crimea as it advanced toward firing positions.
“As a result of accurate strikes by reconnaissance units, one of the launchers and two expensive Zircon missiles were destroyed, and another Bastion was damaged,” the HUR said.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72496
It also seems that Ukrainian drones visited some Russian boats "a few miles away" and done some damage.
One example:
https://bsky.app/profile/darthputinkgb.bsky.social/post/3mhulm76lms2o
It can also lead to "friendly"-fire disasters.
I've spoken with gulf war veteran pilots who spoke about the same issues at King Fyed Airport in the 90's. It would seem that the ROE they developed then have all been forgotten since. I'm still to be convinced that the F-15 friendly fire incident at the beginning of the Iran conflict was an air to air engagement and not some badly paid squaddie in a Patriot battery letting the 'auto' function do its thing.
I'm (still) anticipating US intervention in Ukraine's drone strikes on Russia's O&G export infrastructure as a result of the war in Iran,
I think US leverage against Ukraine is very significantly diminished compared to a few months ago. Contrary to the shitgibbon's claims, it seems Ukraine now has a pretty decent hand of cards. The US still wields some influence of course, but far, far less. Thankfully.
I think Zelensky can legitimately claim that the oil price spike caused by the Iran war is directly benefiting Russia and thus harming Ukrainian citizens. As such they are entirely justified in using "kinetic sanctions" to prevent that, even (or especially) if the tangerine toddler doesn't like it.
Effectively using Trump's ill thought out actions, which have increased Russian oil revenue as a justification for what they are doing. There's a beautiful irony in that. If it hurts Russia AND enrages Trump, happy days! 😉
I also think that Ukraine (and Europe) are rapidly making practical changes that mean they are not reliant on the USA and the orange telly-tubby. Ukraine are again showing how resilient, innovative and wise they are.
While Russia is warming up the spring meat attacks, Ukraine is quietly disrupting across every important funding and supply route they can. They are also keeping Russia at bay - and that link above about extending 'kill zones' says a lot about what Russia will experience in the coming weeks and months.
It can also lead to "friendly"-fire disasters.
I've spoken with gulf war veteran pilots who spoke about the same issues at King Fyed Airport in the 90's. It would seem that the ROE they developed then have all been forgotten since. I'm still to be convinced that the F-15 friendly fire incident at the beginning of the Iran conflict was an air to air engagement and not some badly paid squaddie in a Patriot battery letting the 'auto' function do its thing.
Wot? Just watch the video of it happening. Theres no rocket motor smoke, it's a rear impact in all cases and limited damage whereas a patriot would likely blow the thing to bits (much larger warhead)
Wot? Just watch the video of it happening.
Watched them. I agree it's convincing, but it also needs the Kuwaiti F-18 to be carrying more than a couple of sidewinders (they don't) and while I can agree that 'a' friendly shoot down might be possible - although still requires the Kuwaiti CAP to have ignored all his briefings, his IFF, his RWR and presumably the call-sign acknowledgement from the F15s to the tower, and just pull the trigger blindly ...To do that 3 times?
Meanwhile Putin's orcs have attacked Lvlv rather more intensely than before, perhaps emboldened by the Orange Turd's lack of support. Can't think it'll be too long until one of these drones kills someone a NATO country.
Maybe he just doesn't like Eagles.
I think US leverage against Ukraine is very significantly diminished compared to a few months ago.
You have a valid point, no doubt helped by President Trump losing focus on Ukraine and Russia losing up to 40% of seaborne oil capacity because of attacks on different facilities.
Having said that, the 40% is based on a Reuters investigation which is a little light on detail https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72621
Following on from the US agreement to reduce sanctions on manufacturing and associated banks of Belarus, was a trip by President Lukashenko to NKorea. This was probably organised months before, but with sanctions relief comes a bonus to both states, along with Russia.
They all now have unsanctioned banks to leverage, NK can develop in the agreed areas (below) and Russia, through Belarus, can continue to make trades with NK to improve Russia's military lot without the need for cash. The price of gold is on the wane, despite early gains at the beginning of the Iran war due to US$ and inflationary pressures, and historically increases when wars end. Russia has already been dipping into its gold reserve and would probably enjoy the respite.
NK is believed to have benefitted by $7bn to $14bn in military trade with Russia between 2023 and 2025, with some of that in cash.
