I can imagine that UKR saboteurs would have endless fun devising traps to tip Russians into icy rivers if they tried that!!
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1564926919681925121?s=20&t=1ZjH9sSGrlTpA2baPZw6Hw
Jeez, the faces on this lot. Look more like victims than anything else at this point in time.
Cant vouch for the source
Poor wee buggers, into the meat grinder, the Ukranians will absolutely mince them, all for the sake of Mad Vlad's ego.
My view remains that a Russian battlefield collapse is the most likely outcome remains and picture like this are a major part of it. Conscripts who don't want to be there aren't going to hold the line.
The fact Ukraine seems sufficiently confident to go on the attack suggests they're not going to sit around to wait for it to happen sometime years from now either.
Wrong place ,wrong time. Poor sods.
Awful.
They're 18 and just out of school. It's like my 3 stood there.
The point of that Euromaidan post is that Russia is now conscripting youths from Moscow and St. Petersburg, whereas before they were just sending farmer's kids from the provinces. Russian elites don't care about sending rural kids to war, but sending kids from wealthier, educated families is a political problem. Note that (officially) conscripts can't be sent to Ukraine, they can only serve within Russia. Sending them to Crimea is legal and used to be considered safe, but now Russians are realizing that nowhere in Crimea is safe. Families from the rich cities won't be happy about their kids being sent anywhere within Ukrainian HIMARS range.
This has a clear historical precedent as well, The Soviets really tried to avoid sending conscripts from Moscow and St Petersburg to Afghanistan in the 80's for that exact reason, knowing the sons of the educated middle class coming back in body bags would undermine public support, in the end they had no choice and that's exactly what happened.
Putin will 100% be aware of this context, so if they are indeed conscripting from these areas it really does suggest that Russia's manpower shortage is even more desperate than we realised.
It took the Afghani's most of a decade to put Russia in this position, the Ukrainians have done it in 6 months.
Hence my feeling that this was will be resolved, one way or the other, fairly quickly, the level of intensity is just so high and both sides need fast results, Zelensky to keep the Western alliance together and Putin before the Russian economy implodes.
Hence my feeling that this was will be resolved, one way or the other, fairly quickly, the level of intensity is just so high and both sides need fast results, Zelensky to keep the Western alliance together and Putin before the Russian economy implodes.
Seems rational that you could flip that around too, Putin needs a quick win to hold Russia together, whilst Europe want's a quick win before energy prices collapse our economies. I'm sure some civil servant is doing the maths and working out how many billions in military kit is needed to make winning the war the least worst option.
Putin will 100% be aware of this context, so if they are indeed conscripting from these areas it really does suggest that Russia’s manpower shortage is even more desperate than we realised.
I'm a bit ignorant here. Russia has 900,000 in their army, 79-80,000 have been killed, so that lesves 90% of their army, no? Why is that not enough?
Awful. They’re 18 and just out of school. It’s like my 3 stood there.
I'm reminded of a line from a Grace Paley story -
"Wars that men plan for their sons"
Grim
🙁
I’m a bit ignorant here. Russia has 900,000 in their army, 79-80,000 have been killed, so that leaves 90% of their army, no? Why is that not enough?
Nope, it's a totally fair question, every Army has what's called a 'teeth to tail' ratio which is basically how many support personnel are needed to supply one frontline fighter, it's usually assumed to be roughly 1 to 4 but can vary.
Army units are generally considered to cease being combat effective once they reach 30% casualties.
So, speaking in wildly non-specific terms
900,000 = 180,000 front line fighters and 720,00 support personnel.
Estimates for Russia KIA so far seem to range from 1,500 to 40,000, usually in war for every KIA there are 3/4 injured but poor med evac and the high number of vehicle crews being hit by Javelins and NLAWS suggests the Russian KIA ratio in this war is higher than normal.
Obviously this is 'back of an envelope' maths and we won't know the real numbers until years from now.
So, Even working to the lower end of estimates Russia is already very close to the 60,000 casualties that would mean the front line troops are getting dangerously low on manpower.
What's more, these casualties seem to have been suffered disproportionately by Russia's more elite units such as the VDV airbourne, several companies of which have 'ceased to exist' based on intercepted phone calls home by Russia solders.
Whilst Russia will never admit it, the fact they're sending fresh Conscripts, Naval infantry and other non-frontline personnel straight into the fiercest combat Europe has seen since WW2 suggests increasing desperation. Stories are emerging of Russians enlisting in the air force and before the ink's even dry on their contract being given a gun and being taken straight to Ukraine and put on the frontline.
