So, just looked at the map. Crimea only has two roads in and one of them is a bridge that surely isn't there any more. This is going to be pretty difficult to re-take isn't it?
So, just looked at the map. Crimea only has two roads in and one of them is a bridge that surely isn’t there any more. This is going to be pretty difficult to re-take isn’t it?
Once the abandoned West bank of the Dnipro is reoccupied by Ukraine it will put parts of Crimea and the road routes to it in HIMARS range. If the Kerch bridge should also accidently explode again and there is a big increase in partisan activity on the peninsula, Ukraine could make life very difficult for the occupiers from a stand off position long before they would need to send troops in. How willing those poorly led and unmotivated Russian troops will be to defend their occupation when the Ukrainian offensive eventually does come is open to debate.
Just a thought - all the noise by Russia about evacuating civilians the last few weeks. If they really are going to withdraw, I’ll wager loads of their officers and best soldiers left dressed as civilians under the cover of an evacuation.
This made me shudder. Many hours learning to clear these bastards way back when. Absolute lick out, Arty & UCAV is a far better option!
Mud has definitely allegedly arrived
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1590437738687647745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1590437738687647745%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=
Just a thought – all the noise by Russia about evacuating civilians the last few weeks. If they really are going to withdraw, I’ll wager loads of their officers and best soldiers left dressed as civilians under the cover of an evacuation
The civilians were 'withdrawing' with Russian soldiers and armour, so that Ukraine wouldn't target them on bridges and barges (according to ISW)
This made me shudder. Many hours learning to clear these bastards way back when. Absolute lick out, Arty & UCAV is a far better option!
If the satellite images are all over twitter
Then the locations are in Ukrainian himars/drone GPS's
Very damning editorial in one of the Moscow papers this morning, around 1.19 in on this Steve Rosenberg report.
https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1590600147808841731?t=AhiE9uJwtOR5kkyxKI0fDA&s=19
This makes a very important point.
The Russian strongman is a rational actor who is willing to retreat under pressure if it is to his advantage to do so.
That should lessen concern that Putin will launch World War III if he doesn’t get his way in Ukraine. Putin certainly miscalculates (as he did in invading Ukraine), and he is definitely reluctant to concede defeat. But he is not unstable, stupid or suicidal. Thus the retreat from Kherson offers encouraging news not only about the state of the war in Ukraine but also about the state of Putin’s mind.
https://twitter.com/PostOpinions/status/1590447938610040832
Absolute lick out, Arty & UCAV is a far better option!
Can someone translate this please?
Clearing these sorts of things on the ground using troops is a pain, using Artillery spotted by Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles is much easier.
Can someone translate this please?
Apologies @molgrips, cheers @nickc
They're hard work if well defended; you have to fight each leg to corners, each apex is a vulnerable point (VP) or killing zone. Lots of grenades, ammunition and endurance required. As other have said, clearing them with ranged weapons is much better and safer for UKR troops.
Thanks 🙂 this is going to make it hard for Ukr which I guess is the point. But one would assume they're going to become muddy ditches and filled wiath conscripts which could make them less effective...
With the bridge to Crimea out of use or of limited use, won't supplying any troops be an issue?
With the bridge to Crimea out of use or of limited use, won’t supplying any troops be an issue?
It will make things more difficult, but for the time being they still have road access via Mariupol, as well as ferry access across the Kerch strait and airlifts to Crimean airfields. Russian military logistics are primarily based around rail movement though, so the bridge damage is a major headache. There are also lots of reports that they are very short of trucks for road moves. To the point where they have been commandeering a random mix of civilian trucks and vans. I'm really hoping the Ukrainians bide their time until the bridge is just about repaired, then whack it again!
Thanks 🙂 this is going to make it hard for Ukr which I guess is the point. But one would assume they’re going to become muddy ditches and filled wiath conscripts which could make them less effective…
Depends if they're reinforcing them. That can mitage the issues caused by water ingress to a point. There doesn't seem to be any visible signs of overheard cover, so they're going to be pretty miserable places to be for sure.
Why hasn't Russia used its airforce much in all this?
Every time they try they get shot down. It is using long range bombers to launch cruise missiles from well behind its lines.
Why hasn’t Russia used its airforce much in all this?
The UKR have been supplied with rather a lot of air defence systems. From vehicle to man-portable so I think RU are erring on the side of caution. That and they may be hitting logistics issues (although I can't find sources to confirm this) it's just a hunch.
Yes.. They probably don't have that many operational 'high tech' jets.. And Ukraine has loads of AA defence now.. Sending them out they will kinda be sitting ducks... Flying ducks?
And they are super expensive to maintain or replace if they are shot down.. Loosing just one high tech fighter jet /multi role fighter/bomber represents a huge financial loss.
I guess they are being super careful with the good stock they have left.
Otherwise we'd be seeing a lot more Russian jets doing cheeky bomb and bugger off fast runs in Ukraine.
As an ex RAF pilot, the first part of any western military campaign is to gain control of the skies, knocking out enemy radar, missile sites and C2. Without this, losses of jets would be huge.
