Talking heads on Rus TV openly calling for Nuclear strikes
Again? Are they hoping to sink the UK under a tsunami like on one of the previous rants?
Girkin was heavily involved in Russians sneaky non-invasion of Crimea and Easten Ukraine in 2014, making him a bit of a celebrity in patriotic Russian Circles.
Which makes him hard to ignore, but not so hard I suspect that Putin won't consider having him 'accidented'if Girkin keeps on banging on embarrassing him like he has been recently.
He does however show that for all Putin's viciousness, there is an even more vicious wing of Russian machine advomore0
Again? Are they hoping to sink the UK under a tsunami like on one of the previous rants?
No, they are going to turn us into 'a Martian desert' this time. Nice to have a bit of variety when it comes to Armageddon options I find.....
I find it hard to see, even when the war in Ukraine is over, how any country bar North Korea and Iran can have any kind of relationship with them.
Despite what one of our residents thinks, no one is marching on Moscow* so the only solution to Russias problem will come from within.
There's a few scenarios, I cant see any good ones that are likely.
*Which is to a degree evidenced by the stripping of defences from (soon to be) NATO borders elsewhere.
Well, Ukraine have ‘officially’ taken their first chunk of Luhansk territory
Also picked up by the South China Morning Post and Times of India
Theyre using the same story (pretty much word for word)
Despite what one of our residents thinks, no one is marching on Moscow* so the only solution to Russias problem will come from within.
There is no credible opposition or heir apparent though. It would likely be more of the same. Even the lauded Navalny who has carefully cultivated his image in the West, is a Russian nationalist who would probably revert to type if it was him. I see a break up of the RF into lots of impoverished republics as being more likely than someone swapping places with Putin and keeping it together. Lots of little republics with grievances, many of them with nukes on their territory. Like you say, no good options.
Diplomatic language for:
"We know where your submarines are, all the time"
"Sevastopol base is now threatened"
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572085839370539010?t=jQLW2HlqVrrQ4Qe363qCZA&s=19
Our local lad Fynn, who has been raising money since the start of the war has added 3 ambulances to the fleet.
Two of the Ambulances were paid for by Oxford Products, so just saying thanks to @oxfordproducts
These ambulances will be stationed in the east of Ukraine and will save lives. Our team from the village drive them down tomorrow, sadly I can’t join them this time.
Safe journey chaps.
Nice one jkomo. Any more shopping planned since the tourniquets?
Big if true?
Also on BBC.
"Asked whether Russia should be allowed to keep Crimea - which it annexed in 2014 - Mr Erdogan said that since then, Turkey had been talking to Mr Putin about returning the peninsula "to its rightful owners" but that no progress had been made".
Though it's interesting to contrast that with the intention to hold referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1572223210313187328?t=3Ea8wWC1mjv7lOyC-WwMtA&s=19
Normally very pro Ukrainian channel
Big announcement seeming to be incoming too:
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1572222923846344708?s=20&t=xiY2cShy4DzyZo1ZFuAZDA
It's got to be announcing the mobilisation of the Russian arnmy, right? It's the only option he has left!
Russian has stopped advancing, and is in fact going backwards with Ukraine gaining more territory each day. They simply don't have the manpower, and no way to get any more without mobilsing their army. Scary times!
I only hope that we are able to proportionately escalate our support in return
It's hard to imagine it getting worse, but it feels like it's about too. How many more troops can he send to Ukraine?
Haven’t the Donetsk administration fled to Russia 🤦🏻♂️🤷♂️?? Not exactly inspiring confidence in the future!
Ukraine will reclaim the Donbas anyway.
stcolin
Free MemberIt’s hard to imagine it getting worse, but it feels like it’s about too. How many more troops can he send to Ukraine?
Basically none. Not because they don't have them, but because the infrastructure's already completely fallen apart under the strain of the forces that are already there. Sending more troops will just break it further- more food and water needed, more field hospitals, more everything. What they probably need, is fewer better supplied better equipped better led better trained better motivated people, and a shitload of trucks full of stuff. Not a problem they can fix with more poor bloody infantry that don't want to be there
Our local lad Fynn, who has been raising money since the start of the war has added 3 ambulances to the fleet.
Two of the Ambulances were paid for by Oxford Products, so just saying thanks to @oxfordproducts
These ambulances will be stationed in the east of Ukraine and will save lives. Our team from the village drive them down tomorrow, sadly I can’t join them this time.
Thank you, thanks to Flynn and all at Oxford Products.
Big announcement seeming to be incoming too:
Probably not unconnected with this: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/20/united-nations-ukraine-russia-war-climate-crisis-famine-global-south
Basically none. Not because they don’t have them, but because the infrastructure’s already completely fallen apart under the strain of the forces that are already there
Wild uneducated guess
Declaration of war to allow use of conscripts to replace losses and allow rotation.
Possibly some limited form of military draft. Akin to the US lottery system for Vietnam.
Veering Off Topic, does anyone have a handle on how Germany financed its war effort in WW2?
on how Germany financed its war effort in WW2?
It was an absolute scam, was always going to fall apart.
This book, while pretty heavy going at times, explains the whole thing.
A good talk by the author here
Wild uneducated guess
Declaration of war to allow use of conscripts to replace losses and allow rotation.
That's practically the only option left for Putin unless he offers a climbdown.