They're also throwing support staff in, which is making their already creaking logistics and supply situation even worse.
I'm not pretending the Ukrainians don't have problems as well but it all points to a Russian military, that, if they can keep whacking away at it, will eventually crack, even if it is 900,000 strong.
I’m a bit ignorant here. Russia has 900,000 in their army, 79-80,000 have been killed, so that leaves 90% of their army, no? Why is that not enough?
Most soldiers in any army are in supporting roles and not in 'teeth arms'. It depends on the army, but only from 1 in 4 to 1 in 10 troops are front line combat troops, the remainder are drivers, logistics specialists, medics, cooks, mechanics etc. Most of those killed/wounded will be from teeth arms and only a small proportion of that 900,000 even if accurate, will be suitable replacements. Add to that Russia has commitments in Chechnya and other regions, border security, training commitments, leave etc and they are probably stretched pretty thin.
Edit: Beaten to it and by someone who answered more eloquently and comprehensively. I'll shut up now!😊
Why would you put fresh untrained conscripts on the front line instead of behind the wheel of a truck?
Intersting! In that case, Russia is not doing well at all.
Europe want’s a quick win before energy prices collapse our economies.
I'm afraid that the gas taps won't simply be turned back on and prices return to normal at the conclusion of this, no matter who wins and who is leading Russia when that happens.
As above, cheap and dirty Russian gas is not coming back anytime soon. If ever.
You’re more likely to see (more) arrests of people involved in energy procurement having some shady relationships with Russian energy suppliers.
Why would you put fresh untrained conscripts on the front line instead of behind the wheel of a truck?
Does Putin and the generals look like they have any care?
Below then it is everyone for themselves - particularly in the Russian military - and they will happily offer up these young lads instead of themselves.
The looks on those kids faces, it's just heartbreaking...
Russia has 900,000 in their army
I’ve nothing worth adding to what’s said above, only to add that’s also across their armed forces, not just the army.
The looks on those kids faces, it’s just heartbreaking…
It really bought back some memories of myself at that age. When frankly, the biggest worry I had was how to have sex with the girlfriend without her parents hearing.
That, and did I have enough change for another Grolsch.
The idea of being that young and daft and then being thrown into hell for an old man’s pathetic desire for conquest is hard to comprehend.
Why would you put fresh untrained conscripts on the front line instead of behind the wheel of a truck?
Because they're not in a position to say no, because that's where extra bodies are desperately needed to bog down the Ukrainian advances and because Putin thinks that for now he can tough out any backlash back home.
The brutal logic of a war going wrong for an authoritartian state with almost total control of the domestic media.
Grim, poor lads, whilst I'm fully pro-Ukrainian I do have to feel for them, they didn't make this mess.
Thier best bet is to go AWOL or immediatley surrender once deployed.... **** that for a game of soldiers.
Jeez, the faces on this lot. Look more like victims than anything else at this point in time.
Cant vouch for the source
****s sake they're just children
**** sake they’re just children
Yup, but at least one of them will probably by raping any remaining Ukrainian girls and women in a couple of weeks. Sorry, but they won't remain innocent for very long...
Yup, but at least one of them will probably by raping any remaining Ukrainian girls and women in a couple of weeks. Sorry, but they won’t remain innocent for very long…
Wow....
They are just 6th form age kids, Thier biggest worry will be not getting blown to bits by Ukraine, and if surrendering, hoping they don't just get murdered and chucked in a river.
Looking at the expressions on thier faces I'm pretty sure Ukrainian girls are pretty far from thier minds.
Sadly, Mark has a point... poorly trained, badly lead and terrified young conscripts have been responsible for some truly henious war crimes.
Add in Russian propaganda that paints the Ukrainians as virtual subhumans and...
And probably likely to have no supplies from their Russian support so will probably have to loot stuff just to survive.
Why would you put fresh untrained conscripts on the front line instead of behind the wheel of a truck?
Those particular conscripts won't be going to the front line. Legally, Russian conscripts can't be posted outside Russia, but Crimea is considered Russian territory so they could be posted there, but that will no longer be considered a safe posting. Of course, the legal requirement has been ignored and rural conscripts have been coerced into going to Ukraine (forced to sign a contract by beatings, etc.) but a lot of the cannon fodder seems to compose of press-ganged residents of the separatist regions of Ukraine (i.e. Russian speaking Ukrainians).
Those particular conscripts won’t be going to the front line.
Unless the situation on the ground improves dramatically for Russia very soon, I wouldn't be taking that bet.
