What entirely was the point in blowing it up? If it’s not in use
I’m confused.
Because it will now not be able to be used. It's a "fsck you" _if_ it was deliberate Russian sabotage.
I would have thought they could achieve more by cutting underwater cables and denying it. I’m sure I read an article about the Russians having that sort of capability
In light of recent discoveries it's hard to know whether it's deliberate by the Russians or just shoddy engineering or lack of upkeep.
Russia have AUVs capable of it
http://www.hisutton.com/Large_AUVs_Poster.html
Meanwhile
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1574459133163884544?t=iQfUo4Q3ys3cUJFHSJZkLg&s=19
What entirely was the point in blowing it up? If it’s not in use
I’m confused.
Yep it doesn't make sense. If Russia are responsible, it looks to me like they have taken one of their own pieces off the board for no gain. I would say that there is more to the story
I’ve just watched a video of a drafted young Russian in his barracks have his leg broken by his mate jumping on it, to avoid being sent to fight.
On a human level this mobilisation is just tragic.
What entirely was the point in blowing it up?
A false flag that they will blame on NATO? A practice for blowing up the new Norwegian pipeline (and others?)
But they have lost one of their bargaining points, even if EU push for a ceasefire, they won't get the gas restored.
In light of recent discoveries it’s hard to know whether it’s deliberate by the Russians or just shoddy engineering or lack of upkeep.
Is it not managed by a German company and was installed by international group of companies?
It's odd if they have done something, but perhaps it's just hard man, I'm in control, desperation? So far Pootin has proved a master strategist...
I’ve just watched a video of a drafted young Russian in his barracks have his leg broken by his mate jumping on it, to avoid being sent to fight.
That is seriously grim.
Today the Ukrainians around have reported thier first POW's from the mobilized conscripts, captured near Lyman.
Fog of War and all that but it looks like the Russian authorities scooped them up and shoved them straight into the front line, with predictable results.
Article on the telegraph about why would putin blow up his own pipelines. I’m none the wiser. Plenty of comments suggesting it was nato/us/uk
He blows up the currently unused pipeline to prove he has the capacity to do the same to the Sweden/Poland one that came on stream today and reduces central Europe's dependency on Russia. I obviously wasn't explicit enough about that this morning.
Holes and damage can be repaired. If it floods with seawater, that could be a much significant issue, depending on exactly what material it's made from.
In a previous incarnation I studied seismic focal mechanisms with the Swedish defence research organisation. For me it was a good jolly to spend a year in Sweden. Turns out there was a point after all!!
seismic focal mechanisms
Guinness or Curry?
The article in DT78 suggests a plausible reason, create a sense of risk/scarcity in the market and push prices up. (Although I didn’t see any comments, was that on Twotter or FB and possibly mostly Bots?)
But gas prices have been dropping for the past four days. After the news of the suspected sabotage to the pipes, they rose by 12 per cent.
[url= https://i.postimg.cc/gjmMG5Vr/nguk-com.jp g" target="_blank">https://i.postimg.cc/gjmMG5Vr/nguk-com.jp g"/> [/img][/url]
Particularly after forecasts like this https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/13/gas-prices-eu-fall-sharply-goldman-sachs-eu-russia
Goldman said on Tuesday it expected European wholesale natural gas prices to fall from about €215 (£186) a megawatt hour to below €100 a MWh by the end of the first quarter of next year, assuming typical winter weather conditions. That is well below the €213 previously predicted.
Looks like Lyman is going to be in Ukrainian hands soon, at no small cost to Ukraine
Wagner prisoners and newly drafted soldier captured/ surrendering will be a headache for Ukraine to feed & detain
The article in DT78 suggests a plausible reason, create a sense of risk/scarcity in the market and push prices up.
In addition to the above; in 2021 Russia was blamed for a cyber-attack on the US Colonial Pipeline and earlier this year on the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp regional oil hub.
Russia can't effectively demonstrate a cyber-attack on unused pipelines and their capability might not work on brand-new infrastructure and control systems.
In a further hint of desperation they launch attacks in Danish waters on their own pipelines which upsets market predictions of NS re-opening in 2023, upsets the opening of the Baltic Pipe Project in October and increases the economic shock in Europe. This lays the ground for pro-Russia leaders in Italy to start demanding a ceasefire and deals
tthew
Full Member
He blows up the currently unused pipeline to prove he has the capacity to do the same to the Sweden/Poland one that came on stream today and reduces central Europe’s dependency on Russia.
That has to be the only plausible explanation I think.
It's very Putin, isn't it?
Remind me who is winning again?
What is it "winning" looks like to you?
Genuine question.
To me this doesn't look like a scenario where anybody really wins, more who loses the least. And even then...
If the pipeline is deep enough it will be a pancake now it might have compressed and be completely squishy down there.
NATO aren't that daft to do this they have the upper hand both with firepower and morales.
I can see Putin taking out the fiber cables though
Given that Putin doesn't give a sh1t about his people, I'd say they are losing the least. They have the gas, they have huge reserves of money and we have an economy on brink along with most others in the west. His war on the west is doing pretty much what he wants it to be doing.
When one dictator tries to cheer up his fellow dictator...utterly surreal.
Are you saying Russia has more cash than the EU / west?
I hate to break it to you.