Belarus continues to increase cooperation with North Korea. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un and North Korean First Deputy Prime Minister Kim Tok Hun on March 25 during Lukashenko’s official visit to North Korea to discuss areas for new bilateral cooperation. Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov told journalists on March 25 that Belarus and North Korea intend to sign a friendship and cooperation agreement during Lukashenko’s visit. Ryzhenkov stated that the parties intend to sign about 10 agreements to strengthen the legal framework of bilateral cooperation, including a fundamental friendship treaty and nine agreements covering agricultural, education, healthcare, commerce, industry, scientific, and information cooperation. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-25-2026/
Apparently we're still talking about the inderdiction of shadow fleet tankers, which has been talked about since June. It seems that the development has been the UK authorising military action to board vessels where they refuse to comply.
The UK and France are launching coordinated operations to interdict and seize Russian ‘shadow fleet’ vessels, with the UK authorised to board ships in its waters and France targeting fraudulently flagged tankers
UK and France aim to add costly disruption to shadow fleet operations with seizures
France focused on economic disruption, while the UK may pursue criminal proceedings against shipowners, operators and crew for sanctions breaches
Moves come ahead of summit where several countries are expected to signal intensified crackdowns on shadow fleet activity in the Baltic and Mediterraneanhttps://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156723/UK-and-France-preparing-to-seize-shadow-fleet-ships
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/nb8-joint-statement-on-the-shadow-fleet
I also think that Ukraine (and Europe) are rapidly making practical changes that mean they are not reliant on the USA and the orange telly-tubby. Ukraine are again showing how resilient, innovative and wise they are.
Good timing, Matt 😊
March 26 (Reuters) - The Pentagon is weighing whether to redirect weapons originally meant for Ukraine to the Middle East, as the war in Iran strains supplies of some of the U.S. military's most critical munitions, the Washington Post reported Thursday, citing three people familiar with the matter.
The weapons that could be redirected include air defense interceptor missiles purchased through a NATO initiative launched last year, under which partner countries buy U.S. arms for Kyiv, the report said. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pentagon-considers-diverting-ukraine-military-aid-middle-east-washington-post-2026-03-26/
They are also keeping Russia at bay
I think that you're right that Russia's spring offensive seems stuck before it reaches the starting blocks. A year of nothing is a possibility and will increase pressure on negotiations in favour of Ukraine
this seems very bad
The Washington Post: On Monday, the Pentagon informed Congress that it plans to reallocate $750 million—originally provided by NATO allies for Ukraine’s weapons procurement under the PURL program—for its own needs. 👇
https://bsky.app/profile/osintradar.bsky.social/post/3mi2am4xus22w
this seems very bad
Not as bad as you might think. Ukraine now is far less reliant on US weapons than Ukraine of 3 or 4 years ago. The long range weapons that they were so desperate for back then, have to a large extent been replaced by domestically manufactured versions. Also 155mm artillery ammunition and other munitions are now produced in country at scale or are available from European partners who have built new plants or expanded production at others.
In fact, despite fighting an existential war, they are now net exporters of defence equipment. Especially in drone and counter drone technology which now completely dominates the battlefield. It's the US and its Gulf allies who have had to reach out to Ukraine for equipment and tech support during the current war with Iran.
Ukraine now arguably has the most capable army in Europe, by some measure. Certainly the one best adapted to the seismic change in battlefield tactics of recent years. The US, UK and just about everyone else has a lot of catching up to do. European countries seem to get this. US hubris, especially under the current regime seems to mean they don't.
its interceptor missiles for the patriot batteries so im not sure Ukraine have an alternative
its interceptor missiles for the patriot batteries so im not sure Ukraine have an alternative
The gulf states blew more Patriot missiles in 1 or 2 days than Ukraine has in 4 years and that includes the early period before they had many other options. They still have a place of course in Ukraine's layered air defence system, but Patriot isn't critical and doesn't quite live up to the hype.
There is reporting to suggest that the European manufactured SAMP/T has outperformed Patriot in Ukraine against Iskander ballistic missiles. For Shaheeds and similar which form the bulk of the threat they are a waste and Ukraine has many better options.
Seems bad to me in that it sounds like the US using EU/Nato funds to purchase their own equipment.
Ukraine now arguably has the most capable army in Europe, by some measure. Certainly the one best adapted to the seismic change in battlefield tactics of recent years. The US, UK and just about everyone else has a lot of catching up to do. European countries seem to get this. US hubris, especially under the current regime seems to mean they don't.