Whilst I agree that the DPR and LPR 'volunteers' have been the first be shovelled into the firing line, there have already been many instances of the rules regarding the deployment of conscripts being ignored (just google "Russian consripts Ukraine").
As stated above, Crimea is considered a legit posting for conscripts and from there the current 'hot zone' in Kherson is not far at all.
Again, the intensity is the key, it's pushing Russia into places they never wanted to be far faster than they expected to be there.
This is obviously just moving the cost around, but worth noting in this thread anyway
The European Commission said it was working “flat out” on an emergency package, and on a longer-term “structural reform of the electricity market” to combat soaring prices while efforts to fill gas storage facilities appear to be ahead of schedule.The day-ahead UK wholesale gas price tumbled by more than 20% to 447p per therm on Tuesday, while the month-ahead contract dropped by a quarter, to 473p per therm
Those particular conscripts won’t be going to the front line.
Except they are new/don't know the area/got lost/can't read a map/was kidnapped and murdered, whatever other reason arrives back home with the bodybag. Who is going to check where the corpse came from and how it got itself there?
Even better, if Russia personnel die 'in a Warzone' their families get a reasonably hefty payment from the government, if they are reported as having officially died in the 'non-Warzone' of Crimea they don't.
Can't see that leading to any shady goings on at all.
I think this is real news, not satire
It's real enough alright. He can be added to the list of martyrs who've dared to criticise Putin and his war. The Telegraph lists them in article linked to below. In some cases it includes their children.
Let's face it. The beyond-plausible-deniability killing of Litvinenko back in 2006 was Vlad very clearly stating to any opposition that he could, and would, get you regardless if he wanted to. Wherever you are.
Since the invasion he has been happily bumping off anyone who dares ro criticise. And doing it in a flagrantly obvious way. At some point one of the next ones will be found hanging under the Bolshoy Kamenny Bridge.
It's no wonder that all his inner circle look so petrified when in his presence. They genuinely don't know if it'll be them next..
At first I dismissed the reporting the mysterious deaths as assassinations as propoganda (the first casualty of war is the truth etc) but this story confirms it for me. Russia is a full on dictatorship with all the nastiness that that entails, up to and including extrajudicial murdering
Falling out of a window is the calling card of Putin.
They have been going on for a while some in different countrys.
Gasprom just gave the Kremlin a huge amount of $$$ so I guess they are safe from windows for a while.
You would be buying a bungalow before you where critical of Putin these days.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-berlin-embassy-spy-window-b1952402.html
It's common if you look on Google literally page after page
Doctors during covid ect
Was thinking the other day, has any one individual since hitler single-handedly caused so much grief for so many by their actions. Sure he hasn’t killed as many, but I’m hard pressed to think of anyone who has soley been responsible for more utter turmoil in the world than Putin
Obviously there have been other dictators, however their actions didn’t have such global consequences. Stalin obviously wasn’t great either, but I’d argue he was just a continuation of other peoples ideologies, so I think some of the blame can be shared elsewhere (even though he ramped things up a notch or two).
Likewise the mayhem caused by the US during the Cold War can’t be attributed to one individual alone, before anyone calls out their foreign policy over the past 70 odd years
On a numbers basis, maybe President Xi. Or possibly Dubya or his dad. Or Bin Laden (if you believe that)
At first I dismissed the reporting the mysterious deaths as assassinations as propoganda (the first casualty of war is the truth etc) but this story confirms it for me. Russia is a full on dictatorship with all the nastiness that that entails, up to and including extrajudicial murdering
Putin has been at it for years. This podcast on the rise of Putin may shed some light;
Well worth a listen
Actually this podcast may be the one, also well worth a listen!
There are lots above in terms of inflicted deaths than those mentioned above.
Pol pots death squads
Kim jongs famine
Idi Amin of course who's actions are still being felt in parts of Africa I'm sure.
All led to global destabilizion in some way.
Putin is ranked in the top 5 of top trump t**ts I'm sure.
I think Mao probably holds that title
Putin has been at it for years. This podcast on the rise of Putin may shed some light;
Buzzfeed news had a good set of stories which later became a book.
There were a lot of odd deaths in the UK. Certainly a long line of odd coincidences.
I’m thinking the jongs, amins and pots of this world, whilst clearly causing mayhem, probably had a less global impact (although not none)
Bin Laden a good shout, but was he not part of a wider ideology which he was the figurehead for? Putin is pretty much single-handedly Responsible for the war on Ukraine and everything that goes with it
Mao is a good shout
Either way, putin is a massive xxxx
