Well my builder has just pulled an old daily express out of a cavity - from July 195...(last digit not legible)
Cover story is about the threat of soviet union and how US needs to doing something to stop them getting the 'H' bomb..
How completely random but still relevant
Long thread, and no Ive not fact checked everything but I spot verified a few pieces.
Interesting response to the usual dis/misinformation claims about who us to blame.
https://twitter.com/neil_abrams/status/1589725333536002050?t=mFksOU7CaVmnQVBTGGcBzg&s=19
There's some ongoing responses too on Aarons account
Who’s Aaron Mate? 🤷♂️
Hes a reporter from the really quite far left wing The Greyzone. (Not overly harsh to call him a leading Tankie)
Its not that unusual to see them retweeted by Russian government officials.
That’s not “very high” by any means, looks about right for a ship in the water. A dry dock would have the ship sitting much lower (think about it).
As for scaffolding, I can’t really see from the muddy potato image but that looks like it’s round the infrastructure on whatever quayside it’s been shot from. Again, not unusual, docks are frequently construction sites with live areas adjacent.
And now that I've seen the picture on an actual monitor it does indeed look like a dry dock.
So never mind.
Slight distraction
According to your "favourite" news, Daily something, they now are saying China is preparing for war. HHhmmm ... what? That's so yesterday. LOL!
My advice to the West is to strike while the iron is hot if you wish to survive. At the moment their military strength is only 1/3 that of the West combined. If the West wait they will regret this forever because once they got their full strength, which they will in the next decade(s), you will not be messing with them without very heavy losses if not defeat.
This is the first time they are saying preparing for war since Mao. I suspect now they will put full effort in war preparation and if they do so you will notice plenty of development in armory. I am still counting their aircraft carriers ...
p/s: recent attempted assassination of Imran Khan could be perceived as trying to destabilise the ally.
pp/s: If they really move for Taiwan, I seriously doubt Taiwan will have the stomach to fight and probably just give up.
You know the US said they would defend Taiwan with all its power?
You know the US said they would defend Taiwan with all its power?
Yes, that's why China want to test their sincerity.
Unlike Russians who are ill prepared this is entirely different ball game.
Paper dragon as opposed to a paper tiger?
I suspect that if (god forbid) we ever get to see China's military capability used in anger, we might be as surprised by their lack of prowess as we were by Russia's. They have zero combat experience and a rigid hierarchical command structure which doesn't value initiative at a junior level, in the way which benefits western militaries so much. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the corruption and hollowed out logistical support evidenced in the Russian military is also evident. I am not writing them off, they clearly have a huge military but I doubt that they are quite as good as they think they are.
I also seriously doubt that Taiwan would capitulate as easily as you suggest. The sea and internal geography of the island mean it would be a nightmare to attack. We are talking about opposed beach landings which would be utter carnage. The Taiwanese in prepared defence would take a horrific toll on PRC troops attacking them. They have had plenty of time to prepare and western advice on how best to do so. Their indigenous defence industry is high tech and capable and their military is well equipped.
It is likely I think that due to the sheer weight of numbers, China would prevail eventually, but at a horrific cost in lives that would make Ukraine look like a schoolyard tussle. There would also likely be a partisan war conducted from the forests and mountains of the interior which would last for decades. I think China knows most of this and isn't in any hurry to try, despite it's bluff and bluster.
Paper dragon as opposed to a paper tiger?
Test them to see if they are real. I suspect 50 - 50.
I also seriously doubt that Taiwan would capitulate as easily as you suggest.
They don't have to do much really other than treating Taiwan as their "Cuba". i.e. no supply in or escape out.
Slight distraction
Let's get back on track, and my apologies for getting drawn into a derailment. There's a thread on Taiwan somewhere for these musings.
Cheers bloke, and that one even had it as a header.
Back on track.
Winter war should be harsh for both sides.
Higher probably of succumbing to the elements if the situation is similar to WWII.
Looks like the Russian's are finally getting into 21st century warfare and having quite a bit of success with the Lancet loitering drones.
Winter war should be harsh for both sides.
Higher probably of succumbing to the elements if the situation is similar to WWII.
