Pro Ukrainian sources are claiming thats staged, but could eaily be wanting to hide partisans getting caught.
Sounds about right
There's heavy fighting to the NW of Kherson city. Partisan action within the city will embolden citizens, lower Russian morale and, potentially, damage rail logistics. More Russian defence of the city lowers frontline availability
You only see one bit of what's going on, but I'd expect a bigger Russian reaction
This account belongs to a France 24/Duetsche Welle correspondent
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelleChaze/status/1571150196121415681?s=20&t=7ElYcxBE3pT42--FTe4utQ
😞
And apparently Mariupol, Berdyansk and Melitopol have burial sites way bigger, seen by satellite.
Plus we need to not forget about the Ukrainian POW's and forced relocation families who are currently in Russian hands.
It's starting to look like real evidence of war crimes which are policy, not a 'bad' soldier or two.
Again, Russia making itself even more of an international pariah.
Again, Russia making itself even more of an international pariah
Which isn't great. Intelligence suggests that Russia is buying materiel from N.Korea and Iranian drones have been shot down by UKR
While Russia was more commercially aligned with the west it maintained an arms-length from N.Korea over their development of nuclear weapons and publicly backed the UN resolutions, in turn N. Korea moved away from Russia.
The development of relations with N.Korea and Iran will surely become a worry in the west, especially with Iran's nuclear desires
Russia certainly is on it's way to becoming a pariah state, if it isn't already. The problems are that it's the largest country by land area, with a ridulous amount of natural resources, which will make things a bit awkward when we inevitably have to continue trading with them
I've always thought that in the long run, Russia will gain much more than the west from all of this. Putin knows what Russia has, he's happy to throw his soldiers under the bus when he knows his real might are his countries natural resources. This is all just the beginning of the puppet show. I just hope I'm dead by the time it really does reach these shores.
I’ve always thought that in the long run, Russia will gain much more than the west from all of this
Take a seat. Someone will be along in a minute to accuse you of torturing small furry animals.
I’ve always thought that in the long run, Russia will gain much more than the west from all of this.
Not at all. A modern economy the size of Russia's cannot survive being isolated from the rest of the world. Russia is cut off from Western technology and finance, they are on a trajectory to and up like North Korea. The Baltic is now utterly dominated by NATO and there's a good chance that Ukraine will recapture Crimea and dominate the Black Sea. That will make it extremely difficult for the Russian navy to operate.
Take a seat. Someone will be along in a minute to accuse you of torturing small furry animals
I don't get the reference...
If they do become a pariah state, what does that mean for Europe being on the border. Constant ongoing tensions and threats?
The problems of a weakened, reduced Russia are not confined to relations with Russia, they will go far further. Other states will be eyeing up the oil, gas and other natural resources in Siberia, client states in Asia and Africa will be looking for new patrons. Got to be good news for China, not so sure about anyone else, particularly Europe.
If they do become a pariah state, what does that mean for Europe being on the border. Constant ongoing tensions and threats?
I think they are now a pariah state.
I guess it means a lot of Western expenditure on high tech weaponry and a lot more "boots on the ground".
The development of relations with N.Korea and Iran will surely become a worry in the west,
Compared to Russia's previous stance of being very cosy with both China and India, I'd imagine 'the West' is pretty happy with the way the quality of Russia's alliances has been degraded now both Xi and Modi seem to be more or less hanging Putin out to dry.
Small furry animals, that a band isnt it?
I dont get the reference either, but DrJ is often a bit exasperated by the "Russian about to collapse in some form" commentary, but if it is that i still dont get it.
Small furry animals, that a band isnt it?
I dont get the reference either, but DrJ is often a bit exasperated by the “Russian about to collapse in some form” commentary, but if it is that i still dont get it.
Yeah, sorry, not the best expression. I was just referring to the tendency in some quarters to view someone who isn’t 100% on board with the most optimistic view of the war as some sort of pro-Putin evil monster. 🙂
I’ve always thought that in the long run, Russia will gain much more than the west from all of this.
How do you see this panning out? How long is 'long run'?
IMO Putin is now fatally weakened, Russia's military threat is substantially diminished, Russia's economy is set back by a decade or more, it's well on its way to becoming an international pariah and the CSTO is falling apart.
On the other hand NATO is strengthened, and the US is doing fantastically well out of this war, politically and economically.
In the very long term, Russia is still a country with huge natural resources, and a lot of land that will soon become habitable due to climate change. But I don't see how this war is helping it, other than potentially hastening Putin's downfall.
Compared to Russia’s previous stance of being very cosy with both China and India, I’d imagine ‘the West’ is pretty happy with the way the quality of Russia’s alliances has been degraded now...
