Tech and process fest is here:
https://www.wermac.org/nordstream/nordstream_part3.html
Stage info on the r-h side.
Personally, I could believe the US did it to kill any last bargaining option that Russia may have had with it.
Nah. It was Greenpeace.
Earlier reports saying a 15% turnout in he referendum in one area, but that might have been before voting closed. In which case about 14% of the population agree to annexation.
I wonder how many of the voters are visiting Russian squaddies.
Think of all the other pipelines running under sea …. gas….. telecoms and data connections to the USA
Putin wants us to know he can damage them whenever he feels like it
Not sure I buy this (although granted there's not really any alternative logical explanation I've seen either). NATO intelligence know full well the capabilities Russia has to damage/cut undersea pipelines and cables. A demonstration isn't needed and even if it were, doing it on pipelines you might want operational in future is akin to someone punching themselves in the face on a night out to prove how hard they can hit someone as a warning.
Given the mess Russia has made of many 'covert' ops over the last decade even Putin would have thought there's a 50% chance of Russian saboteurs either being detected or blowing themselves up which would have had the opposite effect (if his motivation was intimidation).
Destabilising the energy market even further is maybe more plausible but even with that I'd have thought the market would have factored in no Russian gas for at least 12 months anyway so any blip in reaction to it would be very short term.
I could believe the US did it
Its easy to pin it on Russia and get it to stick….
If it wasn't Russia, they'd be apoplectic. Screaming from the rooftops that it was an act of war to damage their export infrastructure, a direct terrorist attack on their economy and a massive provocation/escalation. They'd be demanding UN resolutions, threatening retaliatory strikes on western energy infrastructure and properly losing their shit. I've seen none of that (specifically in relation to the pipeline attack), a few muted and unconvincing denials, probably accompanied by a 'prove it' smirk.
https://visitukraine.today/blog/928/how-not-to-join-the-russian-army-or-surrender-step-by-step-instructions-for-the-occupiers
Handy link for conscripts
We probably will never know beyond speculation
It was Russia. There's absolutely no doubt about that. The pipelines were both closed and there is no chance of them reopening in the foreseeable future so they have no economic value to Russia. This is Russia sending a message that they will escalate and blow up energy infrastructure. However, they did it outside of NATO borders because they don't know how NATO will actually respond if they attack a target within NATO borders. If it wasn't Russia, they would be kicking up a huge fuss, but by not acknowledging it was them, they can throw wild accusations around that it was Ukraine/Poland/USA/etc. as a distraction from their warcriming in Ukraine.
If it wasn’t Russia, they’d be apoplectic.
The US has too much to lose in regional support for it to be worth the risk.
In my uneducated opinion.
This how a conspiracy theory begins: What happened can never ever be the bleedin’ obvious.
The US has too much to lose in regional support for it to be worth the risk.
In case it wasn't crystal clear from my post you quoted, I am absolutely convinced it was Russia and believe it to be highly unlikely the US or anyone else was involved. Just saying the very half hearted Russian denials underline that further.
It's simple really, it caused a gas price spike that will hurt EU economies and benefit Russia selling to other nations. Little chance of it getting switched back on anyway, so why not.
In case it wasn’t crystal clear from my post you quoted
Not only was it Crystal Clear, it was holding a placard and megaphone announcing it 🙃
If it wasn’t Russia, they would be kicking up a huge fuss,
Yep, I agree, they would be playing the "poor me" card, I grant you.
On the tele program Warship the RN sent a destroyer toward Iceland.
There were reports of a Russian sub trying to find the data cables between the uk amd usa.
It ended with the sub hitting the towed sonar array, probably trying tp hide in the prop noise and getting it wrong
This bust the sonar so the destroyer had to rtb
I know people (myself included) have been predicting the fall of Lyman for a while now but that's because the Russian situation there has looked untenable for quite some time, that has not changed, what's drawn this out is that Putin (in his new role as grand commander) has been throwing resources into Lyman to shore it up and insisting that troops there do not fall back.
As a result it has meant that Ukrainians have had to fight particularly hard around Lyman but now they seem to be on the cusp of winning quite a bit of Russia's best remaining kit and units are now caught in an encirclement and could well be about to be captured en masse.
Whether the slog to get to this point means that the Ukr forces will then need pause to recover and resupply or whether they will use the chaos of the fall of Lyman to force another Kharkiv-style rout remains to be seen, although I think we'd all love to see the latter.
Encircle Lyman and Press on towards Svatove, would be my game plan. Lyman can be taken slowly. The RA should pull out of Lyman, but will they?
When one dictator tries to cheer up his fellow dictator…utterly surreal.
Accidental Partridge?
Whether the slog to get to this point means that the Ukr forces will then need pause to recover and resupply or whether they will use the chaos of the fall of Lyman to force another Kharkiv-style rout remains to be seen, although I think we’d all love to see the latter.
My understanding is that operational pauses tend to happen after a lot of ground has just been gained, to allow supply lines and defences to be put in place. Lyman has been taken inch by inch, so they might not need a pause? We'll see I guess
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/opinions/how-close-putin-nuclear-war-de-bretton-gordon/index.html
Ex NATO commander of specialised nuke / chemical unit is hypothesizing that Russia might target a nuclear power plant or chemical factories in Ukraine.
It would allow them to make an improvised nuke / chemical strike with plausible disability that it was intentional.
Sounds entirely possible to me.
The troops taking the ground around Lyman have been fighting hard for weeks now, they will need to stop just to rest if Ukraine wants to preserve their effectiveness.