I can't remember where I read it, sorry, but apparently the UK is to stop training Ukrainian soldiers, because a lot of what the British, and various others based here, trainers were teaching them has become out of date as the conflict has changed. To the extent that Ukrainians are teaching the Brits and others their tactics. I don't think that included the US, as you say, they don't think they've anything to learn, the rest of us aren't so arrogant and will listen to anyone who has relevant experience and has developed tactics which work.
this seems very bad
The Washington Post: On Monday, the Pentagon informed Congress that it plans to reallocate $750 million—originally provided by NATO allies for Ukraine’s weapons procurement under the PURL program—for its own needs. 👇
I think that's all a bit over-blown, but let's be clear that if it happens then it won't help Ukraine get US-made weapons promptly.
Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) operates behind a veil of obscurity and AIUI the contracts aren't publicly available, however, NATO deposits money in a US-held pot and the US fulfills the sale.
Where the goods come from is unclear and delivery dates are also unclear, but if the stuff is in stock then it goes out immediately, and the pot is raided for the appropriate $$$ in payment. If not then it gets made for later dispatch.
First of all the reallocation of funds, if it exists, is an intention rather than a current fact, which is why NATO has said,
In response to a query about the report, NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said weapons continue to be delivered to Kyiv."Everything that NATO allies and partners have paid for through PURL has been delivered or continues to flow to Ukraine," she said, referring to the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List, a mechanism that allows European countries to pay for U.S. weapons on behalf of Ukraine.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/whats-in-the-new-us-defense-bill-for-ukraine/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pentagon-considers-diverting-ukraine-military-aid-middle-east-washington-post-2026-03-26/
Both Ukraine and Russia are facing major budget issues.
President Putin is reportedly close to breaking personal contracts with both the populace and billionaire oligarchs. He promised to provide for the people, particularly the elderly. military veterans and families, if they in turn support him.
He promised oligarchs that the state wouldn't seize their businesses and renationalise them in return for their support.
The cost of living and now the economy are forcing change,
At a closed-door meeting, Putin is said to have urged Russian oligarchs to bankroll his war in Ukraine – with at least two of them agreeing to his "proposal.” (KP)
ISW added a bit more detail,
(Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry) Peskov claimed that one participant discussed the necessity of donating a “very large sum of money” (believed to be 100 billion rubles (about $1.22 billion)) to the Russian state, but emphasized that this is a personal decision. (ISW)
That isn't to say that the economy is all going Ukraine's way. Hungary holding up the €90bn EU loan is about to cause major problems if it isn't unjammed in the coming weeks.
Ukraine has serious problems within its own economy and needs urgent reforms to access further money from the IMF. Good relations with the Gulf States are exactly what's needed right now for some down-payments,
"Ukraine may reportedly run out of money for its defense within two months, as tens of billions of euros in critical donor support faces multiple threats." (KP)
"Ukraine and Saudi Arabia concluded a defense cooperation agreement on March 27. The Ukrainian Presidential Office reported that Ukraine will help Saudi Arabia with air defenses under the agreement, which also outlines the foundations for further contacts and includes technological cooperation and investments." (ISW)
Sources:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72728
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72734
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-27-2026/
There is reporting to suggest that the European manufactured SAMP/T has outperformed Patriot in Ukraine against Iskander ballistic missiles.
It's almost impossible to compare them. There are pros and cons:
Patriot has almost twice the range of SAMP/T but relies more on hitting the target. SAMP/T spreads warhead fragments across a wider area
Both suffer with software problems and both are being continuously upgraded with data gathered in Ukraine (which might explain some of the software problems)
SAMP/T is very definitely quicker to deploy (15mins v 30mins for Patriot) and can be driven to site at faster speeds too.
The new Franco-Italian SAMP/T NG is the one to watch. Recently donated by France for testing by Ukraine, it closes the range gap with Patriot and has a brand new radar system.
It's made by MBDA (Airbus, BAE Systems and Leonardo) who also make Storm Shadow/SCALP EG https://www.mbda-systems.com/media/20611/download
It's almost impossible to compare them.
I would argue it's very easy to compare them! Whilst of course acknowledging any differences.
