Source: bloke down the pub
And isn't that just the point. There are lots of good, factual, reasons why nuclear weapons wouldn't be deployed by anyone, but just in case, ballistic missile defence is a permanent NATO mission with integrated detection systems at sea, in the air and ground-based in Turkey, Romania, and Germany, augmented by other assets that will also provide detection and defence
What the bloke down the pub doesn't know is the response that President Biden whispered in President Putin's ear, but it's kept the nuclear option off the table since 1945
this is just a game of brinkmanship, at the highest level.
I seem to remember that's what a lot of people were saying while troops were building up at the Ukraine border at the start 🙁
seem to remember that’s what a lot of people were saying while troops were building up at the Ukraine border at the start
Yup
Id like to thank the contributors to this thread. It makes it easier to see what is happening as you are wading through the news and making summaries so i dont have to
Ta
If you’re interested in post communist Russian and its former Soviet states, and can read, then this is worth five of anyone’s pounds:
Imperium
This is the quote that resonated for me:
“You in Britain are Moscow in about 1988. Everyone knows the system isn’t working. Everyone knows that the managers are completely looting it. They know that you know that they know, but no one has any concept of a possible alternative. The only difference is you’ve already tried democracy. You’ve got nothing else left.”
Yeh I did see that. It’s easy to have a misplaced sense of permanence when something goes beyond your lifetime, the PRC for example only settled in 1949 and the Warlord Era is still, just about in living memory for a tiny handful of people.
Rare report from a western journalist from near the frontlines
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1576088268524773376?s=20&t=69-kx_nu9XCwEYowpR-VZA
Alleges 70% of firepower comes from the HIMARS(or similar?) systems.
First reports of RF fleeing Lyman. Mixed messages at the moment. It feels that Lyman is a Gateway Op, the real target being what happens when the line breaks.
I read that 70% number to be modern western systems as opposed to Ex Soviet systems, but it wasn’t clear. If you add up Himars/M270, Caesar, PzH2000, M777, then it makes more sense.
The real issue with the ex soviet weapons - as well as shorter range - was lack of ammunition. Whilst they have liberated big stocks recently, it isn’t always what they need. Before that, their stocks were very low & hard to replace, whereas NATO can flood them with rounds to fit western kit.
Alleges 70% of firepower comes from the HIMARS(or similar?) systems
The "or similar" is key. HIMARS is as near as you'll get to a brand name, which is a wheeled platform for a missile pod. The M270 MLRS is a tracked platform for the same pod and control system, as is the German MARS II and French LRU (and others).
In June UKR forces had a dozen M270 donated by a joint Norwegian and UK venture, in July three MARS II from Germany (and more promised) in addition to the HIMARS from the US. I can't find a report that suggests that France has sent LRUs
HIMARS is lighter, newer and more expensive, MLRS/MARS fires 2 x 6-packs and both platforms can fire the MGM-140 ATACMS
I read that 70% number to be modern western systems...snip
Journalists aren't always as clear as you'd like, the 70% doesn't make sense if we're just talking about platforms for the M269 Loader Launcher Module
Journalists aren’t always as clear as you’d like,
Someone posted this a while back and it's still making me chuckle
And the RU were more than happy to lob dumb shells into a town to force everyone out, or kill them.
The UA probably abit more discriminate. Dont want to level grandpa retirement flat if necessary plus want infrastructure like road and bridges to stay intact.
Yes, a clear differential.
RF just bombard/flatten a town, then roll in afterwards to claim the rubble
ZSU surround and cutoff supplies.
Looks like Lyman has fallen - things could happen quickly again here like the Kharkiv Axis.
I wonder how much kit the the Russians will leave behind this time? Or are the forces completely encircled? I doubt UA wants that many POWs approaching winter.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1576170107549540352?t=pPbWzwX70F3-anYfZpDFtQ&s=19
So close!!
There’s a lot of talk of a bloodbath on the road out as they fled - shades of the “Road to Basra”
Some Spetznatz units wiped out in Stavry too.
I seem to remember that’s what a lot of people were saying while troops were building up at the Ukraine border at the start 🙁
I have to say I feel quite concerned. Its been discussed loads already but it's difficult to see any way out for Putin other than to keep escalating. Nobody knows his state of health, mental or physical. His ego won't accept defeat, and neither will he want to put himself in the personal danger that may bring. He's also looking to cement his legacy in history. Clearly, the use of nukes of any kind would be madness, but we've descended into a degree of madness already and things could escalate very quickly if unwise decisions are made.
Bit of a tangent, but when discussing the age old question of intelligent life in the Universe, many hold the opinion that it must be out there because the size of the Universe makes it a mathematical improbability for it not to be. Then you have the other side which says it can't be, because we'd have seen evidence of it. Our technological advancements increase at an exponential rate, so it stands to reason that some civilisations would be advanced far beyond our imagination, leaving at least some evidence of their existance. I sometimes wonder if the missing piece of the puzzle is that every civilisation destroys itself once it has the power to do so.
Anyway...