True, but Ukraine is fighting on home turf with internal logistical supply lines, lots of winter kit being provided and their kit was already streets ahead of the Russians, especially the conscripts. They are also getting global support. The UK for example is sending each of the thousands of Ukrainian troops trained in UK, home with a pile of winter kit. Other nations are doing likewise. Meanwhile Billy no mates Russia is relying on bingo cards and cake sales by Babushkas to crowdfund some wooly socks for their lads....
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1590011352998821889?s=20&t=0LL4zVp54adzki8QGsDGXg
They got a lot of kit recently from Canada too
including 400,000 pieces of gear such as winter parkas, pants, boots and gloves sourced from Canadian companies as well as an additional 100,000 pieces from the CAF inventory
On drones, there a video here on some Iranian drones that claims quite a bit of US manufactured parts involved
https://twitter.com/daf_2021/status/1590053566399807488?t=JABNsM3A1ACThK_lTcgdzA&s=09
Meanwhile Billy no mates Russia is relying on bingo cards and cake sales by Babushkas to crowdfund some wooly socks for their lads….
Until one side is defeated and terms being negotiated nothing is very clear.
Until one side is defeated and terms being negotiated nothing is very clear.
Even then we won't know the half of it, I suspect it will be decades before we get a clearer picture of some of the battlefield tactics, subterfuge and black ops carried out by both sides. This is a war that will be studied on higher command staff courses at military academies around the world for years to come.
This is a war that will be studied on higher command staff courses at military academies around the world for years to come.
Probably more towards the tactics rather than strategy.
Uncle Ho (Chi Minh) is particularly good at this sort of things I suppose.
Seem to be lots of these stories of
Mobilised Russians left with no supplies or ammo being relentlessly picked off by Ukrainian drones/artillery , survivors deserting and the being abandoned /imprisoned by RU trooos
https://twitter.com/****ig_idiot/status/1589951919270731778?t=-dSXPugrHqTtR5d0GBzXzw&s=19
Long & jawdropping thread here
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1590040871583764482?t=oEi4YCbr4WtGDp98d7_zNw&s=19
Also sounds like a large Russian column has been destroyed in kherson
https://twitter.com/rendeiro_silva/status/1590077755680763904?t=xXEp1IXdfPfPX6iAS6-2DQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/ChrisKimberley/status/1590107356733394944?t=cezx7LEqLQb2gZYrWaFVig&s=19
The outcome of the US mid-terms is looking unlikely to resolve the existing near 50:50 split in both houses. Russia is hoping for Republican wins, but the votes aren't all counted yet. War and spending in Ukraine isn't seen as a major influence on voter choice
LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - "Pro-Kremlin forces in Russia are hoping that the Republicans win control of Congress, an outcome they believe could mean Democratic President Joe Biden faces a tougher and longer slog to get military aid packages for Ukraine approved."
Connected with this is an update on Ukraine's conditions for negotiation. The guarantees of modern weapons are needed to keep Russia on its side of the border without lobbing more missiles over
KYIV, Nov 8 (Reuters) - "The secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council said on Tuesday the main condition for the resumption of negotiations with Russia would be the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity.
The powerful official, Oleksiy Danilov, said Ukraine also needed the "guarantee" of modern air defences, aircraft, tanks and long-range missiles."
Just to note that Lend Lease was voted in with a House 417-10 vote.
The WW2 equivalent was House 260-165
Without wanting to derail the thread there are connected goings-on in Serbia and Georgia
Both countries have seen an influx of businesses and people from Russia, leading to economic growth and property price increases, but for different reasons:
Georgia is on the EU's radar, but as an interested party rather than a candidate. It's influx of Russian money, business and people is down to it welcoming 112,000 Russians wanting to avoid mobilisation. The result is a country currently on track for 10% economic growth while the rest of Europe is staring down the barrel of recession
Georgia is bordered by Russia, has imposed financial sanctions on Russia and isn't a member of NATO
Serbia is an EU-candidate and as such is expected to toe the sanctions line, but it hasn't. The people see President Putin as a good leader and a good ally.