"Compare, verb, estimate, measure, or note the similarity or dissimilarity between" 😉
Patriot has almost twice the range of SAMP/T but relies more on hitting the target. SAMP/T spreads warhead fragments across a wider area
Depends which Patriot version. The PAC-2 has a large warhead and proximity fuze, the PAC-3 a very small warhead because it relies more on a direct hit and kinetic energy. Advantages being a smaller, more maneuverable missile which takes up less space on the launcher (3 missiles replace 1 in the earlier version).
When I did my advanced GM course, many, many moons ago and long before Patriot was even dreamt of, we referred to these different types of systems as "missiles" and "hitiles". PAC-2 is a missile and PAC-3 is a hitile. I believe Ukraine has both.
For those concerned about how the increase in oil prices due to the Iran war might be benefiting Russia, this Paul Warburg video is worth a watch. Please ignore the slightly hyperbolic and click-baity title, the content is better than that. Long story short, it doesn't matter how much a barrel of oil is theoretically worth to Russia if they can't get it to market.
I would argue it's very easy to compare them! Whilst of course acknowledging any differences.
"Compare, verb, estimate, measure, or note the similarity or dissimilarity between" 😉
Well, yes, of course you can compare them, I wonder how valid it is 😜
There is reporting to suggest that the European manufactured SAMP/T has outperformed Patriot in Ukraine against Iskander ballistic missiles.
Spookily, one was a French report from a manufacturing country.
It's acknowledged that the report was only made after Russia spent two years analysing Patriot, its radar emissions and attack profile. Russia then adapted the Iskander BM specifically to evade Patriot.
SAMP/T uses X-band radar as opposed to the Patriot F-G band so isn't affected by Iskander EW mods.
The report was biased un peu!
Depends which Patriot version.
More of a general comment, really. Russia appeared to have made specific mods for only the PAC3 MSE variant.
The SAMP/T Aster 30 block 0 missile has minimal anti-BM capability. The block 1 is better and the block 1 NT better still, so the same version discussion applies. All have been used in Ukraine.
Apologies for the nerdery, someone will be along to accuse me of onanism
Really interesting insight into the nuts and bolts of Ukrainian domestic drone manufacture, through the eyes of one manufacturing company. Some of the stuff it covers:
- How they changed from a logistics to a miltec company following the invasion
- How they grew and innovated
- How government legislation to streamline the procurement and tendering processes was vital to get hardware to the frontline in a timely manner
- How product development and specification is driven by end users, not government bureaucrats which increases effectiveness and provides a feedback loop for continuous improvement (Jeez - UK defence procurement could learn a few things here)!
- How units order their drones from a website "an Amazon for drones"
- How manufacturing and warehousing is geographically dispersed which enhances resilience and safety, but complicates logistics
- Their plans when the war ends
Quite a bit more too. As an aside, I usually find Kyiv Independant videos to be pretty good, whatever the subject. A little less superficial and frivolous than many and not afraid to show negatives as well as positives. I.e. actual journalism and not just tubthumping pro-Ukrainian propaganda.
Ukraine now arguably has the most capable army in Europe, by some measure. Certainly the one best adapted to the seismic change in battlefield tactics of recent years. The US, UK and just about everyone else has a lot of catching up to do. European countries seem to get this. US hubris, especially under the current regime seems to mean they don't.
I can't remember where I read it, sorry, but apparently the UK is to stop training Ukrainian soldiers, because a lot of what the British, and various others based here, trainers were teaching them has become out of date as the conflict has changed. To the extent that Ukrainians are teaching the Brits and others their tactics. I don't think that included the US, as you say, they don't think they've anything to learn, the rest of us aren't so arrogant and will listen to anyone who has relevant experience and has developed tactics which work.
Partially accurate. One of the other considerations that informed the change in approach is the inability to conduct their version of combined arms live fire due to the limitations of UK ranges/airspace.
Another important element of infantry training is battle inoculation, we simply can't do that in the UK to the depth the Ukrainians need with the spectrum of equipment they are operating and on similar terrain.
We're significantly constrained which is why we go abroad to for certain (combined arms ) live fire serials
More power to them, their Army will be better for it.
*They've also had some issues with desertion so there is a control element to this as well.
Russian forces have made some evidenced advances in the significant "fortress belt" city of Kostyantynivka. The advances don't signify control and it remains to be seen whether Russian forces can consolidate the ground and maintain logistics.