The question is whether Ukraine has a strategic reserve behind them ready to capitalise on the fall of Lyman and force another Kharkiv-style breakthrough. (Remember those Hummers with .50 M2's on them we saw tearing through the Russian rear a few weeks back, that kind of unit)
Analysis of their troop movements and how much equipment has been seen on the front line vs what we know they've received suggests they do, but that could be wishful thinking.
Also seen this posted on a few news sites, Chinese and Russian ships in formation together, what are they up to?
Any important pipes or cables close by?
A friend sent me a screenshot from an article on seapowermagazine.org regarding US Navy exercises (BALTOPS) just off the Danish coast involving mine hunters and 'mock explosives' in June 22.
Is decidedly coincidental timing at best if you are conspiratorially inclined... Makes you think etc etc
It's a measure of how confusing our times have become when we can't even work out which side blew up the pipeline
Is decidedly coincidental timing at best if you are conspiratorially inclined… Makes you think etc etc
I'll get this out of the way; no, I don't think that you're conspiratorially inclined... 🙂
That was the 51st BALTOPS and seems to be a June fixture. What makes you think is that they haven't worked it out how to win yet 🙂
The Russian Navy shadowed the exercise, as normal I imagine
I suspect that everyone with shooty-things knows who didn't/couldn't have done it, and by implication who did
US Embassy in Russia asking all US citizens to leave Russia immediately whilst commercial options are still available.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/politics/us-embassy-russia-warns-americans-leave/index.html
Talks about dual nationals in particular, presumably prone to mobilization.
I’ve no military training.
However I’m fairly confident the instructor shouldn’t stand there or grab that…
Bad practice for sure but I like to think that was just drilling rather than live fire.
US Embassy in Russia asking all US citizens to leave Russia immediately whilst commercial options are still available.
Or maybe Russia is getting ready to close it's borders? I've been wondering why they haven't already
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1575177015082496000?s=20
I’ll try and find a source for that, seems as much a political message as military aid.
Edit
The U.S. will provide an additional $1.1 billion in aid to Ukraine, with funding for about 18 more advanced rocket systems and other weapons to counter drones that Russia has been using against Ukrainian troops, according to U.S. officials.
Since the funding is for contracts for weapons and equipment, it is aimed at helping Ukraine secure its longer-term defense needs. It could take a year or two for Ukraine to get the systems. The U.S. has used Pentagon drawdown authority to provide weapons more immediately, and another announcement for that Defense Department aid is expected early next week.
I think they’re referring to NASAMS - anti missile systems, but I could be wrong 🤷♂️
US DoD website https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3173378/11-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
If you click on "Releases" at the top of that list you'll get other news
Definitely 18 HIMARS then 👍
I've been trying not to get too excited about Lyman until there are confirmed reports, but it is looking good for Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/brucewaynesaunt/status/1575128928771084291
Reading the Security Assistance list and the Washington Post article (both linked above) it's apparent that the backs of the many White House sofas are coming up empty and this kit will need to be built first.
I'd imagine that the brand-new stuff will stay in the US with used kit swapped-in to Ukraine, simply because a) used kit works and b) it's a lot simpler to sort warranty problems in Kansas than in Kherson
I suspect that Russia will continue to make substantial contributions to the Ukrainian arsenal in the interim
has anyone seen articles about how ukraine is dealing with all the pows? it must be a logistics nightmare.
lots of focus on captured kit, I've not seen much on captured soldiers.
lots of focus on captured kit, I’ve not seen much on captured soldiers.
No, and I've been looking for it for a while. No indication of numbers nor whether there are red cross visits. There was a report yesterday saying they were going to try and arrange for 15 min phone calls with their families every few days but that's it. On Twitter there was a french 'ex military ' person claiming mistreatment of Russian POWs bit he seems to have been discredited for various reasons. I would at least have expected something from the Red Cross but Ukraine seem to be super in control of information
And to be clear, I don't expect there to be widespread mistreatment. It's just that no information is a bit surprising
Ukraine need to set up a text hotline for Russian soldiers.
Simply text 'defect' to 7890 and we will ensure safe passage to a safe haven.
Calls cost 10rubles plus your standard network charge.
Terms and conditions apply.
They have essentially done that AFAIK.
It’s just that no information is a bit surprising
The Geneva Conventions say that PoWs “must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity.”
In March UKR hadn't got to grips with this and was using videos of POWs as propaganda. The use of social media contravenes the rules in the obvious way, but also because in Russia being captured could be seen negatively. It was a minor violation rather than a war crime and served no useful humanitarian purpose because it doesn't show PoW conditions generally
It's clear that both the UN and Red Cross consider Russia to be worthy of investigation rather than Ukraine
I’m sure Ukraine are doing their best to follow all the conventions, but there has been so little info released, not even things like numbers captured, or how on earth they are dealing with the processing side of (presumably) capturing so many who they then have a duty of care to treat appropriately
My father was heavily involved in setting up PoW camps in Iraqi hence the interest
What if some random carelessly discarded a cigarette close to the Russian pipelines which supply their Eastearn neighbours?
An “Alternative” viewpoint of how it’s going……….
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/holding-ground-losing-war/
An “Alternative” viewpoint of how it’s going……….
Google suggests that author is a Tucker Carlson regular…
And the linked website states
Douglas Macgregor, Col. (ret.) is a senior fellow with The American Conservative, the former advisor to the Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, a decorated combat veteran, and the author of five books.
Uh huh
I’m sure he knows his stuff, but with those men by him I’m not sure he’s being straight up.
