I'm sorry to be pessimistic, but I'm worried about the ease of this. I can't help feeling Putin will suddenly drop something nasty on Kherson once its fully re-occupied aka the Trap.
Kryton - it wasn’t easy. UAF have been setting this up for months.
-Cutting off the bridges and supply routes.
-Taking out Ammunition supply depots
-constant shelling of HQ/troop concentrations
-SOF/partisan ops.
They have taken Kherson without having an urban battle. That is a good thing. The city still stands, civilians spared the slaughter and many UAF lives saved. Modern smart warfare instead of the RF meat grinder.
Kryton57
Full Member
I’m sorry to be pessimistic, but I’m worried about the ease of this. I can’t help feeling Putin will suddenly drop something nasty on Kherson once its fully re-occupied aka the Trap.
In this case I think Russian incompetence from the start rather than an elaborate conspiracy now, whats amazing is that its not the complete rout seen in Luhansk
Kryton – it wasn’t easy. UAF have been setting this up for months.
-Cutting off the bridges and supply routes.
-Taking out Ammunition supply depots
-constant shelling of HQ/troop concentrations
-SOF/partisan ops.They have taken Kherson without having an urban battle. That is a good thing. The city still stands, civilians spared the slaughter and many UAF lives saved. Modern smart warfare instead of the RF meat grinder.
^This. Attrition done well.
Russian MOD state the withdrawal is complete with no losses and nothing was left behind……..
Based on that, thousands are stuck, it was a massacre & they lost al their kit!
I have seen tweets saying that thousands of Russians are stuck on the wrong side of the river, so your joke may not be far from the truth.
Next step - the Russians have prepared a fortified line of defence. Surely that means the Ukrainians will go round the side? - t hey won't be complicit in a re-run of WW1.
They have taken Kherson without having an urban battle. That is a good thing. The city still stands, civilians spared the slaughter and many UAF lives saved. Modern smart warfare instead of the RF meat grinder.
And it'll be very satisfactory if this remains the outcome.
What a day 🥳
Not a surprise really but rather predictable. (referring to the news saying terms have been offered to Russia)
It looks like the event in Ukraine will be the trigger point for future conflict once NATO moves in.
Now that Russia knows how poorly equipped or trained they are by comparison to NATO etc, I suspect the seed is now sowed for the mother of all wars in future. It will take Russia a while to regroup/retrain/reequip etc but I am sure they will be back.
Putin might not achieve his objective (not sure if there is a winner or loser) in the current Ukraine/Russia war, but their future leader(s) might be different.
Strategically, Russia is still in WWII with poor commands while their enemies have been preparing since WWII. On the other hand, I also think Russia is either "testing" the water or completely underestimated the involvement (capabilities) of NATO.
One great advantage NATO has is the utilisation of the "eye in the sky" (satellites) that keeps track of all developments and movements of their opponents. This information is highly crucial for ground manoeuvre.
Humiliation for Russia?
referring to the news saying terms have been offered to Russia
Where is this referred to?
@ slowoldman/chap ...
Crikey, you must keep up!
Here you go from STW "favourite" news outlet.
p/s: This is will be costly. The US wants to play in China's backyard
Ah so "Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West' as he loses control of Kherson - and his cronies have reacted positively because it allows them to stay in power and avoid criminal charges".
Well that's all the reason Zelensky needs to say "sod that".
Its actually terms discussed between Ukraine and the west, and not terms offered "by" the west according to that article, but as its the DM its probably the journalistic equivalent of chronic diarrhoea anyway.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1591110988719263745?t=ve3xAEbhzrP-p4dC9-SYeA&s=19
Seeing a lot of this.
Trying to be hopeful they dont find too many horrors from occupation.
There absolutely will be mass graves and torture sites. There has been everywhere occupied by these scumbags.
Russia is rotten to the core and will never change. This army we have seen was supposed to be the modernised version, but corruption is so endemic, the money was pocketed instead at every level.
The only way to change that mindset is to democratise. So it will never happen.
It will take Russia a while to regroup/retrain/reequip etc but I am sure they will be back
None of that will improve their chances if they continue with their current doctrine. That doctrine is the only one available to them because creating a military with empowered command at all levels makes them a concern for those who wish to retain power.
Putin needs them to be confused and reliant on micromanagement so there's no risk of a coup.
The only way to change that mindset is to democratise.
To end corruption ?.
Are you new to the UK or something 😆
None of that will improve their chances if they continue with their current doctrine.
Current strategy nahhh ... If Ukraine fights alone Russia would win hands down. But the moment NATO got involved with the eye in the sky, Russia knew they were already fighting a losing battle.
That doctrine is the only one available to them because creating a military with empowered command at all levels makes them a concern for those who wish to retain power.