I'm not so sure that degrading is accurate, it's becoming aligned away from the west. N.Korea has been subject to 19 UN sanctions for nuclear proliferation, India on the other hand got the UN to recognise International Yoga Day (21st June) 🙂
...both Xi and Modi seem to be more or less hanging Putin out to dry
We'll have to wait and see. Both have benefitted from cheap fuel this year and very few countries were supportive of Russia's invasion for a variety of reasons.
Both Russia and China used their UN veto in June to prevent further UN sanctions on N.Korea and Russia is widely reported to have supported Iran for membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
I think that we'll know more after the CCP vote next month
IMO Putin is now fatally weakened, Russia’s military threat is substantially diminished, Russia’s economy is set back by a decade or more
Russia under Putin set out to climb into the top 5 world economies (from 11th) "An excessive dependency on energy exports and the lack of technological innovation were themes of Vladimir Putin's first state of the nation address in 2000," But other than saying those words he's done nothing about getting there. Before the war hey are still exactly where they were when he started, the economy has been largely stagnant throughout the past two decades, while neighbouring former USSR countries have grown, and still hugely dependant on exports. It has all this land and mineral wealth but it all just leaves the country without any value being added to it.
So having failed to move forwards for 22 years the economy going backwards even a little is a two-decade set back. Although he might have succeeded in his efforts to make oil and gas exports a less dominant factor in their economy. Every clown has a silver lining and all that.
That article (which is from this time last year) all talks of an endemic practice of Corporate Raiding - (which has parallels one of Ghadaffi's tactics of randomly spoiling successful activities - burn down a busy little shop, sack all the staff from a popular library, take a smart student out glass and execute him in from of the school as a way of nurturing an apathetic population. ) which means there is increasing less and less business confidence, not just in a financial sense - 80% of Russian entrepreneurs believe being in business iin Russia is dangerous. Out of greed Putin is making the country poorer and poorer and billions of dollars worth of capital is just leaving the country every year.
Luke Hardings book Mafia State from 2011, although a bit dated now, details the hollowing out of Russia entrepreneurship.
Basically, the minute your business starts to take off the local bigwig will turn up and either demand massive bribes or tell you they're buying it off you for a pittance.
If you say no then you're chucked in jail in trumped up charges, Russian prisons contain a hugely disproportionate number of businesspeople in there on charges of embezzlement or the like.
Whilst this may have been a wizard wheeze initially, now all it means is that any Russian with a talent for business either leaves or at the very least takes their money overseas at the first opportunity.
As a result, resource exports are kinda all they have.
The mafia management style also makes it impossible to develop a viable tech industry. Mafia bosses cannot tolerate underlings having any power (or else they will overthrow the bosses), but tech companies can only innovate if decisions are made by tech specialists.
I should have added a small addendum to my previous post.
One successful manufacturing and export industry Russia does have is its weapons and military hardware sector but... hmmm.... yeah.... that's not looking so hot right now either.
One successful manufacturing and export industry Russia does have is its weapons and military hardware sector but… hmmm…. yeah…. that’s not looking so hot right now either.
https://twitter.com/MIL_STD/status/1571536676216008706
This is a crucial point. Russia can now only get seven countries to support it in the U.N. General Assembly. Half the world may resent American hegemony, but almost nobody sees Russia as a better alternative.
https://twitter.com/jhog667/status/1571290786037370887
There was a great article /tweet series in this thread early on that described the mafia approach to business and how it only fosters ‘simple’ industrial activities like mining.
This is a crucial point. Russia can now only get seven countries to support it in the U.N. General Assembly
It might be significant, but not crucial. The vote was to allow Pres Zelenskyy to address the UN by pre-recorded message and isn't listed as a high-level meeting by the UN.
The UN voted that all addresses must be in person earlier this year, which made the vote necessary. There were 19 abstentions in addition to the 7 votes against
Moldova's kicking off now. Inflation (34%) and fuel price riots; it's been turning towards the EU since the 2020 elections and buys from Gazprom on a variable tariff rate.
Moldova borders Ukraine near the Black Sea coast
In fairness Moldova has been kicking on and off for some time now. Poorest country in Europe (as I understand it) with its very own separatist Russian enclave of Transnistria that borders directly with Ukraine. By some accounts part of the Russian invasion strategy was to take all of the Southern Ukraine coastal area and link up with Transnistria.
Reports of disturbances say approx 5000 people. Not insignificant, but not the Maidan either. Wouldn't be at all surprised to find out the Rus have their fingers all over this.
Meanwhile in other news Ukraine are now claiming the East bank of the Oskil River, which means the Luhansk is now firmly in their sights.
And ISW is now saying that as Vlad's relationships with his army commanders breaks down (oops) he is relying more and more on inexperienced and poorly trained volunteer and Militia units. That'll go well then.
If he's losing (lost) the army though, how long has he got? Anyone fancy a sweepstake..?