Fro Rybar Telegram channel:
❗️🇬🇧🇺🇦 The situation in the Limansky direction as of 15.00 October 1, 2022 By the middle of the day it became obvious: a decision had been made to withdraw troops and leave Liman. After the appearance of a video from the eastern outskirts of Zarechny with a blown up bridge (49.021573, 37.952583), which was occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it became clear that the entire “road of life” was already under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russian artillery continues to work on suitable units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but if earlier attention was focused on the Liman, now the goal of the Ukrainian formations is to block Kremennaya and take control of the reservoirs on the Zherebets River. Most likely, the active phase of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Kupyansk and Redkodub to Svatovo, through which the supply routes of the RF Armed Forces pass, will soon resume. The loss of Liman is, first of all, a serious damage to the reputation of the Russian Federation. Because since yesterday, this is already the territory of Russia (even though the treaties have not yet been ratified - this is not so important), and not just the liberated territories of Ukraine or the Donetsk People's Republic. In circles around the military, they are discussing that after ratification on October 5, full-scale hostilities will begin: a wide range of weapons and military equipment will be lifted into the air, hell will be created in Western Ukraine, and then we will live. You know, if this is all there and they didn’t use it within the framework of the SVO, then why did someone decide that on the 5th, something would change? High resolution map Russian Version #digest #Donetsk #Liman #map #Russia #Slavyansk #Ukraine #Kharkov @rybar *Support us: 4377 7278 0407 7977 | 0x4739352b67Da6F4064757627D92A08EaDd3fb6b6 (ETH) | 33i1BwMuzeYTAUNtiLa6CjvaHtTVYNJfnp (BTC)
At some point this needs to be addressed
https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1576183321406611457?t=ragJ7-Z70XkTKTPsTvkqpA&s=19
Before we get too worried about nukes remember last Monday's anniversary that showed you need men willing to press the button.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
Completely unverified account allegedly from troops in the Lyman area.
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/
No idea if it’s true, the URL is fairly descriptive of the content, no images, difficult reading.
Question regarding gas storage.
I see occasional criticism of the U.K. for not holding strategic sized gas reserves, this is not something I know much about. What would those reserves do, that the North Sea can’t?
They'd hold a readily available supply of gas that is processed for immediate release into the supply chain.
Completely unverified account allegedly from troops in the Lyman area
If verified then a fascinating insight there
Gas in storage would be in high porosity reservoirs and of known distribution. Producing gas from a field is always a bit of an unknown I terms of what volumes and rates you will achieve. Also will generally tie up expensive kit during production
Gas in UK storage, ready for uk use.
Gas in the North Sea - for sale to the market, as we don’t own it!
Completely unverified account allegedly from troops in the Lyman area.
No idea if it’s true, the URL is fairly descriptive of the content, no images, difficult reading.
Grim. Those engaged in the slaughter and those that escape it will be traumatised by it forever. All for an old man's ego,
I wish I hadn't read that blog ^^ Enough to make a man weep for those killing and those dying. The mental health storm coming to Ukraine and its fighting men can only be imagined.
It does seem there is something awful happening around Lyman. We need to remember the blame for all this is Putin.
Nuclear - I wonder if instead of a bomb Putin will continue to try ridiculous things - blowing up dams, using the nuclear power station, poisoning water, hacks, damage to cables undersea. Basically state terrorism, for which Russia has much recent history of.
I do think the USA/NATO have been utterly clear that a nuclear attack (in conventional sense) of any kind would be met by obliteration of any Russian military asset that is in Ukraine, and some beyond, within hours. I think Putin knows it's a gamble he couldn't win.
I suspect there have been awful things happening around Lyman for a few months. Evidence of which will become apparent in the coming days.
Can the Ukrainians use the chaos of thousands of Russians in retreat to push on towards Severodonetsk? They have to pause at some point.
It seems from following Twitter that a rout occurred overnight. Hope it's true.
I feel sorry for the individual Russian soldier but the Ukrainians need to get them out.
It sounds like they have a lot more night vision gear the Russians. Getting hunted in the dark by an enemy with night vision must be one of the most terrifying things a human could experience.
Getting hunted in the dark by an enemy with night vision must be one of the most terrifying things a human could experience
I agree I can't imagine how horrific that might be!
I sometimes wonder if the missing piece of the puzzle is that every civilisation destroys itself once it has the power to do so
Either that or, in the context of the thread, every civilisation hides its presence once it has realised what the nearby 'civilisations' will do when they find it. I've read SF on that theme but it would be a spoiler to give the title.
Which book?
Its a common theme.
Even Star Trek touched on it- Earth was known about by other species but until it had access to warp speed travel it was ignored for being “backward”
Oh dear, another careless smoking warning.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576227894053208065
Oh dear, another careless smoking warning.
Very satisfying!
Smoking kills
Star trek touched on a lot of things as did the Orville.. " anything other than a productive life to help the betterment of mankind is deemed a waste of your life "
If only the worlds more powerful would realise this.. power greed wealth while 10s of thousands suffer daily.
Ive kept up with this tread daily as if offers more insite than just the normal media outlets, but I wish I hadn`t read that blog.