They have been complacent and never improved since WWII. Technology wise they are somewhat behind in terms of the practical implementation. They will have to go back to the drawing board.
Putin needs them to be confused and reliant on micromanagement so there’s no risk of a coup.
Nothing to do with Putin. They are just poorly trained and relying on WWII strategy and their so called generals are all paper tigers (most).
A humiliation will do them good and the more humiliated they are the better it is for them to understand they are no longer capable.
If this is the start of the mother of all wars, the seed has already being sowed, all parties will be fighting blind. Encroach an inch of Russian soil will spark the fire.
There will be a period of "peace" before the whole thing kicks off again. For Russia to challenge NATO on equal footing will take a generation at least, say 30 years. But when that happens most will not survive (both sides).
In the meantime, all Russia can do is to disrupt the world energy supply.
NATO/Ukraine 1 - 0 Russia.
The only way to change that mindset is to democratise.
Yes, sow the seed of conflict in their population. In the far east, the term democracy is also a by word for creating internal troubles because that's not their belief or culture.
I’m not saying they should or will democratise, but unless they do, the same problems will stay.
The only way to change that mindset is to democratise. So it will never happen.
You need to watch TraumaZone to see how well democracy worked in Russia.
I’m not saying they should or will democratise, but unless they do, the same problems will stay.
They can't because that's how they are. They might have some elements of "democracy" but that's just superficial. They have to be comfortable in who they are rather than trying to be influenced.
Yes, their system does not encourage thinking out of the box, but their machine like thinking has their own advantage so long as they know how to manage it. For the moment, they are all very poorly managed.
As for China, I am still unsure because on the one hand they can be machine like but on the other hand they are very good at taking short cuts.
At this rate, there's a real chance Ukraine could retake Crimea
The Russian army is a joke,
For Russia to challenge NATO on equal footing will take a generation at least, say 30 years.
Never going to happen, this was the last gasp of the Russian imperial dream, Russian military is severely weakened, many of the countries in the Russian sphere depend on them to keep their own populace in line.
Those mobilised Russian troops that have tried to escape the slaughter and are now being held in pits by their own side sum up the disaster
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1590696393001168897?t=0jDURBhbfaJEn1V-Kienqw&s=19
The Russian army is a joke,
Yes, it is but it is also a wake up call for them.
Never going to happen, ...
Unless Russia is assimilated into NATO, it is difficult to predict.
... this was the last gasp of the Russian imperial dream, ...
LOL! What is USA doing to the world now? Dollar as world currency reserve and dictating "democracy" to others? This is the new form of imperialism (old story tbh) in the name of "moral" high ground. They are the most powerful in the world right now and is allowed to dictate terms.
All the mighty empires fell after a period of time but for now it is the America's imperial ambitions. As one US famous investor once said, he was born at a time where life is good because America rules the world. The new world is taking over the old world but for how long?
this was the last gasp of the Russian imperial dream, …
LOL! What is USA doing to the world now? Dollar as world currency reserve and dictating “democracy” to others?
chewk, I have no idea of whether this was a lost in translation issue but your comment has nothing to do with kimbers assertion that I can see.
chewk, I have no idea of whether this was a lost in translation issue but your comment has nothing to do with kimbers assertion that I can see.
My interpretation is that kimbers is referring to Russian's imperialist ambition, but I am saying that the obvious imperialist is USA. Albeit being disguised as the "good" guy. At any period in history there will always be one that tried to dominate in various forms.
Russian claims to have evacuated all their troops from Kherson region across the river would appear to be lies for domestic consumption.
My interpretation is that kimbers is referring to Russian’s imperialist ambition, but I am saying that the obvious imperialist is USA. Albeit being disguised as the “good” guy. At any period in history there will always be one that tried to dominate in various forms
I don't think that there's an "obvious" imperialist, I think that many, possibly all, nations have an imperialist streak because that makes life simple for them.
The almost-universal use of the US dollar in trading is a benefit of being the world's largest economy and means that the US can borrow dollars easily and cheaply. Other countries accept that as a necessary evil and also trade in dollars, which strengthens the US position.
Russia also has imperialist aims and has been developing a System for Transfer of Financial Messages based on their rouble, but with 400 users compared to SWIFT's 11,000 it's no contest.
China has also been developing their Cross-Border Interbank Payment System since 2015 based on their yuan as a third alternative with 1200 users.
SWIFT, by contrast, is globally rather than US-governed and less imperialist in the sense of not being run by any one country.
Clearly the US is dominant with the dollar, but only because an accident of timing led to them being well-positioned economically at the end of WW2.