Who will lose their job first? Brendan Rodgers or Pootin?
In fairness Moldova has been kicking on and off for some time now...snip...Wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out the Rus have their fingers all over this
Of interest because as recently as May, Russia had plans to invade Moldova, overcome its army of 3250, and split UKR forces. Whether Russia currently has that ability is now the question
If he’s losing (lost) the army though, how long has he got?
I think one of the problems Russia has in Ukraine is that it isn't the army, it's the armies, plural. There are some Russian regular army units, some private contractors, some Ukrainian separatist militias, etc. There isn't a unified theatre command, so the local commanders will be bickering with each other, trying to blame others for the failures. Everyone will be watching and waiting for signs that Putin's powerbase is cracking, trying to figure out who it is safe to ally with and who cannot be trusted.
Whilst this may have been a wizard wheeze initially, now all it means is that any Russian with a talent for business either leaves or at the very least takes their money overseas at the first opportunity.
$47bn of capital has been leaving Russia every year. I imagine its leaving a bit faster just now.
5000 is a fairly big protest in a country if only 2.5 million total.
Russia's whole periphery is in foment now the big bad bear has had its teeth knocked out by Ukraine, hard to see how this won't affect Transnistra in 'some' manner.
Great summary of the current state of the war by Ben Hodges.
that was indeed a good listen, thanks.
That was fairly optimistic, he also put a number on the Ukrainian Armed Forces size at 700,000 in uniform which I’d not seen for a while.
That was fairly optimistic
Agreed, though he did say there was a long way to go with a lot more pain and sacrifice for Ukraine. His previous strategic analysis since the war started have been pretty spot on, though he freely admits he (like everyone else) had hugely overestimated the capability of RF beforehand. He didn't however, as others did, underestimate the Ukrainian forces. As commander of United States Army Europe at around the time the Russians first started interfering in the Donbas in 2014 he'd had a hand in training them and seeing them transform from Soviet Doctrine to a more Western approach of delegating command and empowering junior officers and NCOs etc. He's a clever guy and his views are always worth a listen.
Great video, thanks for posting!
Well, Ukraine have 'officially' taken their first chunk of Luhansk territory. Specifically the village of Belogorovka. Reported as such by both Grauniad and Torygraph, so it must be true. It's consequential because in June Russia secured the whole of Luhansk - to much fanfare - and this wrecks that and is the first step in what will (hopefully) be the liberation of Luhansk.
Strategically important too as it threatens Lyschansk and Severodonestk a couple of miles to the East and Lyman to the west (which the Ukrainians have been threatening to take for the last few days). Given the state of Russian morale, and the fact that they apparently have no reserves to plug holes, I wouldn't be surprised to see some more significant gains fairly soon. A view shared by everybody's favourite ex FSB separatist mass-murderer turned rent a quote Gherkin, who has been on Telegram saying that defeat is inevitable and that a couple more setbacks will mean Putin is defenestrated..
The Russian ships and subs haven't surfaced (see what I did there) in the news much, recently....
As Ben Hodges mentions, if Ukraine can push further they could place the Russian ships in range...
Loss of life aside, if they could sink a sub or more surface ships, it would be another game changer.
News today about Turkey stopping Mir card banking services is significant too.
A view shared by everybody’s favourite ex FSB separatist mass-murderer turned rent a quote Gherkin
Who's that?
Denis Pushilin (Donetsk) wants Leonid Pasechnik (Luhansk) to get his finger out and get simultaneous referenda organised on joining Russia.
I think that they're concerned that they'll be next in the growing list of Russian political appointees who've been car-bombed. If a vote doesn't happen soon then they'll be heading back to Russia on urgent family matters, followed closely by others
In a further development, British Intelligence suggests that part of the Russian submarine fleet has been moved from Crimean waters into Russian waters at Novorossiysk. The threat of various missiles has just moved further away
Talking heads on Rus TV openly calling for Nuclear strikes on Britain (the root of all evil), saying they should have done it yesterday with so many useful targets here. Claiming they don't need to worry about our at sea nuclear deterrent as they would obliterate it in an instant. Absolutely hatstand, Russia really has totally lost all grip on reality. I find it hard to see, even when the war in Ukraine is over, how any country bar North Korea and Iran can have any kind of relationship with them.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1572087951416336385?t=PIZ8evzTch1hjQ_Z-6lb0g&s=19
Igor Strelkov, goes by the handle of Igor Girkin, alleged war crimes happen to involve being charged by the Dutch for MH17.
And a quick unchecked glance at Wiki suggests involvement in the Visegrad massacres way back in 1992.
Literally one of the worst human beings alive today if even half the allegations are true.
Somebody way up thread suggested this war had the stench of the Balkans conflicts to it, in terms or cruelty, and that will be down to the likes of Strelkov.