Russian forces advanced into the "fortress belt" cities in 2014 during their initial invasion, but only for a brief period. Ukraine has held the cities and the H20 national highway since then. The H20 intersects with the greater road network at several points, including the so-called international M-class routes.
Kostyantynivka is the southern-most city in the "fortress belt" and a Russian advance on the H20 would need to pass through three other cities held by Ukraine.
Cities and towns are prized because they offer logistics routes, hard cover in basements for command, troops, etc and high buildings for aerials, radar and other uses.
The city has been under Russian attack for weeks now with alleged illegal use of phosphorus munitions against people and heavy guided bombing with 1500kg FAB-1500 (675kg warhead). Phosphorus is legal, but only for target marking and forming smoke.
President Zelensky said yesterday (31st),
“They told the American side they would take the east of our country in two months… and that Ukraine has two months to withdraw"
Russian forces have seized around 50% less land in Ukraine for the six months from October 2025 to March 2026 as compared to a similar period in 2024-25, although they claimed full control of the Luhansk region of the Donbas today. Ukraine has been clinging on to <1% for some time, so this isn't a big surprise.
"Ukraine has been targeting Russian Baltic Sea port and oil infrastructure for the past week (since March 23) in Leningrad Oblast, causing significant damage at the Kinef oil refinery in Kirishi, the Novatek Ust-Luga in Ust-Luga, the Transneft oil terminal at the port of Primorsk, and a project 23550 Purga-class patrol icebreaker at the Vyborg Shipyard."
"Bloomberg noted that the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga decreased the number of tankers loading crude oil from 18 tankers between the two ports from March 16 to 22 to six tankers between March 23 to 29 as a result of the Ukrainian strikes. ISW continues to assess that Russia’s ability to sell oil is partially a function of its ability to transport it, and continued Ukrainian drone strikes will degrade Russia’s ability to transport oil, which may partially offset the United States’ partial lifting of oil sanctions against Russia."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-31-2026/
Forgetting about its de facto declaration of war on Ukraine by supplying Russia with drones, drone tech and manufacturing tech,
Iran said Kyiv’s deployment of counter-drone specialists to Middle Eastern countries amounted to “material and operational support” for US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72965
It seems that Ukraine was threatened quietly when a “rather hysterical” President Donald Trump apparently applied pressure on NATO allies to help in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
His threats were towards PURL and other US support for Ukraine, despite the war being absolutely nothing to do with either NATO or Ukraine.
"According to three officials, cited by the Financial Times, Trump pushed NATO allies to deploy naval forces to secure the strait but faced resistance from several European capitals, which argued the operation was not feasible amid ongoing conflict and “not our war.”
In response, Trump warned he could halt shipments to PURL, a NATO-backed weapons procurement initiative for Ukraine funded by European countries.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte intervened, urging allies to issue a joint statement signaling support. On March 19, countries including France, Germany, and the UK said they were ready to contribute to efforts ensuring safe passage through the strait.""One official said the statement was rushed after Trump threatened to pull back not only from PURL but from broader support for Ukraine."
"The UK acknowledged military-level discussions with Washington on securing the strait but did not deny that US support for Ukraine had been used as leverage."
"Rubio said US military aid to Ukraine through the PURL mechanism has not yet been affected but did not rule out future diversions.
“If we need something for America, we’re going to keep it for America first,” he said." (Which, as discussed previously, is their right)
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73053
There are, of course, scammers preying on Ukraine,
"Ukrainian law enforcement has uncovered a large-scale scheme involving the theft and resale of drones supplied to the military under the “Army of Drones” program, the Prosecutor General’s Office said on Wednesday, April 1.
According to investigators, a unit commander and two civilian accomplices are suspected of organizing the scheme, which resulted in losses exceeding Hr.15.2 million ($370,000).""Russia has begun dropping fake Ukrainian money with “hostile” QR codes in the border Chernihiv and Sumy regions, according to local officials on Thursday.
The bills resemble Ukraine’s hryvna banknotes but with an extra banner on top depicting a QR code, with texts that say, “Share the coordinates and help start a fire. You will get real [money],” according to photos shared by Oleh Hrihorov, the head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration.""Ukrainian authorities said they have uncovered a fraudulent scheme in the demining sector, where suspects falsely claimed to have cleared already demined areas to siphon Hr.6.3 million (about $144,000) from the government."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73027
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73092
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73100