The independence declaration by Kosovo from Serbia in 2008 isn't recognised by Serbia and there is constant friction between the two, currently over vehicle registration plates of all things, and Serbian concern for Kosovo's minority Serbian population (sounds familiar?).
Kosovo is also an EU-candidate in the same cohort as Serbia
LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) – “Pro-Kremlin forces in Russia are hoping that the Republicans win control of Congress, an outcome they believe could mean Democratic President Joe Biden faces a tougher and longer slog to get military aid packages for Ukraine approved.”
At the moment, it looks like Democrats have a good shot at retaining the Senate and Republicans will only get a narrow House majority. So far, votes opposing funding for Ukraine have been purely symbolic because Democrats had majorities in the House and Senate. Once Republicans control the House, votes are not longer purely symbolic and opposing aid to Ukraine will go against public opinion. It will only take a few Republicans to support spending bills to get them passed so I doubt that Ukraine will just be cut off completely.
Stories about conscripts being killed seem to be everywhere. These are just normal blokes with families who've been told they have to go and get shot at / blown up and seem to be being used as human shields to provide a buffer before the professional army. Horrible horrible stuff.
One of the bridges blown up by the Russians in Kherson today......
That should stop the UAF advancing. (photo 3)
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1590291859934351360/photo/3
Blowing up bridges is something armies do when retreating, it commits them to the retreat. Ukraine could decide not to try to take the city now, and just let the Russians suffer through the winter. The bridges being down makes it harder for the Russians to go on the offensive.
Yeah - just seen the Shoigu announcement. That is huge! If they get out though its another 25000 russian troops to fight elsewhere.
On the bridges, the one in question was over a dry ditch!! It smacked of an order from on high to =blow all the bridges, with nobody on the ground pointing out its uselessness.
its a trap
With UAF drones/SF and NATO air recce assets in the area, Ukraine will know exactly what is/isnt happening.
SHOIGU : For us the lives of our servicemen is a priority
I think the mobilisation and flagrant maltreatment of the mobilised is going down like a lead balloon. They are also desperate to appear in control of events.
On the bridges, the one in question was over a dry ditch!!
Dry ditch currently. Doesnt mean it doesnt become a decent obstacle in the middle of winter. So if you have the explosives might as well do it.
They'll be over it tomorrow!! The point of blowing these bridges was to slow down the UAF enough for an orderly withdrawal. To me it just shows how doctrinal and centrally controlled RF army is.
It’s a trap
It's a trap that they've been trying to spring for a couple of weeks now! Starting to feel a bit laboured, tbh
Not sure why the Russians would announce doing this. Surely you would want to keep this as quiet as possible to facilitate a withdrawal.
Not sure why the Russians would announce doing this. Surely you would want to keep this as quiet as possible to facilitate a withdrawal.
It would be completely impossible to hide the withdrawal of that many troops and their equipment. It's a huge logistical undertaking. It will be marshalled by military police units, there will be queues of vehicles at form up points and holding areas, road blocks and check points etc. The Ukrainians have access to drone and satellite imagery, int from NATO air assets and humint from the many Ukrainian nationals on the ground. The Russian communication security has been piss poor too, so the Ukrainians will be intercepting military radio traffic, which incredibly doesn't seem to be encrypted as well as mobile phone calls from ordinary Russian soldiers. The Ukrainians will know exactly what is happening and will be following it in real time.
HIMARS time, surely? 🚀
HIMARS time, surely?
Probably, then the hypocritical bastards will be claiming Ukrainian war crimes and using it for internal propoganda.
And it'll be a lot of conscripts and reluctant soldiers that take the beating rather than the leaders. Very sad.
Blimey. You'd not want that bloke digging footings for you eh?
I'm hoping this is the beginning of the last phase I can only hope.
If Ukraine gets it's land back they will have to arm the border with anything they can get and have a huge army/air force apparently they don't need a Navy
All roads lead to Crimea. I don't think Ukraine will stop until it's liberated. I'm not suggesting it will be easy or quick, but the the resolve, ingenuity, resilience and courage of the Ukrainian forces never ceases to surprise. I reckon by this time next year, there will be a blue and yellow flag flying over Crimea.