Russia has been pursuing their imperialist financial aims since 2014 when their earlier invasion of Crimea led to the US refusing to trade with them. 70 years of development versus 7 years, of course the US is dominant
What Russia doesn't seem to get is that colonialism, which is a step up from imperialism, doesn't increase its influence in the modern world. It would do far better if it just used its massive natural resources in a sensible way. It doesn't have to democratise, it doesn't have to invade, their leaders can pay themselves whatever they want and their people should see an increased standard of living
Russian claims to have evacuated all their troops from Kherson region across the river would appear to be lies for domestic consumption.
From what I've seen on Twitter, I suspect they evacuated the most valuable equipment and troops first and left the newly mobilized "meat" behind to do rearguard duties. Or, they might just be utterly incompetent and lying about how it's going.
That was pretty much the claim I saw too, evacuated the "professional" army and left the Mobilised to sort themselves out, or not.
Yeah “We have evacuated all the troops ………….that we care about”
Rumours of intact and abandoned S300 systems too
This war, like all wars, has been a human tragedy from beginning to end (whenever that may be).
Dropping the bridges and leaving thousands of surrendering PoWs will slow the Ukrainian advance down.
The whole mining the dam, occupy Kherson city, evacuate civilians alongside our troops, etc has been a cynical tactic with disregard for life to gain time
For Russia to challenge NATO on equal footing will take a generation at least, say 30 years.
Never is much more likely. To challenge NATO they need an economy as big as the NATO countries to support the same defence spending. The Russian economy was slightly larger than Italy's before the war I wonder how much it has shrunk since then. Only challenge to the US and NATO is China. Why? Becuase it is the world's second biggest economy.
What Russia might be able to do is take what defence spending they can muster and re-shape their military with the main aim of invading Ukraine but that's a bit difficult when they have to guard enormous borders, run a navy and maintain thousands of nukes none of which the Ukraine needs to do.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/world/europe/ukraine-war-strategy-russia.html?smid=tw-share
Ukraine Signals It Will Stay on the Offensive, Despite Talk of a Lull
Not sure how realistic that will be (link in the image)
nytimes.com/2022/11/12/world/europe/ukraine-war-strategy-russia.html?smid=tw-share
To challenge NATO they need an economy as big as the NATO countries to support the same defence spending
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or Russia to challenge NATO on equal footing will take a generation at least, say 30 years.
Never is much more likely.
As Yogi Bear said, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future!” I can't see Russia recovering for a couple of decades, just because that's how long it would take to build factories and train a professional army. It will all depend on leadership though. Russia has deep (and mostly unjustified) grievances against the world, but the USSR did leave them a legacy of well-trained engineers and a large nuclear arsenal. If an effective leader took over and channeled that grievance into actually rebuilding Russia instead of just stealing from public coffers, it's not impossible that they would have a world-class military in 30 years. Look at where China was 30 years ago or how quickly Germany rebuilt its military in the 1930s and you see what is possible. I agree that it's more likely that Russia will still be weak in 30 years time, but it would be very foolish to make any long-term assumptions.
but the USSR did leave them a legacy of well-trained engineers
Jeez, thats a sign of my ageing, took me a minute to realise 30 years is actually quite a while ago.
If we can wean ourselves off Cheap Russian gas and oil then they won't have an economy capable of building up enough hardware to defend themselves, let alone offensive manoeuvres.
They are digging out relics as it is, after 7 mths of fighting
Be interested to know the dud rates for their ammo ad well. The bigger guns must need a specific burn rate to lob a 5kg plus projectile amy distance with accuracy, old out pf date charges probably go pfft like a damp firework.
Posted just for the academic purpose of admiring how good the Ukrainians are at doing propaganda. Ukrainian propaganda follows:
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1591162458952982528
Haha - that’s great 👍
Posted just for the academic purpose of admiring how good the Ukrainians are at doing propaganda. Ukrainian propaganda follows:
😂 They really are world class at this
That's great. the pressure the general public have been put under in Ukraine must be horrible they do piss taking better than the British and that's saying something.
Superb.
As before, the notion that defeat in Ukraine might be a "wake up call" and that somehow Russia is going to transform itself into a nation state that can counter NATO in terms of equipment, fighting age population, training and logistics is for the birds.
There not just 20 years behind thou (Russia) by the time they get a modern method of management in combat the US TEC advance will make Russian ideas outdated.
I have a feeling the US had a sneaky suspicion that Russia was in a hole due to corruption and bad management in the first place.
It's now or never for Ukraine to take all the land back Crimea included they won't have momentum like they have now again.
I do wonder how close NATO got to being involved officially it could have wrong for the world
If anyone finds themselves looking at the words "Wagner" and "Hammer" dont go looking further. Its supposed to be as awful as it sounds.
Just switch off whatever youre looking at and go outside.
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