Russia claimed to hav3 destroyed the UkAF on day 1, but as with most Russian claims, it was all bluster. The west also flooded in Stingers and other MANPADs, so each unit could defend itself from Fast Jet strikes and Helicopters.
With the bridge to Crimea out of use or of limited use
Is it out of use? Certainly one side of the road is knackered for a good amount of time, but was the rail bridge damaged much beyond needing rail repairs? Not heard much since it happened.
Difficult to get an accurate answer but most reporting suggests that whilst the rail link is open, it is operating with fewer trains, lower weight limits and reduced speeds. Russia claims the Bridge will be fully repaired by July 2023.
Well, a wade around twitter would indicate that it is all kicking off in Kherson. UA about to enter (if not already there) and what seems like a ‘surprising’ collapse of the Russian army with soldiers legging it to the river to try and get across any way that they can.
Time will tell, but it’s looking like any hope the Russians had of a staged withdrawal is collapsing fast..
Yeah - calling it organised doesn5 make it so, especially when your enemy surrounds you and is shelling all your narrow exits.
Why hasn’t Russia used its airforce much in all this?
To understand how Russia’s aerial advantage evaporated, Justin Bronk, Nick Reynolds and Jack Watling from the Royal United Services Institute in London interviewed key Ukrainian officials. The result is the definitive study of the Ukraine air war’s first phase.
This new defensive line the Russians are retreating to.
Firstly, I thought that the Ukrainian's had longer range and more accurate weapons. Presumably they spend a winter being logical and intelligent about picking off the 'best' targets at thier leisure?
Secondly, come the right weather, they can go around some of this to the north/west, and move along the coast eastwards?
Thirdly, there's really long supply lines still for Russia, and see my comment about using longer range and accuracy to just keep disrupting? Russia already has cold, hungry and uncomfortable troops, Ukraine can just keep twisting..
Russian can retreat and regroup, but it won’t solve its issues of logistics, poor equipment, lack of leadership, slow communications, centralised orders and demoralised ill disciplined troops.
That Forbes article, along with much other evidence shows how the UAF have changed from a poorly run post soviet army, to a modern, western trained mobile force.
They know the Russian doctrine and how they will fight, plus the range and capabilities of all its weaponry.
They used the summer to cede territory slowly, whilst inflicting heavy losses, and training up a huge mobilised army with western help.
Aside from the USA & China, they are probably the most able land army on the planet right now. Battle hardened and well equipped.
It seems the Ukrainians are concentrating all their artillery fire on the crossing points the the Russians are using over the Dnipro. There are apparently still around 20,000 Russians waiting to cross to the east bank. It seems any hope of an orderly retreat have evaporated. It's going to be absolute carnage reminiscent of the 'road of death' in Kuwait, unless the Russians have the sense to surrender enmasse. Awful to imagine and yet more blood on Putin's hands.
Russia doesn’t value life, never has. Sacrifice for the greater good of “The Motherland” . Sadly, the greater good these days just means keeping power for Putin & making the inner circle rich.
Those defensive lines along the Dnipro will achieve nothing, other than preventing UA from crossing the river. But the UA doesn’t need to anyway.
A quick punch south to Melitopol now would be decisive. Do it whilst the RA is still in chaotic retreat, and Cut off Crimea and the rest of RA in the west.
If we had supplied the heavy weaponry they asked for instead of trying to not provoke Putin that's exactly what would be happening.
Thread on why (according to this guy) broad donestic support for Russias exists
https://twitter.com/azamatistan/status/1590846401675919360?t=6qSbsLzPT9U7CQY8UbQjxw&s=19
I'm seeing pictures now of the Kherson bridge completely cut...
Russian MOD state the withdrawal is complete with no losses and nothing was left behind........
Based on that, thousands are stuck, it was a massacre & they lost al their kit!
It certainly seems Kherson has been abandoned. Whether there is still troops attempting to cross the dam we dont yet know.
Very happy with this:
Looking at how this is being covered in Russia it is nothing short of staggering.
Official media are trying to look the other way and play it down. They call what is happening in Kherson a manoeuvre, a redeployment or a regrouping and they have presented it in rather positive terms for the Russians.
But, looking at social media where there are a lot more diverse opinions - and particularly the pro-war commentators - they are shocked. They are aghast.
Some of them say this is Russia's worst defeat since the break-up of the Soviet Union, which will scar our hearts forever.
That's the kind of rhetoric they're using.
Of course, this has a huge impact on President Vladimir Putin's standing and the ability to carry on pursuing what he calls the special military operation.
The latest deepstate map shows both bridgeheads and Kherson city in UAF control. Wow.
Last night I was hearing reports of gruesome pictures of dead bodies in the Dniepr river that were too horrific for twitter.
https://deepstatemap.live/en#9.75/46.7513/32.5767
The latest deepstate map shows both bridgeheads and Kherson city in UAF control. Wow.
Nice to see a big blue patch on that map again! 👍