Veering Off Topic, does anyone have a handle on how Germany financed its war effort in WW2?
Not nearly enough as I should. Thanks for the link @gobuchul.
Putin is addressing the nation tonight.
Full on mobilization and fixed referendums?
Or walking away with a international gun to his head??
Honestly I think it's bigger military action, India and china have just put enough distance between themselves and Russia to not take any political flack from international/NATO party's
Putin is running out of options fast, they are talking about putting a 50% tax increases on the remaining oil and gas customers that still use Russia energy.
If they are going for Russian mobilisation, then....
1) this will take a few weeks? So into the bad autumn/winter weather.
2) they don't have the basics of uniform and coats, let along guns or vehicles.
3) is this not just more (poorly trained and unmotivated) mouths to feed and supply in a war zone?
4) going to lead to a 'shooting fish in a barrel' situation for the Ukrainians?
Possibly, though probably not full mobilisation. I suspect it will be him acknowledging the plea from the Republics that are being assailed by the Ukrainian Nazis. That as such it is Russia's duty to do the right thing and accept them unconditionally immediately the (positive) result is announced. He'll do this anyway, but he's just trying to look good and play it still (domestically) as Russia protecting other Russians.
See, the next play he has is that the Donbas is now Russian territory and any attack on Russian territory allows him to escalate to Nuclear. It's a big sabre and he's going to rattle it for all its worth, because he knows that even full mobilisation won't save him, and will in fact almost certainly be the end of him.
My concerned-ometer has just risen a little bit (which of course is what he wants..)
Declaration of war to allow use of conscripts to replace losses and allow rotation.
Indeed, though it's still a gamble for Putin - it's one thing to be sending country boys as cannon fodder another to be sending conscripted sons of Moscow, which could cause opinion to turn against him. Putins whole raison d'etre is how he's perceived in Russia, lets hope this would be fatally damaging.
It was an absolute scam, was always going to fall apart.This book, while pretty heavy going at times, explains the whole thing.
Cheers for the link, admittedly I was hoping for a 2/3 paragraph summary but thank anyway 🙃
I'm not sure it will get worse, the military Russians in Ukraine seem to be very much on the back foot.
Economic sanctions on Russia are probably starting to bite now.
Lots of internal Russian politics starting to vocally challenge putin.
It was always going to be a war of atrittion, despite the bloodshed in Ukraine from Russian invaders.
Start of negotiations, Putin knows he's losing and wants to hold on to what he's captured, with threats of nuclear & mobilisation if Ukraine continues its counteroffensive
He knows by now that Russia doesn't have the equipment or the ability to fully mobilise
Bit of a side note but
https://twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1572150745730002944?t=jlPg9V5B6B73uPnrgHQGWA&s=19
He knows by now that Russia doesn’t have the equipment or the ability to fully mobilise
He only knows what his generals and FSB tell him, which is garbage. He is 100% going to mobilise, Shibu already hinted at it. Although it's going to be termed as a 'partial' mobilisation, just so he doesn't look completely incompetent
It would be interesting to see how much support he has inside Moscow.
With no real opposition to remove him internally and the fact that I don't think he will stop until the mob are at the door pulling him limb from limb. He has made it clear that no one is safe from falling off speedboats or out of windows I'm not sure where he "stops" apart from removed from the bunker.
Forced mobilisation of every male aged say, 25 to 45. If you have served in the army for 5 years then Pootin could basically call up all trained ex army vets.
Must be thousands of them spread around Russia. Still doesn't get around the fact there's no hardware. So probably transport, weapons, uniform /bds, rations., cold weather kit, ammo.etc
Would be back to ww2, backs to the wall desperation measures of running at the enemy with a shovel.
Except they would all be knackered, shoeless, tired, cold, hungry old men by the time they actually got anywhere near the frontlines. If they ever got close. As the ukr seem to be adopting dozens of Russian vehicles daily they will soon have the biggest army in Europe
The other question is who replaces him if he goes. It's not always obvious that there is someone better 🙁
The other question is who replaces him if he goes. It’s not always obvious that there is someone better
It is worrying, but his replacement will inherit a presumably knackered army with no logistical backup, and a crap ton of global economic sanctions, and serious mistrust.
It's not a job I'd want.
Though it’s interesting to contrast that with the intention to hold referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk
The problem with this is that Russia doesn't hold all of these Russian-defined "Republics", so they can't really hold a referendum on something that isn't theirs and that they don't control. Not that this will stop them trying as an act of desperation...
What if they do win the vote? It won't be recognised internationally because there are too many holes in the process. They've already demonstrated that they can't hold these areas and they certainly won't be able to force UKR out again.
The only logical point of these referenda will be an attempt to protect the Russian-appointed political leaders in those areas from the partisans and their IEDs.
Mobilisation won't solve anything, as we've discussed a few times, and the only option is an escalation into WMD and that's the real concern. I won't speculate as to Russia's intentions with WMD, but that's a whole new level of pariah
Are Russian WMD's even operational though?
I think we should assume they are, but it wouldn't supprise me if they misfire in thier own silos.
BBC suggested the referendums were to claim the territory to be "part" of Russia so any attacks there could be used to justify tactical nukes.
Not a cheery thought on the drive home
Not a cheery thought on the drive home
Yep, things aren't getting any better 🙁 (edit: globally that is. Ukraine are proving extremely good at taking ownership of their own fate)