Putin might be the worlds richest man off the books but that makes no difference if you rule over an empire of dirt.
The "Inside Russia" YouTuber has, well, left Russia.
For anyone that watched any of his stuff
I've no military training.
However I'm fairly confident the instructor shouldn't stand there or grab that...
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1574795540767850499?t=iiZ6XFm0P7ag444tL_Zj9Q&s=19
Got to love a bit of quo
Question is what happens next after Putin has upended his country by mobilising
And he still keeps losing
https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1574729924392325120?t=HKwtjMhO0ap_8juiDcnyzg&s=19
NATO aren’t that daft to do this they have the upper hand both with firepower and morales.
In early February President Biden promised to "end" NS2 (specifically) as a threat to prevent the invasion by Russia. After that promise NS2 wasn't certificated and hasn't pumped gas and it simply serves no purpose for the US or its allies to damage the pipelines.
The damage in Danish waters is significant and tells Europe that Russia can damage the Baltic Pipe Project. Those Russian subs that were parked in Russian waters after leaving Crimea will now be targetted if they re-enter Ukrainian waters
The minions need to step up and remove him after his birthday party where no one drinks the tea or eats the cake
Timba
I think Putin did it in all honesty
popping NS2 wasn't about popping NS2 which wasn't connected anyway
It was about showing off the capability to damage undersea infrastructure under our noses
Think of all the other pipelines running under sea .... gas..... telecoms and data connections to the USA
Putin wants us to know he can damage them whenever he feels like it
Think of all the other pipelines running under sea …. gas….. telecoms and data connections to the USA
And how disruptive it will be for months to repair things.
☹️
I must admit I really think we need to think beyond events in Ukraine. Putin is self-evidently waging war against the West as a whole. Given the USSR failed primarily because of its economic weakness it isn’t surprising that Putin will be trying the same trick in reverse. You have to hope that Russia’s economy will crack first. I just wish we had a vaguely competent government which wasn’t doing Putin’s job for him.
The UA have crossed the river to the East of Lyman and headed towards Kreminna.
This means Lyman is operationally encircles as the only remaining road in/out for the RF is under UA guns.
With the loss of Lyman (and god knows how many troops and bits of kit, they've been flooding the area) the UA are now poised to drive either NE into Luhansk or directly East to Severodonetsk.
Putin is in real trouble as a well trained, well equipped and well motivated army trounces an ill equipped, poorly (if at all) trained and extremely demotivated army
wzzzz
Free Memberpopping NS2 wasn’t about popping NS2 which wasn’t connected anyway
It was about showing off the capability to damage undersea infrastructure under our noses
Was that in doubt? I mean, it didn't used to be, is it possible that Russia's reputation is now so weak that they have to re-establish things like this?
Was that in doubt? I mean, it didn’t used to be, is it possible that Russia’s reputation is now so weak that they have to re-establish things like this?
They are demonstrating their willingness to do it.
So, "referendum" votes have been counted. Anyone want to take a stab at the results? ☹️
Russia have formally declared a win in the "referendums"...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63052207
99.23% in favour.... Yeah... right.
So, they will become part of Russia in a matter of weeks... Even though parts of the territories are actually in UA hands.
If Putin is going to use nukes, we're going to find out soon. I'm still calling BS on that one though.
99.23% in favour
What was the turnout 170%?
Timba, I think Putin did it in all honesty
I don't doubt you, honest 🙂 My post was meant to back your point up
I must admit I really think we need to think beyond events in Ukraine.
I’m not saying this because I’m some sort of Geopolitical boffin, but I’ve been there for a long time.
When Moscow describes the fall of the Soviet Union as a “genuine tragedy”, they meant for Moscow, not the former members. The Baltic states like Lithuania that Gorbachev sent the tanks into to prevent independence no doubt have a different perspective.
The source of that “genuine tragedy” statement being Putin back in 2005.
I love an internet...
If the pipeline is deep enough it will be a pancake now it might have compressed and be completely squishy down there.
To minimise the risk of pipe collapse during installation, buckle arrestors (pipe reinforcement) are installed at specific intervals in susceptible areas. The buckle arrestors are welded into the pipelines in those areas that are susceptible to propagation buckling, i.e., deeper sea areas.
The buckle arrestors are made of the same steel alloy as the line pipes and are equal in length to the line pipes. However, these pipes has a greater wall thickness, with machined thinner wall ends to match the adjoining line pipe.
Buckle arrestors are used along a 305 km stretch of the pipeline, and the spacing between them is 927m (equal to 76 line pipes).
Once its full of sea water its not collapsing, Shirley...
Personally, I could believe the US did it to kill any last bargaining option that Russia may have had with it. German winter gas reserves are high and I think the next day another line to Poland was opened. Ads - B have aircraft flying laps of Konigsberg so any movement would be spotted there. Biden is on record saying they have the means to do this, back in February. Its easy to pin it on Russia and get it to stick.... but this is just my way of joining the dots here and all sides closing the conversation about NS1 and 2.
We probably will never know beyond speculation and I'm thankful there are people managing the responses who are closer to the event and privy to info we don't have...
Once its full of sea water its not collapsing, Shirley…
Hard to see the pipe would have been laid fully pressurised as well? Definitely a question, not a statement.
